November is when almost all of the things we remember about a given season tend to happen. The first two months are fun and eventful, and they certainly set the table for what's to come. But what's to come is what matters. And if we're going to remember the 2023 season because of any sort of chaotic street, if things are going to get messy, it's probably going to be because of Week 10.
No. 1 Georgia and No. 8 Alabama are hosting top-15 opponents that, if you squint just right, match up pretty well. No. 7 Texas and No. 9 Oklahoma have to beat the two hottest teams in the Big 12. No. 5 Washington has to again don its track shoes against a USC team awfully used to track meets.
Aside from Oklahoma-Kansas last week, "Top teams look vulnerable but find a way to win anyway" has been a general theme for 2023, but nonsense still has a chance to reign. Here's everything you need to follow during a potentially volatile Week 10.
Jump to a section:
SEC showdowns | Order in the Big 12?
USC's last stand? | Who's vulnerable?
Best bets | Week 10 playlist | Small school showcase
It's SEC time
No. 12 Missouri Tigers at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (3:30 p.m., CBS)
No. 14 LSU Tigers at No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (7:45 p.m., CBS)
By Saturday night, either the SEC race will have been thrown into absolute chaos or it will have basically ended. If Missouri upsets Georgia in Athens for the first time since 2013, it will set up a mad, two- or three-team dash toward the SEC East title. If LSU knocks off Alabama in Tuscaloosa, it could create a three-way logjam atop the SEC West. And if the favorites win, we're almost certainly looking at Georgia vs. Alabama again in the SEC championship game.
SP+ projections give us a 50% chance of chalk, a 43% chance of an upset and a 7% of a glorious pair of upsets that flip the league upside down. Unless you're a Georgia or Bama fan, I bet I know what you're rooting for.
It's hard to preview Georgia games. We can talk about stats and averages and where the Bulldogs might seem vulnerable, but really the first question is always: Which Georgia shows up? Since Missouri is 7-1 and 12th in the College Football Playoff rankings, it's fair to assume it'll be Good Georgia. The Bulldogs have played two teams in the SP+ top 40 and have beaten them by an average of 30 points, overachieving against SP+ projections by 17.3 points per game. Against everyone else, they've sleepwalked through the early going and underachieved projections by 10.7 PPG.
If a team is ever going to beat Georgia again -- the Dawgs have won 25 games in a row and 41 of the past 42 -- it will almost certainly be because they were able to hit on a couple of big shots downfield, and they were able to make Carson Beck far more uncomfortable than usual.
In a sense, Missouri actually provided the blueprint for this a year ago in a near-upset in Columbia. The Tigers' defense attacked the line of scrimmage with vigor and dared Georgia's Stetson Bennett to beat tight coverage with downfield passing. Meanwhile, Missouri generated five gains of 25-plus yards and held a 10-point lead with 10 minutes left before Georgia charged back to win 26-22. That Mizzou settled for five field goals saved the Dawgs, but the Tigers are better in the red zone this season, and Georgia's defensive front isn't as immortal as usual.
Missouri's offense is led by a diverse skill corps duo of former blue-chipper Luther Burden III and former Division II star Cody Schrader. Burden drove Missouri's early run of success and is on pace for about 1,500 receiving yards. But Schrader, who rushed for 89 yards against Georgia last season, has been key to closing out wins: He averages 4.8 yards per carry in the first half and a whopping 6.6 in the second.
Georgia has enough talent that injuries don't seem quite as costly, but following the loss of star tight end Brock Bowers for a few weeks, it was still noteworthy to see how Beck would perform without his security blanket. Against Florida, Georgia scored 43 points at 7.3 yards per play -- it's fair to say he did pretty well.
Bowers was basically replaced with wideout Ladd McConkey, who himself missed the first month of the season with an injury. McConkey caught six balls for 135 yards and the Dawgs cruised.
Beck also looked downfield a bit more. He completed 10 of 11 passes thrown 10 to 20 yards downfield, stretching the Florida defense in a way it didn't expect.
Beck went 0-for-3 on passes of 20-plus yards, however, and he got hit more. Florida's 27.6% pressure rate and 30.3% contact rate were much higher than Georgia's season averages. Missouri's pass rush is much better than Florida's, and it plays the best and most frequent man coverage Beck has seen. Mizzou might be able to make him uncomfortable.
It's easy to assume that Georgia ignites early and puts this one away quickly. It's what the Dawgs do. But Mizzou has some matchups it could win if it weathers the early storm.
Current line: UGA -15 | SP+ projection: UGA by 14.8 | FPI projection: UGA by 14.5
One of these things is true, and I can't decide which.
Possibility No. 1: LSU's defense has figured things out. The Tigers allowed a dreadful 36.8 points per game against their first five FBS opponents, but they allowed just seven points in the last five drives of the Missouri game -- a potential season-turning 49-39 comeback win -- and they allowed 18 combined points against Auburn and Army, 23.6 fewer than projected. That's how turnarounds start.
Possibility No. 2: LSU just dominates lesser offenses. Against teams outside of the offensive SP+ top 20, the Tigers have allowed 14.6 points per game and 4.8 yards per play this season. But against three top-20 attacks (Florida State, Ole Miss and Missouri), they've allowed 46.3 PPG and 7.8 yards per play.
For all of Alabama's offensive volatility, the Tide still rank 18th in offensive SP+. If Possibility No. 2 is true, then even with Jayden Daniels playing Heisman-level ball, LSU is going to struggle to make enough stops to win Saturday night. But if Possibility No. 1 is true, and LSU's defense really is surging, this game is a straight toss-up.
Alabama's offensive limitations haven't really gone away. Since Jalen Milroe officially won the quarterback job after three weeks, the Tide have averaged 29.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play -- solid but unspectacular. They trust their running game more than it really deserves, and Milroe takes nonstop pressure and sacks when he drops back to pass. But he's been increasingly safe with the ball, and 29% of Bama's completions go for 20-plus yards, third nationally. Bama's offense is basically built around three- and 30-yard gains, and it works just well enough to allow the Tide defense to take center stage.
LSU's offense is easily the best that Bama has faced. At this exact moment, it might be the best in the country. LSU ranks third in offensive SP+ but has overachieved offensive projections by an average of 18.2 points over the past four games. Daniels would have my Heisman vote if I had one. He's fourth nationally in passing yards and fifth in non-sack rushing yards. He could pull off a Kyler Murray-esque 4,000/1,000 season.
It might be worth mentioning that (a) against the best defense they've faced (Florida State's) the Tigers managed only 24 points, seven after halftime, and (b) Bama's defense grades out quite a bit better than FSU's. But that game was two months ago, and Daniels has achieved a higher plane of existence at this point.
Bama ranks fourth in success rate allowed and generally avoids big plays. The Tide generate loads of pressure without blitzing much, and Daniels has been a bit more sack-prone this year. An awesome Bama front could take running back Logan Diggs out of the equation and put even more of a load on Daniels' shoulders. But if recent history -- and star receiver Malik Nabers' recent form -- is any indication, he might still make enough plays to pull an upset.
Current line: Bama -3 | SP+ projection: Bama by 5.8 | FPI projection: Bama by 4.5
Do the Big 12 powers restore order?
No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 22 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3:30 p.m., ABC)
No. 23 Kansas State Wildcats at No. 7 Texas Longhorns (noon, Fox)
Oklahoma's loss to Kansas last week gave us a five-way crush atop the Big 12 standings, and what once looked like a cruise for both the Sooners and Texas now looks like a bumpy ride. They could restore order this weekend, but it will require strong performances against opponents that are both smoking hot and part of that five-way tie.
Oklahoma State began 2023 just 2-2 with a shocking 33-7 thumping by South Alabama. But after a bye week, Mike Gundy & Co. put their offense in the hands of running back Ollie Gordon II, who suddenly turned into Melvin Gordon. He's averaged 250 rushing and receiving yards per game during a four-game Cowboys winning streak. The physical Cowboys defense gives up too many big plays but creates turnover opportunities, and OSU has leaped from 66th to 33rd in SP+ in a single month.
OU's angry and still has lots to play for. The Sooners are 7-1 and ninth in the CFP rankings, and this is likely the hardest regular-season game they have left -- win it, and they're in great shape to land in the Big 12 championship at 11-1. But they must steer out of a sudden skid. After a dramatic win over Texas, OU first narrowly avoided an upset by UCF, then fell to KU. The offense has taken a step backward, and the defense's glitches are growing far costlier.
Injuries could play a role here. OU star linebacker Danny Stutsman left the Kansas game with injury and could be a game-time decision, and as could Tawee Walker, easily the most explosive of the Sooners' running backs. OSU's receiving corps is also extremely banged up, but if the Pokes pull an upset, it probably won't be because of the passing game.
Current line: OU -6 | SP+ projection: OU by 8.9 | FPI projection: OU by 12.9
Texas might have an even tougher task. Kansas State fell via a 61-yard walk-off field goal at Missouri and suffered a turnover-plagued loss at OSU. But the Wildcats' six wins have come by an average score of 42-11, and they destroyed TCU and Houston by a combined 82-3 to jump to 13th in SP+. It's a fluke that they have two losses, and the CFP committee should have ranked them much higher.
Texas is the best team the Wildcats have faced, and the Longhorns are justifiably favored. But now's exactly when you want to play them. They cruised past BYU last Saturday 35-6 in their first game without injured quarterback Quinn Ewers, but that was mainly due to a defense that allowed just 4.4 yards per play, forced three turnovers and gave the offense spectacular field position: Three of UT's four offensive touchdowns came on drives that started inside the BYU 40.
In his first start, backup quarterback Maalik Murphy ... looked like a first-time starter. He threw a pick and took an 18-yard sack, and only six of his 25 passes traveled more than 10 yards downfield. K-State has roughed up a few backup quarterbacks in 2023, and this will be one hell of a test for Murphy (or, theoretically, blue-chip freshman Arch Manning).
The Horns have leaned on the best line play in the conference, but KSU probably has the second best. And if quarterback Will Howard is avoiding the mistakes that were so costly against OSU, then with help from situational freshman QB Avery Johnson and running backs DJ Giddens and Treshaun Ward, the Wildcats could make enough big plays to force Murphy to respond. And that could make an upset a distinct possibility.
Current line: Texas -4 | SP+ projection: Texas by 7.0 | FPI projection: Texas by 6.3
USC's last stand
No. 5 Washington Huskies at No. 21 USC Trojans (7:30 p.m., ABC)
USC briefly had the numbers fooled. Lincoln Riley's Trojans beat their first three opponents (SJSU, Nevada and Stanford) by an average of 59-17, flashing the same dominant offense as ever and providing at least a little more spice in defense after two years ranked 80th or worse in defensive SP+. They were first in offensive SP+ and a solid 49th in defensive SP+. They were fifth overall.
Nine games in, the Trojans are still No. 1 in offensive SP+. Caleb Williams is completing 68% of his passes at 14.0 yards per completion with 25 touchdown passes, tied for most in the nation. But the defense has underachieved against projections by 17.3 points per game over the past six. SP+ was indeed fooled. USC's won twice while allowing more than 40 points and allowed 41 points per game in two losses. In seven years as a head coach, Lincoln Riley has fielded a good defense for about half a season -- the back half of 2020, when Oklahoma's D was a legitimate top-20 unit.
With the cracks that Washington has shown of late, however, USC might be able to win a Saturday evening track meet in L.A.
The Washington offense has still been mostly fantastic, aside from the weird, turnover- and field goal-laden egg against Arizona State two weeks ago. The Huskies make as many big plays as anyone, even with star slot man Jalen McMillan constantly battling injuries. Michael Penix Jr. is sixth in Total QBR and, projected over 14 games, on pace for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk have the fourth- and eighth-most receiving yards in the country. But the Huskies have also underachieved against defensive projections in four of their last five games and boast one of the least disruptive defenses in the country. They're 130th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), 118th in pressure rate and 131st in sack rate. Even with a fun, active secondary, they're 115th overall in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play), and if you give Williams time to beat you, he'll do so.
With a brutal November homestretch -- at USC, Utah, at Oregon State, Washington State and then perhaps a rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship -- Washington needs to save its mulligan for as long as possible. Losing to USC would hurt quite a bit.
Current line: Washington -3 | SP+ projection: Washington by 2.5 | FPI projection: USC by 1.4
Who's vulnerable?
Last week, I pooled together all the games in which top-ranked teams were favored by healthy margins, pointed out that SP+ only gave the six heavy favorites a 36% chance of all winning ... and almost looked prescient as both Penn State (against Indiana) and Washington (against Stanford) had to come up with late heroics to salvage wins.
We've got a similar situation this week, with four top-six teams favored by double digits on Saturday. SP+ says there's a 68% chance of all four winning ... which means there's basically a one in three chance of a big upset. Is there a particularly vulnerable team in this bunch?
No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (noon, CBS)
Ohio State's projected win probability: 86%. This is a game in which the defenses hold the rankings advantage on both sides of the ball, but it probably goes without saying that Ohio State's offense has a much better chance of finding matchup advantages than Rutgers' does.
Current line: Buckeyes -18.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 18.4 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 20.9
Purdue Boilermakers at No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Michigan's projected win probability: 98%. As the Michigan Spygate scandal began to unfold, the Wolverines showed no sign of distraction in destroying Michigan State 49-0. Maybe distractions will eventually seep in, but for now, I have no reason to doubt this wrecking ball. If Purdue lost to Ohio State by 34 and Nebraska by 17, Michigan could beat the Boilermakers by whatever margin it chooses.
Current line: Michigan -32.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 36.1 | FPI projection: Michigan by 32.8
No. 4 Florida State Seminoles at Pittsburgh Panthers (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
Florida State's projected win probability: 86%. Recent form suggests this should be more like 105%. Pitt has collapsed since upsetting Louisville, falling to Wake Forest, then getting absolutely erased by Notre Dame. Florida State is most likely better than Notre Dame. Expect some pain.
Current line: FSU -21 | SP+ projection: FSU by 18.8 | FPI projection: FSU by 21.1
Cal Bears at No. 6 Oregon Ducks (5:30 p.m., Pac-12)
Oregon's projected win probability: 94%. I really enjoy Cal's offense (when it shows up), but the Golden Bears are exactly the type of team Oregon has pummeled mercilessly this season. The Ducks beat Colorado and Stanford by matching 42-6 scores, and this one feels like it could easily be something in the 49-20 neighborhood.
Current line: Oregon -24.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 26.8 | FPI projection: Oregon by 23.0
My favorite bets
What stinks about going through a run of bad luck and bad beats when you're making decent picks early in the season is (a) losing stinks, and (b) you're going to miss those good picks when you go through a genuine slump. And friends, we're in a slump. An "If you had bet against me for the last two weeks, you'd have gone 8-2" slump. Just whiffing constantly. Good times.
So we're going back to basics. I'm not picking any point totals because I inevitably pick unders that result in me rooting against points. Points are fun. If I'm going to keep losing, I at least want to enjoy myself.
Kentucky (-3.5) at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m., SECN). SP+ projection: Kentucky by 6.3. Kentucky's better than its three-game losing streak suggests, and Mississippi State has underachieved against projections for six of the last seven games.
Purdue at No. 3 Michigan (-32.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC). SP+ projection: Michigan by 36.1. Let's put it this way: SP+ projects a 43-7 Michigan win, and ... doesn't the seven feel like as much of a reach as the 43?
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State (-3) (6 p.m., ESPN+). SP+ projection: NMSU by 9.3. MTSU is forever a wild card, capable of nearly beating Missouri one week and getting blown out by WKU the next. But NMSU's won four in a row and is playing to reach bowl eligibility for the second straight year. I say they get it done.
No. 15 Notre Dame (-3) at Clemson (noon, ABC). SP+ projection: Notre Dame by 4.6. Clemson is a bit underrated at the moment -- four close losses do not a bad team make. But Notre Dame has been spectacular over the past two games and has both a better offense and better defense.
California at No. 6 Oregon (-24.5) (5:30 p.m., Pac-12). SP+ projection: Oregon by 26.8. Cal foiled my USC best bet last week, but we're doubling down for one reason: Oregon plays defense. The Ducks should put up plenty of points like the Trojans did, but while actually making stops.
Week 10 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both informational and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Boston College at Syracuse (7:30 p.m., ESPN). After winning the first four games of the season by an average score of 44-11, Syracuse has lost the past four by an average of 38-9. Any hope for a turnaround just about dies with a loss here. Meanwhile, with four straight wins after a dismal start, BC is pulling an anti-Cuse and is on the cusp of bowl eligibility.
Current line: Syracuse -3 | SP+ projection: Syracuse by 6.9 | FPI projection: Syracuse by 9.8
Early Saturday
No. 15 Notre Dame at Clemson (noon, ABC). Notre Dame-Clemson, relegated to Playlist status! It's jarring, and it's primarily because Clemson's close-game recipe has suddenly failed the 4-4 Tigers.
For the past decade, the Tigers had the best record in the country in one-score finishes -- they won almost 80% of them (30-8). The recipe seemed straightforward: Keep things simple, don't make the big mistake and ... be more talented than the other team. With talent advantages having seemingly dissipated, Dabo Swinney is finding that playing things safe doesn't work quite as well. They need to take a few more risks and don't seem to know how to, but they'll need to figure it out on Saturday because the Fighting Irish are better on paper and smoking hot.
Current line: Irish -3 | SP+ projection: Irish by 4.6 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.7
Texas A&M at No. 10 Ole Miss (noon, ESPN). SP+ has had a great read on the Aggies and Rebels in 2023 -- they began the year 16th and 17th, respectively, and now they're 17th and 16th. If that continues, this one should be awfully entertaining. (At 10th in the CFP rankings, however, Ole Miss probably wouldn't mind scoring some style points.)
Current line: Ole Miss -4.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 3.0 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 5.0
Arizona State at No. 18 Utah (2 p.m., Pac-12). The defenses appear to have the advantages in this one. It's probably too late for 2-6 ASU to make much of 2023, but the Sun Devils have played some bright football in recent weeks. After huge games against USC (a win) and Oregon (a loss), can Utah rally and see this one out?
Current line: Utah -11.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 17.3 | FPI projection: Utah by 17.9
Nebraska at Michigan State (noon, FS1). Since a rough Week 2 loss to Colorado, the only team Nebraska has lost to is Michigan. The Huskers will still be quite involved in the Big Ten West race if they can avoid a slipup in East Lansing. Michigan State hasn't really shown much interest in tripping anyone up of late.
Current line: Nebraska -3.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 3.3 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 1.1
Kennesaw State at Sam Houston (1 p.m., ESPN+). In Sam Houston's first FBS season, the Bearkats have been awfully competitive, losing only once by more than 14 points and going down to the wire with four of their past five opponents. But they're 0-4 in those games and 0-8 overall. They deserve to avoid a winless campaign, and this is the most likely victory remaining on the schedule.
SP+ projection: SHSU by 10.6 | FPI projection: SHSU by 14.3
Saturday afternoon
No. 11 Penn State at Maryland (3:30 p.m., Fox). Penn State opened the week favored by double digits, but this line has shrunk. Star pass-rusher Chop Robinson -- a Maryland transfer -- is questionable after missing last week's game, and the Nittany Lions could be vulnerable. But that's only true if September Maryland shows back up. October Maryland went 0-3.
Current line: PSU -8.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 8.3 | FPI projection: PSU by 14.3
Army at No. 25 Air Force (2:30 p.m., CBSSN). Air Force is unbeaten and well-positioned for a Mountain West title, a potential New Year's Six bowl bid and, perhaps most importantly, a second straight Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. But Army has won four of the past six in this series and could bring brightness to a 2-6 season by ruining the Falcons' plans.
Current line: AFA -18.5 | SP+ projection: AFA by 22.0 | FPI projection: AFA by 17.9
Virginia Tech at No. 13 Louisville (3:30 p.m., ACCN). After a dire 1-3 start, Virginia Tech has played excellent ball to move to 4-4 and stay alive in the ACC race. Beating Louisville, however, might be a bridge too far. The Cardinals have been otherworldly at home and have an ACC title -- and a high CFP ranking -- to shoot for.
Current line: Louisville -9.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 12.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 11.5
James Madison at Georgia State (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). After a frustrating rivalry loss to Georgia Southern, GSU needs to pull an upset here to keep its Sun Belt hopes alive. JMU, of course, is ineligible for the title, but the Dukes are four wins from an incredible 12-0 finish in their second FBS season.
Current line: JMU -5.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 5.9 | FPI projection: JMU by 2.4
Iowa at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Iowa mercifully announced this week that Brian Ferentz won't be returning as offensive coordinator next year. I can't decide if the proper (read: funnier) tribute, then, would be an out-of-nowhere 40-point explosion here or a 5-3 rock-fight win. I know which one is more likely, anyway ...
Current line: Iowa -5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 11.4 | FPI projection: Iowa by 11.3
Saturday evening
No. 21 Kansas at Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). It feels like Iowa State's defense -- the primary reason the Cyclones are part of that five-way tie atop the Big 12 -- is the last thing quarterback Jason Bean and a hungover Kansas might want to face after last week's big win over OU. If the Jayhawks are at all mistake-prone, ISU will pounce. Of course, the Cyclones will still have to score. Their offense has improved, but it's still not great.
Current line: ISU -2.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 2.9 | FPI projection: ISU by 1.6
SMU at Rice (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). Over the last three games, SMU has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 31.1 points per game. The Mustangs absolutely destroyed Temple and Tulsa teams that were already in the process of falling apart, but now they face JT Daniels and a Rice team that gave Tulane hell last week and, at 4-4, still has bowl eligibility to fight for.
Current line: SMU -12 | SP+ projection: SMU by 13.2 | FPI projection: SMU by 16.4
Late Saturday
No. 16 Oregon State at Colorado (10 p.m., ESPN). Colorado might be an underdog in each of its last four games, but it needs two wins for bowl eligibility. Oregon State is a much better team but has underachieved against projections in three straight road games. Sounds like a potentially solid Pac-12 After Dark affair to me.
Current line: OSU -13.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 16.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 12.5
No. 19 UCLA at Arizona (10:30 p.m., FS1). Arizona turned into a completely different team when Noah Fifita took over at QB. The Wildcats are up to 5-3 and, per SP+, have a 44% chance at finishing 8-4 or better. UCLA's defense has been outstanding for most of 2023, but the offense is inconsistent.
Current line: UCLA -3 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 4.3 | FPI projection: UCLA by 0.9
Boise State at Fresno State (10 p.m., CBSSN). Both teams are at 3-1 in Mountain West play, so the winner will still be well-positioned for a shot in the conference title game. Neither team has been trending well, but BSU pulled off an out-of-nowhere blowout of Wyoming last week. Maybe the start of a run?
Current line: Fresno -3 | SP+ projection: Fresno by 4.4 | FPI projection: Fresno by 3.3
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
D2: No. 7 Ferris State at No. 9 Davenport (noon, FloSports). Defending national champ Ferris State's blowout loss to Grand Valley State probably cost the Bulldogs a bye in the D-II playoffs, but a win over still-unbeaten Davenport would still assure them a spot in the field. Davenport creates a ton of negative plays, though, and might be more capable than usual of disrupting the favorites' plans. SP+ projection: Ferris State by 14.0.
FCS: No. 10 North Dakota State at No. 1 South Dakota State (3 p.m., ESPN+). Losses to South Dakota and North Dakota are a pretty clear sign that NDSU isn't quite as superpowered as usual. But the Bison have won a pair of blowouts of late, and they're still second in FCS SP+. Can they score a Dakota Marker upset, or is South Dakota State just too damn good at this point? SP+ projection: SDSU by 10.8.
FCS: No. 7 Sacramento State at No. 3 Montana (7 p.m., ESPN+). Every week features an incredible Big Sky nightcap at this point. Last week, Idaho took down an awesome Montana State team. This week, Montana, winner of four in a row (including at Idaho), faces a 6-2 Sac State team that has beaten Stanford and only lost to Idaho and Montana State. SP+ projection: Montana by 3.4.