Georgia and TCU are more similar than you think. The two combatants in Monday night's College Football Playoff National Championship (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN App) both like to spread defenses out with lots of quick, horizontal passes. They both spend a majority of their time lined up in a 3-3-5 defense, or something very close to it. They are a combined 27-1 this season, and they have both risen to the occasion whenever asked.
They boast plenty of dissimilarities, too, of course. Georgia is one of the sport's three great recruiting powerhouses along with Alabama (the team the Bulldogs beat in last season's national title game) and Ohio State (the team they beat in last week's CFP semifinal). Kirby Smart's Bulldogs are aiming for a second straight national title, and this will be the sixth straight season they have finished in the AP top 10.
TCU, on the other hand, is riding the hot hand of a first-year head coach -- Texas native and former Louisiana Tech, Cal and SMU head man Sonny Dykes -- and a roster loaded with experience but not necessarily awash with the volume of former blue-chippers typically required for a title run. The Horned Frogs had gone just 23-24 over the four seasons before Dykes' arrival, and while he inherited a roster with potential, "potential" was far more likely to mean "They could go 8-4 or so" than this.
By Tuesday morning, either we will be talking about a burgeoning dynasty and the first team to repeat as champ in a decade or we will be talking about the most incredible and unlikely national champion the sport has seen in 30 or 40 years, at minimum. The sportsbooks suggest that the former is far more likely than the latter. Georgia is favored by 12.5 points, per Caesars, and the most recent two times we've had a spread even as large as 9.5 points in the title game, we've seen blowouts: Alabama was -9.5 against both Ohio State in 2020 and Notre Dame in 2012 and won both games by 28.
A blowout could certainly be on the table here, too. But the two games with spreads that large before Bama's big wins? Both upsets. The last four times we've seen a double-digit spread in the Super Bowl? All upsets. You never know.
Here's everything you need to follow about a potentially fascinating national title game.
SP+ rankings
Georgia: first overall, 12th offense, fourth defense, eighth special teams
TCU: sixth overall, fifth offense, 37th defense, 30th special teams
Key injuries and absences
Georgia: Out -- LB Nolan Smith (pectoral), S Dan Jackson (foot); questionable -- TE Darnell Washington (ankle), RT Warren McClendon (knee), OLB Chaz Chambliss (knee); probable -- WR Ladd McConkey (knee)
TCU: Questionable -- RB Kendre Miller (knee)
The rarity of a repeat champion
Miami never did it. Neither did Florida State in Bobby Bowden's prime. Nick Saban, quite possibly the greatest college football coach of all time (and Kirby Smart's longtime mentor), has done it only once. Urban Meyer, the second-most successful head coach of the 2000s, never did it.
Repeating as national champion is absurdly difficult. Since the end of World War II, only 10 teams have done it, and six of them needed a split title to pull it off. (Split titles: Who needs 'em?) The others? Notre Dame did it in 1946 and '47 with a level of stockpiled talent no one in the age could approach. Oklahoma did it in 1955 and '56, rolling to 47 straight wins with an innovative offense and a large percentage of the elite talent that the states of Texas and Oklahoma had to offer. Nebraska did it in 1994 and '95 with absurd defense, line play you could only dream of and a downright unfair hoard of I-backs and Schlesingers. Alabama did it in 2011 and '12 with an even better defense and both the greatest recruiting machine and the most obsessive CEO coach in the sport.
That's the list. Four teams repeating without split titles. Georgia could make it five Monday.
Smart coordinated the aforementioned Alabama defense; he knows as well as anyone both what the blueprint looks like and how difficult it is to put together. He has built a recruiting war machine that matches his former mentor's in Tuscaloosa, and he has fielded a series of defenses nearly on par with Saban's best. With offensive coordinator Todd Monken, he has figured out how to craft an offensive identity that pairs elements of spread modernity with the physicality he craves.
After losing half of their defensive starting lineup to the first round of last spring's NFL draft, after dealing with random attention-span issues and a few key injuries, and after surviving a ferocious Peach Bowl semifinal against Ohio State on Saturday, the Dawgs are banged up but on the doorstep of a repeat. They went 41 years between titles before ending the drought last season; they might end up having to wait only 12 months for another. What a run.
The rarity of TCU
The best comparison I can come up with to this year's Horned Frogs is the 1996 Arizona State team. Bruce Snyder's Sun Devils had gone just 21-23 over the previous four seasons as Snyder slowly built the depth and experience necessary to dig the program out of a permanent .500 state.
ASU boasted a gritty and experienced quarterback in Jake "the Snake" Plummer, plus soon-to-be All-Americans at receiver (Keith Poole) and on both lines (Juan Roque on offense, Derrick Rodgers on defense) and future NFL All-Pro safety Pat Tillman roaming from sideline to sideline. The Sun Devils won four of their last five games in 1995 to build some hype, and they began 1996 ranked 20th in the preseason AP poll.
As it turned out, that wasn't nearly enough hype. ASU beat Washington to start the season, then shocked two-time defending national champ Nebraska 19-0 in Week 3. They charged to 11-0 and second in the polls, and if they had beaten No. 4 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl and No. 3 Florida had knocked off No. 1 Florida State in the Sugar Bowl, the Sun Devils could have potentially snagged at least a share of the national title.
Arizona State! Winning a national title! In our lifetimes (as long as you're at least 26)! And it almost happened! Plummer plowed into the end zone with 1 minute, 40 seconds left in the fourth quarter to give ASU a 17-14 lead over John Cooper's ultra-talented Buckeyes, and the Sun Devils needed just one more stop to win a ring.
Alas, Joe Germaine found David Boston for a touchdown with 19 seconds left, and even though Florida held up its end of the bargain in New Orleans, ASU fell just short.
TCU has a stronger recent history than Arizona State did at that point -- the Horned Frogs finished in the AP top 10 six times (with No. 2 and No. 3 finishes) under Gary Patterson between 2008 and 2017 -- but not recent recent. They were under .500 over the past four seasons, they received no votes in the preseason AP poll this summer and voters picked them to finish seventh in the Big 12.
In the eight previous seasons of the CFP era, all 16 eventual finalists were in the preseason top 15, and 14 were in the top six. In 24 years of the BCS and CFP, 44 of 48 finalists were in the preseason top 15, and the only team that started out unranked -- Auburn in 2013 -- had been in the title game three years prior.
By the standard college football has set for itself and its non-bluebloods, TCU reaching this point was virtually impossible. Depending on your standards, Dykes' Horned Frogs are one win from the least likely national title since either 1990 (co-champ Georgia Tech) or 1984 (BYU). They are an inspiration to what one might call college football's middle class, and they have gotten to this point with a recipe that many other programs will think they can emulate. They boast a smattering of well-placed blue-chippers and a grizzled lineup of veterans who have dealt with more than their fair share of disappointment and adversity.
The offense leans on a single, sparkling five-star recruit -- receiver Quentin Johnston, who has no right to be as fast as he is at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds -- plus a four-star quarterback from Iowa (Heisman runner-up Max Duggan, who is approaching 10,000 career passing yards) and a deep set of mid-three-star veterans playing within offensive coordinator Garrett Riley's wide-open system.
Defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie's rotation, meanwhile, features transfers from New Mexico (defensive end Dylan Horton), Navy (linebacker Johnny Hodges), Louisiana-Monroe (cornerback Josh Newton) and Stephen F. Austin (defensive tackles Caleb Fox), plus a load of juco transfers and former mid-three-star recruits. Only a single freshman, 320-pound defensive tackle Damonic Williams, is featured. This is a drastically experienced squad; the Horned Frogs are fast and mean, and they've seen some things.
When you see words like "grizzled" and "veteran," you probably picture a team with maturity and resilience but not blessed in the speed and athleticism departments. TCU wouldn't have gotten here without the latter; the Frogs were faster than Michigan, and that ended up being one of the biggest factors in the game. There is upside amid the veteranosity.
Their biggest statistical strengths to date:
Raw explosiveness. The Frogs' offense averages 3.4 gains per game of 30-plus yards and 1.5 of 50-plus; only Tennessee averaged more this season. The Frogs are among the best at carving out chunk plays via either run or pass. They're good at going deep -- Duggan completes 48% of his passes at least 20 yards downfield (national average: 38%) and trusts his receivers in 50-50 situations -- but they're also good at turning short passes into 15-yard gains (or, in Johnston's case against Michigan, 76 yards), and Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado have combined for 17 rushes of 20-plus yards. They create space for their best speediest players, who take advantage of it.
A double-digit underdog in a game like this looks for opportunities to increase the game's variance, something that scrambles the odds a bit and potentially increases the likelihood of both an upset win and a blowout loss. TCU's all-or-nothing tendencies -- the Frogs are ridiculously explosive but rank only 50th in success rate -- qualify. They can suffer droughts, then score in bursts.
Offensive balance. The Frogs are happy to run the ball until they get stopped -- they've topped 40 carries in six games this year, including the win over Michigan -- and if teams decide they have to keep seven or more defenders in the box, Duggan will hit them with a big pass. Like Georgia, the Frogs are solid with both the run and the horizontal pass, which stretches defenses out enough to open up opportunities downfield. (And they've been better than Georgia at hitting those downfield shots.) Whatever their opponent can't stop, they'll do.
The defense will work teams over once they're behind schedule. One of the most important stats from the semifinals: TCU was 8-for-16 (50%) on third and fourth downs, and Michigan was 3-for-15 (20%). The key was that 11 of the Frogs' 16 conversion attempts required 4 or fewer yards, while eight of Michigan's 15 required 5 or more. The Wolverines were 1-for-7 on third- or fourth-and-long.
Michigan was far more successful on first down than the Horned Frogs -- 49% success rate (gaining 50% or more of yards needed for a first down) and 10.3 yards per play vs. 38% and 6.9 for TCU -- and Georgia probably will be too. The Dawgs are the more efficient team. But when Michigan fell behind schedule, TCU made it hell to catch back up. This could be an issue for Georgia too.
Georgia and the short blanket
There's a saying in soccer that the sport is like a short blanket -- if you cover your head, you uncover your feet. Your goal is to cover what needs covering the most and cope with everything else. The same goes for American football, at least for teams that don't recruit like Georgia.
We spent much of the run-up to last week's Fiesta Bowl talking about Michigan's rushing ability and whether TCU and its 3-3-5 defense could cope. The Frogs coped. Michigan's Donovan Edwards rushed for 54 yards on his first carry of the game but gained just 65 in his next 22 rushes. Fourteen of his carries gained 3 or fewer yards.
TCU elected to cover its head (the run defense) and left its feet -- its stellar pass defense -- uncovered, and it just barely worked. Michigan's J.J. McCarthy went 20-for-34 for 343 yards -- easily a career high for the sophomore -- but he also took three sacks, fumbled once and threw two game-changing pick-sixes. Michigan averaged 7.0 yards per play despite the inefficient rushing but made one too many mistakes.
So what the heck do you choose to cover up if you're playing Georgia?
Do you keep as many bodies as possible in or near the box to account for the manpower the Bulldogs can plug into their run game?
Do you keep your safeties low in anticipation of their sideline-to-sideline, tight end-heavy passing game, risking big plays in the process?
Do you keep your safeties back, attempt to curb big plays and try to limit Georgia's good-not-great red zone offense to field goals while getting gashed between the 20s?
It is difficult to know what is most important to stop against Georgia because the Dawgs are talented enough to beat you in every possible way. Like TCU, they'll run all day if you let them, and like TCU, they have multiple paths of efficiency thanks to a dynamite horizontal passing game. But they're both more efficient than the Horned Frogs -- they're third nationally in success rate (13th rushing, first passing) -- and, when healthy, they're bigger too.
Darnell Washington's injury against Ohio State rendered the Bulldogs far more customary, especially combined with Ladd McConkey's already limited state. The quick passing game, part of what I called Georgia's "manball spread" offense last week, ground to a halt after the first quarter. On passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage, Bennett was 3-for-3 for 25 yards and a touchdown in the first 12 minutes of the game and just 2-for-4 for 23 in the final 48.
Due to some combination of injury and Ohio State's own defensive structure, Bennett began looking more downfield as the game progressed, which opened him up to more hits (he was pressured on 32% of his pass attempts, nearly double the 18% from the regular season) and created tighter passing windows. He threw one interception and came close to a couple more, but the Buckeyes couldn't take enough advantage of his mistakes, and it eventually doomed them. Bennett ended up completing eight passes of 20-plus yards (he averaged 3.8 such completions in the regular season), three of which came in the fourth quarter.
Washington and McConkey combined for just three catches and 8 yards, and Ohio State did a good job of forcing Bennett to look away from Brock Bowers as well (he had one catch in the first three quarters). But eventually Georgia's depth shined through: Lesser-used wideouts Arian Smith, Adonai Mitchell (freshly back from injury), Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Kearis Jackson and Dominick Blaylock combined for 10 catches, 261 yards and two scores.
Georgia can evidently now beat you with the run, the horizontal pass and the vertical pass. At least, the Dawgs can if they're healthy. McConkey and Washington are keys to the manball spread, and if they are less than 100%, that might cover up one thing. If Georgia cannot stretch TCU horizontally as much as it wants, that turns the Dawgs into more of a Michigan, with a physical run game and a quarterback who will both make plays and create a couple of turnover opportunities. TCU took advantage of J.J. McCarthy's mistakes; pulling an upset will require the Frogs to do the same with Bennett's, however many he gives them.
What's wrong with the Georgia defense?
On Nov. 5, Georgia put together one of the most impressive defensive displays of the Kirby Smart era -- hell, one of the most impressive of the 2000s. Against a Tennessee team that finished the year averaging 7.4 yards per play and 48.8 points per game against everyone else, the Dawgs gave up virtually nothing. Tennessee averaged 3.9 yards per play in a comfortable 27-13 Georgia win. The Vols gained more than 30 yards in just three of 11 drives and were never closer than 14 points in the final 44 minutes.
Even with early-season injuries to players such as Jalen Carter, and even with so many draft picks gone, Georgia's defense looked like, well, Georgia's defense. The Dawgs were first in defensive SP+, and against a set of FBS opponents that averaged 6.1 yards per play against other FBS defenses, they were allowing just 4.7.
The past five games have been a different story. Against five opponents that had otherwise averaged 5.7 yards per play against FBS defenses, Georgia allowed ... 5.7 yards per play. These opposing offenses have exceeded SP+ projections by an average of 9.1 points per game against the Dawgs -- 16.7 in the past three games.
Georgia is now fourth in defensive SP+. Against LSU in the SEC championship game, the Dawgs gave up 7.6 yards per play and 30 points; one can make the fair point that 20 of those 30 points came in the second half, when Georgia was already up big (the score was 35-10 at halftime), but last week Ohio State averaged 7.1 yards per play, scored 41 points, led much of the game and had the game on its kicker's leg at the end. (Noah Ruggles missed a 50-yard field goal, and Georgia survived 42-41.)
The glitches these past two weeks have primarily come in pass defense: LSU's Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud combined to complete 54 of 85 passes for 850 yards and seven touchdowns. After getting burned quite a bit while blitzing -- in their first three games post-Tennessee, opponents were a combined 18-for-28 for 282 yards with no sacks or picks against the UGA blitz -- the Dawgs seemed to get more passive against LSU and Ohio State, blitzing only seven times against the pass in both games. The passivity backfired, just as it probably will against TCU if Duggan isn't under pressure.
Is it possible that even Georgia can get bogged down by attrition? It's probably not a coincidence that free safety Dan Jackson (foot) and outside linebacker Nolan Smith (pectoral), easily the Dawgs' most successful pass-rusher this season, were both lost for the season to injury before this five-game span. The only player on the team to have topped 750 snaps this season is a freshman; granted, it's a phenomenal freshman (safety Malaki Starks), but he's still in his first year on campus.
No one will be surprised if Georgia stiffens up and dominates Monday night. After all, against the two best offenses the Dawgs have faced besides Ohio State's, they held Tennessee (second in offensive SP+) and Oregon (sixth) to 16 combined points. We know what they're capable of. But they haven't shown that side of themselves for a couple of months. Miller and Demercado might find the going rough against Carter and the Georgia front, but if Duggan has time to find open receivers, receivers will come open in this system.
What we can learn from past upsets
As rare as it is for a team like TCU to get here, a win would be far rarer. Over the past 40 years, there are only three instances of a top-two team falling as a double-digit favorite in the postseason. Part of this stems from the fact that bowl matchups tend to be relatively even -- there were only 12 games in the entire sample. But three's not a very big number.
There's a general script that upsets tend to follow -- timeliness in the turnovers department, red zone wins (you score TDs while your opponent kicks field goals), big plays at just the right time and so on -- but let's look back at these three impeccable upsets and see how they came about.
1984 Orange Bowl: No. 5 Miami (+11) 31, No. 1 Nebraska 30
One of the most famous upsets in the history of the sport. Howard Schnellenberger's Hurricanes came out of the gate throwing haymakers. They went on a 17-0 run over eight minutes in the first quarter, and when Nebraska caught back up, a 14-0 spurt over five minutes in the third quarter gave them the points they needed. Nebraska came into the game regarded as one of the greatest teams ever, but it failed on a 2-point conversion attempt in the final minute. The U had its first title.
The numbers:
Yards: Miami 430, Nebraska 459
Yards per play: Miami 6.8, Nebraska 5.3
First downs per play: Miami 34.9%, Nebraska 27.9%
Turnovers: Miami 2, Nebraska 2 (the Huskers fumbled six times but lost just one)
Third downs: Miami 4-for-10 (40%), Nebraska 9-for-19 (47%)
Spurts and big plays did the deed for The U. It had a 48-yard punt return and five passes of 20-plus yards, and that was just enough to overcome the ruthlessly efficient Nebraska offense.
2001 Orange Bowl: No. 1 Oklahoma (+11.5) 13, No. 2 Florida State 2
Bobby Bowden's Seminoles, the defending national champions, were led by Heisman winner Chris Weinke and All-American receiver Snoop Minnis. Bob Stoops' Sooners completely shut them down. Linebackers Rocky Calmus and Torrance Marshall, and with Minnis academically ineligible, and a speedy young secondary harassed and confused Weinke into a 25-for-51 performance with a pair of interceptions. Sooners safety Roy Williams recovered a Weinke fumble at the FSU 15 in the fourth quarter, setting up a short Quentin Griffin touchdown that basically iced the game.
Yards: FSU 301, OU 270
Yards per play: FSU 4.4, OU 3.6
First downs per play: FSU 20.3%, OU 16.0%
Turnovers: FSU 3, OU 2
Third downs: OU 7-for-19 (37%), FSU 1-for-15 (7%)
The Noles severely limited Oklahoma quarterback Josh Heupel and gained nearly half of their yardage in the fourth quarter, but turnovers, failed scoring opportunities and OU's unique and speedy defense won the day, especially on third downs.
2003 Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State (+12) 31, No. 1 Miami 24
Twenty years ago, Miami was aiming to repeat as champ and was favored to do so. Jim Tressel's Buckeyes were led by quarterback Craig Krenzel -- the game-managingest game manager who ever managed games -- plus freshman running back Maurice Clarett and an unforgiving defense. Said defense forced three consecutive turnovers in the second quarter, engineered a 14-0 burst from it, and recovered enough fumbles to buy the offense time. Ohio State won in double overtime. Repeating is hard!
(Yes, there was a famous flag involved.)
Yards: Miami 369, OSU 267
Yards per play: Miami 4.8, OSU 3.7
First downs per play: Miami 24.7%, OSU 19.2%
Turnovers: Miami 5, OSU 2 (Miami fumbled three times and lost all of them)
Third downs: OSU 6-for-18 (33%), Miami 6-for-18 (33%)
Ohio State made the most of its opportunities, but obviously turnovers played a particularly large role in this one.
We can see threads from each of these games that we will probably see if TCU were to pull off an upset. These three underdogs ended up plus-four in the turnover column and won 53 of 99 total third downs (54%). All three teams remained patient, remained themselves, pounced on mistakes and, in two of three games, won with the type of scoring bursts we've seen a lot from TCU this year.
Projections
Caesars Sportsbook: Georgia 37.5, TCU 25 (Georgia -12.5, over/under 62.5 points)
SP+: Georgia 34.9, TCU 24.0
A lot of this piece was built around what a TCU upset might look like because, well, we know what a Georgia win will look like: The Dawgs control both lines, Duggan attempts too many passes on third-and-9 and gets torn down on perfectly timed blitzes, and eventually TCU's tank runs empty. This has been an incredible season no matter what, but Georgia might not be in the mood to give us an incredible title game.
With the injuries, however, Georgia isn't fully Georgia, either. TCU has plenty of 1984 Miami traits on offense and 2000 Oklahoma traits on defense, and if the Frogs nail the big-play opportunities they get, reel in a couple of interceptions and end up on the right side of high variance, an upset is very much on the table. I tend to look at the 12.5-point spread as splitting the difference between a 28-point Georgia win and a three-point TCU win. We either get a repeat or a miracle. Either one will be a hell of a story.