Realignment hovers over college football, lingering like a party guest you can't nudge out the door.
It's essentially killed a league, the Pac-12, that's been around for a century. In the upcoming years, realignment will reverberate through every corner of the sport as it recalibrates from the seismic conference shifts.
Realignment is shaping the new 12-team playoff, redrawing the conventional geographic paradigms of college sports and testing the last ounces of the landscape's common sense.
Another nuanced aspect of conference realignment will reveal itself in the upcoming years. As we examine the coaching job market for 2023, it's impossible to ignore realignment's impact.
The league shifts move money, and the transfer of money means behavior patterns will inevitably change.
There's an annual joke about the realities of losing intersecting with fiscal common sense. And those limits will be tested in a year where potential openings at places like West Virginia, Syracuse and Indiana are the biggest brands the industry is watching.
How will the landscape evolve in the job market? Here are two questions that will illuminate the evolving landscape in what portends to be a light year in coaching changes, followed by a league-by-league look at who is under the most pressure this season.
1. Are traditionally difficult jobs like Northwestern and the potential opening at Indiana more attractive now that there's so much financial separation between the Big Ten and SEC and the other conferences?
We'll get some empirical evidence to test this notion in the upcoming months. The Northwestern job is already open after the firing of Pat Fitzgerald in the wake of hazing accusations during his time as head coach.
The Indiana job -- another definitive Big Ten have-not job -- could potentially open if Tom Allen has another poor year. The Hoosiers are 2-16 in league games the past two seasons, and Indiana's remarkable 6-1 league record in 2020 is becoming a distant memory.
An opening at Indiana would likely require a significant financial hit, as Allen would be owed $20.8 million at the end of the 2023 regular season. At the same time next year, the guaranteed money on his buyout drops to $7.95 million. (Indiana owed former basketball coach Archie Miller more than $10 million upon his firing.)
The question looms: Does the Big Ten's new television deal allow Indiana to act like Auburn? The Tigers have the biggest known public buyout in the $21.4 million they owed to Gus Malzahn.
Indiana and Northwestern both present an interesting litmus test for coaches in the Big 12 and the ACC, two leagues whose schools are projected to annually make $30 million less than the Big Ten and SEC.
Could one of those schools poach a coach from the disintegrating Pac-12? Like Oregon State's Jonathan Smith or Cal's Justin Wilcox? What about NC State's Dave Doeren, who has ties to the league? Or could Mike Elko be convinced to leave Duke? Would Baylor's Dave Aranda be tempted to return to the league where he was once an assistant?
It's uncertain if those names will ever gain real traction, as most have better situations geared toward winning. But now more than ever, future conference payouts are going to factor into these decisions.
And for Indiana and Northwestern, there's a better pitch -- their own places in the better neighborhood with the finances to afford a strong staff.
Indiana has three bowl wins in a century and a quarter of football. Northwestern went 60 years without a bowl win after the 1948 Rose Bowl. (Northwestern's elite $270 million facility, to the school's credit, will be an advantage in luring a coach.)
Will it help make them more attractive? The answer is muddled.
"To me, winning is the No. 1 thing you can do for your career," an industry source said. "No matter where it is. Winning at any level is still winning. Indiana and Northwestern are hard jobs. You are better off to win big at SMU than you are to go 6-6 at Indiana."
The worry for coaches and administrators in those leagues is the separation shows itself in different ways. It could be in staff salaries and size. It could be NIL, which helps stave off poachers from other leagues.
"The bigger issue I'd argue is the assistant pools," said an athletic director outside the Power 2 leagues. "The disparity is growing so much there. If you overpay on the head coach, you can't even pretend to pay the assistants."
But it's also naïve to ignore that an 18-team Big Ten and 16-team SEC will feature a growing gap between the blue bloods and those that traditionally populate the bottom. How attractive is the worst house in a nice neighborhood?
The other ripple is that a coach at a higher-end ACC or Big 12 job could stick around longer, as those leagues are going to continue to offer easier College Football Playoff access.
So how do coaches judge the Big Ten jobs? One source pointed out that when Mack Brown retires at North Carolina, that job will be coveted because that school is virtually assured of ending up in the Big Ten or SEC.
Said another industry source: "The evolution of everything isn't done. Eventually you want to be at one of the 35 or 40 programs playing a different game than everyone else. I think there's six to 10 moves to group that group going forward to whatever the evolution of college football is going to look like."
2. Is there such a thing as a buyout that's too big?
To be blunt, this carousel doesn't project as particularly interesting. We break down the jobs below that could potentially open. But the potential openings really are just reminders of how difficult those jobs are in the first place.
For some of the sexier jobs to open, there would need to be a test of what we'll call the Holgorsen Principle.
In a March interview with The Athletic, Houston coach Dana Holgorsen memorably dismissed concerns about his job being in danger. He said he had an "impossible" buyout and there "ain't no f---ing hot seat."
In reality, his buyout after last season was nearly $19 million, so that made any move with him in the wake of an 8-5 season difficult. But that bar around the sport is changing.
Holgorsen also offered a fascinating philosophical referendum to what an impossible buyout truly is. In the wake of owed buyouts like Malzahn's $21.4 million, Charlie Weis' reported $19 million from Notre Dame, Willie Taggart's nearly $18 million from Florida State and Ed Orgeron's $17 million from LSU.
For there to be major movement in 2023, there would have to be decisions that push buyout paradigms. The SEC has no obvious job openings on the horizon, and that league has typically been a market driver. The Big Ten has none outside Indiana.
The highest end of potential buyouts has never been higher. Jimbo Fisher is in a slump at Texas A&M after going 6-10 in the SEC the past two years. But could the Aggies really find $77.5 million to buy him out? Michigan State's Mel Tucker went 5-7 last year, but he'd also be owed $77 million to be fired after this season.
Schools spend tens of millions every season for coaches not to coach. An ESPN study found a half-billion in dead money in a span of just over a decade from 2010 to 2021.
So, what's the next limit to push now that schools paying more than $15 million has been normalized? (Not to mention the extra millions for the staff) Could it be Indiana at $20.8 million?
It's highly unlikely a school like Florida ($31.8 million) or Missouri and Cal (both nearly $20 million) make a move, as the buyouts are designed to give coaches time to build. It would be pretty shocking, but the price of sticker shock has evolved quickly in college football.
Holgorsen could end up as a litmus test for his own declaration, as he's owed about $14.8 million after this season and is entering a new league after a lackluster season.
How high is too high? If the limits of buyout paradigms aren't stretched this year, it'll be a relatively quiet year on the coaching carousel. And the fundamental tension is that we haven't had a quiet year in a while.
Here's a league-by-league look at what to look for on the coaching carousel this year.
American
Hot
Rice: Mike Bloomgren is 16-39 heading into Year 6. He's coming off a bowl game last year, earned via a 5-7 regular season and a strong program APR. It's the program's first bowl game since 2014 and just the 13th in 110 seasons. But the combination of Bloomgren's record, a new athletic director hired this summer and Rice entering a more difficult league in the AAC makes this a must-win year. The buyout is considered manageable at less than a million dollars.
Memphis: Ryan Silverfield is 21-15 at Memphis, a solid run at a program with a historical win percentage below .500 (347-355-8). The issue for Silverfield is the buzz Memphis gained with Justin Fuente and Mike Norvell has cooled, and that's hurt them in positioning for conference realignment. He'd be owed nearly $2.4 million, but an easy schedule and watered-down AAC offer a clear path to him pushing forward.
ACC
Hot
Syracuse: Dino Babers has two winning seasons in seven years, including a 7-6 season last year. Syracuse ended last year losing six of seven, however, squandering much of the momentum from a 6-0 start. Babers is 36-49 overall and has just one winning season in ACC play. His buyout will be less than $9 million at the end of the year, which is still a lot of money for a place like Syracuse. School officials have to ask themselves if they can upgrade with certainty.
Big 12
Hot
West Virginia: Neal Brown is 22-25 during his time at WVU, and he'd be owed $13 million if fired. (That would be paid out over six years, which makes it more manageable for the school.) First-year athletic director Wren Baker's history shows he'd be hesitant to fire Brown early in the season if the Mountaineers struggle. In 2021 at North Texas, Baker kept coach Seth Littrell after a 1-6 start, and the Mean Green ended up winning five in a row and reaching a bowl. Brown can position himself for a narrative change with a trip to Penn State and home game against Pitt in September.
Worth monitoring
Houston: Holgorsen has won 20 games the past two years. An early-season loss to UTSA essentially ended the career of Tony Levine at Houston, so Holgorsen faces a quick temperature rise if the underdog Cougars don't pull the upset in Week 1. This designation is as much an acknowledgement of Houston's institutional quick trigger as an indictment of Holgorsen. The first year in the Big 12 offers a rugged path, with Texas and TCU at home and trips to Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech and UCF. Patience is not a hallmark trait of power broker Tilman Fertitta, who has the money to help cover the $14.8 million.
Big Ten
Open
Northwestern: This job is obviously already poised to change with Pat Fitzgerald's firing. Interim David Braun attempts to cobble together a solid season in a program that's attempting to snap the country's longest losing streak (11 games). Can the combination of an early jump and a projected light year in the coaching market give Northwestern an edge finding a new coach? There's a century of bad football to remind the brass there what happens with a poor choice.
Hot
Indiana: We dove into Tom Allen's situation up top, as he'd be owed nearly $20.8 million after this regular season or more than half that ($7.95) next year. An interesting macro thought on the landscape -- does a school like Indiana anticipate new revenue distribution models after the current Big Ten deal expires following the 2029-30 school year? And does it act in accordance to position itself better? Much like Vanderbilt is investing in more than $700 million in facilities, is there an unspoken pressure on lower-rung programs in big leagues to invest or get left behind if there's new revenue splits?
Conference USA
Hot
UTEP: Dana Dimel has performed well in a tough job. He's 17-40 with one winning season in his first five years. The transfer portal has robbed him of a flurry of high-profile players, illuminating how difficult it is to win at the lowest levels of college football. And this is one of the hardest jobs in the sport. Dimel's buyout is tenable if this year trends down again, as he'd be owed just under $700,000.
Mid-American
Hot
Miami (Ohio): Chuck Martin enters his 10th season at Miami with just two winning campaigns over that span. He's shown James Bond-like escapes from the hot seat, with strong finishes bailing out difficult starts. Has Miami's patience worn out? He won the MAC in 2019, but there are questions whether the collective body of work (45-59 MAC) meets the school's expectations. He'd be owed $750,000 if fired after this year.
Worth monitoring
Ball State: Mike Neu is a beloved alum with strong ties to the school and a MAC title as recently as 2020. He's also had consecutive losing seasons since then, and just two bowl games and one winning season entering his eighth year. A new athletic director always brings new scrutiny, as Jeff Mitchell enters his first year in Muncie, Indiana. Neu is 33-48 overall and solid, but some progress in the MAC would help his case. His buyout is $750,000 and has just two years remaining after this year. Opening games at Kentucky and Georgia won't help.
Northern Illinois: Thomas Hammock is extended through the 2026 season, which makes any move a long shot. His recent tenure has been one of extremes, as Northern Illinois went winless in the COVID-19 season, won the MAC the following year and then fell to 3-9 last year. A buyout of $1.5 million is prohibitive at most MAC schools, even one with Northern Illinois' expectations. His overall record of 17-27 isn't up to Northern's standards, as it's considered one of the league's most invested programs.
Mountain West
Hot
New Mexico: It has been tough sledding for Danny Gonzales, as he's 7-24 in four seasons and the Lobos carry a nine-game losing streak into the season. This is another tough job that opens frequently for a reason, and the Lobos opener at Texas A&M looms as an ominous start. He'd be owed $900,000 if fired after this year. Hope comes in a softer schedule after that -- Tennessee Tech, New Mexico and at UMass in nonleague games.
Worth monitoring
Nevada: Ken Wilson's 2-10 start was not promising. The insertion of a new athletic director and some recent staff changes -- including two in recent weeks -- have put Wilson in a position where on-field improvement is needed. Early games at USC and at home against Kansas make it a tough September to find an identity.
Pac-12
None: Cal's uncertain finances make any potential move on Justin Wilcox untenable at more than $20 million. Oregon State holding onto Jonathan Smith will be worth monitoring.
SEC
None: As noted above, the buyouts in the league would have to defy conventional norms for whatever programs endure a bad season.
Sun Belt
Worth monitoring
Arkansas State: Butch Jones is 5-19 through two seasons, inheriting a tough situation. There's optimism about the young talent in the program, but results need to start showing soon. At all three of Jones' prior stops, there were breakthroughs in Year 3. The buyout of more than $1 million is an obstacle.
Georgia State: Shawn Elliott is 34-38 through seven years. After three straight bowl games from 2019 to 2021, Georgia State took a step back to 4-8 last year. In an increasingly competitive Sun Belt, can Georgia State dig out from that? It'd cost more than $1 million, which is big money in that league.