Conference championship week is unlike any other for the College Football Playoff selection committee because it's the only time the members watch the games together.
They will begin on Friday evening with the Conference USA game between New Mexico State and Liberty, followed by the Pac-12 title game between Oregon and Washington (8 p.m. ET/ABC). They will discuss the teams as the games unfold but won't begin their deliberations and voting until after the ACC championship game between Louisville and Florida State (8 p.m. ET/ABC) on Saturday night.
"It really is nice to be together as a group for the conference championship games as we put together our final rankings," selection committee chair Boo Corrigan told ESPN. "Being together for these final games gives us the chance to talk in real time about what we are seeing unfold, compare the level of play between teams side by side, and compare our notes on what we have been seeing on our own from the regular season."
It's easily the longest night of the season. This year, it might also be the most difficult.
The conference title games are the missing piece -- the last chance to impress the members while having their undivided attention. The opponent matters. So does how the game is won. There is written protocol to guide the committee members if teams are comparable. They use tiebreakers to help sort it out -- and winning a conference title is one of them.
Never has the committee's No. 1 team fallen out of the top four -- but never has the field been so deep.
Here's how each Power 5 title game could impact the final ranking on Selection Day. The games are ranked in order of biggest possible impact:
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1. SEC: Alabama (11-1) vs. Georgia (12-0)
ESPN Analytics says: Georgia has a 53% chance to win.
If Georgia wins: The undefeated Bulldogs will lock up a spot in the CFP, which will give them a chance to win their third straight national title. The reason this game is No. 1 on the list, though, is because of how difficult it could be for the selection committee if they don't.
If Alabama wins: The Tide will know by their 4 p.m. ET kickoff if they should still be concerned about the Week 2 home loss to Texas, because the Big 12 championship game starts at noon. If Texas finishes as a one-loss Big 12 champion, and Alabama wins the SEC title, there could be a great debate in the committee meeting room about which team to choose if there isn't room for them both. Alabama's win against Georgia would be the best in the country -- assuming Georgia is still the committee's top team when the fifth of six rankings is revealed Tuesday. Even if Texas wins the Big 12, Alabama would have a stronger résumé after adding the Georgia win to it. Head-to-head results are only one of several tiebreakers the committee uses when teams are comparable. They also use strength of schedule, common opponents and conference titles. The biggest question would be how the committee weighs Alabama's résumé against the Longhorns' Week 2 win -- plus, which they think is the better team. How Alabama and Texas play in their respective championship games could also factor into the decision.
Then there's the issue of what to do with one-loss Georgia. It's going to be extremely difficult for the Bulldogs to make a playoff case without winning the SEC -- unless there are upsets in the other Power 5 conference championship games. The best-case scenario would be for Florida State and Texas to lose, which would leave undefeated Michigan, the Pac-12 champ, Alabama and Georgia. The committee could also consider one-loss Ohio State in this scenario, but Georgia has been ranked above the Buckeyes in each previous ranking.
2. ACC: Louisville (10-2) vs. Florida State (12-0)
ESPN Analytics says: Florida State has a 74% chance to win.
If Florida State wins: It would be extremely difficult for the committee to exclude the undefeated ACC champs -- even with a pedestrian performance by backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker. The Seminoles would have three wins against CFP top 25 teams, including No. 14 LSU, No. 24 Clemson and Louisville, which will probably still be a top-15 win after the loss to Kentucky. That would check two boxes for tiebreakers -- conference title and strength of schedule. And the tiebreakers are used only if the committee deems two teams comparable. If FSU is undefeated, it would be hard for the committee to deem it "comparable" to a one-loss team. If undefeated FSU does lock up a top-four spot, that means other contenders on the bubble will have had to get some help elsewhere.
It's possible FSU moves back into the top four on Tuesday night in the fifth ranking after Ohio State's loss, but the committee could keep the Noles at No. 5 right now and give one-loss Oregon a boost for beating ranked rival Oregon State. If that happens, remember it's a snapshot; the conference championship game results can change it again.
If Louisville wins: The ACC would be out of the playoff. A two-loss team has never made the playoff, and even a conference title wouldn't be enough for Louisville to overcome losses to Pitt and Kentucky. In addition to eliminating the ACC, a Florida State loss would open the door for another contender -- whether it's one-loss Ohio State, both Texas and Alabama as conference champs, or possibly Georgia as the SEC runner-up.
3. Pac-12: Oregon (11-1) vs. Washington (12-0)
ESPN Analytics says: Oregon has a 76% chance to win.
If Oregon wins: The Ducks would have a great chance to finish in the top four if they avenge their regular-season loss to the Huskies, but before anyone anoints them a semifinalist, let's see where they are in the fifth ranking. If one-loss Oregon is ahead of undefeated Florida State, that's a sign this committee values the Ducks' eye test over its résumé, and a conference title should cement a spot in the top four. Right now, Oregon has only one win against a CFP top 25 team, against then-No. 16 Oregon State. The four-loss Beavers should sink again on Tuesday night after their second straight loss.
Oregon's résumé would improve significantly if it beats a top-four Washington team to win the Pac-12, but what if one-loss Oregon is going against one-loss Texas and one-loss Alabama? The Tide would have defeated the committee's No. 1 team. Texas would have a win against the SEC champs. Undefeated Michigan would be in. Undefeated Florida State is likely in. Oregon's résumé would come under the microscope in a side-by-side comparison with Alabama, Texas, Georgia and Ohio State. According to ESPN's strength of record metric, Ohio State would rank higher than both Texas and Oregon, even if those teams finish as one-loss conference champions. Oregon's opportunity to prove to the committee it can beat Washington when it matters most will be critical.
If Washington wins: The undefeated Huskies would secure a playoff berth, their first since 2016 and second appearance overall. Oregon would be eliminated with a second loss.
4. Big 12: Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Texas (11-1)
ESPN Analytics says: Texas has an 88% chance to win.
If Texas wins: The Longhorns have to hope their conference title and résumé are enough to crack the top four for the first time all season. Texas is likely playing the lowest-ranked opponent of any contenders in a Power 5 championship game. The Longhorns have been looking up at the other Power 5 conferences in every ranking. Would a win against Oklahoma State change that? The reality is that Texas needs some help. Even with a conference title, the Longhorns' strength of record would rank behind every other Power 5 champ. With K-State losing to Iowa State on Saturday, it's possible the Wildcats drop out of the top 25, leaving Texas with one regular-season win against a ranked opponent -- Bama.
The ideal scenario would be for Georgia to eliminate Alabama, and for Florida State to lose. That would leave the committee with undefeated Michigan, the Pac-12 champ and Georgia. The fourth spot could be a debate with Ohio State, but the Longhorns' win at Alabama would still be better than Ohio State's wins against Penn State and at Notre Dame. The conference title would also be a tiebreaker. It's subjective, so there's no guarantee, but the protocol would tilt toward Texas.
If Oklahoma State wins: The Big 12 would be eliminated from the playoff because Oklahoma State has three losses. This would be particularly significant if Alabama wins the SEC because then the Tide wouldn't have to worry about being snubbed in favor of Texas because of the loss to the Longhorns. It could be very easy for the committee if Texas loses. The committee would then select the four remaining Power 5 conference champions assuming Michigan and Florida State both win and join the SEC and Pac-12 champs. Or, this could be one of several upsets that opens the door for Ohio State or somebody else.
5. Big Ten: Iowa (10-2) vs. Michigan (12-0)
ESPN Analytics says: Michigan has a 93% chance to win.
If Michigan wins: The undefeated Wolverines, rejoined by head coach Jim Harbaugh following his suspension, would win the Big Ten for a third straight season and secure a top-four finish. Michigan hasn't won three straight conference titles since 1990-92. If Georgia is No. 1 again on Tuesday night, the only way it would seem Michigan moves into the top spot on Selection Day would be if Alabama wins the SEC. It matters only because of seeding, as the committee won't put the No. 1 team at a geographical disadvantage in a semifinal, and of course because the top team plays the No. 4 team.
If Iowa wins: Good gawd. There's a reason this game is last on the list. The Wolverines are a 23-point favorite at ESPN BET, the largest in a Big Ten title game. Iowa's offense has become a punch line in college football, which is unfortunate because it has overshadowed one of the nation's best defenses. If, somehow -- maybe through turnovers that create a (really) short field? -- Iowa pulls off what would be a stunning upset, one of two things would happen: The Big Ten would be eliminated or Ohio State would move into the top four. The latter would depend on what happens elsewhere. The Pac-12 champ would be in, along with the SEC champ. So would undefeated Florida State. The committee would then have to decide between Big 12 champ Texas, one-loss Ohio State or possibly SEC runner-up Georgia. In that scenario, though, Texas would have something Georgia did not -- a win against the SEC champs. This is another scenario that favors Texas, and leaves the Big Ten out.