College football conference championship games predictions

Conference championship weekend is nearly upon us and it's going to be a memorable one.

Beginning Friday through Saturday night, all 10 FBS conferences will hold their title games. Unlike some seasons, each power conference championship game has direct College Football Playoff implications in the final year of the four-team model. The Pac-12 and SEC games shape up as likely CFP play-ins, as Georgia and Washington try to remain undefeated. CFP hopefuls Michigan, Florida State and Texas attempt to complete their playoff profiles against upset-minded Iowa, Louisville and Oklahoma State, respectively.

The Group of 5 title games also bring intrigue and different possibilities. Tulane aims for consecutive AAC titles -- and certainly another New Year's Six bowl berth -- against SMU, which appears in its first AAC championship before moving to the ACC in 2024. The Mustangs haven't won an outright conference title since 1982, when the "Pony Express" squad finished No. 2 nationally. Liberty aims for 13-0 against Jerry Kill's New Mexico State Aggies, one of the nation's most surprising success stories, while Troy and Toledo aim for consecutive league crowns.

As the games get closer, we're predicting each outcome and why. Take a look.

Jump to a game:
Conference USA | Pac-12
Big 12 | MAC
Mountain West | SEC
AAC | Sun Belt
ACC | Big Ten

Conference USA

New Mexico State (10-3) at Liberty (12-0)
Friday, 7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Line: Liberty -11

Heather Dinich: Liberty 28, New Mexico State 17. We've seen this movie before, and the Flames racked up 526 yards on offense in the conference opener. This might be a close game early, but quarterback Kaidon Salter will continue to be a game-changer and Liberty will finish as undefeated conference champs.

Adam Rittenberg: New Mexico State 28, Liberty 27. The Flames have had an exceptional season under first-year coach Jamey Chadwell and lead the nation in rushing (295.4 yards per game). But I can't go against Jerry Kill's Aggies, who will lean on their defense and two late scoring drives to complete the dream season with a league title.

Pac-12

Oregon (11-1) vs. Washington (12-0)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC, Las Vegas
Line: Oregon -9.5

Dinich: Oregon 42, Washington 31. Bo Nix will be throwing against the nation's No. 124 pass defense, which is allowing 265.2 yards per game. The Huskies also have one of the worst red zone defenses in the country (119th). Oregon will avenge its regular-season loss with Nix, a better running game and the better defense.

Rittenberg: Oregon 36, Washington 28. Huskies coach Kalen DeBoer doesn't lose big games -- he's 8-0 against AP Top 25 opponents at UW -- but Oregon has looked like a different team since its stumble in Seattle. Nix makes his closing argument for the Heisman Trophy and Oregon's defense does enough to slow down Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze to win the final Pac-12 title and likely secure a CFP berth.

Big 12

Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Texas (11-1)
Saturday, noon ET, ABC, Arlington, Texas
Line: Texas -15.5

Dinich: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 28. The Longhorns aren't going to stop Ollie Gordon II, but they will certainly slow down the Big 12's leading rusher. The Texas defense, anchored by tackle T'Vondre Sweat, will make sustaining drives difficult, and quarterback Quinn Ewers will play like he did in September when the Longhorns beat Bama.

Rittenberg: Texas 37, Oklahoma State 21. To echo HD, the Longhorns defense and especially the line will be the difference against Gordon, Alan Bowman and the Pokes. The Iowa State win Nov. 18 really seemed to galvanize Texas, which can sense its first Big 12 title since 2009 -- and possibly its first CFP appearance -- and will get enough from its own run game, which eclipsed 300 yards last week despite playing without star back Jonathon Brooks.

MAC

Miami of Ohio (10-2) vs. Toledo (11-1)
Saturday, noon ET, ESPN, Detroit
Line: Toledo -8

Dinich: Toledo 24, Miami (Ohio) 21. The RedHawks' defense hasn't allowed more than 16 points since its regular-season loss to Toledo on Oct. 21, but the Rockets' prolific offense will be too much to overcome -- again. Miami's stingy rushing defense, which is No. 30 in the country with 3.59 yards per rush, won't be able to stop Detroit native Peny Boone. He's racking up 7.5 yards per carry against league opponents.

Rittenberg: Toledo 28, Miami (Ohio) 20. The MAC's best offense faces its best defense yet again after Toledo beat Miami by four points Oct. 21 on the road. Expect a similar type of game, but Boone, Dequan Finn and the Rockets have too much for Miami to handle, especially in climate-controlled Ford Field. It's the return of the MAC (champs).

Mountain West

Boise State (7-5) at UNLV (9-3)
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, Fox
Line: Boise State -2.5

Dinich: UNLV 31, Boise State 28. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is completing 65.7% of his passes against conference opponents and will lead UNLV to the league title. Boise State has won two straight games under interim head coach Spencer Danielson, but the Rebels will make more stops on third down and come away with more points in the red zone.

Rittenberg: Boise State 27, UNLV 24. The Mountain West has become weird over the past month, and I expect it to continue for the championship game. Boise State looks galvanized with Danielson, whose defense does enough against Maiava, Ricky White and the Rebels' bevy of running backs. Mountain West Player of the Year Ashton Jeanty is the difference for Boise State in this one.

SEC