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ESPN Senior Writer- College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
With the first College Football Playoff rankings out, the postseason picture is a bit clearer, at least for the time being.
Despite its early-season loss to Texas, Alabama is still in the picture, checking in at No. 8, but the Tide have virtually no margin for error. That makes Saturday night's home game against surging LSU critical for Nick Saban and his team.
Washington was the only Power 5 unbeaten left out of the top four, and with its shaky performances the past couple of weeks, it's fair to wonder how long its record will remain unblemished.
Speaking of unbeaten teams dealing with issues, Michigan returns to the field after a bye week with a sign-stealing scandal hanging over its head. Can the Wolverines block out the distractions?
ESPN insiders Heather Dinich and Adam Rittenberg break down these topics and more, including the team outside the CFP top eight that could still make some noise and their upset picks for Week 10.
Jump to a section:
LSU's approach vs. Bama
Jalen Milroe's progression
Next unbeaten to fall
CFP sleepers
Michigan's mindset
Upset picks | Emptying the notebook
How does LSU's offense attack Alabama's defense?
Dinich: The same way it did last year -- with Jayden Daniels making explosive plays with his legs and his arm in clutch situations.
Remember, Alabama's defense was in his face all game last season, sacking Daniels six times, and he still took off for a 25-yard touchdown run in overtime -- and Alabama coach Nick Saban hasn't forgotten it. Saban said that happened because of busts up front in terms of gap control, and he knows his defense can't make similar mistakes again.
"He killed us last year," Saban said. "Overall, they execute their offense to perfection and it starts with him because he makes the right reads relative to runs and passes and zone option plays, and pass down plays. He's very good at reading coverages, makes quick decisions."
Alabama's defense also has to be ready for Notre Dame transfer running back Logan Diggs, who has been excellent at earning yards after contact.
Rittenberg: I'm glad you brought up the run game. LSU ranks 13th nationally in rushing offense, and both Diggs and Daniels, by far the team's main ball carriers, are averaging more than 5.5 yards per carry. Although some are still skeptical -- "They don't run the ball, besides the scramble ability for Jayden Daniels," a defensive coordinator who faced the Tigers told me -- LSU believes it can be solid enough in the run game. A big key is how sophomore tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. perform on the edges against Dallas Turner, Chris Braswell and Alabama's other edge rushers.
"They look like an LSU offensive line," an SEC coach told me. "So good luck stopping them. You've got to choose one of two things: You've either got to outscore them, which is what [Ole Miss] did, or you're going to try to milk the clock and hold possession."
Dinich: Alabama linebacker Deontae Lawson said it will be a big challenge for the Tide defense to make sure everyone has their gaps and knows who has Daniels in all situations. "Anytime you've got a mobile quarterback, it can be a challenge for the defense to stand and get the stop," Lawson said. "We just have to be sound and disciplined."
Of course, Lawson also pointed out the Tide get plenty of practice every day against their own QB. "He's a mobile quarterback as well," Lawson said of Jalen Milroe. "That's prep."
Rittenberg: Milroe is indeed good prep from a running standpoint, but he's not the passer Daniels has become. Although Daniels put up strong numbers last year -- 2,913 yards, 68.6% completions, 17 touchdowns -- he will obliterate those numbers this season. He already has eight more touchdown passes and averages more than four more yards per attempt (11.5) than he did in 2022. The nation's total offense leader has eclipsed 400 yards in four games after doing so just once last season (against UAB).
"The progress he's made in being able to progression-read and throw the deep ball with accuracy and all the things people took shots at him for, he's knocked them out of the park," an LSU source told me. "And he does it every week."
How has Jalen Milroe improved since being benched after the Texas loss?
Rittenberg: Milroe has more clearly defined what he is and what he isn't for Alabama's offense since the Texas game. His mobility remains a threat, although his rushing production has fallen off from the first four games (189 yards, 3.9 yards per carry) to the past three (minus-47 net yards on 28 attempts). He's not a volume passer, recording more than 14 completions just twice all season and hitting 20 only once (against Texas A&M). But his big-play ability is obvious, as he ranks No. 3 nationally in yards per pass attempt (10.6) and is tied for 18th in percentage of completions for 10 or more yards (54.5).
"A big running back," an SEC defensive coordinator told me. "He has a cannon, he can throw it down the field a ton, but he's obviously not the same as the kid they had [Bryce Young], but he can extend some plays, he's strong. If he takes off and a [defender] is not where he needs to be, he's got a chance to hit his head on the goalposts."
Dinich: Milroe's running ability is one of his top traits, but he'll be the first to tell you it's not his focus.
"It's funny," he said, "everyone mentions my running ability, but in the offseason all I do is throw. I do zero training when it comes to running. My intent when I'm on the field is to throw the ball. The ball can get there faster than my legs can on any drive. I just try to be a point guard with the football."
And he's done a noticeably better job of protecting it, with only one fumble lost this season. Last year, he started just one game and had four fumbles (two lost) and three interceptions.
The next undefeated Power 5 team to lose will be ...
Dinich: Washington. The Huskies have looked vulnerable in each of their past two wins, against Arizona State and Stanford -- and the hardest part hasn't even begun. The month of November will define the Huskies' season with what could be three straight games against ranked opponents, starting Saturday at USC and followed by Utah, Oregon State and Washington State. ESPN's FPI projects Washington with at least a 50% chance to win each of those -- except Saturday against the Trojans.
Rittenberg: I feel like Washington and Oregon have gone in opposite directions since their epic game in Montlake. Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was not sharp against Arizona State, and while he responded with four touchdown passes at Stanford, the defense struggled to contain the Cardinal's big-play passing game. Coaches have brought up Washington's imbalance on offense, as the team ranks 117th nationally in rushing yards per game (102.2) and 128th in rushing attempts (29.2). "I don't think they can run it great," a coach who faced Washington told me. "I don't think they want to run it great."
Dinich: You know who has run it great? Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson, who racked up 162 yards on the ground at Wisconsin, giving the Buckeyes' running game an enormous lift. The question is if Ohio State can put it all together in its regular-season finale against Michigan. One of those undefeated teams is definitely going down, I just think it will happen to Washington first by nature of the schedule.
Rittenberg: Washington's November slate is brutal with USC, Utah, Oregon State and then the Apple Cup with Washington State. Ohio State has many of its toughest tests in the rearview, although the turnpike takes the Buckeyes to Rutgers this week (see what I did there?). There are still questions around quarterback Kyle McCord, who had his first multi-interception performance last week at Wisconsin, and never really looked comfortable throwing to anyone other than Marvin Harrison Jr. "The quarterback's a good player, but he's just managing it right now," a Big Ten defensive coordinator told me. "It's not like he's C.J. Stroud back there."
As for Michigan, I still wonder what happens when the Wolverines finally face in-game adversity, which could come at Penn State. "Michigan might be the most complete team in the country," a Big Ten coach told me. "But they're going to have to prove it now."
Which team outside the top eight in the first College Football Playoff rankings has the best chance to go on a run?
Dinich: Oklahoma still has a chance, simply because its path to the Big 12 championship and a potential rematch with Texas is so realistic. (Then again, who thought the Sooners would lose to Kansas?) ESPN's FPI gives Oklahoma at least an 80% chance to win each of its remaining games. Oklahoma's biggest problem is that running the table might not be good enough, even as a one-loss conference champion that beat Texas twice. Other contenders will likely have stronger résumés, as Texas might be the only ranked opponent OU beats all season -- no matter how many times it happens.
Rittenberg: Louisville is 7-1 for the first time since 2016, and in position to challenge Florida State for the ACC title and a possible CFP spot. Although Jeff Brohm is known for offense and aggressive, creative playcalling, his first Cardinals team as head coach has been fueled by defense -- 19th nationally in points allowed, No. 9 against the run -- and a rushing attack led by Jawhar Jordan (12th nationally in yards per game). "It's important that you play complementary football," Brohm told me. "Of course, I'd love to throw it and put up a bunch of numbers and points, but at the same time, it's about getting first downs and points and controlling the ball and not turning it over. That's when we've been our best."
Louisville is coming off its first-ever shutout against a ranked opponent (23-0 over Duke). The Cardinals have won nine straight home games, and play three of their final regular-season games -- Virginia Tech, Virginia and Kentucky -- at L&N Stadium. Brohm isn't a typical first-year coach, either, given his roots at Louisville, which also has experience along both lines of scrimmage, in the secondary and with Jordan, quarterback Jack Plummer and others.
"We went out in the transfer portal and jelled it with the players we have," Brohm said. "It validates that your guys are playing hard, they're willing to do whatever it takes, because we've had some unselfish guys. They don't have to get eight catches a game, or 15 carries a game, or 25 completions a game. They know it's going to take everybody in order to win
"Play with confidence, play with conviction and cut it loose. That's all we've tried to do."
Will the sign-stealing accusations affect Michigan's on-field play?
Rittenberg: Before the season, I wrote about how Michigan had navigated numerous distractions -- Jim Harbaugh's NFL job flirtations, the Matt Weiss firing and investigation, the Shemy Schembechler debacle, the recruiting violations fallout and coach suspensions -- while still putting together its best stretch in a generation. Although the signal-stealing situation is different, especially since the alleged violations impact the current season, Michigan's response likely won't change.
Players talked to me about how they appreciated Harbaugh and other staff members, including strength and conditioning coach Ben Herbert, being direct with them about topics that could sidetrack their progress. "When it gets on Twitter, that doesn't bother us, we already knew," wide receiver Roman Wilson said. "It just feels better when Coach Harbaugh's straight-up with us." The caveat here is how much Harbaugh can really say, given the investigation, and how many layers this thing seemingly has.
Dinich: It didn't impact the Wolverines the first time Harbaugh flirted with the NFL. Or the second time. It also didn't impact them when he was suspended for the first three games of this season for NCAA violations during the COVID-19 season. Nor did it impact them when co-offensive coordinator Matt Weiss was fired for alleged "computer access crimes" -- which the FBI is now involved in. The FBI?! As if that weren't enough, don't forget about the embarrassing Shemy Schembechler situation. So no, the maize will be unfazed.
Rittenberg: They may actually be emboldened by all the attention and scrutiny, which isn't going away. "They've probably done a great job of using this as a battle cry," a former Michigan assistant under Harbaugh told me. "It's even making them probably bond together even more." A theme in my conversations about Connor Stalions and the alleged signal stealing is why Michigan even felt the need, although some coaches have brought up the CFP semifinal loss to TCU -- a game where the Wolverines truly looked out of sorts -- to show what happens when the edge is missing. I guess we'll find out how much Stalions mattered going forward.
Dinich: Indeed, and one Power 5 coach told me he is interested in seeing that too. What's unfortunate about this, Ritt, is that it's detracting from the spotlight that should solely be on players such as J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, Wilson, Junior Colson and Mike Sainristil. This is an issue out of their control, and it is a fantastic team that shouldn't have to bear the brunt of the mistakes the so-called grown-ups in the room made. Knowing how lengthy NCAA investigations typically are -- sometimes years -- it will be interesting to see if the Big Ten steps in here to expedite the process. With all of the incidents we have listed here, though, one wonders when Michigan will do something about Michigan?
What's your upset pick for Week 10?
Rittenberg: Arizona (+2.5) over UCLA. I'm so bad at these, HD, that I'm taking your upset winner from Week 9 before you can double down. Arizona quarterback Noah Fefita has been excellent alongside an attacking defense. Jedd Fisch is my pick for Pac-12 Coach of the Year, and his team showed it can win a low-possession, grind-it-out game against Oregon State. The Wildcats will use a similar formula this week against defense-driven UCLA. As a Pac-12 coordinator recently told me, "I don't think anybody wants to play those guys."
Dinich: USC (+3.5) over Washington. That's cool, Ritt, you can look at my paper in class, too. I'm going with the Trojans at home for two reasons: Caleb Williams and their ability to win the turnover battle. Those were the two keys to beating Cal, and will be the difference against a Huskies team that has lost the turnover battle in each of its past two games. Washington had four against Arizona State and two more against Stanford.
Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?
Dinich: Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said he does not have to use last year's near-victory against Georgia as motivation for his team this week. The Tigers lost 26-22 last year to the No. 1 Bulldogs after squandering a 19-12 lead entering the fourth quarter.
"Our guys are keenly aware of what happened last year," he said, "and this is a different team. It's a whole different scenario. They're not even the same team -- not that they're better or worse. They formed a new identity and we're not really the same team either."
Is this the best team he's had at Mizzou?
"Yeah," he said. "It's the best team I've had at Missouri. Absolutely."
Rittenberg: Kansas State is a confident bunch as it heads to No. 7 Texas this week, fresh off dominant wins against TCU (41-3) and Houston (41-0). The Wildcats' offense has gone through some bumps, including quarterback Will Howard's early turnovers and the challenge of replacing do-it-all star Deuce Vaughn, but the unit is figuring things out. They can lean on wideout Phillip Brooks, tight end Ben Sinnott and others in the passing game, and running backs DJ Giddens and Treshaun Ward have combined for 1,180 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
"We don't have just a straight-up difference-maker on the edge right now, so it's had to be a group effort. We've had to do some different things schematically," offensive coordinator Collin Klein told me. "Ben and Phil are in that 40-ish catch mark right now, DJ and Treshaun are splitting carries. That's what makes it hard to defend us because it's not like, 'Hey, take away this guy and gain some ground.'"
A key recent development has been freshman quarterback Avery Johnson sharing some snaps with Howard and sparking Kansas State's offense. He had five rushing touchdowns Oct. 14 against Texas Tech and threw touchdown passes against both Houston and TCU. Howard, meanwhile, has gone three games without an interception -- he had at least one in each of the first five contests, while adding 88 rushing yards on 13 carries the past two weeks.
Kansas State's QB run tradition goes back decades -- Klein rushed for 2,485 yards and 65 touchdowns -- and continues with Howard and Johnson.
"Coach [Chris] Klieman and I were joking that teams play us differently," Klein said. "There's certain pressures they can't bring and sleep at night, knowing you could run this guy or this play on third-and-10, instead of a traditional dropback scheme. Or they can't play man in situation A, B and C, and turn their head and run with guys down the field when they're worried about that quarterback potentially spitting out of there and running for 25."
• Clemson's offense enters Saturday's game against No. 15 Notre Dame ranked 63rd nationally in scoring (28.8 ppg) and 80th in yards per play (5.5). The Tigers haven't eclipsed 400 yards in their last four games, haven't averaged more than 5.4 yards per play against a power conference opponent and have averaged just 18 points in their last three games.
Clearly, the coordinator transition from Brandon Streeter to Garrett Riley hasn't made the desired impact so far. Coach Dabo Swinney remains a believer in quarterback Cade Klubnik, saying this week, "This kid's going to be amazing."
"He can make plays on his feet, he's got a good enough arm, he's still very young and he presses, he makes mistakes," an ACC defensive coordinator told me. "But he is a redshirt freshman. I just don't know with the amount of pressure that goes on with these jobs and these situations, if a kid like that will make it out of there."