There's a section in Ohio State's football building dedicated to college football's "GREATEST RIVALRY." A Michigan helmet and an Ohio State helmet are mounted on each side of a countdown clock that runs year-round, ticking down the seconds until The Game.
The clock's countdown is nearly complete, and once again, the Big Ten's biggest rivalry will determine the winner of its East Division and the league's top College Football Playoff contender. (As if the storied rivalry needed any additional juice.)
But Ohio State-Michigan is hardly the only game during Rivalry Week that could drastically change the playoff picture.
There are still eight teams with at least a 23% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, and all of them will be facing rivals in Week 13. The CFP selection committee considers that wacky things sometimes happen in rivalry games because of the emotions, shared history, recruiting wars and player familiarity between neighboring programs.
But that doesn't mean teams get an excuse to lose.
Here are the top nine rivalry games this week, ranked from biggest to smallest by the size of the impact they'll have on Selection Day:
Jump to:
Alabama-Auburn
Arizona-Arizona State
Florida State-Florida
Georgia-Georgia Tech
Kentucky-Louisville
Michigan-Ohio State
Oregon State-Oregon
Texas Tech-Texas
Washington State-Washington
1. Ohio State (11-0) at Michigan (11-0)
If Ohio State wins: The Buckeyes win the East and will face Iowa in the conference championship game. An upset to the Hawkeyes would almost certainly knock the Big Ten out of the playoff. While the committee would consider coach Jim Harbaugh's suspension, Michigan would still have an extremely difficult time finishing in the top four without beating Ohio State. The Wolverines would have no conference title and only one win against a CFP top-25 opponent (Penn State). If Ohio State prevails, it would have a 98% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, and Michigan would have a 13% chance.
If Michigan wins: The Wolverines would capture the East crown and match up with Iowa in the Big Ten title game. It would also be the program's third straight triumph against Ohio State coach Ryan Day. While Ohio State finished in the top four last season without beating Michigan, it would be more difficult this time around. With wins against Penn State and Notre Dame, the Buckeyes have a similar résumé this year, but the difference is more Power 5 contenders. Last season, Ohio State snuck into the top four in part because USC lost to Utah in the Pac-12 title game and dropped out of the committee's top four. This year, the loser of The Game could still have to worry about the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC champs.
2. Florida State (11-0) at Florida (5-6)
If Florida State wins: The undefeated Seminoles will still be in the hunt for a top-four spot with backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker under center. But Florida State will have to pass the eye test without injured starter Jordan Travis. The Seminoles will have to win convincingly, and Rodemaker will have to play well. This will be the first time the selection committee has a chance to judge Rodemaker against a Power 5 opponent, as the Seminoles' 58 unanswered points with him leading the offense came against an FCS opponent in North Alabama. Will FSU still win convincingly, leaving no doubt it is the better team? Or will the Noles struggle as Rodemaker turns it over and look fortunate to escape with a win? And how might that be viewed alongside what Washington does in the Apple Cup?
If Florida wins: The ACC's playoff hopes would be dire, at best. Florida State and Louisville, which will play each other in the ACC championship game, would each have one bad loss -- and that has historically been a sticking point in the committee meeting room. The Noles would have been defeated by an unranked, sub-.500 team that was looking for bowl eligibility. Louisville lost by double digits on Oct. 14 to a now 3-8 Pittsburgh team. Alabama's lone defeat is to Texas, which might win the Big 12. Oregon's loss is to undefeated Washington. And either Ohio State or Michigan would have a loss after playing this weekend. If the Noles fall, they would need multiple upsets in other Power 5 conference title games for the ACC to remain in the debate. It also would give some more credence to the possibility of a Georgia team that doesn't win the SEC or the loser of Ohio State-Michigan.
3. Oregon State (8-3) at Oregon (10-1)
If Oregon State wins: Insert your lame duck joke here. Oregon would have two losses and fall out of the CFP race. It might not even get a chance to compete for the conference championship. If the Beavers win and Arizona beats Arizona State, the three-loss Wildcats would play for the Pac-12 title. Let that sink in for a minute. This upset, combined with an Arizona win, would open the door to a three-loss Pac-12 champion during a season in which the Pac-12 has stated its case for being the deepest conference in the country. And yet, the league could be eliminated from the playoff -- again. An Oregon loss would put the pressure squarely on Washington to win the conference and hope that beating the same opponent twice in the same season -- whether it's Oregon or Arizona -- would impress the committee enough for a top-four finish.
If Oregon wins: It will clinch a spot in the Pac-12 title game against Washington, giving the Ducks a chance to avenge their regular-season loss to the Huskies. If Oregon can finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champion, it will have a great chance to finish in the top four, considering the Ducks are currently the committee's top one-loss team.
4. Washington State (5-6) at Washington (11-0)
If Washington State wins: This would be a devastating blow to the Huskies' playoff hopes, because the committee had concerns about Washington even as an undefeated team. Washington could still finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champ with a top-10 win against Oregon. But a loss to Washington State would be a giant stain on the Huskies' résumé -- especially when compared with the losses of other contenders. The committee has been hung up on how Washington performed in wins against Arizona State and Stanford, teams that have combined for six wins. With a loss in the Apple Cup, Washington would need to hope that it matches up with one-loss Oregon in the conference title game so that it is facing the highest-ranked opponent possible. Washington also would need to hope Georgia wins the SEC, eliminating Alabama and the possibility that the Crimson Tide and Texas take up two playoff spots.
If Washington wins: The undefeated Huskies should be in the top four heading into the Pac-12 conference championship game, especially considering the loser of Ohio State-Michigan would likely drop out. It's hard to imagine an undefeated Pac-12 winner getting excluded from the top four -- especially with a second top-10 win against the Ducks. If Oregon were to beat Washington in a close title game -- and there is chaos in the other Power 5 conference championship games -- it's not impossible that the committee would consider both. One-loss Washington would have a regular-season win against the Pac-12 champion. If the Big 12 winner has multiple losses, Florida State loses, Georgia wins the SEC and Ohio State wins the Big Ten, then the committee would at least consider the Huskies.
5. Alabama (10-1) at Auburn (6-5)
If Alabama wins: The Tide would roll into the SEC championship game against Georgia on a 10-game winning streak and with the best opportunity of any contender to impress the selection committee in its conference title game. If Alabama beats the committee's top team, it's hard to fathom the Tide being snubbed -- but the committee will continue to consider their head-to-head home loss to Texas in Week 2. The best-case scenario for Alabama would be for Texas to lose to Texas Tech or in the Big 12 title game, which would free the committee from the need to consider the head-to-head tiebreaker. It's also certainly possible Alabama and Texas finish in the top four together. There's also the slim possibility, though, that the SEC is left out if the committee also is considering undefeated Washington, undefeated Florida State and an undefeated Big Ten champion. Would one-loss Big 12 champion Texas get the fourth spot?
If Auburn wins: Here's another way the SEC is excluded: Two-loss Alabama wins the SEC and has a horrible loss on its résumé. A two-loss team has never made the playoff. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it would be hard for Alabama to overcome a defeat to an unranked team during a season in which there are so many other contenders with fewer losses and better résumés.
6. Texas Tech (6-5) at Texas (10-1)
If Texas wins: The Longhorns will clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game, where they will face Oklahoma State, Oklahoma or Kansas State. While all three should still be CFP top-25 teams, Texas will likely face the lowest-ranked Power 5 conference championship participant. The Longhorns' best-case scenario would be to face Oklahoma again and avenge their lone regular-season loss. Texas' head-to-head win over Alabama will continue to have an impact in the committee meeting room as long as the group deems the two teams comparable. If the Tide beats No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship game, it's possible that's no longer the case. The ideal scenario for Texas would be to have Georgia win the SEC and eliminate Alabama.
If Texas Tech wins: The Big 12 is doomed. The conference champion would have at least two defeats, if not more. If Texas loses, it can still play in the conference championship game with an Oklahoma loss or an Oklahoma State loss or a K-State win. But a two-loss Texas as Big 12 champ would render the head-to-head with Alabama moot, and the Tide could leapfrog the Longhorns when it matters the most.
7. Kentucky (6-5) at Louisville (10-1)
If Kentucky wins: There will be no chance that a two-loss Louisville team reaches the CFP, even as an ACC champ with a win against undefeated Florida State. Two bad defeats to unranked teams with at least five losses each would be too much to overcome, especially for Louisville, a fringe candidate to begin with.
If Louisville wins: The Cardinals would keep their slim CFP hopes alive. But they'd still need to upset an undefeated FSU in the ACC title game -- plus hope for a lot of chaos in the other Power 5 conference championship games.
8. Arizona (8-3) at Arizona State (3-8)
If Arizona wins: The Pac-12's playoff hopes could be turned upside down (see: No. 3). Arizona will clinch a spot in the Pac-12 title game with a win and an Oregon loss to Oregon State. That combination isn't unrealistic. If that scenario unfolds and Arizona faces Washington for the Pac-12 title, the pressure will be on the Huskies to win the league title to remain in the CFP debate.
If Arizona State wins: Oregon will clinch a spot in the Pac-12 title game, whether it beats Oregon State or not.
9. Georgia (11-0) at Georgia Tech (6-5)
If Georgia Tech wins: After everyone picks their jaws up off the floor from witnessing the biggest upset of the season, the SEC will need to hope that Alabama wins the league. A loss to the unranked, five-loss Yellow Jackets could keep the SEC out of the CFP if Georgia wins the league. (If you're paying close attention, you'll count that this is the third way the SEC would get left out of the playoff.)
If Georgia wins: The Bulldogs maintain their grip on the No. 1 spot heading into the SEC championship game and hang onto the teeny-tiny possibility that they could finish in the top four without winning the SEC. If Alabama wins the league title and Georgia finishes as a one-loss runner-up, the Bulldogs could get some consideration for a top-four spot, but they would need some help. And Alabama winning would mean that Texas would have something Georgia doesn't: a win against the SEC champs.