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2023 preseason college football bowl projections

The 2023 college football season kicks off Saturday with seven FBS games and shifts into high gear Aug. 31 with the start of the full Week 1 schedule. Although it seems like a long time between then and December, it's never too early to think about bowl season and the College Football Playoff.

Who will make the four-team playoff for the national championship? What about the other New Year's Six games and the rest of the bowl matchups?

ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach present their projections for all 43 games, and they'll have new predictions every week as the season rolls along. They'll also explain their CFP picks and offer other insights.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship presented by AT&T
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Michigan vs. USC

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: In some order, there's probably a consensus top four nationally -- Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Ohio State -- but the idea that two non-champions will qualify for the playoff seems like a bad bet. With that understood, Ohio State is out and replacements are considered. There's not a clear "next team up." It would be fitting, in a way, for the Pac-12 to qualify a team when its lack of playoff participation contributed to its death, but the parity there is still a massive hurdle. TCU showed that the Big 12 can get a team through, but that's a tough conference to navigate this year, too. Which leads us to the ACC and preseason No. 8 Florida State. The Seminoles get LSU in their opener, which will be either (A) a good résumé-building win or (B) an early-enough loss to overcome late. Then they have as easy a conference path as there is for any Power 5 contender.

Schlabach: Obviously, there wasn't much originality in my four playoff teams for the first bowl projections of the 2023 season. Three of them -- two-time defending national champion Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State -- made the CFP last season. The Bulldogs and Buckeyes both have to replace star quarterbacks, while the Trojans bring back reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. Unlike USC and Ohio State, Georgia and Michigan have been adept at stopping opponents the past two seasons. I have Georgia and USC winning the SEC and Pac-12, respectively, and I have Michigan beating Ohio State again but the Buckeyes sneaking in with an 11-1 record.


New Year's Six

Friday, Dec. 29

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: USC vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Texas vs. LSU

Saturday, Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: LSU vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Alabama

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Penn State

Monday, Jan. 1

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Utah vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Tulane


Team ready to crash the New Year's Six party

Bonagura: Washington didn't make the cut for my New Year's Six selections, but that doesn't mean the Huskies aren't ready. After winning 11 games last year, they're on the same tier as USC and Utah in the Pac-12, and there's a case to be made they could be playoff hunting.

Schlabach: I think there are a couple of good candidates to turn the corner and make a New Year's Six bowl game. Depending on how things shake out, Florida State, Texas and Washington could all get it done. Of the three, the Longhorns might have the easiest path in the Big 12. Coach Steve Sarkisian likes quarterback Quinn Ewers' development, and the Longhorns bring back all five starting offensive linemen and a talented receiver corps. Of course, they'll have to find a capable replacement for star tailback Bijan Robinson. The Longhorns' Sept. 9 road trip to No. 4 Alabama (7 p.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN App) will tell us a lot about their CFP chances.


Bowl season

Saturday, Dec. 16

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. North Carolina Central

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Troy

Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. North Texas

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Texas vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: New Mexico State vs. San Diego State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCLA vs. Boise State
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Boise State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Arizona

Monday, Dec. 18

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Ball State vs. Georgia Southern

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Air Force

Thursday, Dec. 21

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ball State vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. South Alabama

Friday, Dec. 22

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Duke vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Army vs. UAB

Saturday, Dec. 23

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Auburn vs. UAB
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Florida Atlantic

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTEP vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Northern Illinois

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Army vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Western Kentucky

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Wyoming

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Oregon

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: BYU vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Fresno State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Illinois vs. UCF

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisville vs. SMU
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Memphis

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Miami vs. Kentucky

Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: Miami vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Oregon State

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. South Carolina


School/coach that most needs to make a bowl

Bonagura: Syracuse needed a bowl game last year to quiet talk about coach Dino Babers' future, but it's not as if a 7-6 season, capped by a loss in the Pinstripe Bowl, stabilized the long-term future. If Syracuse regresses this year and misses a bowl, what's the logical argument that Babers, who has led the Orange to just two bowls in seven years, could figure it out next season ... in Year 9?

Schlabach: It has to be Texas A&M and coach Jimbo Fisher, right? The Aggies spent a boatload of money to lure him away from Florida State, and all they've got to show for it is a five-year stretch in which they've lost at least four games in four seasons. Fisher brought in former Arkansas and Louisville coach Bobby Petrino to take over the offense. Quarterback Conner Weigman seems ready to take the next step, and Texas A&M's highly regarded recruits have to start producing at some point.


Thursday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boston College vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: NC State vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Maryland

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Kansas State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: TCU vs. Washington
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Utah

Friday, Dec. 29

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Florida
Schlabach: NC State vs. Arkansas

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Pitt vs. Cal
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Washington State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCF vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: TCU vs. Mississippi State

Saturday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Ole Miss

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. San Jose State

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Tennessee

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M