On Sept. 30, 2000, No. 6 Washington's Marques Tuiasosopo threw for 229 yards but tossed two picks, and Oregon's Maurice Morris ran for 152 yards as No. 20 Oregon surged to a 23-3 lead and held on for a 23-16 victory.
Oregon would reach as high as fifth in the AP poll that year before finishing seventh. Meanwhile, this was Washington's only blemish of the season. Having already beaten Miami, the Huskies would roll through the rest of the season and top Purdue in the Rose Bowl to finish third in the final polls. With a little less sloppiness in Eugene, they could have played for the national title. In terms of national significance, that was probably the most impactful game in the history of the UO-UW rivalry. Saturday's might be even bigger.
Seventh-ranked Washington hosts sixth-ranked Oregon in one of the season's biggest games to date. A win will burnish the résumé of one of the nation's best teams, and the game will shine a light on one of the nation's best gameday atmospheres. It will also provide a midday anchor for a Week 7 slate that features top-ranked teams early and far too much to keep track of late.
Here's everything you need to follow in this Seattle-centric Week 7:
Jump to a section:
Seattle showdown
Pivot point in South Bend
Another Miami slide?
Playmakers galore
G5's race for the NY6 | Best bets
Week 7 playlist | Small school showcase
The big one in Seattle
No. 8 Oregon Ducks at No. 7 Washington Huskies (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Oregon and Washington have enjoyed a combined 23 AP top-10 finishes. They've split the past 46 meetings. They've played in quite a few classics -- three of the past four in the series have been decided by five or fewer points. But Saturday, they will somehow meet as top-10 teams for the first time. And on paper, this matchup couldn't be more even.
Oregon's SP+ rating is 22.2, Washington's 21.9. They're 15-3 and 16-2, respectively, since their current head coaches (Dan Lanning and Kalen DeBoer) took over last year. Their offenses are very different: Oregon runs more frequently (and better) and is more likely to deploy tempo, while Washington is more explosive and likely to catch up when behind schedule. Still, their overwhelming quality is shared: They're first and fourth, respectively, in points per drive and second and first in success rate. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Ducks' and Huskies' combined 97.6 points per game average is the highest for a matchup of 5-0 (or better) teams since 2008 Oklahoma State-Missouri.
Both offenses have some pretty big, but different, matchup advantages.
1. Oregon's run game vs. Washington's run defense
Oregon ranks first in both rushing success rate and rushing marginal explosiveness, my measure of the magnitude of your successful plays (adjusted for down, distance and field position). The Ducks gain at least four yards on 63% of their carries (first) and get stuffed at or behind the line just 14% of the time (26th). Bucky Irving and Jordan James are averaging a combined 138 yards per game at 8.2 yards per carry.
It's problematic, then, that defending the run has been a relative weakness for Washington. The Huskies are 50th in rushing success rate allowed -- they make few run stuffs (13.5%, 117th nationally) and give up at least four yards 51% of the time (107th).
These strengths and weaknesses have trickle-down effects. On third downs, Oregon requires an average of just 5.7 yards (fifth) and converts 51% of the time (10th). Washington's poor disruption has led to rankings of 129th in average third-down distance (5.9 yards) and 103rd in third-down conversion rate allowed (42.5%). A good run game is a red zone boon, so you can piece together the effects this has there, too: Oregon's offense ranks 19th in red zone touchdown rate (75%), Washington's defense 114th (73%).
If you can actually slow the run down to some degree, you still have to stop Oregon's horizontal passing game: The Ducks throw 44% of their passes at or behind the line, easily the most in the country. Irving has caught 15 of these passes for 107 yards, and they stretch defenses out enough for wideout Troy Franklin to occasionally strike deep: He has caught five of nine passes thrown his way 20 or more yards downfield for 227 yards and three scores.
To the extent that Washington defenders make run stuffs, it's the linemen who do it -- Bralen Trice has five, and Tuli Letuligasenoa and Jacob Bandes each have four. There's no real magic trick to slowing down the Ducks; these guys will have to win some individual battles, and when they do force Oregon off-schedule, Washington absolutely must take advantage. Sounds easy, right?
Oregon's Bo Nix leans on the shorter passes as frequently and efficiently as any quarterback, while counterpart Michael Penix Jr. is far more accurate and willing in the 10- to 20-yard range. And he loves those passes up the seams.
2. Michael Penix Jr. vs. a passive Oregon secondary
Oregon's defense has been more effective than Washington's, albeit against a worse set of offenses (per SP+). The Ducks rank eighth in points allowed per drive, but they also rank 74th in completion rate allowed (61%), 76th in interception rate (2.5%) and 95th in the percentage of passes contested by a defender (31%). Opposing quarterbacks have quite a bit of time to throw (2.9 seconds on average, 119th) despite the Ducks blitzing pretty constantly (32% of dropbacks, 31st).
Of course, opponents don't really find a point to blitzing Penix. He has been blitzed just 21% of the time (15th lowest), pressured just 22% (sixth) and sacked 1.5% (fourth). He completes 74% of his passes (fifth), 66% of those completions go for first downs (fifth) and he averages 11.2 yards per dropback (second). Ridiculous numbers, all.
Two weeks ago, Arizona attempted what NFL defenses have tried with Patrick Mahomes, trying desperately to take away explosive plays and make Penix settle for shorter passes. He completed 75% of his passes, and Washington averaged 7.2 yards per play and punted just twice. Arizona recovered a fumble at its 5-yard line -- a benefit of a bend-don't-break approach, I guess -- and did just enough on offense to stay within 31-24. But UW was still mostly awesome on offense.
A receiver averaging 13.3 yards per catch is good. Washington's star trio averages 13.3 yards per target. Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan have caught 78 of 104 passes for 1,387 yards (17.8 per catch) and 11 touchdowns. No. 4 WR Germie Bernard has 17 catches for 231 yards, while tight end Jack Westover has four touchdown receptions. The run game's job is to simply keep everything on schedule, and it does it well: UW ranks third in rushing success rate.
The key might be the matchup in the slot. Oregon's corners have been solid overall -- among them, Khyree Jackson, Jahlil Florence and Dontae Manning have allowed just 11-for-31 passing, albeit at 14.8 yards per completion -- but slot corner Tysheem Johnson has allowed completions on 11 of 14 passes with two touchdowns. McMillan is one of the best slot men in the country, and he's probable for Saturday after missing time with injury. The Ducks limit big plays reasonably well, but no one completely limits Washington's explosiveness, and counting on red zone turnovers isn't the most fruitful strategy.
Current line: UW -3 | SP+ projection: UW by 2.2 | FPI projection: UO by 1.8
Read more: Inside Washington's electric offense
A pivotal point in South Bend
No. 10 USC Trojans at No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7:30 p.m., NBC)
USC-Notre Dame games have been defining seasons in Los Angeles and South Bend since the late 1920s, so the fact that this game will bring that same energy shouldn't be a surprise. But this season, it's big for both teams for very different reasons.
For USC, everything's still on the table. Lincoln Riley's Trojans are 6-0 but followed three easy wins with three substandard ones. They underachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 17.0 points per game against Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona, and even the brilliant USC offense made sloppy mistakes against the Wildcats in an eventual overtime win.
The Trojans are still first in offensive SP+ and are in the top five in points per drive, success rate and seemingly every other stat I track. They still have Caleb Williams, after all. (They might get star receiver and return man Zachariah Branch back from injury this week, too.) But the defense, though technically improved, only ranks 73rd in points per drive and 61st in defensive SP+. It's a sieve against the run, too.
Over the next six weeks, USC will face five teams ranked in the SP+ top 25. Four of these games are projected within six points, and SP+ gives them an equal chance of going either 12-0 or 7-5: 3%. That's a wide range, and you don't want to head into games with Utah, Washington and Oregon having already used your mulligan.
Notre Dame is out of mulligans. After Week 4's heartbreaker against Ohio State, Marcus Freeman's Fighting Irish eked out a last-minute win at Duke, then went to Louisville and lost by 13. The defense is still mostly fine -- the Irish secondary is easily the best USC has faced to date, especially with safety Thomas Harper returning from concussion protocol -- but a once-promising offense has disintegrated. Over their first four games, the Irish averaged 46 points and 3.8 gains per game of 30-plus yards. Since then: 18.3 points and 1.0 gains of 30-plus. Opposing defenses improved and returns rapidly diminished for Irish quarterback Sam Hartman.
With a still-solid run game, the Irish have the potential to play a ball-control game that victimizes USC's awful run defense, controls the ball and the clock and limits USC's possessions. Irish cornerback Benjamin Morrison and the team's excellent secondary could potentially come up with just enough stops to make that work.
They better, anyway. The schedule eases up in November, and SP+ still projects 9-3 as Notre Dame's most likely record, but 10-2 is probably required for a cushy bowl bid and a general feeling of progress in Freeman's second season. There was all sorts of optimism three weeks ago, but the tenor has shifted quickly.
Current line: Irish -3 | SP+ projection: Irish by 0.4 | FPI projection: Irish by 4.4
Here comes the Miami hangover?
No. 25 Miami Hurricanes at No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (7:30 p.m., ABC)
In 2013, Miami won its first six games of the season to move to seventh in the AP poll. It was the Hurricanes' highest ranking since 2005, and it set up the biggest FSU-Miami game in years. FSU scored 34 of the game's final 41 points to win easily. Reeling following the disappointment, Miami lost as a favorite to Virginia Tech, then to Duke. In 2014 and 2016, losses to the Seminoles prompted four-game losing streaks.
In 2017, unbeaten and ranked second, Miami lost to underdog Pitt, then got stomped by Clemson in the ACC championship game and fell to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl. In 2018, the Canes lost to underdog Virginia, then lost as favorites to Boston College and Duke as part of a four-game losing streak.
On it went. In 2019, Miami lost as a three-touchdown favorite to Florida International, then lost as the favorite against Duke and Louisiana Tech too. In 2021, it lost at home to underdog Michigan State, then lost its next two against FBS opponents. In 2022, the Hurricanes got their doors blown off -- as 25.5-point favorites! -- by Middle Tennessee, then failed to cover in six straight and slowly crashed to 5-7.
It's one of college football's most reliable trends: No one lets an unexpected and/or devastating loss linger longer than the ever-fragile Miami Hurricanes. What happens now that they've suffered what Dan Le Batard called "the worst loss in program history," a shocking and completely self-inflicted 23-20 defeat to Georgia Tech?
If we ignore all context, the Canes and North Carolina are wonderfully even. They are 17th and 18th, respectively, in SP+, which projects the home Tar Heels as 2-point favorites, and both could have major roles to play in the ACC title race. UNC's passing game, led by future first-rounder Drake Maye, is impeccable, but barring the last two plays Saturday night, so is Miami's pass defense. An efficient Miami run game, meanwhile, could punish a suspect UNC defensive front, and while UM quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was surprisingly poor Saturday -- three interceptions and a season-low 7.5 yards per dropback -- he's still 10th in Total QBR, barely behind the ninth-place Maye. If this were a normal team, we'd be talking about bounce-back opportunities and a dynamite quarterback matchup. But for better and often worse, Miami can never be normal.
UNC is up to 12th in the AP poll and ninth in ESPN's Strength of Record measure. The Tar Heels should be favored in six of their past seven games. They could be on the cusp of something big, but first they have to dispose of a wounded opponent, one that could respond with vigor after last week's embarrassment ... but one that usually mails it in for a little while.
Current line: UNC -3.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 2.0 | FPI projection: UNC by 4.3
Tight games and playmakers
Texas A&M Aggies at No. 19 Tennessee Volunteers (3:30 p.m., CBS)
No. 18 UCLA Bruins at No. 15 Oregon State Beavers (8 p.m., Fox)
Missouri Tigers at No. 24 Kentucky Wildcats (7:30 p.m., SECN)
The afternoon and evening slates are awfully crowded, but this trio of games should command some of your attention, both because they're awesome and potentially close matchups and because they feature a number of fantastic playmakers.
In Knoxville, it's Ainias Smith vs. Jaylen Wright. Smith is making the most of his fifth season at Texas A&M. Over the last four games, he's caught 20 passes for 364 yards with punt returns of 43, 44, 46 and 76 yards. He's always been good, but he's reached transcendence over the past month. He's stealing targets from star receiver Evan Stewart, but he's doing all sorts of damage with them.
Wright is giving Tennessee's Joe Milton III some margin for error in the backfield. He's rushed for at least 115 yards in three games, and he's averaging 7.1 yards per carry. The Vols are 4-1 thanks primarily to defense and the run game, which isn't quite what we're used to saying about Josh Heupel's team.
Both Smith and Wright will be going up against excellent units in the Tennessee pass defense and A&M run defense. A loss for either team would be catastrophic for any lingering division title hopes.
Current line: Vols -3 | SP+ projection: Vols by 2.1 | FPI projection: Vols by 2.5
In Corvallis, it's J. Michael Sturdivant vs. Anthony Gould. UCLA-Oregon State gives us a fun quarterback matchup between all-or-nothing Bruins freshman Dante Moore and veteran DJ Uiagalelei. Each benefit from having both stellar run games and standout field-stretchers out wide.
For Moore, Sturdivant, a Cal transfer, is averaging 20.9 yards per catch. For Uiagalelei, Gould is averaging 17.8 yards per catch and went for seven catches and 117 yards in last week's track-meet win over Cal. Fireworks are exceedingly possible in this game.
Current line: OSU -3.5 (down from -5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 1.3 | FPI projection: OSU by 7.7
In Lexington, it's Luther Burden III vs. Ray Davis. Burden is the nation's leading receiver and the primary impetus for Mizzou's offensive turnaround. He's on pace for 1,700 receiving yards, and he's hit 140 or more in three straight games. He could punish Kentucky's vulnerable pass defense ... just as Davis could punish a suddenly perilous Missouri run defense. Even after a tough game in Athens, he's still on pace for 1,400 rushing yards at 7.2 yards per carry.
Missouri and Kentucky both suffered setbacks last week -- Mizzou lost a track meet to LSU at home, while Kentucky got crushed by Georgia -- but the winner is still positioned for a huge season.
Current line: UK -2.5 | SP+ projection: UK by 2.6 | FPI projection: UK by 2.1
The G5 race comes into focus
Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons (7 p.m., CBSSN)
Tulane Green Wave at Memphis Tigers (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
Just in case the slate wasn't loaded enough, you've also got two games that will help establish the pecking order for the Group of Five's New Year's Six bowl slot. Air Force is unbeaten and looking fantastic -- it's second in points per drive and 18th in points allowed per drive -- but Wyoming's got wins over Texas Tech, Appalachian State and Fresno State and, in its only road game, had Texas briefly tied in the fourth quarter before succumbing to a late run.
The battle-tested Cowboys are easily the best team the host Falcons have faced. Wyoming won a 17-14 rock fight in Laramie last year, but quarterback Zac Larrier is piloting one hell of an Air Force attack at the moment.
Current line: AFA -10.5 (up from -9.5) | SP+ projection: AFA by 10.9 | FPI projection: AFA by 9.2
Air Force might need to lose for this G5 race to really get going, as it's hard to imagine a 13-0 Falcons team with wins over Wyoming, Boise State and perhaps Fresno State in the MWC championship game getting snubbed. But if the Falcons do fall, the winner of Tulane-Memphis will be ready to pounce. (So will Wyoming, of course, if the Cowboys are the one to do the deed.)
Memphis played well in a tight loss to Missouri, then beat Boise State two weeks ago to move to 4-1. Tulane's got the same record, falling to Ole Miss but beating four others by an average of 19 points. Memphis' Seth Henigan has an outside shot at 4,000 passing yards, and when quarterback Michael Pratt is in the lineup, Tulane has scored at least 27 points in 11 straight games. These teams have faced similar schedules and produced similar results, and SP+ projects an almost perfect tossup. I can't wait to see how Memphis wins by 0.02 points.
Current line: Tulane -4.5 (up from -3) | SP+ projection: Memphis by 0.02 | FPI projection: Tulane by 1.2
My favorite bets
The best bets section of this column is basically turning into a "gambling is bad" PSA. In Weeks 4-5, I had five of 10 picks flip from a win to a loss or tie in the last 90 seconds. In Week 6, I suffered two incredible bad beats. I lost "Mizzou +5.5" when LSU scored on a pick-six in the final 30 seconds, and I lost an easy "USC-Arizona under 72" win when USC botched a short, last-second field goal and had to win in OT (after 28 more points had been scored).
I should have gone 3-2 but went 1-4 instead. I should be around 60-65% for the year, but I'm 13-15-2 (47%). Never gamble. Anyway, here are five surefire best bets!
Syracuse at Florida State (under 56 points) (noon, ABC). SP+ projection: 53.2 points. Injuries have wrecked a promising Syracuse offense: In its first three games, it overachieved SP+ offensive projections by 12.3 points per game, and in its last three it's underachieved by 11.4. FSU will score plenty, but it would be a bit of a surprise if the Orange topped 14-17.
Toledo at Ball State (over 47.5 points) (2 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: 54.1 points. I had Toledo as a Best Bet candidate until the line moved from -15.5 to -17, but I think the point total is still low. Rain is expected in Muncie, but that might not hurt Toledo's excellent run game much. Toledo games have hit the over five of six times, and there's a healthy cushion between line and projection.
Miami (Ohio) (-8.5) at Western Michigan (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: Miami by 14.1. Miami's offense has underachieved a bit since star receiver Gage Larvadain got hurt, but the Redhawks have made up for that on defense. They held Kent State and Bowling Green to a combined three points! WMU's offense isn't any better than BGSU's, and now that the line has dropped from -9.5 to -8.5, it's time to pounce.
Troy (-4.5) at Army (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). SP+ projection: Troy by 10.3. I liked this more at Troy -3.5, but the Trojans have ignited over the last two weeks, suddenly beating SP+ projections by an average of 21.4 points. Last year's 10-9 rock fight gives me pause, but I like the Trojans enough to think that this two-week sample means something.
UNLV (-9.5) at Nevada (5 p.m., MW Video). SP+ projection: UNLV by 9.7. The Random Rivalry Nonsense aspect of this one makes me nervous, but UNLV is one of four teams still unbeaten against the spread. The Rebels have overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 8.7 points in every game, too.
Week 7 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Fresno State at Utah State (8 p.m., CBSSN). Fresno State fell from the ranks of the unbeatens last week and needs this one to stay properly positioned in the MWC race. USU, meanwhile, has won two in a row with one of the nation's more effective tempo offenses.
Current line: Fresno -7 | SP+ projection: Fresno by 7.8 | FPI projection: Fresno by 4.6
Stanford at Colorado (10 p.m., ESPN). Colorado is addicted to drama -- four of the Buffaloes' six games have been decided by one score -- but if there's a drama-free win left on the schedule, it's this one: Stanford's lost four in a row and fallen to 97th in SP+.
Current line: CU -11 | SP+ projection: CU by 8.9 | FPI projection: CU by 12.7 Early Saturday
No. 1 Georgia at Vanderbilt (noon, CBS), Indiana at No. 2 Michigan (noon, Fox), No. 3 Ohio State at Purdue (noon, Peacock) and Syracuse at No. 4 Florida State (noon, ABC). I like that these games are all kicking at the same time because among the four, it's likely only one at most will be particularly interesting. The top four teams are favored by an average of nearly 26 points.
SP+ and FPI suggest the interesting one might be FSU-Syracuse, but they're not taking into account just how much injuries have wrecked Syracuse of late. Maybe Ohio State-Purdue? The Boilermakers have exceeded projections for two straight weeks, and, well, they have a history against the Buckeyes in West Lafayette.
Current lines: UGA -31.5, Michigan -34, Ohio State -20, FSU -17.5
SP+ projections: UGA by 28.1, Michigan by 36.5, Ohio State by 21.1, FSU by 12.1
FPI projections: UGA by 32.8, Michigan by 29.8, Ohio State by 24.7, FSU by 13.7
Arkansas at No. 11 Alabama (noon, ESPN). Arkansas is 2-4 and has only a 25% chance of bowl eligibility, per SP+. The Hogs fought well on the road against Ole Miss and LSU, and their run defense has some spice. But Bama appears to be finding itself a bit. I'll be impressed if this one's close.
Current line: Bama -19.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 19.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 20.1
Georgia Southern at James Madison (noon, ESPN2). The sportsbooks are struggling to figure out how good Georgia Southern is -- the 4-1 Eagles are beating the spread by an average of 12.5 points per game, and if they hit that mark Saturday, they'll knock a strong JMU team from the unbeatens list. Just like they did last year.
Current line: JMU -3.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 8.9 | FPI projection: JMU by 1.0
Saturday afternoon
Iowa at Wisconsin (4 p.m., Fox). At this point, it's hard to imagine anyone but Iowa or Wisconsin winning the Big Ten West. Iowa needs it more -- Wisconsin's up a game in the loss column -- and it will be interesting to see how the new-look Badgers offense deals with one of the best defenses in the country. (There's not much interesting to say about Iowa's offense.)
Current line: Badgers -9.5 | SP+ projection: Badgers by 9.7 | FPI projection: UW by 6.2
No. 23 Kansas at Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m., FS1). After last week's upset win over Kansas State, OSU has won eight of its last nine games as a home underdog. Can the Jayhawks bust that streak, likely with backup quarterback Jason Bean?
Current line: Kansas -4.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 0.5 | FPI projection: Kansas by 0.6
Florida at South Carolina (3:30 p.m., SECN). This is a "strength vs. weakness" game. Florida's efficient offense could find lots of advantages against South Carolina's dreadfully inefficient D, but the Gators' propensity for giving up big plays could be an issue against the Spencer Rattler-to-Xavier Legette combination.
Current line: Gamecocks -2 | SP+ projection: Gators by 1.0 | FPI projection: Gamecocks by 2.9
UMass at No. 6 Penn State (3:30 p.m., BTN). Penn State isn't creating many big plays, but Don Brown's blitz-happy UMass defense is prone to really, really big glitches. We might not be talking about PSU's big-play issues by Sunday.
Current line: PSU -42 | SP+ projection: PSU by 38.0 | FPI projection: PSU by 47.2
Saturday evening
Kansas State at Texas Tech (7 p.m., FS1). SP+ still thinks these are the two best Big 12 teams outside of OU and Texas. The winner of this one might have the best shot at a dark horse title game run. Tech is certainly the more in-form of the two teams.
Current line: Tech -1 | SP+ projection: Tech by 1.3 | FPI projection: Tech by 0.1
Arizona at No. 19 Washington State (7 p.m., Pac-12). Arizona rose from 49th to 39th in SP+ after last week's loss to USC, and young QB Noah Fifita is looking great. But Wazzu's already beaten Wisconsin and Oregon State at home, and the Cougs need this one to stay within reach in the Pac-12 race.
Current line: Wazzu -8.5 | SP+ projection: Wazzu by 7.7 | FPI projection: Wazzu by 4.7
Auburn at No. 22 LSU (7 p.m., ESPN). Jayden Daniels almost single-handedly carried LSU to victory at Missouri last week -- OK, with help from Logan Diggs and Malik Nabers, too -- but the wobbly LSU defense could struggle against a uniquely run-heavy Auburn attack. Can LSU put this one away and avoid a fourth straight down-to-the-wire game?
Current line: LSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 8.1 | FPI projection: LSU by 10.5
NC State at No. 17 Duke (8 p.m., ACCN). Duke quarterback Riley Leonard is day-to-day after that nasty ankle injury he suffered against Notre Dame. With a healthy Leonard, the Blue Devils would have a clear advantage. Without him? We'll see.
Current line: Duke -3.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 9.6 | FPI projection: Duke by 11.4
No. 14 Louisville at Pitt (6:30 p.m., The CW). Louisville is overachieving against SP+ projections by 15.1 points per game at home and underachieving by 8.0 away from home. Then again, Pitt has underachieved against projections in every game this year. Can handing the reins to quarterback Christian Veilleux arrest that trend?
Current line: Louisville -10 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 8.7 | FPI projection: Louisville by 8.2
Late Saturday
San Diego State at Hawaii (11 p.m., CBSSN). SDSU has lost four in a row for the first time in five years and probably can't slip up in this one if it wants to keep a 13-year streak of .500-or-better finishes intact. Hawaii, meanwhile, has been pretty feisty at home and can hit you with some big plays.
Current line: SDSU -5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 3.8 | FPI projection: Hawaii by 1.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
D3: No. 7 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 4 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). UWW played five straight ranked opponents, and the fifth one finally got them -- the Warhawks fell to Wisconsin-La Crosse via last-second field goal last week. Next up? A ranked opponent! And a good one. UWRF has won seven in a row to enter the D3 top five. SP+ projection: UWRF by 11.2.
D2: No. 1 Ferris State at No. 7 Grand Valley State (3 p.m., FloSports). It's Anchor-Bone Classic time! GVSU lost to Colorado Mines to start the season, but SP+ still thinks the Lakers are the only team that could touch the Bulldogs, the two-time defending national champs. The FSU offense is always must-watch, but GVSU quarterback Cade Peterson is quite a gunslinger, too. SP+ projection: Ferris State by 2.9.
FCS: No. 10 Montana at No. 3 Idaho (10:30 p.m., ESPN2). It's the Kibbie Dome on ESPN2!! Idaho has won 12 of its last 16 under second-year head coach Jason Eck and has already stomped Nevada and ended a long Sacramento State regular-season winning streak this year. Montana is pulling an Alabama -- slowly finding its footing after a frustrating early upset. SP+ projection: Idaho by 3.6.