It's hard to overstate the stakes of No. 2 Ohio State's game at No. 3 Michigan on Saturday.
On the field, the game will help determine the potential Big Ten champion and effectively serve as a College Football Playoff elimination game. Off the field, this 119th meeting between the teams offers perhaps the most controversial backdrop yet. This is the 13th time the programs have met with both in the AP top 5, but it's hard to imagine similar circumstances.
Ohio State enters Ann Arbor facing a referendum on the program's toughness, as the Buckeyes' consecutive losses to the Wolverines have come after getting crushed by a combined 56-17 in the second half. With those late folds have come questions about the program's grit, which clearly resonated at Ohio State if you consider the tone of coach Ryan Day's postgame comments after winning at Notre Dame.
Day is a remarkable 40-0 against Big Ten programs that are not Michigan, and 1-2 against the Wolverines. They account for one-third of his career losses, as he's 56-6 as a head coach.
Michigan enters with its entire program under the microscope, as coach Jim Harbaugh will be missing his sixth game of the season, the absences tied to a pair of unrelated suspensions that bookended the season.
Interim coach Sherrone Moore will again be on the sideline as Michigan serves out the rest of the Big Ten-mandated punishment for Harbaugh, which called for him missing the final three games of the regular season.
Michigan is under additional NCAA investigation for an advanced scouting scheme using electronics, which has swallowed up much of oxygen of the past month of the college football season. It was run by a former staffer named Connor Stalions, and the Big Ten deemed it "extensive," "impermissible" and "extraordinary." His resignation is one of four high-profile Michigan staff departures under unflattering circumstances in the past year.
The tumult off the field has yet to tangibly transfer onto it, as Michigan has been a paragon of efficiency. It has the nation's top scoring defense (9.0 ppg) and No. 11 scoring offense (38.3 ppg), despite five different head coaches being on the sideline.
A win for Michigan offers a path to the program's first national title since 1997. A loss would mean the end of the regular season and the fast-forwarding of the decision making surrounding the future of Harbaugh, who openly flirted with the NFL the past two seasons.
Harbaugh faces additional NCAA scrutiny from the Stalions case, which is expected to include an additional potential suspension next year for head coach responsibility. (Harbaugh was already expected to be suspended to start next season because of the NCAA investigation into Michigan's alleged dead period recruiting violations.)
The only certainty is that it will be a long winter in the losing team's football building.
Who will win? A majority of the coaches and assistants we polled picked Michigan, a change from the past two years. A poll of six NFL scouts yielded an even split -- three for Ohio State and three for Michigan. Few felt strongly about those picks or saw a large scoring gap.
What will matter on the field? The coaches and scouts broke things down for an edition of The Game that promises to be unlike any other in the rivalry's storied history.
Who has more talent?
Conversations with NFL scouts yielded an interesting result. Both Ohio State and Michigan have about 14 players who will likely be drafted this season, pending early entry decisions. Each also has three or four free agent-type players who could end up being late-round picks.
Who has more talent depends on how you look at it. Scouts see Ohio State's draft class as having more star power, as they could have three players picked before the first Michigan player. (This depends on both the potential draft declaration of Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and the wide-ranging views of him as an NFL prospect.)
"I think Ohio State has more high-end talent, but Michigan is a better team," said one scout.
Multiple scouts predicted that it's unlikely, as of now, that Michigan will have a player drafted in the first round. They also see as many as five potential top-50 players in 2025 among Michigan's underclassmen -- McCarthy, tight end Colston Loveland, defensive tackle Mason Graham, defensive tackle Kenneth Grant and corner Will Johnson. (Of that group, Johnson could be the highest pick, as he's already considered one of the country's top corners.)
As for the Buckeyes, they have more high-end, NFL-eligible talent this season, with receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. the most talented player and corner Denzel Burke, receiver Emeka Egbuka and edge JT Tuimoloau all slotted high.
For what it lacks in elite upperclassmen, Michigan has a slew of very good players, especially on defense. Tackle Kris Jenkins will likely be their highest pick, and there are a bunch of top-100 prospects with him on defense, including linebacker Junior Colson, safety Rod Moore and nickel Mike Sainristil.
Can Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy be the difference?
It's undisputed among coaches and scouts that Michigan has an advantage at quarterback. Opinions on him as a pro quarterback may vary, but he's a high-end college quarterback whose dual-threat ability could loom large on Saturday.
"He's a really, really good college quarterback on a really, really good football team," said one opposing coach.
The top end of Michigan's draft class this year could change if McCarthy, a junior, goes pro. There's always a need for quarterbacks, which tends to push them up draft boards. McCarthy will be an interesting prospect, as he throws with good anticipation and brings a run threat that can move the chains. What's his NFL ceiling?
"I'd be scared to take him in the first round right now and turn a franchise over to him," said a veteran scout. "He's undersized, got a slight and wiry frame and a small waist. ... He's in the Sam Howell and Matt Corral mold, in terms of being undersized. As of now, he projects as an average starter in the league."
McCarthy's pockets have collapsed a bit quicker on him in recent games, and Michigan's ability to contain OSU's edge rushers will be key on Saturday.
The Michigan offensive line likely won't have a player that goes in the top 100, as guard Zak Zinter is the team's best offensive line prospect. "The sum is greater than the parts," one scout said. "They are very well coached."
Can OSU QB Kyle McCord meet the moment?
There's not a lot of faith in Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord putting on a virtuoso performance to single-handedly lead the Buckeyes to a win (much like McCarthy did last year in Columbus with three passing touchdowns and another running).
McCord has been solid in his first year as a starter, but the opposing coaches have projected his best role on Saturday as playing mistake free and distributing the ball. Not trying to take over the game.
"If Ohio State had a proven quarterback like in the past few years, they would win going away," said an opposing coach.
Protecting McCord is the most important piece for the Buckeyes. The numbers indicate a strong debut season, as he has thrown 22 touchdowns and four interceptions while leading Ohio State to an 11-0 record, including the winning drive at Notre Dame.
"The quarterback does a good job of taking Marvin when he's there and going away from him when the defense is overplaying him," a different coach said. "He's not robotic and throwing picks because he's throwing at Marvin Harrison when he's double covered."
Along with protecting McCord, the offensive line building at least the threat of a run game will be crucial to opening things up downfield.
What is Ohio State's weakness?
All signs point to the offensive line. The Buckeyes likely won't have any players drafted on this line, as scouts have been disappointed in the play of guard prospect Donovan Jackson.
The Buckeyes had three players drafted off the offensive line last year, including tackles Paris Johnson Jr. (No. 6 overall) and Dawand Jones (No. 111 overall).
One opposing coach said OSU's offensive line has improved as the year has gone on, but noted that right tackle Josh Fryar is susceptible to speed rushes on the outside. "He was just big and cumbersome; we thought you could out-athlete him," said the coach.
Added another: "That's the worst set of tackles that they've had there in a long time."
One coach who played Ohio State recently remarked the line improved when the Buckeyes got tailback TreVeyon Henderson back from injury. In four games returning from injury, Henderson has scored five rushing touchdowns and averaged 6.7 yards per carry.
"I don't think the offensive line is as good as the Ohio State line the past few years," said another coach. "But I think they looked a lot worse when they didn't have Henderson. The running back can make the line."
What is Michigan's weakness?
Michigan won last year with a lethal heaping of explosive plays. It scored touchdowns on passes of 69, 75 and 45 yards through three quarters. It sealed the game in the fourth quarter with Donovan Edwards touchdown runs of 75 yards and 85 yards.
Ohio State controlled much of the first half and led 20-17 at halftime. But the indelible image of that game remains Edwards running free to make sure the game finished lopsided.
Does Michigan have the same explosion this year? That could determine the game. Coaches are skeptical. Michigan's offensive line, which under Moore's watch won the Joe Moore Award the past two years, is very good. But it's not the same dominant version of its predecessors.
"What offense can create the most explosive plays?" said one coach, identifying what will make the difference on Saturday. "They are going to be hard to come by. I don't think either offense is light years better than the other."
Tailback Blake Corum hasn't been as dominant this year coming off a knee injury that ended his 2022 season early and forced him to miss spring practice. He has averaged one fewer yard per carry -- 4.9 this year from 5.9 last year. Opposing coaches attribute that, in part, to Michigan's offensive line.
Edwards has been disappointing to scouts, as he has dropped from 7.1 yards per carry last year to 3.4 this year. They'd been intrigued by his explosiveness.
"If Michigan is going to win, it's going to look like an Iowa football game," said an opposing coach. "I don't think they are as explosive in the run game as they were a year ago. They obviously have really good players, but for whatever reason they haven't been as explosive in the run game.
"The advantage that Michigan still has is that they are rugged and physical. They can win a rock fight."
Coaches point out that Ohio State is much more prepared for a rock fight than in recent years. They've yet to give up more than 17 points this year, and they are top-three nationally in total defense and scoring defense (9.3).
Should we expect the unexpected?
Is neither team prepared for what they are seeing?
This factor may not determine the game but was an interesting point about reading too much into Big Ten results: One opposing coach pointed out that outside of Ohio State and Michigan, there really aren't a lot of scary outside skill players in the conference. Hardly any, really.
Penn State's wide receiving corps has been a weakness, and there are few other receivers around the league who are considered game-changers or top-100 NFL draft prospects. Ohio State's best out-of-conference game was against Notre Dame, which has pedestrian receivers. Michigan didn't play a power conference team outside league play.
Michigan has elite corners, as Sainristil is a sturdy tackler and projects as a longtime NFL player. Star sophomore corner Will Johnson could end up a future top-10 pick.
Ohio State's secondary is considered improved from last year, with Burke having a bounceback season and sophomore Sonny Styles emerging as a future star. (Styles isn't great in man coverage and neither is Josh Proctor, coaches say, which could lead to the Buckeyes playing a lot of zone.)
Ohio State is No. 1 nationally in passing yards allowed. Michigan is No. 2. But who have they had to cover?
"In the Big Ten right now, you have a bunch of average to below-average receivers," the coach said, naming Ohio State and Michigan as the exceptions. "The one thing that NIL has created, is there's chasms between the levels in the Big Ten right now. The bad teams are worse than they've been and the good teams are better.
"NIL has created more disparity than ever before, as you can pay guys to stay."
Can Marvin Harrison Jr. be the difference?
In short, yes. He's the best player on the field, a high-end Heisman Trophy candidate and the caliber of player who ties a defense in knots.
"He forces you to make decisions," said an opposing coach. "Are you are going to play split safety or single high? That impacts you a little bit in the run game. That's where they are dangerous. Henderson is so good, and with Egbuka back, he's not chopped liver. If you play split safety to one side and man to the other, Egbuka can beat you.
"The question is: Do you have the horses to take the other people away?"
Harrison entered the season as the top receiver in the sport and backed it up weekly, as he has caught 62 balls for 1,093 yards and 13 touchdowns. He averages 17.6 yards per reception, despite being the focal point of every defensive game plan.
"He's the whole package," said an opposing coach. "There's nothing he can't do well. When you watch him on coaches' film, you think he's a 5-10 freak athlete with the way he moves. Then you get on the field and realize he's 6-4, 200 pounds."
Coaches were complimentary of the way Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline moved Harrison around pre-snap.
"He was everywhere, at least three different spots," said an opposing coach. "It depends on what you are playing and how you are playing it. In all the big games, he's made big plays. If you can find ways to cloud him up, then they'll put him in the slot so you can't put something over the top. They find out what doing and and put him in the weak spot of that."