Rivalry Week is an endurance test. You start out on Thanksgiving, full of food and spirits, watching something chaotic and messy happen in the Egg Bowl. Then, rendered logy from leftovers, you get two mostly full days of plot lines and constant plot twists to track.
There are so many games over this long weekend that are important for different reasons -- College Football Playoff stakes, New Year's Six bowl stakes, conference races, bowl eligibility, just plain old hateful rivalry stuff -- and it's almost impossible to keep up. Allow me to help. Rivalry Week is a smorgasbord, and you've got to have a plan to get through it all. So here are all the different categories of stakes, and the games that matter most in each category.
From the College Football Playoff quest to Group of 5 title races to small-school playoffs, here's what you need to know about 55 different Rivalry Week games. We'll get through all this together. (The food and drink will help.)
Jump to a section:
An epic in Michigan | CFP plot twists
Conference races | New Year's Six races | Bowl eligibility games
For funsies | Best bets | Small school playoffs
The Game
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (Saturday, noon ET, Fox).
The Game is on quite a roll. This will be the 14th time Ohio State and Michigan have met as top-five teams, but four of those have come in the past eight seasons, including the past three in a row. After losing 15 of 16 to the Buckeyes, the Wolverines completely flipped the rivalry on its head with back-to-back dominant wins (and ensuing Big Ten titles) in 2021 and 2022; Ohio State has spent the past 52 weeks waiting to find out if its remodeled -- and, to date, incredibly effective defense -- is up for the test it failed so terribly last year.
Between that and the Michigan Spygate scandal, which dominated both message boards and recent headlines -- and will prevent Jim Harbaugh from being on the sidelines Saturday -- it feels like this is the most anticipated college football game in quite a while. And this one is always highly anticipated.
Here's a number I'm intrigued by: -6.3. That's the average amount that Michigan has underachieved against SP+ projections over the past three weeks. The Wolverines' standard has slipped a bit, and with players such as left tackles LaDarius Henderson and Myles Hinton battling injury (receiver Roman Wilson is expected back), any semblance of trends or momentum seems to favor Ohio State.
That said, SP+ has loved Michigan all season and still likes the Wolverines more than the oddsmakers do. Both teams have inevitably been saving stuff up for weeks to deploy specifically in The Game, and we'll probably see a slightly different version of each team than we've gotten recently. Can't wait.
Current line: Michigan -3 (down from -4 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 6.1 | FPI projection: Michigan by 1.8
A late-season CFP plot twist?
We head into the final weekend of the regular season with basically eight College Football Playoff hopefuls, five at 11-0 (Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, Washington) and three more at 10-1 (Oregon, Texas, Alabama). If Georgia, FSU, Washington and this weekend's Ohio State-Michigan winner win out, then this ends up being the most straightforward CFP race ever.
(And yes, Jordan Travis or no Jordan Travis, I'm confident that FSU gets in with two more wins. Florida and Louisville are good enough that, if the Noles suffer a serious post-Travis drop-off, they'll lose a game. If they win out, that means they're good enough to keep their spot in the CFP.)
There's still plenty of opportunity for misdirection, however. We'll get some dynamite conference championship matchups a week from now, and even without taking Travis' injury into account, SP+ suggests that there's a 68% chance that one of the six other contenders in action -- beyond Michigan and Ohio State -- falls this weekend.
(Note: For most of the sections below, we're listing games in chronological order. For a wild weekend like this, I figured that was most helpful.)
Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 7 Texas Longhorns (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC).
Joey McGuire's Red Raiders went 4-0 in one-score finishes last year, which drove a surprising 8-5 season and built hype for this fall. But the god of close games is fickle, and Tech started the season 1-3 with losses by a total of 17 points. November has brought yet another reversal of fortune: With wins over TCU, Kansas and UCF by a combined 11 points, Tech is back to 6-5.
The Red Raiders run the ball well, prevent big plays and go for it on fourth down. Texas should handle this one, especially at home, but as with the past two weeks, the Longhorns probably won't be able to simply cruise.
Current line: Horns -12.5 (down from -13.5) | SP+ projection: Horns by 17.7 | FPI projection: Horns by 16.3
No. 16 Oregon State Beavers at No. 6 Oregon Ducks (Friday, 8:30 p.m., Fox).
Oregon State came up two points short against Washington last Saturday night. The rainy loss eliminated the Beavers from Pac-12 contention, but they head into their regular-season finale with a different motivation: ruining Oregon's plans.
Oregon is one more win away from the Pac-12 championship game and a possible win-and-you're-in CFP scenario. Bo Nix is harboring Heisman dreams after throwing for a combined 816 yards and 10 touchdowns in the past two weeks. Just about everything is coming up Ducks at the moment, but OSU would absolutely love to spoil the party. The Beavers still have an incredible run game to account for, too.
Current line: Oregon -13.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Oregon by 11.2 | FPI projection: Oregon by 12.8
No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS).
The Iron Bowl feels like one of those "It's quiet ... too quiet" movie situations right now. Auburn's blowout loss to New Mexico State last week tamped down any upset buzz.
I'll say this, though: Auburn has a pass rush. Alabama's pass protection situation has gotten a smidgen better since the disastrous early season game against USF, but the Tide still rank 130th in sacks allowed per dropback and 115th in pressure rate allowed. If Auburn can avoid the long bombs that Bama's Jalen Milroe is so capable of delivering, and if the Tigers can generate a couple of chunk plays themselves (a massive issue this season), they can at least make this game weird and uncomfortable. They almost beat Georgia in between dire showings against Texas A&M and LSU earlier this season, after all, and they've either beaten or almost beaten Bama in four of the past five Iron Bowls at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Hugh Freeze has Bama-beating experience, too.
Current line: Bama -14.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 13.7 | FPI projection: Bama by 16.0
Washington State Cougars at No. 4 Washington Huskies (Saturday, 4 p.m., Fox).
Was Washington State's blowout of Colorado last week due more to a rebounding Wazzu or a collapsing Colorado? The answer will determine whether this is a game.
The Cougars had lost six in a row before the 56-14 win, and it wasn't just a "lose to a bunch of good teams because your conference is awesome" situation. They drastically underachieved against projections, too. Both the offense and defense looked like shells of their September selves. But Colorado provided them a get-right opportunity, and a far more confident Cougs team now travels to Seattle.
Washington's terribly nondisruptive defensive front is going to eventually keep them from winning a national title, but the team proved its maturity and perseverance again against Oregon State, and both the offense and secondary proved they can still make plays.
Current line: UW -16.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 16.5 | FPI projection: UW by 18.3
No. 5 Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN).
When you see the SP+ and FPI projections below, remember that they do not take injuries into account. This game was set up to be a pretty comfortable Seminoles win before Jordan Travis went down. But now both Travis and Florida starting QB Graham Mertz are out, and while both backups -- FSU's Tate Rodemaker and Florida's Max Brown -- looked strong filling in for their fallen compatriots last week, playing 60 full minutes in a fraught and intense environment is a different story.
Florida is playing to both make a bowl and ruin FSU's season, and the Gators proved in their narrow loss to Missouri that their upside remains pretty high. FSU will have to earn this one.
Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 16.1 | FPI projection: FSU by 13.1
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC).
Georgia appears to have shifted into gear in recent weeks, and while Georgia Tech is young, fun and explosive (and dramatically inconsistent), even if the Yellow Jackets land some punches, they probably won't land enough.
For Georgia, this one's about working on random, semi-costly glitches in run defense and trying to get the skill corps healthier -- it feels like WR Ladd McConkey and TE Brock Bowers have been healthy and on the field at the same time for about eight snaps this year. Tech is good enough to force the Dawgs to work up a sweat, and that's probably a good thing heading into the SEC championship game.
Current line: UGA -24 (up from -23) | SP+ projection: UGA by 29.2 | FPI projection: UGA by 22.2
Conference title scenarios
Entering the regular season's final weekend, we know who will be playing in the SEC, ACC, MAC and CUSA championships. But some of the other races feel as blurry as they did in September -- in the Big 12's case, maybe more so. Let's tiptoe through the Rivalry Week scenarios at play in the 10 conference races.
SEC
This one's set. Alabama and Georgia will meet in Atlanta for the third time in six years. (I guess it's the fourth time in seven if you count 2017's national title game.)
Pac-12
If favorites win in Eugene on Friday and in Seattle on Saturday, we'll get the Oregon-Washington rematch we expected the moment the first game between them ended. But Arizona's five-game winning streak means that if Oregon slips up to Oregon State, a Territorial Cup win would put the Wildcats in the title game.
No. 15 Arizona Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN). Current line: Arizona -12.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 19.6 | FPI projection: Arizona by 14.9
Big 12
The Big 12's tiebreaker rules are blurry enough that the conference felt compelled to offer up its own "Here's how each team makes the Big 12 Championship" scenarios list this week. The gist:
1. Texas has all but clinched a spot and will definitely get in with a Friday night win over Texas Tech.
2. If Texas wins, then Oklahoma State beats BYU on Saturday, the Cowboys are in. If OSU loses and Oklahoma wins, OU is in. If both Oklahoma teams lose and Kansas State wins, K-State is in.
3. If Texas loses Friday, the scenarios get all sorts of funky. I think Iowa State still has a chance in one? It's wild.
SP+ says there's a 67% chance that both Texas and OSU win and therefore remove any wild scenarios from the table. But that's a 1-in-3 chance of some level of nuttiness.
TCU Horned Frogs at No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners (Friday, noon, Fox). Current line: OU -12.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 10.6 | FPI projection: OU by 15.0
BYU Cougars at No. 20 Oklahoma State Cowboys (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC). Current line: OSU -17.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.9 | FPI projection: OSU by 13.3
Iowa State Cyclones at No. 19 Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox). Current line: K-State -11.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 11.7 | FPI projection: K-State by 15.1
Big Ten
Iowa has clinched the final Big Ten West title and will face the Ohio State-Michigan winner in Indianapolis. But first, the Hawkeyes have to engage in one last intra-division rock fight. The over/under Iowa-Nebraska at the moment: 26.5!! And you know you're not willing to bet the over.
No. 17 Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (Friday, noon, CBS). Current line: Nebraska -2 (up from -1) | SP+ projection: Iowa by 7.3 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.9
ACC
FSU and Louisville will meet in Charlotte next Saturday. Louisville will first host a reeling Kentucky team that has lost five of six.
Kentucky Wildcats at No. 10 Louisville Cardinals (Saturday, noon, ABC). Current line: Louisville -7 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 7.2 | FPI projection: Louisville by 9.4
Sun Belt
Troy will face either Coastal Carolina or Appalachian State in the SBC championship game. App State needs to beat Georgia Southern and have Coastal lose to JMU to get in. Otherwise, the Chants take the East division. SP+ gives App a 51% chance, Coastal 49%.
Troy Trojans at Southern Miss Eagles (Saturday, noon, ESPNU). Current line: Troy -16.5 | SP+ projection: Troy by 20.8 | FPI projection: Troy by 17.1
James Madison Dukes at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Current line: JMU -9.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 9.5 | FPI projection: JMU by 2.2
Georgia Southern Eagles at Appalachian State Mountaineers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPNU). Current line: App State -8.5 | SP+ projection: App State by 9.8 | FPI projection: App State by 8.1
MWC
If UNLV beats a smoking hot San Jose State, the Rebels and the winner of Boise State-Air Force are in. But if SJSU wins, everything gets messy. Like, "the old BCS formula computer rankings get involved" messy.
Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos (Friday, 4 p.m., FS1). Current line: BSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 1.4 | FPI projection: BSU by 7.0
San Jose State Spartans at UNLV Rebels (Saturday, 3 p.m., MW Video). Current line: UNLV -3.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 10.7 | FPI projection: UNLV by 2.9
Conference USA
Thanks to Jacksonville State's ineligibility, we already know the CUSA will pit Liberty against New Mexico State. Liberty heads to El Paso with dreams of finishing the regular season 12-0, and NMSU tries to stretch its winning streak to eight games against Rich Rodriguez and JSU.
No. 25 Liberty Flames at UTEP Miners (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN). Current line: Liberty -17 | SP+ projection: Liberty by 25.5 | FPI projection: Liberty by 16.1
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies (Saturday, 4 p.m., ESPN+). Current line: NMSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: NMSU by 3.8 | FPI projection: NMSU by 0.9
AAC
UTSA visits Tulane on Friday, and SMU hosts Navy on Saturday. If Tulane wins, it's SMU at Tulane for the AAC title. If UTSA wins, the Roadrunners make it and will play either SMU (if the Mustangs win) or Tulane again (if SMU loses). UTSA and SMU are the two hottest teams in the conference, but Tulane has continued to figure out ways to remain unbeaten in conference play.
UTSA Roadrunners at No. 23 Tulane Green Wave (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC). Current line: Tulane -3 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 1.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 3.4
Navy Midshipmen at SMU Mustangs (Saturday, noon, ESPN2). Current line: SMU -20 | SP+ projection: SMU by 24.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 28.1
MAC
Toledo and Miami (Ohio) have already clinched their respective divisions. Toledo is 10-1 and up to 35th in SP+, while Miami, which has lost only to Toledo since Week 1, ranks 19th in defensive SP+ and first in special teams SP+.
Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas (Friday, noon, ESPNU). Current line: Toledo -12 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 23.4 | FPI projection: Toledo by 12.3
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at Ball State Cardinals (Saturday, noon, CBSSN). Current line: Miami -6.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 18.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 9.9
The final run for the New Year's Six
With the CFP expanding to 12 teams next year, this is the last time teams will angle for New Year's Six bowl bids (instead of spots in the playoff). Still, snaring one is better than not snaring one, especially if, like No. 9 Missouri or No. 10 Louisville, you haven't been to a major bowl in a while.
We mentioned two NY6-relevant games -- TCU at OU and Kentucky at Louisville -- above. Here are four more.
No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN). MSU quarterback Will Rogers' return to the lineup helped the Bulldogs last week against Southern Miss, but only so much -- he went 12-for-27 -- and for all of its flaws, Ole Miss' defense typically manhandles mediocre offenses. Of course, the Rebels' own attack has slipped a bit lately, too, and reports of a Jaxson Dart injury have dropped the line a bit.
Current line: Ole Miss -10 (down from -11.5) | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 13.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 13.6
No. 9 Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (Friday, 4 p.m., CBS). Mizzou kept NY6 hopes intact with a 33-31 win over Florida last week. Head coach Eliah Drinkwitz expressed concern about the Tigers' overall energy reserves. Now they've got a short week to prepare for an Arkansas team that just learned struggling coach Sam Pittman won't be fired despite a 4-7 campaign. Does Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson end his career with one last strong performance?
Current line: Mizzou -7.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 8.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 8.1
No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans (Friday, 7:30 p.m., NBC). Michigan State has quietly won two of three games with a defense that has rounded into form. Penn State has mastered the art of slowly pulling away from offensively limited opponents, but the Spartans might have enough confidence to make this a game for a bit.
Current line: PSU -21 (up from -20) | SP+ projection: PSU by 27.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 25.9
Texas A&M Aggies at No. 14 LSU Tigers (Saturday, noon, ESPN). LSU has played against five teams ranked in the top 40 in offensive SP+ and allowed 43 points per game; that the Tigers won two of those five games is one of about 4,000 reasons why quarterback Jayden Daniels deserves the Heisman, but it's worth a reminder because, despite constant QB injury issues, A&M's offense ranks in the top 40.
Current line: LSU -11.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 7.2
Bowl eligibility
An underrated Rivalry Week plot line: a bunch of 5-6 teams making desperate lunges for bowl eligibility. We mentioned some above -- Mississippi State, TCU, Nebraska, CMU, BYU, Wazzu, Florida -- but there are lots of them this year.
Utah State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos (Friday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN). USU has rebounded from a 1-3 start, but the Aggies' hunt for a bowl requires a happy trip to Albuquerque. Current line: USU -6.5 (down from -8) | SP+ projection: USU by 5.3 | FPI projection: USU by 4.2
Houston Cougars at UCF Knights (Saturday, noon, FS1). Houston's out of bowl contention, but a rock-solid UCF team still needs this one to get to 6-6. Both motivation and quality favor the Knights. (Then again, when you're battling for space....) Current line: UCF -13.5 | SP+ projection: UCF by 14.5 | FPI projection: UCF by 14.9
Northern Illinois Huskies at Kent State Golden Flashes (Saturday, noon, ESPN+). Kent has stayed within 14 points of only one MAC opponent (and it was Akron, if that counts). NIU needs this one and will probably get it. Current line: NIU -19 | SP+ projection: NIU by 17.0 | FPI projection: NIU by 16.5
FAU Owls at Rice Owls (Saturday, 1 p.m., ESPN+). FAU is 4-7, but 5-6 Rice still has bowl hopes. Rice quarterback JT Daniels deserves to have his 17-year (or so) career end in the postseason. Current line: Rice -4 (down from -5) | SP+ projection: Rice by 3.7 | FPI projection: Rice by 6.8
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Syracuse Orange (Saturday, 2 p.m., The CW). Syracuse fired Dino Babers after falling from 4-0 to 5-6, but the Orange could still clinch a bowl under interim Nunzio Campanile. Current line: 'Cuse -3 | SP+ projection: 'Cuse by 8.8 | FPI projection: 'Cuse by 7.5
Georgia State Panthers at Old Dominion Monarchs (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN+). GSU has lost four in a row; thanks to a number of close losses, a solid ODU is still searching for a sixth win. Current line: ODU -3 | SP+ projection: ODU by 0.7 | FPI projection: ODU by 1.7
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+). UL has lost four of five to fall to 5-6, and five of the past six in this series have gone down to the wire. Current line: UL -13 (up from -12) | SP+ projection: UL by 22.1 | FPI projection: UL by 15.1
Virginia Tech Hokies at Virginia Cavaliers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ACCN). Quarterback Kyron Drones and Tech need this one to finish their bowl rally, but Virginia has been dramatic and unpredictable of late. Current line: Tech -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 8.2 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.7
Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., BTN). Northwestern is a miraculous 6-5 under David Braun and could prevent 5-6 Illinois from bowling with a slight upset. Current line: Illinois -5.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: Illinois by 0.8 | FPI projection: Illinois by 3.3
Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., FS1). Wisconsin could move to 7-5 by simply getting out of the way of the free-falling (and 5-6) Gophers. Current line: Wisconsin -2 | SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 6.6 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 3.1
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Marshall Thundering Herd (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+). ASU has won six of nine and just scored 77 on Texas State. Marshall started 4-0 but has since lost six of seven. Current line: Marshall -2.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 1.5 | FPI projection: Marshall by 4.1
No. 24 Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., SECN). South Carolina has surged from 2-6 to 5-6. Can the Gamecocks upset a suddenly happy and confident Clemson? Current line: Clemson -7 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 5.1 | FPI projection: Clemson by 5.7
Charlotte 49ers at USF Bulls (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU). After a roller-coaster season, USF needs only to beat a fading Charlotte to bowl for the first time in five years. Current line: USF -6 | SP+ projection: USF by 10.2 | FPI projection: USF by 4.2
Cal Golden Bears at UCLA Bruins (Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN). Cal has jumped from 3-6 to 5-6 and needs to upset a UCLA team that, after last week's big rivalry win over USC, might be a bit hungover. Current line: UCLA -10 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 14.8 | FPI projection: UCLA by 8.9
Colorado State Rams at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (Saturday, 11 p.m., Team1 App). With a win on Rivalry Week's final game, CSU would bowl for the first time since 2017. Current line: CSU -6 | SP+ projection: CSU by 6.0 | FPI projection: Hawaii by 2.4
Just plain old fun rivalry games
I couldn't quite fit all the good rivalry games into one of the categories above. I tried. But here are four more rivalry games to track. At least a couple of them could be interesting.
Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers (Saturday, noon, BTN). They're both 3-8. They're separated by three spots in the SP+ rankings. They're very similar, and hey, if you're not going to have a particularly good rivalry game, you might as well have a close one! Current line: Purdue -2.5 | SP+ projection: Purdue by 2.2 | FPI projection: Purdue by 4.0
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., SECN). Either a get-right game for the Vols or a chance for Vandy to build some positivity from a 2-9 lost season. Probably the former. Current line: Vols -27 (up from -25.5) | SP+ projection: Vols by 27.9 | FPI projection: Vols by 25.8
No. 18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Cardinal (Saturday, 7 p.m., Pac-12). At 8-3, Notre Dame has still got a 10-win season to play for. But in a sparse Stanford Stadium against the 3-8 Cardinal, this is a "bring your own motivation" game. Current line: Irish -26 (up from -24.5) | SP+ projection: Irish by 28.0 | FPI projection: Irish by 27.4
North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 22 NC State Wolfpack (Saturday, 8 p.m., ACCN). Maybe the most underrated rivalry game in the sport. It produced maybe my favorite game of Rivalry Week in both 2012 (Gio Bernard's amazing late punt return) and 2022 (chaotic finish, multiple OTs). This should be a tight one, too. Current line: UNC -2.5 (up from -1.5) | SP+ projection: UNC by 3.3 | FPI projection: UNC by 4.4
My favorite bets
After bouts of bad luck and simply bad picks in the Best Bets, we surged in Week 11 and held form in Week 12, going 3-2 overall -- a biffed Iowa PAT away from going 3-1-1 -- to move to 30-28-2 for the season (52%). Can we continue the late momentum?
No. 16 Iowa (+2) at Nebraska (Friday, noon, CBS). No one knows how to win an Iowa game like Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 in one-score games, and Nebraska is 1-4. Iowa sees low over/unders as a dare. If the over/under was 5.5, the Hawkeyes would win 3-2.
Miami (Ohio) (-6.5) at Ball State (Saturday, noon, CBSSN). Miami's offense is banged up and rickety, and the Redhawks have dramatically underachieved offensive projections for two straight weeks. But they've still won both games by double digits because of a brilliant defense. I don't see how Ball State scores enough to make this close.
Western Kentucky (-10) at FIU (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+). FIU had an outside shot at a bowl game until the loss to Arkansas, and the Golden Panthers have lost their past three home games by an average of 23 points. WKU has been a little disappointing, but the Hilltoppers are more than 10 points better than FIU.
Northwestern (+5.5) at Illinois (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., BTN). Both of these teams have improved in recent weeks -- Northwestern's won three of four, Illinois three of five -- but the Wildcats have improved more rapidly. I figured this line would be Illinois -1 or -2.
Liberty (-16.5) at UTEP (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN). Liberty has played seven teams ranked in the triple digits and won by an average of 22 points. They've won the past three by an average of 26. I'm not sure what kind of home field advantage UTEP brings to the table at this point in the year, so let's assume the Flames win big.
Smaller-school playoffs
The lower-level playoffs are an absolute blast, and with FCS and NAIA both fully joining the fray, here are the most potentially interesting playoff games -- and the Bayou Classic! -- to catch a glimpse of on the ol' laptop on Saturday afternoon.
FCS: No. 16 Sacramento State at No. 14 North Dakota (Saturday, 1 p.m., ESPN+). Both the Hornets and Fighting Hawks have played loads of playoff teams and scored big wins -- UND blew out NDSU, while Sac State beat Stanford. Both have iffy defenses as well. That could be delightful from an entertainment standpoint. SP+ projection: UND by 6.4.
Div. II: No. 7 Pittsburg State at No. 2 Grand Valley State (Saturday, 1 p.m., NCAA.com). I'm not sure what GVSU did to offend the Div. II selection committee. The Lakers' reward for beating defending champ Ferris State is a battle against a Pittsburg State team that ranks fifth in SP+. GVSU's awesome, but the Gorillas have a relentless run game. SP+ projection: GVSU by 6.2.
Div. II: No. 15 Slippery Rock at No. 9 Tiffin (Saturday, 1 p.m., NCAA.com). I almost got through an entire season without shining a light on Slippery Rock's high-flying offense. Unacceptable. The Rock are averaging 43 points per game, though unbeaten Tiffin has picked off 18 passes and allowed only 13.6 PPG. SP+ projection: Tiffin by 6.1.
Div. III: No. 4 Trinity (Texas) at No. 1 North Central (Saturday, 1 p.m., local streaming). Whatever GVSU did to the committee, North Central did the same. The dominant Cardinals' round-of-16 opponent ... is the No. 4 team in the country. Trinity has won 10 in a row by mostly huge margins. Big one here. SP+ projection: North Central by 13.1.
Div. III: No. 12 Wheaton at No. 5 Wisconsin-Whitewater (Saturday, 1 p.m., local streaming). UWW played six ranked opponents in the regular season and beat five. The Warhawks are battle tested, but Wheaton's only loss came against North Central, and the Thunder's Giovanni Weeks has rushed for 1,603 yards. SP+ projection: UWW by 1.2.
FCS: Grambling vs. Southern (Saturday, 2 p.m., NBC). New Orleans gives itself to the Bayou Classic over Thanksgiving Weekend, and it's always a delightful experience. It's even more delightful when the game's close, and these two 5-5 teams couldn't be more even. SP+ projection: Grambling by 0.5.
NAIA: No. 10 College of Idaho at No. 8 Montana Western (Saturday, 2 p.m., local streaming). College of Idaho -- the Yotes! -- won a 37-35 regular season classic over Western. Both teams can pass like crazy, and the weather in Dillon, Montana, should be awfully cold. SP+ projection: Montana Western by 1.8.