The theme of the 2023 college football season: highly entertaining chalk. We spent much of the season thinking the sport's ruling powers were more vulnerable than usual. Georgia thought hard about losing to South Carolina and Auburn; Ohio State's offense was far more flawed than normal; Alabama lost in Week 2 and spent most of the season with an all-touchdowns-or-sacks offense; and while Michigan was mostly dominant, the Wolverines were dealing with both two suspensions for their head coach and an acute case of Ain'tPlayedNobodyItis.
Through it all, though, the top teams kept winning. The top four teams in the preseason polls (Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Alabama), plus Florida State (eighth), Texas (Big 12 favorite) and Washington and Oregon (two of three Pac-12 favorites), have gone a combined 92-4 -- 3-3 against each other and 89-1 against everyone else. The only loss to an outsider: Texas' late defeat against No. 12 Oklahoma. Not exactly humiliating.
Only four of these teams will make the final four-team College Football Playoff, however, and we'll find out who those teams are after one last weekend. Will we get one more round of delightful chalk? Might we have a long-awaited upset or two in store? And what the heck happens if we do?
Here's everything you need to follow during college football's championship weekend.
Jump to a section:
Pac-12 rematch showdown | Can OSU ruin Texas' Big 12 finale?
SEC: The CFP nightmare
Does FSU finish undefeated? | Michigan vs. Iowa's offensive abyss
Tulane-SMU-Liberty trio | G5 titles
Best bets | Small-school showcase
Pac-12 championship
No. 3 Washington Huskies vs. No. 5 Oregon Ducks (Friday, 8 p.m., ABC)
We'll attack the power conference championship games in chronological order.
Friday night's Pac-12 championship is pretty straightforward: The winner's almost certainly in, and the loser's almost certainly out. And if we're lucky, the game will hit the same levels as the first time these two played in 2023.
Washington's 36-33 victory in Seattle might have been my favorite game of the regular season. It was certainly the most optimistic -- both teams just went for it. The average 2023 game has featured about 1.5 plays in which the in-game win probability, per the FPI, shifted by 13% or more. Oregon-Washington had five such plays in the fourth quarter alone, and none were the fourth-down Oregon failures that we talked about so much at the time.
14:32 left: Bo Nix 49-yard pass to Troy Franklin (+14.1% win probability for Oregon). Oregon went up 33-29 two plays later.
9:26 left: Michael Penix Jr. 8-yard pass to Giles Jackson on fourth-and-6 (+20.9% for UW). This set up a first-and-goal for the Huskies.
7:26 left: Dillon Johnson 1-yard run on third-and-goal from the 2 (+18.5% for Oregon). The Huskies failed on fourth down, too, giving another 8.1% to Oregon.
2:11 left: Penix 35-yard pass to Ja'Lynn Polk (+22.9% for Washington). That put the Huskies on Oregon's 18, and ...
1:44 left: Penix 18-yard touchdown pass to Rome Odunze (+42.6%).
All that happened, and Oregon still had a field goal to force overtime. It was as even as could be, but Washington did what it has done all year: come through in the clutch. The Huskies are 6-0 in games decided by one score.
Oregon has gone the opposite route. The Ducks lost by three to UW, beat Texas Tech 38-30 in Lubbock and won 10 other games by an average of 47-7. A run of recent blowouts has bumped them from sixth to fourth in SP+, while Washington's obsession with late-game drama has made the Huskies less predictively reliable and dropped them from fourth to 11th. SP+ projected Washington by 2.2 the first time around and nearly nailed it. This time it has Oregon by 8.4.
Here are my two main questions for this one:
1. Can Washington hem in the run game again? The Huskies have been dreadfully inefficient up front in 2023, ranking 123rd in rushing success rate allowed and 128th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line). They get away with it thanks to strong big-play prevention and the excellent field position their offense sets up for them. But while they weren't amazing against the dynamite Oregon run game, they avoided disaster: Backs Bucky Irving and Jordan James rushed 33 times for 190 yards -- a strong 5.8-yard average but one that featured only one 15-yard rush.
The bend-don't-break routine forced two field goal attempts and set up three fourth-down failures. It's a high-wire act, but UW will need to pull it off again.
2. Is Michael Penix Jr. OK? Let's compare.
Penix's first 6 games of 2023: 92.2 Total QBR, 72% completion rate, 14.8 yards per completion, 9.3% TD rate, 1.4% INT rate
His last 6 games: 71.3 Total QBR, 59% completion rate, 12.8 yards per completion, 5.7% TD rate, 2.4% INT rate
Coaxing injury information out of head coaches these days is like prying out state secrets, so if there's been anything wrong with Penix -- who has certainly seemed hobbled from time to time -- we don't officially know about it. But for one reason or another, returns have diminished, even as his receiving corps has gotten healthier and running back Dillon Johnson has become a more trusted part of the offense.
In narrow wins over Oregon State and Washington State, Penix was just 31-for-61. Weather was an issue against OSU, but against Wazzu he threw a pick, nearly threw a couple more and took some effective hits, something he's avoiding less and less. For whatever reason, Penix and the Washington passing game haven't been nearly as sharp of late. That trend will need immediate reversal.
Current line: Oregon -9.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 8.4 | FPI projection: Oregon by 9.7
Big 12 championship
No. 7 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (Saturday, noon, ABC)
This was simultaneously Mike Gundy's best and worst coaching performance in his 19 years at Oklahoma State. Best: The Cowboys were picked seventh in the preseason Big 12 poll but reached their second Big 12 championship in three seasons. Worst: They were also destroyed by South Alabama and UCF by a combined 78-10, and a lot of the adversity they had to overcome in 2023 was self-inflicted. They start games slowly sometimes, they settle for field goals despite having the best RB in the country, and they give up scoring runs. They've trailed by at least seven points seven times but have come back to win four times.
Last week's win over BYU was their masterpiece. They dominated early but settled for field goals, then gave up a 24-0 run to trail by 18 at half. They charged all the way back and took the lead in the final minute but had a PAT blocked, allowing BYU to tie the game with a field goal at the buzzer. And after all that, Gordon made a couple of masterful runs, and the Pokes' defense forced a turnover and won.
Texas, meanwhile, beat BYU by 29. The Longhorns are not without their flaws, but they are the best team OSU has faced. They're eighth in offensive SP+, and while OSU held two other top-10 offenses (Kansas State and OU) under 30 points, the Horns also have easily the best defense on OSU's schedule. They have the best defensive line in the conference (tackle T'Vondre Sweat: Outland finalist) and one of the best run defenses in the country. Their biggest defensive vulnerability has been the occasional big pass play, but OSU doesn't make many of those -- most of its chunk plays come from Gordon. Texas' biggest offensive vulnerability, meanwhile, has been red zone mediocrity, but OSU's 32 field goal attempts certainly hint at the same problem.
The way this season has played out, the best guess for how this will play out is, (a) Quinn Ewers and Texas take a 17-point lead in the second quarter, and (b) someone then goes on a huge run. If OSU can't muck things up and come back, the Horns could win a blowout that reminds the committee of their playoff worthiness. But there would be some poetry in one last OSU comeback, one that allows the Cowboys to have pulled one over on both departing Big 12 programs (OU and Texas) on their way out the door.
Current line: Texas -15.5 (up from -12.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 16.1 | FPI projection: Texas by 17.0
SEC championship
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS)
There might be only one game in today's college football landscape bigger than Michigan-Ohio State: Alabama-Georgia. They barely ever play in the regular season (only twice in 15 years now), so if they're facing each other, it's likely in either the SEC championship or the College Football Playoff. It's Nick Saban vs. Kirby Smart. It's the winners of each of the past three national titles (and eight of the past 14). And this year, it might also be the CFP committee's worst nightmare.
Imagine for a moment that Texas has already won on Saturday, Alabama beats Georgia, and that both Michigan and Florida State win on Saturday evening. Assuming the committee is not inclined to leave an unbeaten power conference champion out -- we'll get to that below -- it might have to choose between a 12-1 Georgia, a 12-1 Texas (with a head-to-head win over Alabama) and a 12-1 Alabama (with a head-to-head win over Georgia) for the final spot.
SP+ thinks there's about a 1-in-5 chance of this scenario playing out -- not huge, but big enough to wonder about. Georgia is six spots ahead of Texas and seven ahead of Bama; the Dawgs could very well stay ahead of both in this scenario because of the lead they already have, or they could fall below both because of head-to-head machinations. My bet is the former, but the latter's clearly on the table. Either way, this would be the committee's hardest selection day decision to date. (Meanwhile, a Georgia win in this scenario would set up its easiest call.)
This game's a pretty big deal, then, even by Georgia-Bama standards. Two years ago, the teams met in Atlanta with unbeaten Georgia a six-point favorite, and Bama used a second-quarter surge to roll, 41-24. Georgia hasn't lost since. The Dawgs feel as untouchable as ever, and Bama ranks only eighth in SP+ after last week's narrow escape at Auburn. The Tide haven't finished a season ranked that low since 2007, Saban's first season in Tuscaloosa. Georgia has the better offense (fourth in offensive SP+ vs. 13th for Alabama), defense (fifth vs. eighth) and special teams unit (second vs. fourth).
Alabama's biggest opportunity seems to come in the run game. For as many sacks as the Tide have allowed in 2023, the run game is always moving forward. They're only 45th in rushing success rate, but they're automatic in short yardage, and only 13% of their rushes are stuffed (11th nationally). Georgia, meanwhile, ranks a jarring 81st in rushing success rate allowed and 48th in stuff rate (19%). This is the least disruptive Dawgs front in quite a while, and it's something quarterback Jalen Milroe (7.2 yards per non-sack carry) and the 1,300-yard duo of Jase McClellan (questionable with injury) and/or Roydell Williams could exploit.
The UGA secondary is outstanding. The Dawgs rank fifth in passing success rate allowed and ninth in yards allowed per dropback. If you can't take advantage of Daylen Everette (21-for-40 for 313 yards and five passes of 20-plus in primary coverage), there aren't any other holes to exploit. Not that Bama won't take some shots. With Milroe starting all but one game, Bama has thrown 24% of its passes at least 20 yards downfield, seventh nationally and nearly 10 percentage points higher than the national average. Milroe averages 21.2 yards on these passes, too, fourth best nationally. If you limit the explosions, Alabama has to grind out very long drives to score. That's typically almost impossible to do against Georgia.
One way or another, Milroe & Co. will have to find some success because the Dawgs' offense is absolutely ruthless. They never go three-and-out, they're almost never off-schedule, and it doesn't matter when they are off-schedule because they're first in passing downs success rate. They scheme go-to guys open as well as anyone, and they have so many go-to guys -- tight end Brock Bowers, wideout Ladd McConkey, slot man Dominic Lovett, big-play man Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint -- that it hasn't mattered that they're almost never all healthy at the same time. (Bowers and McConkey are considered day-to-day at the moment.) There aren't a ton of big plays here, but Carson Beck pilots a ridiculously consistent attack.
Going by SP+, this is the best Bama defense since 2018. The Tide defend the pass every bit as well as Georgia and do so with a much more active pass rush. Beck has rarely been uncomfortable, and success in this regard could make a massive difference. Bama also doesn't defend the run quite as well as expected -- just ask Auburn -- but this is an excellent and dynamic D.
On paper, Georgia's defensive advantages are bigger than Bama's. One way or another -- via big plays against a great secondary or stops on passing downs against an awesome offense -- the Tide are going to have to beat Georgia in a way no one else has been able to do in two years. They're capable. But this is an awfully hard task.
Current line: Georgia -5.5 (up from -5) | SP+ projection: Georgia by 7.2 | FPI projection: Georgia by 0.7
ACC championship
No. 4 Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 14 Louisville Cardinals (Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC)
In 2015, Iowa finished the season 25th in SP+ and 33rd in FPI. The Hawkeyes had a very Iowa team -- 61st in offensive SP+, eighth on defense -- the customary good-not-elite winner Kirk Ferentz creates. But they won all their close games, went 12-0 and led the Big Ten championship with 30 seconds left. If they could stop Michigan State one last time, they would justifiably reach the CFP despite not being one of the four "best" teams in the country*.
With an ACC championship win, FSU will almost certainly make the CFP as well. The Seminoles are 12-0 and fourth in the CFP rankings. The committee has never seriously considered leaving out an unbeaten power conference champion, and it probably isn't going to start now, even if it means (a) including a team whose star quarterback, Jordan Travis, suffered a season-ending injury, and (b) giving only one combined spot to hypothetical 12-1 Georgia, Texas and Alabama teams.
The committee always says it's picking the best teams. Even this week, outgoing CFP executive director Bill Hancock swore to it. "'Most deserving' is not anything in the committee's lexicon," he said. "They are there to rank the best teams in order, and that's what they do." But they don't. And they shouldn't! If it's only about the best teams, cancel this weekend's games -- we already know who the best are. Ohio State would be favored against anyone in the country besides Michigan and Georgia. The Buckeyes are one of the four "best" teams, but the committee always picks the most deserving, and it shouldn't stop now. "Best" or not, if a 13-0 power conference champ doesn't get in, what the hell are we even doing here?
Of course, this semantics debate is moot if FSU loses to Louisville. Led by quarterback Jack Plummer and RB Jawhar Jordan, the Cardinals' offense is both efficient (10th in success rate) and explosive. Head coach Jeff Brohm pulls out all the stops against top teams and has four wins over top-10 teams to show for it. The defense gives up too many explosive plays but forces loads of three-and-outs and turnovers.
Florida State remains the favorite for a reason, though. New starting QB Tate Rodemaker -- or freshman Brock Glenn, if a head injury keeps Rodemaker on the sideline -- still has running back Trey Benson and one of the nation's best receiver duos in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. The defense still has Jared Verse, one of the best pass rushes in the country and a secondary that ranks third in QBR allowed.
FSU isn't one of the four best teams in the country. But if the Seminoles win, there should be no question if they're in. If they're not, the committee got it unforgivably wrong.
* Michigan State scored and went to the CFP instead. I feel bad always using this example, and I promise it's nothing personal, Hawkeyes fans. But the best example is the best example.
Current line: FSU -2.5 (down from -3.5) | SP+ projection: FSU by 13.4 | FPI projection: FSU by 9.1
Big Ten championship
No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 16 Iowa Hawkeyes (Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox)
So if even top-ranked Georgia is vulnerable to falling out of the top four with a loss, does that mean No. 2 Michigan is, too? Of the eight CFP contenders, the Wolverines have played the second-weakest schedule (they are 54th in SP+ strength of schedule, and only FSU, at 56th, ranks lower), and per the CFP rankings, a loss to Iowa would be the worst of any a contender has suffered. Would they need help from other upsets to stay in the top four?
The answer to that is unclear ... but it's hard to worry too much. Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines are outstanding, and they're probably going to wallop the most one-dimensional Iowa team that Kirk Ferentz has ever fielded.
The Hawkeyes' defense is as strong as ever and can tie you in mental knots, but they have scored 20 total points in their past three games against Michigan, and they're currently 124th in offensive SP+, 128th in points per drive, 132nd in success rate and even 132nd in red zone touchdown rate. This legitimately might be the worst Iowa offense ever, and any touchdown the Hawkeyes score in Indianapolis -- with their offense, anyway -- will be a surprise. These rankings obviously got worse after key injuries, like that of quarterback Cade McNamara, but they were awful when everyone was healthy, too. This unit is an insult to other conservative offenses. A lot of conservative offenses still score points.
Phil Parker's defense is so damn good, and the Big Ten West was so horrifically bad that the Hawkeyes rode one unit to double-digit wins. The Hawkeyes will still have at least a slight chance of making things murky by doing the Iowa things really well: eliminating big plays, never missing tackles and forcing field goals. This sort of worked last year in a 27-14 loss (which was admittedly not as close as the final score). It very much did not work in the 2021 Big Ten championship, a 42-3 Michigan win that was that close only because of two Wolverines turnovers.
Weak early schedule or no, Michigan was tested enough to prove itself. Against a Penn State team that is 21-0 against everyone not named Michigan or Ohio State over the past two years, the Wolverines won on the road, generating 1.2 more yards per play and methodically building a 15-point advantage until a PSU touchdown in the final two minutes. Against Ohio State last weekend, they needed a plus-2 turnover margin to get the job done in a statistical toss-up, but they were the more confident, assertive (especially in terms of fourth downs) and, in the end, better team. An Iowa upset would be the single least likely result of Championship Weekend.
Current line: Michigan -21.5 (down from -23) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 22.7 | FPI projection: Michigan by 21.6
Tulane vs. SMU vs. Liberty
For all we know, 11-1 Toledo would be ranked 26th if the CFP committee ranked one more team. The Rockets could be closer than we think to stealing the Group of 5's New Year's Six bowl bid.
What we know for sure, however, is that 11-1 Tulane is 22nd in the CFP rankings and 12-0 Liberty is 24th. If Tulane beats SMU on Saturday afternoon, the Green Wave will likely attend a major bowl for the second straight year. If the Green Wave lose and Liberty has already beaten New Mexico State at home on Friday evening, the Flames likely go despite the committee's obvious disdain for their schedule strength. And if both lose, I think it's most likely to be SMU, a 10-2 team with losses only to Big 12 teams and a mostly dominant eight-game winning streak.
Conference USA championship: New Mexico State Aggies at No. 24 Liberty Flames (Friday, 7 p.m., CBSSN)
Liberty's up first. The Flames beat NMSU in Lynchburg in September, but it feels like both teams have evolved since then. LU was 72nd in SP+ as late as Week 7 but has since leaped to 20th. The offense has exceeded projections for seven straight games, though the defense has recently looked spotty. NMSU, meanwhile, ranked 108th after a 2-3 start, but the Aggies have since won eight straight, including a 31-10 blowout of Auburn in Week 12. Their defense has been magnificent.
Liberty's the obvious favorite, but with their first 10-win season in 63 years, Jerry Kill's Aggies are writing an unbelievable story. This is probably Liberty's moment, but doubt NMSU at your peril.
Current line: Liberty -11 | SP+ projection: Liberty by 13.6 | FPI projection: Liberty by 13.6
AAC championship: SMU Mustangs at No. 22 Tulane Green Wave (Saturday, 4 p.m., ABC)
How good is SMU quarterback Preston Stone? More specifically, how much better is he than backup Kevin Jennings? Stone suffered a fractured fibula in last week's blowout of Navy and will miss Saturday's AAC title game. Stone was a solid 32nd in Total QBR, and with him it's possible that SMU, with its recent form, would have been a road favorite in this game. But what can Jennings do against what is, per SP+, the best Tulane defense since 1981.
Michael Pratt and the Tulane offense will have a rough unit to deal with, too. SMU ranks eighth in points allowed per drive and forces three-and-outs constantly. If Jennings -- who is 18-for-24 for 224 yards and three scores on the year (great numbers until you realize he's never thrown more than six passes in a game, and almost all were in garbage time) -- can generate some positivity here and there, the Mustangs might make enough stops to take the win.
Current line: Tulane -3.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 1.4 | FPI projection: SMU by 8.3
Other G5 title games
Maybe Toledo can still steal the NY6 bid, but even if not, all three of these remaining conference championships bring intrigue to the table. We've really been blessed with these 10 title games this year. (Well, eight or nine of 10, at least, depending on your thoughts about OSU-Texas and Iowa-Michigan.)
MAC Championship: Miami RedHawks vs. Toledo Rockets (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
The MAC is a parity-driven league, but two teams lorded over the rest this year. Miami is an Iowa approximation -- 105th in offensive SP+, 15th on defense and first in special teams -- while Toledo is athletic and infinitely more well-rounded. Dequan Finn has 2,384 passing yards and 620 non-sack rushing yards, and front-seven weapons like Judge Culpepper, Daniel Bolden and Terrance Taylor are super disruptive.
Miami likes a good rock fight. The Redhawks have slipped precipitously on offense since the injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert a month ago, and that shifts the advantage in Toledo's favor. (The Rockets won 21-17 in Oxford in Week 8, before Gabbert's injury.) But the Miami defense is legit and could turn this into a war of attrition.
Current line: Toledo -8 | SP+ projection: Toledo by 4.0 | FPI projection: Toledo by 3.5
MWC championship: Boise State Broncos at UNLV Rebels (Saturday, 3 p.m., Fox)
We had to wait until Sunday morning to find out who was playing in this game because the three-way tie for the conference lead between Boise State, San Jose State and UNLV had to be broken by BCS-era computer formulas. The spreadsheets chose UNLV and BSU.
A road win would give Boise State its fifth MWC title in 12 years. The school fired head coach Andy Avalos a couple of weeks ago, but the Broncos won their last two games anyway. UNLV, meanwhile, hasn't won a conference title since 1994 and hasn't finished in the SP+ top 50 since 1984. But here the Rebels are, 49th and one home win away from the trophy. They went 7-23 in the three-year Marcus Arroyo era, and they're 9-3 in Barry Odom's first season. This has already been an unprecedented season, and now they have a shot at something magical.
Current line: BSU -2.5 (down from -3) | SP+ projection: UNLV by 1.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 2.0
Sun Belt championship: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Troy Trojans (Saturday, 4 p.m., ESPN)
Appalachian State began 2023 just 3-4 and 1-2 in Sun Belt play. Had the magic left Boone? Evidently not. The Mountaineers have won five in a row, catching fire with a super-efficient passing game and almost equally strong pass defense. They've overachieved against SP+ projections by 20.1 points per game over the past month, and thanks to JMU's ineligibility, they won the East division.
Troy might be even hotter. Jon Sumrall's Trojans began the year 1-2 but haven't lost since, holding their last nine opponents to 12.4 points per game and combining the steady rushing of Kimani Vidal with the big-play receiving of Jabre Barber and Chris Lewis (combined: 16.8 yards per catch). Troy has lost five straight to the Mountaineers but has an opportunity to win back-to-back Sun Belt titles.
Current line: Troy -6 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Troy by 7.0 | FPI projection: Troy by 6.6
My favorite bets
It's the final week of the season for my best bets. Despite UTEP's garbage-time, backdoor cover against Liberty, we managed to go 3-2 last week to move to 33-30-2 for the season. Early-season bad luck hasn't been balanced out by late-season good fortune, but oh well. If we can just win one game this week, a .500 record is assured. Let's set a nice, low bar.
Here are this week's picks:
Miami (Ohio) (+8). Miami's offense has struggled without Gabbert, but Toledo usually fails to clear the bar SP+ sets as well, and I think the Rockets should be favored by something more in the range of one to four points.
Texas-Oklahoma State: over 54.5. Five of the past seven Texas games and five of the past seven OSU games have topped 54.5. Each of the past two OSU games has topped 70.
UNLV (+2.5). SP+ has been awfully good at picking straight-up upsets this year, and it says UNLV has a one-point advantage.
Oregon-Washington: under 65.5. Only one of the past six Oregon games and two of the past six Washington games have topped 65.5. Washington's offense isn't as sharp as it was the first time these teams played, and I think the defenses make some stops.
Florida State (-2.5). Picking against Jeff Brohm in a big game is dicey. But I think FSU remains a better, more reliable team.
Smaller-school showcase
Last week was one of the best weeks of small-school playoff action you'll ever see. This week the FCS playoffs kick into gear with the top eight seeds joining the fray, and we've got some particularly huge quarterfinal matchups in the lower levels. Here's what you should be tracking:
FCS round of 16: No. 7 North Dakota State at No. 8 Montana State (3 p.m., ESPN+). NDSU has been as dominant as ever against lesser teams but lost to three playoff teams by an average of 16 points. Former NDSU assistant Brent Vigen has made at least the semis in each of his first two seasons at MSU. This is a titanic battle for the round of 16. SP+ projection: NDSU by 5.2.
SWAC championship: Prairie View at No. 5 Florida A&M (4 p.m., ESPN2). FAMU coach (and former Prairie View head man) Willie Simmons has gone 29-3 in the SWAC over the past four years. This feels like Simmons' and his Rattlers' moment. Can PVAMU's Bubba McDowell, a former Simmons assistant, wreck their Celebration Bowl plans? SP+ projection: FAMU by 26.2.
Division II quarterfinals: No. 2 Grand Valley State at No. 3 Harding (2 p.m., NCAA.com). At the Div. II level, they understandably draw up regions based on geography. But with a concentrated balance of power, that means we have the following quarterfinal matchups: No. 1 vs. unranked, No. 15 vs. unranked, No. 11 vs. No. 14 ... and No. 2 vs. No. 3. Between them, GVSU and Harding have already beaten teams ranked fifth, sixth and seventh. And now they play each other.
There just has to be a better way to draw up brackets, right? Regardless, GVSU and Harding should be a thriller, just like all three of these teams' other playoff games. SP+ projection: Harding by 1.9.
Division III quarterfinals: No. 1 North Central at No. 6 UW-La Crosse (1 p.m., local streaming). With Mount Union suffering a shocking second-round loss to Alma, North Central's biggest title challenger is out. That suggests, however, that North Central had a challenger at all. The Cardinals should roll to the title, but they have to go to La Crosse for this one, at least. SP+ projection: North Central by 10.1.
NAIA quarterfinals: No. 7 Bethel (Tenn.) at No. 3 Keiser (Fla.) (1 p.m., local streaming). Bethel lost by 28 to Georgetown (Ky.) in an early-October stunner but has rolled through 11 other games. The Wildcats might be the best team in NAIA, but that loss means they'll have to prove it on the road. Keiser did exactly that last year, beating Bethel and two others in a shock run to the title game. SP+ projection: Bethel by 2.4.