GRAPEVINE, Texas -- Statement wins won again. The College Football Playoff selection committee holds wins against ranked opponents in high regard, and Ohio State's two top-15 wins -- against No. 11 Penn State and No. 15 Notre Dame -- helped boost the Buckeyes to the top spot in the first of six rankings.
Don't get too comfortable, though.
Back-to-back national champion Georgia is right on their heels at No. 2 with a November slate that could catapult them back to the top. Georgia's next three games are against CFP-ranked teams, starting Saturday against No. 12 Missouri and followed by No. 10 Ole Miss and No. 17 Tennessee.
Georgia's wins against Kentucky and Florida, while both unranked three-loss teams, were still more valuable in the meeting room than No. 3 Michigan's best win, which is against 6-2 Rutgers. Undefeated Florida State earned the No. 4 spot, but it's only win against a ranked opponent is No. 14 LSU. That could put some pressure on the Noles to remain perfect.
Meanwhile, the Pac-12 is well-represented with six ranked teams -- but none in the top four. With the most critical games still remaining, the jockeying for position will continue, but here's a look at what the first ranking truly revealed:
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What a 12-team playoff would look like
Pac-12 on the outside looking in, for now
After unconvincing wins in each of the past two weeks, No. 5 Washington was the lone undefeated Power 5 team left out of the initial top four. That doesn't mean the league is in trouble, especially since No. 1 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan will play each other, guaranteeing somebody above the Huskies a loss.
No. 6 Oregon is also the nation's highest-ranked one-loss team, and No. 16 Oregon State, No. 18 Utah, No. 19 UCLA and No. 20 USC show the league's depth. Much like last year, the Pac-12's top contender will have a strong résumé because so many of the conference opponents are CFP top-25 teams.
Much like Georgia, Washington's November schedule is tailor-made to impress the committee with games against three straight ranked opponents -- No. 20 USC, No. 18 Utah and No. 16 Oregon State.
The Ducks also still have to face USC and Oregon State, and it's possible Washington and Oregon meet again in the Pac-12 title game.
The SEC is still strong with three top-10 teams
After a sluggish start in which Alabama lost in Week 2 to Texas and Georgia overcame some lackluster performances, the SEC is in a familiar position with the most top-10 teams of any Power 5 conference -- three in No. 2 Georgia, No. 8 Alabama and No. 10 Ole Miss.
While Georgia's schedule is backloaded, Alabama might only have one more opportunity against a ranked opponent during the regular season to impress the selection committee -- Saturday against No. 14 LSU. Alabama is in must-win mode. It can't afford a second loss, and it has to worry about the head-to-head loss to No. 7 Texas, which the committee honored in its first ranking.
The selection committee also compares common opponents, so if they are looking at Alabama and Florida State side-by-side, they will also look at the results against LSU. Alabama has something FSU doesn't, though -- a top-10 win (against Ole Miss).
The Big 12 gets a boost
Oklahoma's chances of finishing in the top four as a one-loss Big 12 champ just got better. With Kansas, Oklahoma State and Kansas State ranked, the Sooners' loss to the Jayhawks doesn't look so bad, and they can help compensate for it this weekend with a top-25 win against Oklahoma State.
Of course, it could also be a Catch-22, and the Sooners could knock their Bedlam rivals out of the next ranking with a win. The same scenario could unfold for Texas, which faces No. 23 K-State at home Saturday. It's certainly an upgrade over the scenario in which the only two Big 12 teams ranked were the ones that are leaving for the SEC next year.
The pressure is on Florida State to possibly finish undefeated
The ACC has only two ranked teams -- No. 4 Florida State and No. 13 Louisville. They don't play each other during the regular season. With Clemson now a four-loss team, and North Carolina and Miami both with multiple losses, the league has taken a hit, and that impacts the Seminoles' strength of schedule.
It's the opposite of what's occurred in the Pac-12. That could mean Florida State has to finish as an undefeated ACC champion in order to stay in the top four -- especially with the Pac-12's two best teams right behind it.
FSU's remaining games are against Pitt, Miami, North Alabama and Florida -- unranked opponents with a combined record of 17-15. FSU fans should be rooting for LSU against Alabama on Saturday and the rest of the way, because they will need that statement win to continue to resonate with the committee through Selection Day.
No. 24 Tulane is in the lead for a New Year's Six bowl
Much to the dismay of undefeated No. 25 Air Force, the committee rewarded Tulane for a stronger schedule. The highest-ranked Group of 5 champion is guaranteed a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl. Tulane is undefeated in the American Athletic Conference, and its lone loss was to No. 10 Ole Miss. Air Force has the No. 131 strength of schedule out of 133 teams, according to ESPN Analytics.
What a 12-team College Football Playoff would look like
Beginning next year when the College Football Playoff moves from four teams to 12, the top four Power 5 conference champions will receive first-round byes. Going off the initial selection committee rankings, that would include No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten), No. 2 Georgia (SEC), No. 4 Florida State (ACC) and No. 5 Washington (Pac-12).
A sign of what's to possibly come in the expanded format: No. 3 Michigan wouldn't get a first-round bye because the Buckeyes presumably would have won the league and would be the highest-ranked Big Ten team.
Here's what the first-round matchups would look like:
No. 24 Tulane at No. 3 Michigan
The Green Wave would be the highest-ranked team from a Group of 5, one spot ahead of unbeaten Air Force. Tulane's reward? A first-round playoff game in the Big House against a Wolverines team that would probably have a mighty chip on its shoulder after being robbed of a first-round bye.
While it might look like a mismatch on paper, remember the upstart Green Wave upset USC 46-45 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at the end of the 2022 season. Tulane's only blemish this season was a 37-20 loss to Ole Miss in a game that was much closer than the score would indicate.
No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Oregon
The Nittany Lions would be the third team from the Big Ten East in the playoff, after presumably losing to both Michigan and Ohio State during the regular season. The Ducks have looked like the most complete team in the Pac-12 of late, with their only setback a 36-33 loss at Washington on Oct. 14. The Nittany Lions and Ducks have played only four times; Penn State won the most recent matchup 38-20 in the 1995 Rose Bowl.
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Texas
Texas would be the highest-ranked Power 5 conference champion without a bye, despite some all-too-familiar lobbying from its head coach. The Rebels would be the third SEC team in the field, narrowly beating out No. 12 Missouri and No. 13 Louisville for one of the last spots in the field. It would be a matchup of former Alabama offensive coordinators; Texas' Steve Sarkisian and Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin both worked as playcallers for Nick Saban while resurrecting their careers.
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Alabama
It wouldn't be a playoff without the Crimson Tide, and Saban would find plenty of ways to motivate his team after it was left out of the top four. The Crimson Tide and Sooners have met two other times in the postseason since 2014, and Alabama couldn't argue that its team didn't want to be there this time. The Tide routed the Sooners 45-34 in the 2018 Orange Bowl. Oklahoma upset Alabama 45-31 in the 2014 Sugar Bowl.
Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, it's hard to predict what the 12-team field might look like because of upcoming conference realignment. Oklahoma and Texas are joining the SEC next season. Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington are jumping to the Big Ten. California, SMU and Stanford are going to the ACC. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are moving to the Big 12.
If the initial rankings were in place a year from now, the expanded Big Ten and SEC would have 15 of the top 20 teams in the ranking. The highest-ranked team from another Power Four team would be No. 18 Utah from the Big 12. What would happen to No. 16 Oregon State, which currently doesn't have a conference home? Would the Beavers be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in the Mountain West? Notre Dame, which will remain an independent, would be left out at No. 15.
One thing is clear: The conference commissioners and the CFP have a lot of work to do over the next several months. -- Mark Schlabach