Every new college football season is its own unique journey with its own personality. As we head into 2023, we have plenty of intriguing storylines to follow: another incredible Michigan-Ohio State race in the Big Ten, the amazing set of quarterbacks in the Pac-12, the close game festival that is the Big 12 title race, the tantalizing potential of Joe Milton III, potentially dynamite races in the AAC and Sun Belt and so on. We'll fall in love with out-of-nowhere stars, we'll watch the hot seat claim countless coaches and odds are, we'll enjoy ourselves immensely.
The biggest storyline in any given season, however, is the national title race. That might not begin in earnest until, or unless, the Georgia Bulldogs lose.
Kirby Smart's two-time defending national champions begin this season No. 1 in the preseason polls and SP+. With an easier than usual schedule, the Bulldogs don't have many major hurdles to clear and boast the clearest College Football Playoff path. They recruit as well as almost anyone -- so well that Smart has barely felt the need to dip into the transfer portal in recent years -- and, again: They're the two-time defending champs. They've won 17 games in a row and 33 of their past 34, and they avenged their lone loss -- to Alabama in the 2021 SEC championship -- barely a month later in the CFP title game. UGA is college football's sure thing and enters 2023 as the obvious title favorite.
One problem, though: College football teams don't win three national titles in a row. Since the Minnesota Golden Gophers pulled it off from 1934 to 1936, at the very start of the poll era, no one in nearly nine decades has three-peated -- not Nick Saban's or Bear Bryant's Alabama Crimson Tide, not Pete Carroll's USC Trojans, not Barry Switzer's Oklahoma Sooners, not any of the 13 teams that have tried.
That doesn't mean it's impossible, obviously. But as Georgia embarks on something historical, it's worth looking back at why the last 13 failed. Most remained excellent, so what tripped them up? What were the common themes?
Not including 1942 Minnesota, whose run was interrupted by World War II, the 12 other failed three-peats loosely fall into three categories: the unlucky, the slightly diminished and, in one case, the absolute collapse.
Bad breaks and happenstance
These six teams continued to play at a title level but, in one way or another, didn't quite get the breaks they needed. The first three teams on the list simply got snubbed by pollsters, something that can't happen nearly as easily in the playoff era.
(Note: For each team on this list, I'll look at not only their records but also their historic SP+ ratings. That gives additional context regarding how good these teams were during, and immediately after, their respective title runs.)
1946 Army Black Knights
1944: 9-0, first in SP+ (99.0% percentile)
1945: 9-0, first (99.8%)
1946: 9-0-1, third (99.0%)
The 1945 Cadets might have been college football's greatest, most dominant team. Led by Doc Blanchard ("Mr. Inside") and Glenn Davis ("Mr. Outside"), who won Heismans in consecutive years, coupled with the perfect convergence of stars from throughout the country thanks to World War II, Army was beyond dominant. In 1944-45, it outscored 18 opponents by an average score of 51-5 and saved some of its best performances for its best opponents -- a 59-0 win over No. 5 Notre Dame in 1944 and wins of 48-0 over No. 2 Notre Dame and 61-0 over No. 6 Penn in 1945.
With Blanchard, Davis and company back in 1946, Army was well-positioned to make another run. But it's ridiculously hard to maintain such a world-class edge. The Black Knights won their first seven games, but by diminishing margins -- 20-13 over No. 4 Michigan, 21-7 over unranked Oklahoma. And Nov. 9, No. 2 Notre Dame fought them to a famous, scoreless draw at Yankee Stadium. The Cadets remained No. 1 in the AP poll, but following their narrow win over 1-8 Navy and Notre Dame's 26-6 win over No. 16 USC, the Irish jumped them in the final polls. This clearly wasn't as good an Army team, but they still didn't lose their title so much as voters just went with another team.
1948 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
1946: 8-0-1, second in SP+ (99.2%)
1947: 9-0, third (99.0%)
1948: 9-0-1, second (98.5%)
Notre Dame's 1946 title ended one run and began another. Frank Leahy's post-war Fighting Irish rosters were among the deepest the game has ever seen -- future pros littered the third string -- and Notre Dame romped almost untested to the 1947 title despite the unbeaten Michigan Wolverines earning plenty of plaudits.
The 1948 Irish team was almost indistinguishable from 1947's in terms of either talent or quality. Notre Dame played five road games in a six-week span and won every game by at least 15 points. But things got just bumpy enough down the stretch to force a changing of the guard. The Irish barely got past No. 8 Northwestern 12-7 on Nov. 13, and after falling to second in the polls behind a dominant and unbeaten Michigan, Notre Dame could only manage a 14-14 tie against USC in its last chance to make an impression. For the second straight year, voters were tasked with choosing between Notre Dame and Michigan; this time they went with Bennie Oosterbaan's Wolverines.
1966 Alabama Crimson Tide
1964: 10-1, first in SP+ (99.4%)
1965: 9-1-1, first (98.7%)
1966: 11-0, second (99.3%)
It's been almost 60 years, and Alabama fans of a certain age still haven't completely gotten over this one. After winning the title despite blemishes in both 1964 and 1965, Alabama ran the table in 1966 but finished third in the AP poll behind Notre Dame and Michigan State, which had recently tied each other in the Game of the Century and finished with matching 9-0-1 records.
There are plenty of theories behind how this unfolded. Maybe voters were just tired of voting for Bama. Maybe they were sending a message about Bama's nonintegrated roster. Obviously none of this would have been an issue in the playoff era -- we'd have gotten a spectacular MSU-Bama semifinal that year, with the Irish likely waiting in the title game after facing No. 4 Georgia. But if nothing else, this turn of events is a reminder of how you both have to be awesome and perhaps a little lucky to win the national title. Bama was both in 1964, when it had already been awarded the title before losing to Texas in the Orange Bowl, and 1965, when it somehow finished No. 1 despite losing to 6-4 Georgia and tying Tennessee. In 1966, there were three nearly perfect teams, and Bama didn't get the votes.
1972 Nebraska Cornhuskers
1970: 11-0-1, third in SP+ (98.1%)
1971: 13-0, first (99.96%)
1972: 9-2-1, third (99.8%)
After slipping to back-to-back 6-4 seasons in 1967 and 1968, Bob Devaney's Cornhuskers both refreshed their tactics and unleashed the first truly developed strength and conditioning program on an unsuspecting universe. They went 11-0-1 in 1970 to take the AP national title, then fielded a greatest-of-all-time candidate during a 13-0 romp through 1971. They barely played in any close games in those years but went 3-0-1 in one-score finishes.
In 1972, the components were still in place. Nebraska ranked second in scoring offense and third in scoring defense, winning eight games by at least 30 points. But it played in three tight games and came away with a tie (23-23 at No. 17 Iowa State) and two losses (20-17 at UCLA and 17-14 at No. 4 Oklahoma). The Cornhuskers were six points from another unbeaten season but couldn't quite get it done. Even in a playoff era, they'd have been on the outside looking in.
1996 Nebraska Cornhuskers
1994: 13-0, second in SP+ (97.8%)
1995: 12-0, first (99.7%)
1996: 11-2, first (98.5%)
After fielding another all-time great team in 1995 and losing a host of incredible stars -- quarterback Tommie Frazier, first-round running back Lawrence Phillips and five other draftees -- Nebraska did slip a hair in 1996. But SP+ suggests that, despite an early season loss to Jake Plummer and maybe the best Arizona State Sun Devils team ever, the Huskers still might have been the best team in the country. With a win over the Texas Longhorns in the inaugural Big 12 championship, they would have ranked third in the polls and earned a spot in the Sugar Bowl against the top-ranked Florida State Seminoles. With unbeaten No. 2 Arizona State eventually losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl, Nebraska would have been one win away from a three-peat.
Unfortunately, Texas QB James Brown and tight end Derek Lewis had other ideas. With Texas milking a 30-27 lead and facing fourth-and-inches from its 28 in the closing minutes, the duo connected on a shocking 61-yard pass that iced the win with a late touchdown. It took one of the most famous fourth downs ever to interrupt Nebraska's title run -- the Huskers had to settle for three titles in four years, rolling to an unbeaten season in 1997.
2005 USC Trojans
2003: 12-1, third in SP+ (96.1%)
2004: 13-0, first (99.3%)
2005: 12-1, second (98.5%)
Pete Carroll's mid-2000s Trojans were a perfect concoction of depth, star power and incredible entertainment value. USC players won the Heisman in 2002 (Carson Palmer), 2004 (Matt Leinart) and 2005 (Reggie Bush*), and the Trojans split the 2003 national title with LSU, then won it outright in 2004 with an Orange Bowl blowout of Oklahoma.
The 2005 team was still awesome, and if not for the emergence of a nearly perfect Texas team, the Trojans might have won a third straight. But the 2005 team was a more one-dimensional squad, scoring 142 more points than in 2004 but allowing 128 more, too. A 50-42 track meet against the Fresno State Bulldogs was a warning sign, and USC allowed 41 points to Vince Young and Texas in maybe the greatest Rose Bowl ever. Against the 2004 or 2006 field, USC probably would have scored another ring, but the Longhorns stood in the way in 2005.
* Yes, I'm ignoring the vacated Heisman. Return Reggie's trophy.
2013 Alabama Crimson Tide
2011: 12-1, first in SP+ (98.9%)
2012: 13-1, first (99.5%)
2013: 11-2, second (97.5%)
Not even Nick Saban has three-peated. All it took to prevent it in 2013 was maybe the greatest play in college football history.
Like Bryant's 1964-65 Bama squads, Saban's Crimson Tide got the breaks they needed in 2011-12. In both seasons, they suffered memorable conference losses -- 9-6 to LSU in 2011, 29-24 to Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M in 2012 -- but reached the BCS championship all the same because of other late-season thrillers elsewhere (Iowa State upsetting Oklahoma State in 2011, Stanford upsetting Chip Kelly's best Oregon team in 2012).
The 2013 Tide didn't quite meet the standards of their recent champs, primarily because of slight slippage on defense. (The offense, led by Heisman finalist AJ McCarron, was likely Saban's best to date.) Still, after a 49-42 track meet win over Manziel and the Aggies in September, Bama won its last nine games by an average score of 39-6 before a famous Iron Bowl trip to Auburn on Nov. 30. It attempted a potential winning field goal with one second left, and another BCS championship game in sight, but ... well ... you probably remember the rest.
9 years ago, the words "Kick Six" were engraved into the history of the Iron Bowl 🙌 pic.twitter.com/tous5VH000
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 30, 2022
The standard just slipped a little
The teams in this category are awfully similar to the ones above. Most remained some degree of awesome. But they missed out on a three-peat less because they were unfortunate and more because they couldn't quite clear the bar they had set in previous seasons.
1957 Oklahoma Sooners
1955: 11-0, first in SP+ (98.6%)
1956: 10-0, first (99.8%)
1957: 10-1, third (97.9%)
You could say that Oklahoma should have three-peated from 1954 to 1956. Bud Wilkinson's Sooners went 10-0 in 1954, scoring wins No. 10-19 of their famous 47-game streak, but they finished third in the AP poll behind fellow unbeatens Ohio State and Maryland. OU earned proper respect (with a less cluttered field of contenders) in 1955-56, and it was primed to keep the winning streak going to 50 or longer.
OU narrowly sneaked past unranked Colorado (14-13) and Kansas State (13-0), but eventually everyone loses. Notre Dame ended the streak with a 7-0 upset in Norman. There was nothing fundamentally wrong here, and the defense was as good as ever, but the offense slipped enough to make the Sooners mortal. After fielding another high-level team in 1958, they slipped further, going just 31-19-1 in Wilkinson's last five seasons in charge.
1971 Texas Longhorns
1969: 11-0, third in SP+ (97.1%)
1970: 10-1, second (98.4%)
1971: 8-3, 17th (91.6%)
In 1968, new Texas offensive coordinator Emory Bellard, tasked by Darrell K Royal with modernizing a stale Longhorns attack, instead revolutionized all of college football with the Wishbone offense. The quick-hitting, option-heavy formation would eventually be adopted by other powerhouses like Oklahoma and Alabama. But in 1969, it belonged to Texas.
After losing four games for three straight years, Texas finished 1968 on a nine-game winning streak and eventually extended the run to 30 before a Cotton Bowl loss to Notre Dame at the end of 1970. (It still took the UPI national title.)
In 1971, the world caught up. Texas was still good enough to go 6-1 in Southwest Conference play but suffered blowout losses to Arkansas, Penn State and an Oklahoma team that had taken the Wishbone to a completely different level. The Horns bounced between good and great for another 10 years but never quite reached the same heights.
1976 Oklahoma Sooners
1974: 11-0, first in SP+ (99.8%)
1975: 11-1, third (99.0%)
1976: 9-2-1, third (98.6%)
Oklahoma's Barry Switzer learned the Texas wishbone and proceeded to rule the Plains with it. The Sooners rolled to nine top-five finishes in a 10-year span, nearly winning the 1973 title at 10-0-1 despite an NCAA postseason ban, then rolling to the 1974 title at 11-0. They got the breaks they needed -- No. 1 Ohio State lost to UCLA in the Rose Bowl, and No. 2 Texas A&M lost to USC in the Liberty Bowl -- to win another title in 1975 despite a shocking 23-3 loss to Kansas in early November.
That evidently used up their good-break quota. They would come up just short of another couple of titles in the late 1970s, but in 1976 they just weren't as good as the previous two seasons. The Sooners slipped to 40th in scoring defense, and a midseason funk saw them suffer a tie against Texas and a couple of uncharacteristic losses at home to unranked Oklahoma State and on the road against No. 19 Colorado. They rebounded from there, but it was enough of a wobble to knock them out of the race for both the national and Big 8 titles.
1980 Alabama Crimson Tide
1978: 11-1, fourth in SP+ (97.7%)
1979: 12-0, first (99.7%)
1980: 10-2, fourth (98.6%)
Bear Bryant's last great run scored a pair of national titles and came awfully close to more. His Crimson Tide went 11-1 in 1977 with only a loss at Nebraska, but 11-1 Notre Dame edged them in both the AP poll (1180 points for the Irish, 1132 for the Tide) and coaches poll (365-354). They got the breaks to win the title at 11-1 the next year, then romped to 12-0 with only a couple of close calls in 1979.
From a computer ratings standpoint, they slipped a little bit in 1980 but would have gotten away with it had the offense not disappeared at the wrong times -- they lost 6-3 at Mississippi State and 7-0 at home to Notre Dame, both in November, and settled for 10-2 and a No. 6 AP finish. They would slip a bit further in each of Bryant's last two seasons in charge.
Things completely fell apart
1967 Michigan State Spartans
1965: 10-1, second in SP+ (98.7%)
1966: 9-0-1, third (98.9%)
1967: 3-7, 30th (77.2%)
Thanks to the coaches poll (1965) and National Football Foundation rankings (1966), Michigan State claimed back-to-back titles in a cluttered period -- Bama also claimed one in 1965, Notre Dame in 1966. Regardless of whether or not you find that official, one thing is certain: The Spartans most assuredly did not three-peat in 1967.
The Spartans were clearly still very talented and competitive, as evidenced by a 21-17 loss to No. 2 USC, a 14-13 loss to No. 6 Indiana and a 34-0 blowout of Michigan in Ann Arbor. But they could never find breathing room against a strong schedule, and it was the end of dominance for Duffy Daugherty and the Spartans. After seven top-10 finishes between 1955 and 1966, the Spartans went just 27-34-1 over Daugherty's final six seasons in charge.
Something tells me this example won't apply to Kirby Smart and Georgia.
What's different about Georgia's run?
The more you learn about your history, the more you realize how often it repeats itself. Typically, nothing in today's world is as new or unique as we always think, and it's no different for college football.
That said, a lot has changed in this sport. While history teaches us that glitches can still happen -- that brief moments of inattention or the slightest of slippage can knock you off a title track -- some of the examples above are more applicable than others. Had a four-team CFP existed during the 12 seasons above, for example, six of the aspiring three-peaters would have made it into the field (1946 Army, 1948 Notre Dame, 1957 Oklahoma, 1966 Alabama, 2005 USC, 2013 Alabama). Even if we assign simple 1-in-4 odds for each of those teams, one or two of them probably win the title in these circumstances.
(Of course, with a CFP, there's also nothing saying all of these repeat champions would have been repeat champions.)
Read more: The SEC is loaded again
Georgia has plenty going for it as it attempts to pull a Minnesota. There's no indication that talent levels have slipped. And while there are plenty of good teams on the 2023 schedule, there aren't many great ones. Only one of UGA's 2023 opponents is projected better than 18th in SP+, which favors the Dawgs by under 13 points just once all year (at Tennessee in November). Plus, history suggests that, even if they fall to the Vols and finish 11-1, the CFP committee will likely look fondly on an 11-1 SEC team. They might have to suffer two hiccups to miss out.
If they fall short, it will likely be similar to 1975 Oklahoma, with a brief funk, or 1972 Nebraska, with disappearing close-games magic. While Georgia has rarely been tested in close-game circumstances, the Bulldogs have also been a little bit too successful in those games: They've won eight straight one-score finishes going back to 2019's 20-17 loss to South Carolina. They survived an upset bid from Missouri last year with a late surge, and they got past Ohio State in the CFP semifinals thanks to a late missed field goal from the Buckeyes. With a better kick, they're not even back-to-back champs.
History tells us that teams don't three-peat. It's too hard to maintain your attention span for that long, and you don't perpetually get just the right breaks at just the right moments. We'll soon find out if Smart's incredible Georgia warship is history-proof.