Following Georgia's pasting of TCU in Los Angeles last January, 32 Saturdays passed without college football. We got a nibble last weekend, but now Week 1 of the 2023 season is upon us. For all of the questions, big and small, that we've spent nearly eight months asking -- from "Can Georgia three-peat?" to "Can Caleb Williams pull an Archie Griffin?" to "Does Alabama have a QB?" down to "Who wins the ultracompetitive Sun Belt?" and "Who's this year's UConn?" (a.k.a. an out-of-nowhere bowl attendee) -- we will now begin to get partial answers.
I'm probably in the minority, but I prefer a decentralized Week 1. I don't want too many big headliners to keep track of -- I want to keep my head on a swivel and catch parts of as many games as humanly possible. For me, then, this weekend sets up perfectly. We get loads of medium-sized games on Saturday, followed by a prime-time main event with LSU-Florida State on Sunday. (And then we all go to Duke on Monday night, just for grins.)
Week 1 is a lot to keep up with. Let's dive into the key storylines:
Jump to a section:
LSU-FSU | UNC-South Carolina
Boise State-Washington | Colorado-TCU
Best bets | Weekend playlist
One heck of a headliner in Orlando
No. 5 LSU vs. No. 8 Florida State (Sunday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
You don't want to assume that a sequel will be better than the original. LSU and Florida State played one of the most delightful games of the 2022 season this time last year -- a 24-23 Seminoles win that saw LSU drive 99 yards in the final 80 seconds to score what appeared to be the score-tying touchdown, only to have the extra point blocked in walk-off fashion. (You should've gone for two, Brian Kelly.) But just because that game was awesome doesn't automatically mean Sunday night's affair in Orlando will be its equal, right?
With these stakes, however, it's hard not to get your hopes up. LSU begins the season fifth in the AP preseason poll, with a 19% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff, per ESPN Analytics. FSU is eighth and has a 7% chance that will likely jump considerably with a win in Orlando. Both teams boast dynamic quarterbacks -- LSU's Jayden Daniels, FSU's Jordan Travis -- with scrambling ability that makes your toes curl.
Both of these teams flashed top-five potential for about half of 2022. FSU lost three games in a row to fall to 4-3 before winning the last six games of the year with a suddenly untouchable offense. LSU followed up the FSU loss by winning nine of 10 and scoring a division title with an upset of Alabama. Kelly's Tigers stumbled late, with a loss to A&M and an SEC championship game thumping at Georgia's hands, but they humiliated Purdue 63-7 in the Citrus Bowl.
FSU's offense indeed found a rhythm down the stretch
After averaging 28.5 points against their first six FBS opponents -- solid but not exceptional -- the Seminoles averaged 42.2 points per game and 7.1 yards per play during their six-game winning streak. In that span, they ranked first nationally in points per drive (3.6), first in scoring drives per game (6.7), second in yards per dropback (8.8), second in three-and-out rate (8.6%) and third in gains of 20-plus yards per game (7.3). They were ninth in red zone touchdown rate (75.8%). They were ruthlessly efficient and never off-schedule, and since they were forcing far more three-and-outs than they were suffering, they dominated the field position game, too.
Travis was almost never uncomfortable in this stretch. He completed 67% of his passes at nearly 15 yards per completion, and he was spreading the ball everywhere -- no one averaged even three catches per game, and targets were split between Johnny Wilson (16 catches for 405 yards), Ontario Wilson (11 for 199), Kentron Poitier (eight for 143), Ja'hi Douglas (nine for 117), Malik McClain (10 for 115), tight ends Camren McDonald and Markeston Douglas (combined: 18 for 250) and backs Lawrance Toafili and Trey Benson (combined: 20 for 303). The wideouts stretched the defense and opened up vast spaces for checkdowns and easy passes. Meanwhile, Benson and Toafili averaged 138 rushing yards per game at 5.9 per carry (Benson averaged 4.2 after contact).
A lot of the pass-catchers are gone, but both backs, the Wilsons, Poitier and Douglas return, and a couple of key transfers -- Michigan State's Keon Coleman and West Virginia's Winston Wright (who missed 2022 with injury) -- could easily fill the empty shoes.
Now, they weren't facing great defenses in this stretch. Their last six opponents averaged just a No. 48 defensive SP+ ranking, and the best of the bunch (No. 27 Syracuse) held them to a more mortal 5.9 yards per play.
LSU is projected 14th in defensive SP+: It took a top-10 level offense for FSU to get one over on the Tigers.
LSU's defense vs. SP+ top-10 offenses: 40.3 points allowed per game, 6.5 yards per play LSU's defense vs. everyone else: 17.6 points per game, 5.0 yards per play
The Tigers did have one major deficiency that FSU will take serious advantage of if it hasn't been rectified: run defense. They missed injured star Maason Smith desperately and finished the year 88th in rushing success rate allowed. Smith is suspended for Sunday's game, but Kelly did sign some exciting interior-line reinforcements in Jordan Jefferson (WVU), Paris Shand (Arizona) and Jalen Lee (Florida) from the transfer portal. Oregon State linebacker Omar Speights also offers some immediate shop-wrecking potential as well.
If you can't knock FSU off schedule, I'm not sure anything else matters. But if the Tigers do, they could capitalize. The late-season explosion of Harold Perkins Jr. (last seven games: 12 TFLs, seven sacks) changed LSU's attacking potential significantly. FSU's offensive line was its best in years, but the Noles still ranked 75th in blown block rate, 102nd in pressure rate allowed and 106th in O-line penalties per game. With too many second- or third-and-longs, LSU will make Travis' life hell.
The quest for big plays
It's possible that both the FSU offense and LSU defense are quite a bit better than they were when they faced off last year. The same might be true of the reverse matchup. Despite playing two freshman tackles (Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr.), a transfer quarterback (Jayden Daniels), a former walk-on running back (Josh Williams) and a receiving corps heavy with freshmen and sophomores, LSU was somehow still ruthlessly efficient last year. The Tigers finished sixth in success rate (third rushing, 14th passing) and suffered the third-fewest three-and-outs. This has long been a tenet for Kelly's football teams -- efficiency is reliability. Continuity is high heading into 2023, and that's probably not going to make them less efficient. (That said, both Williams and Notre Dame running back transfer Logan Diggs are questionable for Saturday.)
The question for LSU this year is the same as last year: Can they make enough big plays? The Tigers ranked 101st in marginal explosiveness -- my measure for the magnitude of a team's successful plays, adjusted for down, distance and field position (translation: Did you gain eight or 28 yards on third-and-eight?) -- and FSU's defense ranked eighth. The Noles were able to pull off a solid bend-don't-break routine, playing reasonable passive defense until opponents fell behind schedule, then teeing off with a brilliant pass rush. Albany transfer Jared Verse and freshman Patrick Payton combined for 14 sacks, and they both return in 2023.
Like LSU, the Noles had issues with run efficiency. They also lacked in the lockdown corner department. Coach Mike Norvell attempted to address both issues through the transfer portal, bringing in Western Michigan DT Braden Fiske to pair with star Fabien Lovett, who, like Maason Smith, missed most of last season. Virginia corner Fentrell Cypress II has arrived to help with coverage, too. We'll see how much of a difference they make, but at the least FSU will still have that pass rush.
LSU had only three gains of 20-plus yards against FSU last season, and two were Daniels scrambles. Their three touchdown drives lasted 11, 11 and 15 plays, and they had eight- and 13-play drives that ended in field goal attempts. No easy points to be found. They limited FSU's own explosiveness reasonably well, but when you can't win the big-play battle you pretty much have to win the efficiency and red zone battles, and FSU's offense is really good at both of those.
Current line: LSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 4.4 | FPI projection: LSU by 6.2
This game sets up in an interesting fashion. On one hand, you could say that it might boil down to who can better knock the opposing high-efficiency offense off-schedule. On the other hand, we can almost assume that both offenses will be sharp and efficient, and the game might come down to which team generates the most big plays and easy points.
Regardless, the line looks about right to me. The computers like LSU, but any recent developments -- Smith's suspension, LSU's running back injuries -- seem to tilt the game back toward FSU a bit. Regardless, here's to hoping it once again comes down to a touchdown on the final play of regulation.
Big-armed QBs and tangy mayo in Charlotte
No. 21 North Carolina vs. South Carolina (7:30 p.m., ABC)
The Duke's Mayo Classic kicks off on Saturday evening, which means I'm contractually obligated to force you to watch Mike Golic Jr. and Anish Shroff eating mayo Oreos again.
.@mikegolicjr is unreal 😂 pic.twitter.com/kRRBHLqZIF
— ESPN (@espn) December 30, 2021
Sorry. Rules are rules.
Anyway, the game's a nice undercard for LSU-FSU in that there aren't any top-10 teams involved, but both have ambition and intriguing storylines. North Carolina is the third-highest ranked ACC team in the AP poll, South Carolina the third-highest SEC East team. Both teams hope to consolidate last year's improvement -- the Tar Heels jumped from 6-7 to 9-5, the Gamecocks from 7-6 to 8-5 with two huge late-season wins.
UNC's Drake Maye is the headliner in this game, but South Carolina's 2023 fate will be dictated by whether Spencer Rattler's late-year surge was real.
Rattler, first 10 games: 65% completion rate, 11.0 yards per completion, 8-9 TD-to-INT ratio, 45.1 Total QBR (Gamecocks: 28.6 points per game)
Rattler, last three games: 69% completion rate, 12.4 yards per completion, 10-3 TD-INT, 83.5 Total QBR (44.0 PPG)
After a maddeningly up-and-down season, Rattler exploded for a combined 798 yards as the Gamecocks upset both Tennessee and Clemson, completely flipping expectations after what seemed like a stagnant year for Shane Beamer's program.
Three games can be fool's gold. We fall for small samples all the time in this sport, and they're only sometimes meaningful. But Rattler does return, alongside receiver Juice Wells (20 catches for 308 yards and two touchdowns against Tennessee and Clemson) and a fancy set of newcomers: five-star freshman Nyck Harbor, receiver transfer Eddie Lewis (Memphis) and tight end transfers Trey Knox (Arkansas) and Joshua Simon (WKU). If new coordinator Dowell Loggains pulls the right strings, there's reason to be optimistic. (Both Wells and Lewis have been banged up in fall camp; we'll see how close to 100 percent they end up by Saturday.) The run game is a remodel, and there's reason to worry that an unimpressive defense won't get much better and won't stop Maye. But if this is a track meet, the Gamecocks could keep up.
There's one minor and one major obstacle to UNC having a huge season.
Minor obstacle: Change on offense. Chip Lindsey replaces Phil Longo as coordinator. His career as offensive coordinator at Southern Miss, Arizona State, Auburn and UCF (and as Troy's head coach) has been mixed, but his influences -- namely, UCF head coach Gus Malzahn -- are solid. It will be difficult to call bad plays for May, who threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns in 2022 while sprinkling in 902 non-sack rushing yards and seven more scores. But the run game was merely average, and Maye lost his top two receivers (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). Maye probably won't have Kent State transfer Tez Walker available (deemed ineligible but under appeal), so some combination of junior J.J. Jones, sophomore Kobe Paysour, Georgia Tech transfer Nate McCollum and blue-chip redshirt freshman Andre Greene Jr. will have to come up big. The athleticism's there, but there's just enough change to make you antsy.
Major obstacle: Maybe not enough change on defense. The Heels have averaged a 73.7 defensive SP+ ranking over the past three years. Coordinator Gene Chizik's first season back in Chapel Hill resulted in an extreme bend-don't-break approach (which is a kind way of saying the defense was dreadfully inefficient). The Heels will be far more experienced this year -- basically every lineman who mattered is back, linebacker Cedric Gray is good and Mack Brown brought in four veteran transfers for the secondary -- but they bear significant burden of proof. So does Chizik. UNC's understandably a slight favorite because of Maye and company, but recent history suggests the Tar Heels' defense will be the worst unit in this game.
Current line: UNC -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNC by 1.2 | FPI projection: UNC by 3.1
Does Washington get Boise'd? (And can Boise State still pull a Boise?)
Boise State at No. 10 Washington (3:30 p.m., ABC)
It's been 32 years since Washington both started and ended a season in the AP top 10. The Huskies are good at a nice sneak attack -- they jumped from 7-5 to 11-1 (No. 3 in the final polls) in 2000, from 7-6 to 12-2 (No. 4) in 2016 and from 4-8 to 11-2 (No. 8) last year -- but expectations are a different animal.
Washington coach Kalen DeBoer is a turnaround artist. He flipped Indiana's offense to 34th in offensive SP+ when he arrived in Bloomington in 2019. He inherited a 4-8 Fresno State team from Jeff Tedford in 2020 and, after a 3-3 COVID season, went 10-3 in 2021. And he was responsible for the Huskies' immediate turnaround last year. But he's now dealing with the highest expectations he's seen since his Sioux Falls Cougars entered 2009 as defending NAIA national champions.
For what it's worth: Sioux Falls won another title in 2009. Expectations weren't much of an issue.
DeBoer's Huskies begin 2023 ranked 10th in the AP poll. They bring back Michael Penix Jr. (4,641 passing yards and 31 touchdowns in 2022) and one of the nation's best receiving corps -- Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze combined for 2,243 receiving yards, 14.6 per catch, and 16 scores last season. The defense has loads of experience, though on paper last year's D was Washington's worst since 2011. It's obvious what voters saw in placing UW in the top 10, and DeBoer almost never disappoints. Still, leading a potential CFP contender is obviously a new experience.
Saturday also brings an experience -- and opportunity -- Boise State hasn't had in a while. Since 2006, the Broncos are 12-7 against top-20 teams and 4-2 against the top 10, but their only two top-10 games since 2010 were a home-and-home against BYU in 2020 (a 51-17 loss) and 2021 (a 26-17 win). The last time they played a top-10 power-conference team was Virginia Tech 13 years ago.
Coach Andy Avalos has maintained BSU's status as a sturdy mid-major. Since a bumpy 3-4 start to his tenure in 2021, he's 14-5 -- and he's got an exciting backfield in quarterback Taylen Green and running back George Holani (though leading receiver Latrell Caples is out for the season with injury). But BSU has indeed been mid-major in recent years: They haven't finished ranked since 2019, and they've averaged just a 44.0 SP+ ranking over the last four years. They've lost four of their last five against power-conference opponents. As always, they begin the year as the betting favorite to win the Mountain West, but they have something to prove here. Defeating (or at least scaring) a top-10 team would be a good way to start out.
Current line: UW -14.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 13.8 | FPI projection: UW by 10.7
Finally, the Coach Prime experience begins
Colorado at No. 17 TCU (noon, Fox)
After one of the wildest offseasons imaginable, Colorado, led by Deion Sanders, will finally take the field. He flipped nearly the entire Buffaloes roster, inserted his son as the starting quarterback and even saw Colorado move back to the Big 12 (starting in 2024). Now he actually gets to coach a football game.
Sanders' Buffaloes cannot be projected this year. SP+ ranks them 88th, FPI 102nd -- both of those rankings would represent massive improvement after last year's dreadful 1-11 showing (no one, in fact, is projected to improve more), but it's still fair to assume they'll be quite a bit better than that. Depth still appears to be a major issue, especially in the trenches, but the talent upgrade is still significant. But how significant? Will they end up in the 70s? 50s? Something greater?
With a schedule featuring five ranked opponents -- three in September alone -- they'll have to be excellent to avoid a rocky start. They begin with last year's national runner-up, a TCU team that is dealing with pretty significant change itself. Sonny Dykes has had to replace offensive coordinator Garrett RIley, quarterback Max Duggan, his top two running backs, top three receivers, three starting offensive linemen, star cornerback Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and a lot of last year's defensive line rotation. His second year in Fort Worth is more like a second first year.
Still, Dykes made a number of high-profile offensive additions, from coordinator Kendal Briles to a number of former blue-chippers -- running back Trey Sanders (Alabama), receivers Dylan Wright (Minnesota), Warren Thompson (Arkansas) and Jojo Earle (Alabama) and tackle Tommy Brockermeyer (Alabama). The Horned Frogs' offense will look the part, though obviously they'll need quarterback Chandler Morris to live up to expectations. The sophomore famously beat out Max Duggan for the starting job last year before first getting hurt, then getting Wally Pipp'd as Duggan led TCU to the College Football Playoff and finished second in the Heisman voting. If Morris is indeed better than that, TCU's ceiling is super high. But I think Dykes would settle for Morris being merely very good.
Dykes didn't change nearly as much about Joe Gillespie's defense, which might or might not be a mistake after the Frogs finished just 43rd in defensive SP+. But while Colorado is the biggest mystery in college football this year, TCU's pretty mysterious itself. The Frogs are projected to manhandle the Buffs, but that might be pretty presumptuous.
Current line: TCU -20.5 | SP+ projection: TCU 26.1 | FPI projection: TCU by 23.4
My favorite bets
Each week I share five bets I like, and I'll be honest: This week is weirding me out. While SP+ did great in Week 0 -- it was three points away from going 7-0 against the spread -- it is diverging significantly from the sportsbooks in Week 1's projections. It's picking favorites 82% of the time and unders 82% of the time.
You know what? Let's lean into it. Here's an all-favorites set of best bets.
Central Michigan at Michigan State (-14) (Friday, 7 p.m., FS1). I'm not a fan of the Spartans' offensive potential this year, but their defense should be able to handle a CMU offense that might still be relying on one quarterback for rushing (Bert Emanuel Jr.) and one for passing (Jase Bauer). SP+ projects a 34-11 MSU win on average, and even something like 31-14 would be a cover.
Louisville (-7.5) at Georgia Tech (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN). This one depends on your view of two things: Georgia Tech's late-2022 improvement and Louisville's transfer haul. I definitely like the latter -- new Louisville coach Jeff Brohm brought in 13 FBS starters to pair with the 11 or so the Cardinals return -- but I'm not sure I trust a mere two-game Tech improvement. The Yellow Jackets upset North Carolina and lost to Georgia by merely 23, which was enough to earn then-interim head coach Brent Key the full-time job. But SP+ projects a 13- to 15-point Louisville advantage depending on whether you give Tech a full home-field advantage (the game's at Atlanta's Mercedes Benz Stadium), and that feels closer to correct than 7.5.
Bowling Green at Liberty (-9.5) (Saturday, 12 p.m., CBSSN). SP+ gives Liberty a 17.1-point advantage here; it didn't really like BGSU last year even while the Falcons eked out a 6-7 record and bowl appearance. They still finished just 122nd out of 131 last season, while Liberty, even while collapsing late as Hugh Freeze flirted with leaving, finished 96th. I'm betting new Flames coach Jamey Chadwell hits the ground running.
Northern Illinois at Boston College (-8.5) (Saturday, 12 p.m., ACCN). SP+ doesn't really like NIU either. BC is projected only 78th overall but is given a 13.0-point advantage, and with a new offensive identity and a speed upgrade with players like WR Ryan O'Keefe (UCF) and maybe quarterback Thomas Castellanos (UCF), I think the Eagles are candidates to overachieve their projections as well.
Louisiana Tech at SMU (-20) (Saturday, 12 p.m., ESPNU). Tech's 22-17 win over FIU in Week 0 was a bit confusing -- while the scoring margin was about right (SP+ projected Tech by 8.4), the Bulldogs' defense was more effective than expected (182 total yards for FIU), and their offense was far worse, averaging just 5.4 yards per play against an FIU defense that, well, shouldn't be very good. Either way, this is a bet on an SMU team that was close to something greater than 7-6 last year and added a big load of former blue-chippers and FBS starters from the transfer portal.
Week 1 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Louisville at Georgia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN). SP+ is bullish on the Cardinals, but either way there's a lot of "new" in this game, and we'll get a lot of questions answered about both teams.
Current line: Louisville -7.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 15.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 7.5
Early Saturday
Virginia vs. No. 12 Tennessee (noon, ABC). All right, Joe Milton III, how's this story going to play out? The most important player of the 2023 season starts his final season in Knoxville against a Cavaliers squad with disruptive potential on defense, and maybe very little potential on offense.
Current line: Vols -28 | SP+ projection: Vols by 28.5 | FPI projection: Vols by 19.2
Fresno State at Purdue (noon, BTN). New Purdue coach Ryan Walters will attempt to pair an aggressive man defense with Graham Harrell's version of an air raid attack, and that combo might result in a pretty volatile Boilermakers squad out of the gate. UCF transfer Mikey Keene takes over as Fresno State's quarterback, and the Bulldogs have more than enough to threaten Purdue if the Boilers are wobbly.
Current line: Purdue -3.5 | SP+ projection: Boilers by 4.4 | FPI projection: Boilers by 10.5
Saturday afternoon
No. 3 Ohio State at Indiana (3:30 p.m., CBS). Does Indiana have the firepower to keep up with the Buckeyes? Almost certainly not. But we'll still get our first glimpse at Ohio State's new quarterback duo -- Kyle McCord gets the start, but his battle with Devin Brown will continue into the season -- and Indiana might have just enough speed at receiver to test Jim Knowles' aggressive Buckeye defense.
Current line: Buckeyes -30 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 33.4 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 32.7
Buffalo at No. 19 Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., FS1). The idea of burly, run-heavy Wisconsin throwing the ball 35-40 times per game -- as new, tempo-friendly offensive coordinator Phil Longo is wont to do -- is still hard to fathom. But we'll see it starting on Saturday afternoon.
Current line: UW -28 | SP+ projection: UW by 29.7 | FPI projection: UW by 22.5
Cal at North Texas (4 p.m., ESPNU). Over the course of writing previews for every team, I end up talking myself into or out of a few teams, and Cal fell into the "into" category. I really like the transfers coach Justin Wilcox brought in -- the Golden Bears desperately needed an athleticism infusion and may have gotten it -- and I think they could exceed expectations. But that starts with handling a weird Week 1 road trip to Denton.
Current line: Cal -6.5 | SP projection: Cal by 8.1 | FPI projection: Cal by 11.2
Saturday evening
South Alabama at No. 24 Tulane (8 p.m., ESPNU). The biggest Saturday game in the mid-major universe. Tulane begins its quest for a second straight major bowl bid against a South Alabama team with loads of experience and Sun Belt title potential. Love this one.
Current line: Tulane -6.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 8.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 9.9
West Virginia at No. 7 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC). If Joe Milton III isn't the most important player in the country this year, PSU QB Drew Allar might be. His first start will come against a physical WVU team with a completely remodeled defense.
Current line: PSU -20.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 22.9 | FPI projection: PSU by 19.9
Middle Tennessee at No. 4 Alabama (7:30 p.m., SECN). I have more questions about Alabama entering a season than I have in quite some time. Middle Tennessee won't provide an upset threat, but it will at least help us get some answers.
Current line: Bama -39 | SP+ projection: Bama by 44.4 | FPI projection: Bama by 41.6
Texas Tech at Wyoming (7:30 p.m., CBS). Joey McGuire's Red Raiders have built some solid "Big 12 dark horse?" hype this offseason after last year's 8-5 campaign, but starting the year in Laramie, with a huge game against Oregon on deck, feels like a spectacular trap. Can Tech take care of business against Craig Bohl's anti-social Cowboys?
Current line: Tech -14.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 18.4 | FPI projection: Tech by 14.9
Late Saturday
Coastal Carolina at UCLA (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Last year, Chip Kelly's Bruins nearly lost to South Alabama in nonconference play. Now they take on another Sun Belt aspirant, one with one of the country's most proven quarterbacks (Grayson McCall) to boot. Meanwhile, Kelly's talking about playing three different quarterbacks -- last year's backup Ethan Garbers, Kent State transfer Collin Schlee and blue-chip freshman Dante Moore.
Current line: UCLA -14.5 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 16.1 | FPI projection: UCLA 17.7
Monday night
No. 9 Clemson at Duke (Monday, 8 p.m., ESPN). This is our first look at Clemson's new-look, Garrett Riley-led offense, and it's the first chance for Duke to prove that last year's thrilling surge -- after winning 10 combined games from 2019-21, the Blue Devils immediately won nine in Mike Elko's first season -- was sustainable. The numbers aren't buying it.
Current line: Clemson -13 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 15.0 | FPI projection: Clemson by 18.4
Smaller-school showcase
Every week of the season, we save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. The more you watch, the healthier you get. Here are three games you should track (though you don't have to stop at three!). Some of FCS' biggest brands have stout early tests.
FCS: No. 25 Florida A&M vs. Jackson State (3 p.m., ESPN). Deion Sanders is gone, but new JSU coach T.C. Taylor still has quite a talent advantage to work with, and his Tigers laid waste to South Carolina State last week on national television. Can linebacker Isaiah Major and a feisty FAMU defense keep things within reach?
SP+ projection: Jackson State 27.1, Florida A&M 13.7
FCS: Eastern Washington vs. No. 2 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). Both NDSU (by a little) and EWU (by a lot) fell short of their recent standards -- NDSU never really seemed to find its typical dominance while still reaching the FCS championship game (but losing to rival SDSU by 24), and EWU collapsed to 3-8 in Aaron Best's sixth year in charge. Both will try to restore former glory with a season-opener in the Minnesota Vikings' U.S. Bank Stadium.
SP+ projection: NDSU 42.5, Eastern Washington 15.6
D3: No. 4 Trinity (Texas) at No. 6 St. John's (1 p.m.). The Tigers and Johnnies are two of the best Division III programs not to have broken through to a title game in a while. Trinity's last finals appearance was a loss to Mount Union in 2002, while St. John's beat Mount Union in the 2003 title game. Neither is far away from contending in 2023.
SP+ projection: St. John's 25.4, Trinity 20.2