<
>

Bowl projections after Week 6: Fallout from Texas' loss to Oklahoma

Can Jared Verse and the Seminoles take advantage of Texas' loss and move into our projected playoff matchups? Michael Chang/Getty Images

Oklahoma shook up the top four by beating Texas, while Georgia and Michigan posted their most impressive wins of the season to solidify their positions in our projected playoff pairings.

With the Longhorns slipping, who takes their place? Florida State, which cruised past Virginia Tech? Ohio State, after handing Maryland its first loss of the season? Penn State? Oregon? The Sooners?

Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are here to sort it out, looking at the Week 6 results up and down the college football scoreboard to make their projections for all 43 bowl matchups, plus their takes on the College Football Playoff picture, the Group of 5 teams to watch and the game they'd be most excited to see.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship presented by AT&T
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Washington
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Washington

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Florida State

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: The big change this week is that Texas is back outside the playoff picture after losing to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Can the Longhorns get back in? Sure. You can never safely eliminate a one-loss Power 5 team, but their margin for error is gone. The Sooners are now the default Big 12 team up for consideration but ended up just on the outside this week.

There remains no reason to move Georgia out of the top spot with its 23-game winning streak. Washington doesn't move coming out of its bye week and headed into this week's massive game against Oregon. And Michigan still looks like the most deserving of the three strong Big Ten candidates, alongside Ohio State and Penn State.

It's fair to consider that Florida State might not be as good as Ohio State, Penn State or Oklahoma, but the Seminoles have the easiest (but still not easy) path to remaining undefeated, which is why they move up in the No. 4 spot.

Schlabach: Oklahoma's victory over Texas in the Red River Rivalry game knocks the Longhorns out of the CFP for now. Of course, the Longhorns could run the table in the regular season and take down the Sooners in a rematch in the Big 12 championship game and get right back into the top four. For that to happen, Texas will have to cut down its mistakes and figure out how to score in the red zone. The Horns have scored just 11 touchdowns in 24 trips inside opponents' 20-yard line, which ranks 122nd in the FBS.

Georgia moves back into the No. 1 spot after demolishing Kentucky 51-13 at home Saturday night. It was the complete effort Kirby Smart had been waiting for. The Bulldogs scored a touchdown on their opening possession and never looked back. Quarterback Carson Beck threw for a career-high 389 yards with four touchdowns. Tight end Brock Bowers had seven catches for 132 yards with one score, his third straight game with at least 100 receiving yards. Georgia's defense held Kentucky to 183 yards of offense, including 55 rushing.

Michigan was just as impressive in a 52-10 rout of Minnesota on the road. The Wolverines haven't played murderers' row in starting 6-0, but this was the first time this season they allowed more than seven points in a game. Washington and Oregon were both off this weekend; I'm sticking with the Huskies as my No. 3 team. Florida State grabs the fourth spot after taking down Virginia Tech 39-17 at home. Ohio State was also considered for the last spot.


New Year's Six

Friday, Dec. 29

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. USC
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Texas

Saturday, Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 1

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Oregon vs. Air Force


Favorite matchups

Bonagura: The possibility of Lincoln Riley and USC going against Oklahoma in a New Year's Six bowl is the obvious choice for me this week. Oklahoma fans nearly had a perfect day Saturday when the Trojans almost lost their unbeaten season on the same day as a Sooners Red River win. Almost.

Schlabach: Alabama and Oklahoma are scheduled to play in Norman, Oklahoma, in 2024 when the Sooners join the SEC. I don't think fans from either side would be upset about getting a preview in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The Crimson Tide were left for dead after their home loss to Texas in Week 2, but it seems coach Nick Saban has once again righted the ship with four straight victories. Quarterback Jalen Milroe threw for 321 yards with three touchdowns in a 26-20 victory at Texas A&M on Saturday. Alabama's defense would be a great test for Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel, and OU's defense is very stout in coach Brent Venables' second season.


Bowl season

Saturday, Dec. 16

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Troy
Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall

Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UAB vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. South Florida

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Arizona vs. Fresno State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Colorado vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Utah vs. Wyoming

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCF vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Colorado

Monday, Dec. 18

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Army vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: New Mexico State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: New Mexico State vs. Tulsa

Thursday, Dec. 21

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Florida vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 22

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Auburn vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Army vs. Georgia Tech

Saturday, Dec. 23

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Tulane

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tulsa vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: Troy vs. Central Michigan

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Wake Forest
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Texas State

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Utah State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas State vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. UCLA

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: SMU vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Rice vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rice vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: TCU vs. Cal

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. BYU
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Texas Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: NC State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Memphis

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Florida

Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: Duke vs. Utah
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Oregon State

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: BYU vs. LSU


Group of 5 team to watch

Bonagura: It's time to start paying attention to Air Force. The Falcons are one of only three undefeated Group of 5 teams -- Liberty and James Madison are the others -- and have been dominant in Mountain West wins over Utah State, San Jose State and San Diego State. They host Wyoming, which just beat Fresno State, next week in what should be one of the games of the season in the MWC.

Schlabach: I agree with Kyle that Air Force is flying under the national radar, which is why I had the Falcons as my Group of 5 team in the New Year's Six this week. But what about Wyoming? The Cowboys upset Texas Tech 35-33 in two overtimes in their opener, then had Texas on the ropes in Austin two weeks later. The score was tied 10-10 entering the fourth quarter before the Longhorns scored 21 straight points for a 31-10 win. Wyoming then had a solid victory over Appalachian State and ended the second-longest winning streak in the FBS when it beat Fresno State 24-19 this past weekend. Saturday's game at Air Force will go a long way in deciding which team wins the Mountain West -- and perhaps stays in the hunt for an NY6 spot.


Thursday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: NC State vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisville vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Miami vs. West Virginia

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Kansas vs. USC

Friday, Dec. 29

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Florida
Schlabach: Duke vs. Texas A&M

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Washington State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Kentucky

Saturday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Missouri

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Ohio vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. LSU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ole Miss

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee