Nobody likes preseason rankings. Before a single snap is taken, we've already ranked the teams, one through 25, as if it's possible to definitively suggest a single spot differentiates, say, Michigan from Georgia.
But the problem isn't just our lack of information. Making outrageous claims based on minimal data is part of college football's DNA. Indeed, it's been the only fun part of being a Miami fan for the past 20 years.
No, the real problem is the notion of an integral ranking system that stops at 25.
We can't say with any sense of certainty that Alabama is a better College Football Playoff contender this season than LSU, but we can safely assume both should be playoff contenders. We can't know that Northwestern and Rutgers will battle for the bottom of the Big Ten, but we can be relatively certain they'll both be bad.
But there is a better way. Tiers, like Dippin' Dots, are the wave of the future. So, behold: the definitive groupings of college football teams entering the 2023 season.
Jump to a section:
Contenders with experience
High-scoring teams
Trending teams | Flirting with .500
Better than everyone thinks
Welcoming two newcomers
Tier 1: Yes, them again (one team)
You know those old clown car skits, where a VW Beetle that barely seats four shows up and like 60 clowns hop out? That is essentially what talent production at Georgia looks like these days. Over the past three years, Georgia has had 34 players selected in the NFL draft (approximately 32 of which were drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles), including 13 in the first or second round, and yet the stars keep piling out of the car, one after another, to the point that the rest of college football has to be asking, "How are there still more of these guys?"
So, here we are, fresh off back-to-back national titles for the Bulldogs, and the depth chart still includes Kendall Milton and Mykel Williams and Nazir Stackhouse and Javon Bullard and Malaki Starks and Tate Ratledge and Brock Bowers (No. 2 in ESPN's top 100 players list). Seriously, how is Bowers only a junior? It's really not fair.
The biggest looming question as Georgia looks for a third straight national championship is whether a 6-foot-4 former four-star prospect (Carson Beck) can possibly replace a 5-foot-11 onetime walk-on at quarterback (Stetson Bennett).
Like happy hour at Pauley's in Athens, there's no sign the fun will end any time soon.
Tier 2a: Contenders with recent playoff experience (four teams)
Alabama
Clemson
Michigan
Ohio State
Ohio State has not beaten Michigan since Nov. 30, 2019. Think of all that's happened since then: a global pandemic that nearly canceled a season, massive conference realignment, 227 Iowa punts.
It's a new era in the Big Ten, but for all the significance that "The Game" still holds within the league, it didn't matter much for playoff purposes last year, as both Michigan and Ohio State made it.
On the other hand, even two teams in the playoff didn't change the league's larger postseason fate. Since the Buckeyes won it all in 2014, the Big Ten is 1-7 in the playoff, with four of those losses coming by two touchdowns or more.
Michigan and Ohio State are both oozing with talent, and in a year that feels more wide open than most, the pressure is on for the elite of the Big Ten not just to make it to the playoff but to win it all.
At Clemson, Dabo Swinney had been in full "Godfather" mode when assembling a coaching staff for the past decade -- "Never go against the family" -- but after a second straight season missing the playoff, he gave Brandon Streeter the Fredo treatment and hired Garrett Riley away from TCU to take over the offensive playcalling. Going outside the Clemson family worked wonders when Swinney brought in Chad Morris and Brent Venables early in his tenure, and Tigers fans are convinced Riley's arrival will be equally impactful. Add in a fresh start for sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik and one of the best backfields in the country, and just when you thought Clemson was out (of the top spot in the ACC), it pulls you back in.
In the past two seasons, Alabama has 11 games in which it either lost outright or won by a TD or less.
In the five seasons before that, it also had 11 total.
The point of this isn't to say Alabama isn't still elite. The Crimson Tide lost two games last year by a combined four points. But Alabama used to win games getting off the bus. It annihilated the opposition with such exhausting dominance that only a small handful of teams even hoped to win. Most just wanted to survive.
Now, Alabama is just ... good. The Tide still recruit well (Nick Saban signed the No. 1 class in 2023), still put guys into the draft (10 selections this year) and still win plenty (only Georgia and Michigan have more wins over the past two years). But they enter 2023 without a clear-cut starter at QB, with a receiving corps that seems awfully thin and with a defense that doesn't exactly strike fear into other teams as it did for so long.
So, it's the end of an era, right?
Well ...
This is how Nick Saban left his press conference after the 1st day of practice concluded
— Nick Perkins (@NPerkins96) August 3, 2023
I'm not reading too heavily into it, but if Nick Saban is happy, we all should be too pic.twitter.com/OByPRGqWrw
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Tier 2b: Contenders with less recent playoff experience (four teams)
Florida State
LSU
Oregon
Washington
It's been just four years since LSU won it all with, arguably, one of the best teams in recent college football history, but the end came fast. Joe Burrow left. Bo Pelini passed along the curse of Nebraska like something out of "The Ring," and Ed Orgeron was shown the door just two years later. Now, Cajun Country turns its lonely eyes to Brian Kelly to return the Tigers to glory. With Jayden Daniels, Harold Perkins Jr. and Maason Smith, it just might happen.
There was a time, believe it or not, when the Pac-12 sent teams to the College Football Playoff. After Oregon made it in 2014 and Washington in 2016, however, the conference was never heard from again. Some say it never existed, just an urban legend the Big Ten tells to scare Rutgers and Indiana into trying harder at football. But the truth is, the league has a real shot to get a team -- maybe two! -- into the playoff again in what might well be its final year of existence before fading away to join the Southwest Conference and the WAC at the great Tangerine Bowl in the sky.
Florida State lost to Oregon in the 2014 CFP, snapping a 29-game win streak, and the next eight years were a steady march to the bottom. But at long last, FSU is back, poised for a real run at the playoff. But how much more entertaining would this season be if ACC commissioner Jim Phillips announced that if Florida State won the ACC, it would be released from the league's grant of rights, but that if the Seminoles didn't win the conference, they had to stay in the ACC until 2036? Those are some real stakes.
Tier 2c: Contenders with no playoff experience (five teams)
Penn State
Tennessee
Texas
USC
Utah
The first seven years of the playoff were dominated by four teams: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma. The past two years, however, have included three first-timers in Michigan, Cincinnati and TCU.
Will the trend continue in 2023? There are plenty of possibilities -- from a deep Penn State team to a high-scoring USC to arguably the best Texas team in more than a decade.
Hey, stop laughing. This time Texas is actually back. Really. Probably. Maybe. It's going to lose to Kansas in Week 5, isn't it?
At 78-35, Utah has the second-best record of any Power 5 program in the playoff era that has not actually made the playoff. The Utes are 19-6 with Cam Rising as the starting QB, with four of those losses coming by a field goal or less. Utah is basically a golfer who keeps rimming out putts, but eventually one has to drop. The odds of that happening are a lot better if Rising is fully healthy for the opener against Florida, however.
Like Texas, USC is hoping to bid adieu to its longtime conference home by winning a title in its final year. To do so, Lincoln Riley will need to prove the defense has taken a big step forward in 2023.
Over the past decade, three QBs -- Christian Hackenberg, Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford -- have started 104 of Penn State's 106 games. That's a remarkable run of consistency at the position. In 2023, however, the Nittany Lions turn the offense over to a new signal-caller, Drew Allar, and he inherits a team loaded with talent. Clifford had become something of a divisive figure in Happy Valley over the years, largely based around a game that was routinely solid but rarely exceptional. Clifford was 32-14 as Penn State's starter but just 2-6 versus Ohio State and Michigan. Allar's challenge is to match Clifford's consistency against the rest of the Big Ten but also to play like a genuine star in the biggest games on the Lions' schedule. If he can, this has all the makings of a playoff team.
Caleb Williams won the Heisman last year, USC went from four wins to 11 and the Trojans' offense averaged nearly 13 points more per game than it had in 2021. So yeah, the Lincoln Riley hire was a massive success. On the other hand, the defense was a mess, allowing 35 points or more in six of its last eight games. The Trojans have the star power for a playoff run, but there remains a big question about whether they have the brute strength to get past Utah and others in the Pac-12.
Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III has started just nine games in his career, but he has basically become college football's version of the old Bill Brasky sketches on "Saturday Night Live." Milton's arm is so strong, he could turn around, throw a pass backward, have it circumnavigate the globe and land in a receiver's hands in the end zone for a 24,900-mile touchdown. Milton throws so hard, he could puncture the hull of a tanker ship on a screen pass. Milton once arm-wrestled a grizzly bear while tossing practice balls with his left hand to the scout team after practice. To Joe Milton!
Tier 2d: Contender who insists on remaining in an independent tier (one team)
Sam Hartman had to have a rib removed to address a blood-clotting issue last August. He then kept that rib in his refrigerator for the next few months, transferred from Wake Forest to Notre Dame after rewriting the ACC record books for career passing (including 89 touchdowns over the past two seasons) and had the rib made into a necklace.
Is anyone really going to bet against a guy who made a necklace out of his own rib? Especially one who threw for 3,700 yards last year?
Not since Miami's turnover chain has an accessory meant so much to the College Football Playoff race.
Tier 3a: Teams that should score a bunch of points (four teams)
Arkansas
North Carolina
Ole Miss
TCU
When KJ Jefferson was on the field last year, Arkansas averaged 8.8 yards per pass and 5.3 yards per rush. Only four other Power 5 teams -- Ohio State, Georgia, Florida State and Kansas -- managed full seasons hitting both those marks. Four of Arkansas' six losses last season came by three points or less, while its defense was among the worst second-half performers in the country. And if it's not as good as it was last year, it'll be easy enough to blame new offensive coordinator Dan Enos for ruining a good thing.
In 2022, North Carolina's defense ranked 120th in opponent completion percentage, 111th in non-blitz pressure rate, 111th in runs stopped for a loss or no gain and 109th in three-and-out rate. The Tar Heels still played for an ACC championship. Drake Maye, ladies and gentlemen, he's good -- and he might well end up as the top overall pick in next year's draft.
Last season, Ole Miss racked up 703 yards versus Arkansas but scored just 27 points. The Rebels had 558 against Texas Tech and scored just 25 points. Their 403 yards against Alabama was the second-most surrendered by the Tide last season, and the Rebels still lost. On the plus side, Ole Miss now has three touted QBs -- Jaxson Dart, Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard.
TCU quarterback Chandler Morris has played significant snaps in just four games over the past three years. In one of those games (versus Baylor in 2021), he threw for 461 yards and two touchdowns. In the other three combined, he threw for 347 and no touchdowns. The Horned Frogs should still put up some points, but without Garrett Riley, Max Duggan and Quentin Johnston, getting back to the playoff seems like an awfully big task.
Tier 3b: Teams that should prevent a lot of points from being scored (six teams)
Illinois
Iowa
Kentucky
Minnesota
NC State
Pitt
Illinois led the nation in fewest points allowed per drive last season. Iowa finished second. Kentucky, Minnesota and NC State were among the top 15 too.
Those five plus Pitt all ranked among the 20 best defenses at securing three and outs.
All but Kentucky ranked in the top 15 nationally in defensive success rate. All five ranked among the top 25 in defensive expected points added.
Pitt's 48 sacks were second most nationally. Illinois' 24 interceptions led the country. Iowa allowed the fewest yards per rush of any Power 5 defense. Kentucky allowed more than 24 points in a game just once, including holding eventual national champion Georgia to just 16.
In other words, there are six potentially elite defenses here.
The offenses, on the other hand?
Illinois won a game 9-6. It came against Iowa.
Iowa won a game 7-3. It came against an FCS opponent.
Kentucky topped 24 points just once after Oct. 1.
NC State trailed FSU 17-10 when the Wolfpack's starting QB got hurt. It didn't complete a pass for positive yardage and still won 19-17.
Minnesota won every game in which it scored 20 points. The Gophers still lost four games.
All six of these squads hope to have better offensive production in 2023 -- at least 25 points per game, in Iowa O-coordinator Brian Ferentz's case -- but the defenses are the foundation on which their success is likely to be built.
Tier 3c: Teams that could be good on offense or defense or both or neither (one team)
What do we make of the Wildcats? They won the Big 12 last year, knocking off a team that played (sort of) for a national championship in the title game. They have an emerging star in QB Will Howard, who threw for 15 TDs and just four picks after taking over for Adrian Martinez last season. They scored 37 points or more six times and beat Missouri, Oklahoma State and Baylor by a combined score of 119-15.
On the other hand, they outscored their other 10 FBS opponents by just nine total points, allowed 30 points or more five times and lost their best offensive weapon (Deuce Vaughn) and a hefty chunk of last year's defensive production.
For now, they're Schrödinger's (wild)cat: both a contender and an afterthought, until we can observe the truth.
Tier 4: Forget everything you saw last season (five teams)
Auburn
Florida
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Wisconsin
Combined record of these five college football blue bloods versus FBS opponents last season: 25-34. And yet, optimism abounds entering 2023.
Wisconsin hired Luke Fickell to rejuvenate the program, and in turn, he brought in Phil Longo as offensive coordinator, hoping to take the Air Raid into the final frontier -- the Big Ten. A genuine passing attack in the Big Ten will be something akin to the Beatles on Ed Sullivan, with Wisconsin fans shrieking in an unhinged state of euphoria and Iowa fans covering their children's eyes to shield them from such gratuitous acts of offense.
Hugh Freeze was given the keys to the Auburn program (though possibly not the password to his Twitter account), and with Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne at QB, there's hope the Tigers' offense might actually be respectable enough to contend in the SEC West.
Billy Napier couldn't win seven games with Anthony Richardson at QB, but surely Graham Mertz will fix things at Florida.
Brent Venables is one of the sharpest defensive minds in college football history, but Oklahoma allowed 30 points per game last season. That will either get fixed in 2023 or Venables will retreat to his bedroom like Brian Wilson, spending the next 20 years tinkering with coverage schemes, covering his walls with diagrams of exotic blitz packages and searching in vain for an answer that cannot be found.
We'll miss the image of a frazzled Jimbo Fisher, eyeglasses dangling from the edge of his nose, shuffling through play sheets that dwarf much of Tolstoy's catalogue. But it'll be worth it if either Texas A&M wins the SEC West behind sophomore QB Conner Weigman or new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino seizes control of the team after trapping Fisher in a large pit by covering it with a bunch of grass and twigs after seeing it work in a Bugs Bunny cartoon.
Tier 5: So hot right now (five teams)
Louisville
Oregon State
South Carolina
Texas Tech
Tulane
A year ago, Tulane beat the Big 12 champs, won the American Athletic Conference and toppled USC in a New Year's Six bowl to finish No. 9 in the country. It'd be hard to top that in 2023, but the schedule -- home games against South Alabama, Ole Miss and UTSA -- sets up nicely for another good run, one that, if all else breaks right, could put the Green Wave into 2021 Cincinnati territory.
Louisville got the coach its fans spent five years pining after, and now the Cardinals are the ACC's version of ChatGPT -- the thing everyone is certain will be great even if no one quite understands how just yet.
Oregon State is the sentimental favorite to win the Pac-12 after a 10-3 season in 2022 that ultimately resulted in the Beavers and Washington State reenacting that GIF from the final scene of "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air," with Will standing alone in a vacant living room. The only problem with the sentimental favorite is that Oregon State hasn't finished consecutive seasons ranked since 2007 and 2008 and has never won 10 games in back-to-back seasons.
Last year's 8-5 campaign for Texas Tech was clearly just a hint of a new Big 12 monster emerging (just as long as the Red Raiders' luck doesn't shift after going 4-0 in games decided by four or fewer points).
If you don't count the Tennessee game, Spencer Rattler threw as many touchdowns as interceptions last year (12) for South Carolina. If you do count the six scoring tosses Rattler had in Tennessee game, however, he's about to win the Heisman. It feels like we've been here before with Rattler, though.
Tier 6: Something good to watch before basketball season (six teams)
Duke
Kansas
Maryland
Syracuse
UCLA
Wake Forest
Trivia question: When was the last time Duke, Maryland and Wake Forest all won eight games in a season?
It's a trick question. It had never happened before 2022, when Duke won nine and the other two each won eight.
How about the last time those three plus Syracuse, UCLA and Kansas all played in a bowl game?
Another trick question. Last year was the first time it happened.
How about the last time all six of these schools had quarterbacks who had at least 10 more touchdown passes than interceptions?
Honestly, we're not even looking that one up. Just assume 2022 was as good a group of QBs this group of schools has ever trotted out in the same season.
Last year was a boon for schools chock-full of hoops history but devoid of big-time football success. At the midpoint of 2022, these six schools were a combined 30-6. The second half was a bit tougher sledding (17-25 overall), but it was nevertheless a banner year for the basketball schools on the gridiron.
Meanwhile, Alabama had a 1-seed in the men's basketball tournament, and Kansas got bounced in the round of 32. Last year really was like one of those "Freaky Friday"-like movies, in which Lance Leipold made a wish on a mysterious lantern discovered at a Lawrence-area garage sale and the whole personality of major college programs were flipped.
Tier 7: Kinda, sorta, maybe (five teams)
Baylor
Cincinnati
Miami
Mississippi State
Oklahoma State
It'd be easy enough to shrug off Cincinnati's hopes in Year 1 in the Big 12 after returning just a handful of the stars who led to the Bearcats' success over the past three seasons, hiring a new coach and adding a QB who has been cast off from two other Power 5 programs. But Scott Satterfield got the most out of Malik Cunningham, and Emory Jones' skill set is similar.
Oklahoma State was 6-1 with its lone loss a three-point thriller against TCU in late October. The Pokes had won 26 of their previous 31 at that point, with four of the five losses coming by a touchdown or less. They looked like genuine contenders. Then the wheels came off. They finished 1-5 with blowout losses to Kansas and K-State. That stretch coincided with a rash of injuries though, and there's ample reason to assume 2023 will be a rebound back to respectability -- and perhaps far better than that.
It turns out there was a good reason for Miami's disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2022. It was the players.
"It was about as opposite as you can get, bringing in our hard-nose blueprint and tireless work ethic and what Miami was doing [before]," said Mario Cristobal, who now enters his second season with a tad more skepticism than he had upon arrival.
It was, Cristobal said, a necessary step in returning Miami to greatness. And to be clear, this is a different necessary step than Randy Shannon's 5-7 season in his first year at Miami or Al Golden's 6-6 first campaign and definitely way different than Manny Diaz's 6-7 start in 2019.
Tier 8: Flirting with .500 (six teams)
Arizona
BYU
Missouri
Nebraska
UCF
Washington State
Over the past five seasons (that is, the Scott Frost era), Nebraska has been 7-25 in games decided by a touchdown or less. That's the worst mark of any FBS team by a pretty wide margin. It's six more losses -- more than one per year -- than any other team in the country. The 25 defeats represent 68% of the Huskers' total losses in that span. Indeed, if Nebraska had just played .500 ball in close games -- something statisticians suggest should happen over a large enough sample size -- it would've had a 29-27 team since 2018. That's not exactly good, but it's far better than the 19-37 mark the Cornhuskers actually sport. All of this is to say that the football gods have conspired against Nebraska for far too long -- and Matt Rhule is here to fix things! And on a totally unrelated note, Rhule was 6-17 in one-possession games as coach of the Carolina Panthers.
Missouri's regular-season record over the past three seasons is 17-17, and honestly, we cannot recall a single game the Tigers played in that span. They are the "Grey's Anatomy" of the SEC, the team you see flipping through channels and think, "Oh, right, I'd forgotten about them since I stopped watching in 2014."
No player in college football represents a broader range of potential outcomes every time he touches the football than Arizona's Jayden de Laura. He had four games under 50% completions and four games over 70%; four games with three or more touchdown passes and three with multiple interceptions; more total yards than C.J. Stroud and more turnovers than any other Power 5 player. He could throw for a 50-yard score, run for a TD, toss a pick, run a double-reverse flea-flicker to himself, go into the stands and trade the football for some nachos and a large Diet Coke. Honestly, anything is possible.
UCF saw some of its best talent bolt -- Ryan O'Keefe to Boston College, Matt Lee to Miami, Justin Hodges to Ole Miss and backup QB Mikey Keene to Fresno State. But there's still a lot to like about this UCF roster as it enters Year 1 in the Big 12. And while it's a step up in competition, the Knights are 7-5 versus Power 5 opposition since 2017, with four of the five losses coming by a touchdown or less.
Last year, Washington State was 7-0 versus unranked teams and 0-6 against ranked opponents. The good news is that after 2023, there are not likely to be many ranked Pac-12 teams for the Cougars to face.
Tier 9: The Power 5 is an antiquated notion and really football is just football and ... you've already stopped reading haven't you? (six teams)
Boise State
South Alabama
SMU
Toledo
Troy
UTSA
You might have missed it, but South Alabama was seven points away from finishing last regular season 12-0. The Jaguars' two losses both came to ranked teams too -- by one versus UCLA and by four to Troy.
Toledo also can look back at last season and wonder what might have been. Aside from a blowout loss to Ohio State, the Rockets' other four defeats all came by less than a touchdown, including two in which starting QB Dequan Finn was largely (or entirely) absent.
Now remember that South Alabama returns the third-most production from last season and Toledo the 14th-most production.
Only six quarterbacks in the country last season had 10 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns, 2,000 pass yards and 500 rush yards. Boise State's Taylen Green was one of them, and he didn't make his first start until Week 5. Green became a star, but the Broncos' bread and butter was the defense, which ranked fourth nationally in successful play rate, just ahead of Georgia.
Here's the full list of FBS QBs with multiple seasons of 3,000 pass yards, 500 rush yards, 30 touchdowns and less than 10 interceptions in the playoff era: Frank Harris of UTSA. That's the whole list. And he could do it for a third straight year in 2023.
Troy was one of the most iconic Hail Mary throws in recent memory away from finishing 13-1 last season. On the other hand, Troy also won five games by a touchdown or less. The football gods are fickle.
Tier 10: Don't bet against them (five teams)
Houston
Iowa State
Liberty
Purdue
West Virginia
Iowa State opened last year 3-0 and appeared poised to be a contender in the Big 12. Then the Cyclones lost their next four by seven points, three points, one point and three points, respectively. Blame belonged entirely with the offense, which failed to top 14 points seven times. If backers are a bit more comfortable taking the over in Iowa State games this year, there's a path back to Big 12 contention.
At one point last season, Liberty was 8-1, with its only loss coming on a failed two-point try versus Wake Forest. Then the Hugh Freeze-to-Auburn rumors gained steam, the Flames lost four straight (including to UConn and a 49-14 embarrassment to New Mexico State) and finished 8-5. But four of the five defeats were by three points or less, and new coach Jamey Chadwell arrives from Coastal Carolina with a winning offensive formula and arguably the easiest schedule in college football in the past 10 years.
Houston won five games by a touchdown or less. The Cougars also lost three games by a total of 13 points. They won five games in which they trailed in the fourth quarter. They lost two in which they held a late lead. They came within a whisper of beating Tulane. They allowed 77 to SMU. Some weeks, Dana Holgorsen's hair looked well-manicured; some weeks, it was like he'd gone through a car wash on a unicycle. (Note: Both of those are great.)
We were going to have West Virginia a few tiers lower, but we don't want to make Neal Brown mad again.
Tier 11: They're frisky enough to pull a surprise (13 teams)
Air Force
Appalachian State
Army
Coastal Carolina
FAU
Fresno State
Georgia Southern
James Madison
Marshall
North Texas
Ohio
San Diego State
Western Kentucky
Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings have North Texas ranked just behind Rutgers and just ahead of Liberty, which feels both way off and possibly accurate. It's hard to know what to expect from this team, which took UTSA and Boise State to the wire last year, beat Western Kentucky and topped 30 points eight times. But the Mean Green also were blown out by SMU, UNLV and UAB. They'll open the season with Stone Earle at QB, though, and it's destiny for North Texas to have a QB1 who sounds like he leads a killer blues band on his off days.
Austin Reed threw for 4,700 yards and 40 touchdowns last season, and he might challenge Bailey Zappe's single-season TD record.
App State lost six games last year -- by two points, four, 12, seven, seven and three. In other words, the Mountaineers used up all their mojo in the first three weeks. A new season should bring some better luck.
Here are the QBs who had 3,000 pass yards, 25 pass TDs and five or fewer interceptions last season returning for 2023: USC's Caleb Williams, Florida State's Jordan Travis, Tulane's Michael Pratt and Ohio's Kurtis Rourke. On the other side of the ball, Ohio didn't allow an opponent to score more than 27 after Week 6 last season.
Georgia Southern beat Nebraska, which seemed good at the time but, as we later learned, doomed the Eagles' season because Nebraska passed along its bad vibes like some type of monkey's paw curse. Clay Helton did, however, implement a legitimately modern offense at a place built upon the triple option, and Year 2 should come with some intriguing upside.
Tom Herman recruited Casey Thompson to Texas. Neither coach nor QB worked out well, but they are reunited now at FAU. What are the odds the Owls win more games than Texas this season?
No team had a higher successful play rate on defense last season than JMU.
No. 2 on that list? Marshall.
Tier 12a: Possibly better than everyone thinks (three teams)
Boston College
Memphis
Vanderbilt
The BC offensive line was so bad last year that the game plan basically became chuck it up in the general direction of Zay Flowers and hope for the best. This was actually an effective enough strategy to beat Louisville and NC State. Now, the Eagles have All-American contender Christian Mahogany back healthy with an improved group of younger linemen surrounding him, an intriguing QB in Emmett Morehead and a playbook capable of being executed without someone in the backfield being leveled by an oncoming train.
Memphis finished 7-6 last season and was largely an afterthought in the AAC. But five of the Tigers' six losses came by 10 points or less, including three by a field goal or less, so a little better luck could have Memphis back as a contender for a conference title.
In the summer of 2022, Clark Lea suggested his goal was for Vanderbilt to become the best program in college football. Much like the Commodores' stadium, those big plans are, at best, half-built at the moment. Still, Vandy finished last season 5-7, with relatively close losses to Missouri and South Carolina. It's not wild to think the Dores could be a bowl team in 2023 if things break right.
Tier 12b: Probably worse than everyone thinks (one team)
The Buffs have the feel of a Silicon Valley start-up: tons of exposure; a promise to disrupt the whole college football system; a self-styled savant leading the charge; and in two or three years, we'll learn there was never a chance of it turning a profit. In both cases, we'll be left with little more than a reasonably entertaining Netflix documentary to show for it. At least Colorado has done us the favor of scheduling TCU, Oregon and USC in the first month, so the hype can only last so long.
Tier 13: A small ray of hope (five teams)
Arizona State
Cal
Georgia Tech
Michigan State
Virginia Tech
Michigan State went 5-7 last year. Six of its seven losses came by double digits. The Spartans have four preseason AP top-10 teams on the schedule this year, plus road dates with Iowa and Minnesota. Getting bowl eligible would be a huge accomplishment.
Last year at Old Dominion, Ali Jennings had 15 receptions on throws of 20 or more yards downfield despite playing in just nine games. Virginia Tech's entire receiving corps had just 14 such catches. Jennings is part of a far better Hokies offensive attack in 2023, but if the O-line can't block a whole lot better, it's going to be hard to exploit any downfield threats.
Cal won just four games last year, but five of its eight losses came by a touchdown or less. Plus, the Bears' QB is named Sam Jackson V, and we're eagerly awaiting a chance for him to yell, "I have had it with these bleeping pass-rushers in this bleeping backfield" as he throws a bomb over the middle to a wide-open receiver.
Jaden Rashada emerging as Arizona State's starting QB feels like just the right amount of spite delivered to Florida fans this season.
Brent Key's favorite musician is Jimmy Buffett, which seems like as good a reason as any to think Georgia Tech can make a bowl game this year.
Tier 14: Not half-bad, but probably like 41% bad (10 teams)
Central Michigan
UConn
Eastern Michigan
Georgia State
Middle Tennessee
San José State
Southern Miss
UAB
UNLV
USF
In 2021, Central Michigan scored 37 more points off turnovers than its opponents. In 2022, it scored 61 fewer. That equates to about 8.2 points per game. Those swings tend to reverse year over year, which should get the Chips back to a bowl game in 2023.
Eleven schools finished last season undefeated at home. Ten of them won 10 games overall. The other was 7-5 San José State.
UNLV came within one win of a bowl game last year -- a feat the Rebels have managed just once since 2001. Worse, UNLV had ample chances to get to six W's, losing by six to Cal, four to San Diego State, seven to Fresno State and six to Hawai'i.
Here is a list of the QBs who return for 2023 who have posted at least 45 touchdowns, 5,500 yards and less than 12 interceptions over the past two seasons: Caleb Williams, Jordan Travis, Bo Nix, KJ Jefferson, Grayson McCall and Georgia State's Darren Grainger.
MTSU won eight games last year, which is good. But this season, the Blue Raiders play two games against SEC teams and none against Miami, so they're due for a step back.
USF is 8-37 over the past four seasons, which should be a good indicator that the Bulls will be a train wreck again in 2023. Instead, let's make the case for a quick turnaround.
From Oct. 1 through the end of the season, USF averaged 2.63 points per drive, good for 29th nationally. The Bulls averaged nearly 10 explosive plays per game last season. While they finished 1-11, those 11 losses came by an average of 16 points -- not good, but down from 20 per game over the prior three seasons. Indeed, four losses came by a touchdown or less, and USF was tied or ahead in the fourth quarter of three games it ultimately lost. Over the previous three seasons, that happened only four times total. It was progress.
Now add a new coaching staff under Alex Golesh and a watered-down American Athletic Conference (which says goodbye to Cincinnati, Houston and UCF), in which the Bulls will play just three teams -- Western Kentucky, Alabama and UTSA -- that won more than seven games last season.
The offense is good. The defense can't be worse. The schedule helps. There's a formula for a bowl game here, and maybe more.
Tier 15: The academics are really good, though ... (five teams)
Indiana
Northwestern
Rutgers
Stanford
Virginia
Indiana hasn't beaten an FBS team by more than a touchdown since November 2020.
Northwestern has lost 11 straight and 17 of its past 18, and scored more than one touchdown in just one game after Oct. 1 last year. And then of course Pat Fitzgerald was fired amid hazing claims.
Stanford is 14-28 over the past four seasons and averaged fewer fans per home game in 2022 than Boston College. So it's easy to see why the ACC wants the Cardinal so badly.
Over the past four seasons, Rutgers has scored at least 28 points against seven FBS opponents. Over the past four seasons, Rutgers has been shut out by seven FBS opponents.
Virginia's QB is named Tony Muskett. We're trying to think of other reasons to get excited about Virginia's 2023 season, but ... yeah. Tony Muskett is a good name.
Tier 16: They probably won't be awful (10 teams)
Buffalo
East Carolina
Louisiana
Louisiana Tech
Miami (Ohio)
Northern Illinois
Old Dominion
Tulsa
Utah State
Wyoming
ODU announced Fordham transfer Grant Wilson will be the team's starting QB for the opener against Virginia Tech. This is the Monarchs' ninth different Week 1 starting QB in the past 10 years. Oh, and they didn't play at all in 2020. The last ODU QB to start back-to-back openers was Taylor Heinicke, from 2011 to 2014.
Unlike ODU's QB merry-go-round, ECU will start someone other than Holton Ahlers in Week 1 for the first time since 2016 (and that was Gardner Minshew). There have been four "Fast and Furious" movies since the last time Ahlers didn't open the season as the Pirates' starter. But it isn't only QB where ECU starts anew in 2023. Only Kent State returns less production from 2022 than ECU, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly.
Louisiana Tech is just 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less over the past two seasons, but it's a team that showed clear improvement in the latter half of last season. The Bulldogs have one of the easiest schedules in the country this season.
No team in college football had better close-game luck in 2020 and 2021 than Louisiana, which was an astonishing 13-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. So what happened in 2022? The Ragin' Cajuns went 0-4 in one-possession games. We could blame the loss of Billy Napier, but then Florida fans might offer to give him back.
Tier 17: They might be awful (five teams)
Arkansas State
Colorado State
Navy
Rice
Temple
Colorado State has not scored four touchdowns in a game since Oct. 16, 2021. The Rams didn't top 20 points last year. Twenty! They've now gone 13 straight games without topping 20, something no other FBS team had done since FIU went 14 straight in 2006 and 2007. The next-longest active streak in the country is seven (New Mexico), and no other team has gone more than five. Even Iowa fans would be disgusted. But hey, the defense was good enough that Colorado State actually won three games, so maybe there's something to build upon.
Arkansas State lost five games last season in which it had a lead in the fourth quarter. The Red Wolves were 3-5 overall when leading in the fourth quarter. USF was the only other FBS team that finished with a losing record in such games.
Stan Drayton had a big job on his hands when he took over at Temple last season, and it showed early with a 30-0 loss to Duke, a 24-3 loss to Memphis and a 70-13 drubbing by UCF. But after that, it sure looked like Temple at least began to figure things out. From Week 8 on, the Owls won just one game, but lost just one by double digits, too. Sometimes the small steps forward are harder to see, but they lead to bigger leaps the next season.
Navy kicks off its first season without Ken Niumatalolo since 2007, but it was probably time for a change. For all of Niumatalolo's success in Annapolis, the Midshipmen had won four or fewer games in four of the past five years.
JT Daniels will get the start at QB for Rice after also starting at USC, Georgia and West Virginia. If he can somehow sneak in one more school before his career is over, he earns a free sub from participating Blimpie locations.
Tier 18: Welcome to the club (two teams)
Jacksonville State
Sam Houston
Sam Houston was actually born in Virginia and served as the governor of Tennessee.
Jacksonville State is actually in Jacksonville, Alabama, not Jacksonville, Florida.
We're still learning about our new FBS friends.
Tier 19: It could be worse (six teams)
Ball State
Bowling Green
Louisiana-Monroe
Nevada
UTEP
Western Michigan
After a 2-0 start, Nevada dropped 10 straight to end the season. The advanced metrics don't hate the Wolf Pack, though. FPI ranks them ahead of UConn and La Tech. SP+ has them ahead of Georgia Southern and UNLV. Are these backhanded compliments? Of course. But the point is, no one in Reno needs to feel too bad for themselves this season. Well, no one at a Nevada game, anyway. The rest of you ...
Bowling Green actually went, um, bowling last season, which was a huge step forward. And yet, FPI ranks the Falcons 127th nationally, and SP+ has them 128th.
Ball State, Western Michigan and UTEP all finished 5-7 last year, and somehow it felt worse than that.
Tier 20: Told you it could be worse (nine teams)
Akron
Charlotte
FIU
Hawai'i
Kent State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Texas State
UMass
A quick recap of Charlotte's offseason: The 49ers hired Biff Poggi, a hedge-fund manager who'd also been a dominant high school coach in Maryland, then was the star of an HBO documentary, before serving as Jim Harbaugh's right-hand man at Michigan. After taking the job, he brought in a slew of his former players from St. Francis High, got another documentary green-lit, called out the city of Charlotte for not supporting the team, got into a Twitter battle with one of Charlotte's most devoted fans as well as an App State assistant, yelled at the media for not asking enough questions, and called the NCAA "idiots" for trying to punish Harbaugh. Basically he's a cross between Joe Moglia and Woody Hayes, coaching at a place that will either be the most interesting three-win team in the country or somehow win nine games and overthrow the local government, creating a pseudo-military state that controls huge swaths of area north of I-277. Honestly, we can't wait to see what happens.