College Football Playoff Week 13 rankings reaction and a 12-team bracket

Welcome back, Washington.

For the first time since 2016, the undefeated Huskies are in the College Football Playoff selection committee's top four. Washington earned the No. 4 spot on Tuesday at the expense of undefeated Florida State, which slipped to No. 5.

It was the only change to the top 10, and it coincided with the biggest story of the week: FSU quarterback Jordan Travis suffering a season-ending injury Saturday against North Alabama. How the committee views Florida State with backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker in the lineup will be a critical storyline in the Seminoles' final two games -- against rival Florida on Saturday followed by Louisville in the ACC championship game.

The flip that occurred Tuesday evening was a strong possibility even before Travis was injured, as Washington has slowly padded its playoff résumé and addressed areas of the committee's concern -- such as on defense. Let's take a closer look at why the teams swapped spots and also preview what a 12-team playoff could look like next year.

Jump to: What would a 12-team CFP look like?

Why Washington rose and Florida State fell

In a gritty 22-20 road win against Oregon State, Washington's defense held the Beavers to a season low in points (20), total yards (317) and passing yards (169), although rainy weather might have contributed to the lower output. Oregon State, No. 16 in the committee's latest ranking, also converted a season-low third-down percentage (3-of-12 for 25%) and had an uncharacteristic three turnovers.

"It really was about Washington and what Washington did this past weekend, going up to Beaver Stadium, tough place to play," selection committee chair Boo Corrigan told ESPN's Rece Davis.

It was Washington's third win against a CFP top 25 team, including No. 6 Oregon and No. 15 Arizona. (USC and Utah were ranked when the Huskies beat them but have since fallen out of the top 25.)

With a healthy Travis, Florida State trailed 13-0 to FCS North Alabama on Saturday. Rodemaker took over and led the offense to 58 unanswered points. It was a good start against a bad opponent, but the committee took note of his performance.

Corrigan told Davis the loss of Travis "didn't have any impact" in this week's decision. "As we're watching the game, Florida State starts down 13, Rodemaker comes in, they score 58 consecutive points. They've got a lot of dudes on the field."

The selection committee is required to follow written protocol when ranking its teams on Selection Day, including several tiebreakers that aren't weighed but are used to help distinguish between "otherwise comparable teams." The members consider conference titles, head-to-head results, strength of schedule, and results against common opponents (without incentivizing margin of victory).

They also consider "other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."

That last part -- "likely will affect" -- was written with the intention of helping committee members address a scenario in which a key player or coach -- such as FSU's Travis or Michigan's Jim Harbaugh -- is injured or absent in the conference championship game. That isn't the case this year. The selection committee doesn't have to assume how Florida State or Michigan might compete against the likes of Georgia, for example, in a semifinal without Travis or Harbaugh. It will get a chance to see that on the field.

The committee will continue to judge those schools in the same way the inaugural committee viewed Ohio State in 2014 when the Buckeyes' record-setting quarterback, J.T. Barrett, broke his right ankle in the regular-season finale. It was another blow to the offense after Heisman Trophy candidate Braxton Miller suffered a right shoulder injury in August. The Buckeyes were down to their third-string quarterback, Cardale Jones, in the Big Ten championship game against Wisconsin. Jones, making his first career start, was named the game's MVP after he led Ohio State to a 59-0 drubbing of No. 13 Wisconsin.

Ohio State cracked the top four for the first time all season -- on Selection Day.

Florida State can climb back in -- especially considering the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game is going to drop out. It helps that the Seminoles will face a top-10 opponent in the ACC title game in Louisville. It also helped them Tuesday night that No. 24 Clemson, which has four losses, popped back into the ranking. The Seminoles won at Clemson in September and also have a statement win against No. 14 LSU.

If Florida State can finish the season as an undefeated champion with Rodemaker leading the offense, it's hard to fathom the Seminoles being excluded on Selection Day, but with so many contenders remaining, it's hard to call anyone a lock.

What a 12-team playoff would look like

Even though Washington jumped Florida State for the fourth spot in the selection committee's rankings, not much would change in a 12-team bracket.

No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Washington and No. 5 Florida State would still get first-round byes as the highest-ranked conference champions. No. 3 Michigan would have to play an opening-round game at home because the Buckeyes would have presumably won the Big Ten title.

Oregon State drops out of the 12-team bracket after its 22-20 loss to Washington at home last week. Penn State is back in the bracket after falling out a week earlier. The Nittany Lions beat Rutgers 27-6 at home Saturday.

Three of the four first-round games would remain the same from a week ago: No. 23 Tulane at No. 5 Michigan; No. 10 Louisville at No. 7 Texas; and No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Alabama. No. 11 Penn State would play at No. 6 Oregon in the fourth game.

Oregon and Washington are moving from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten and Texas is going from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2024. Those two newly expanded leagues would once again have nine of the 12 teams.

Here's what the first-round games would look:

No. 12 Tulane at No. 3 Michigan

The Wolverines would essentially be the 5-seed after losing a first-round bye because they would be the No. 2 team from the Big Ten. Let the conspiracy theories begin. Of course, Michigan would at least have a chance to settle the debate with Ohio State on the field in the regular-season finale to grab the higher ranking.

The Green Wave has been the highest-ranked team from a Group of 5 conference in each of the selection committee's rankings. They've won a bunch of close games, and things could get interesting in Saturday's home game against surging UTSA (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

Tulane finally has some company in the rankings from another G5 program, with undefeated Liberty joining the top 25 for the first time this season. The No. 25 Flames are 11-0 in their first season in Conference USA. The Flames play at UTEP on Saturday and face New Mexico State in the conference title game Dec. 1.

The winner of the first-round game would get No. 5 Florida State in the quarterfinals.

No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Oregon

The Nittany Lions would play at Oregon, replacing the Beavers in what was a replay of their in-state rivalry game with the Ducks. This is assuming Oregon would have lost to Washington in the Pac-12 championship game, which is probably a toss-up at this point.

The Ducks and Nittany Lions have played only once since 1965. In Penn State's second season in the Big Ten, it defeated Oregon 38-20 in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day 1995 to finish with a perfect 12-0 record. The Nittany Lions, led by tailback Ki-Jana Carter, tight end Kyle Brady and quarterback Kerry Collins, finished No. 2 behind Nebraska in the final AP and coaches' polls.

The winner of this game would play Washington in the quarterfinals, which could potentially be another rematch between the Ducks and Huskies.

No. 10 Louisville at No. 7 Texas

We're going to assume that Louisville wouldn't get past Florida State -- even without injured quarterback Jordan Travis -- in the ACC championship game.

As we noted last week, these programs haven't played each other very often. The Cardinals and Longhorns have met on the gridiron only twice, with Louisville winning 41-10 at home in 1993 and Texas taking a 30-16 victory in Austin the next year.

A potential second-round game would feature two blue bloods (Texas vs. Ohio State) or two programs from neighboring states (Louisville vs. Ohio State). Columbus, Ohio, and Louisville, Kentucky, are separated by just over 200 miles. The Buckeyes and Cardinals have played just twice, with OSU winning close games in 1991 and 1992. Remarkably, Texas and Ohio State have played only three times, with the Longhorns winning the most recent game, 24-21 in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 5, 2009.

No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Alabama

An all-SEC game that remains unchanged from a week ago. As we wrote last week, the Crimson Tide and Tigers have played just four times as conference foes, including Alabama's 42-13 rout in the 2014 SEC championship game in Atlanta. The Tigers are 0-4 against the Tide as SEC members, losing by an average of 27.5 points.

This Missouri team looks much more physical than past editions, however, with a menacing defensive line and the SEC's top runner, Cody Schrader. The Tigers are going to finish No. 2 in the SEC East, after losing at Georgia 30-21. They wouldn't have to play Alabama in the SEC championship game and would be safe for a spot in the 12-team bracket.

The winner would play Georgia in the quarterfinals, which probably wouldn't sit well with Bulldogs fans. The Bulldogs have already faced the Crimson Tide twice while trying to win a national championship. Alabama won 26-23 in overtime in the 2018 CFP National Championship in Atlanta. Georgia avenged that loss with a 33-18 victory in the CFP title game in Indianapolis four years later, which ended its 41-year drought without a national championship.