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          6 takeaways from the spectacular College Football Playoff semifinals

          • Bill ConnellyJan 1, 2023, 04:15 PM ET
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              Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
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          For a couple of decades, the NFL's popularity skyrocketed despite its main event. In the 20 years from 1983 to 2002, we saw Super Bowls decided by scores of 38-9, 38-16, 46-10, 39-20, 42-10, 55-10, 37-24, 52-17, 30-13, 49-26, 35-21, 34-19, 34-7 and 48-21. In 40 combined NFC and AFC Championship Games in that span, 20 were decided by at least 17 points. The league has always aimed for parity, but we rarely saw evidence of that in its biggest games.

          Be it in the NFL or college football's lower levels, sometimes elimination games just get out of hand. One team gets on top, the other lets go of the rope a bit after a long season, and bad things happen.

          Sometimes, however, you just have particularly good or bad stretches of games. It's been a great stretch of late: In the past 19 seasons, the Super Bowl has given us 12 down-to-the-wire classics. All seven of last year's quarterfinal-or-later playoff games were decided by three points or in overtime.

          College football has always been an oligarchy ruled by a chosen few, so it probably isn't a surprise that since the introduction of the College Football Playoff in 2014, we've seen some blowouts. In the CFP's first eight seasons, we only really got a handful of classics, and an even smaller number of those games came in the semifinals. Maybe that's the nature of the sport, but it was also just a bad stretch. We were due a couple of classics, and wow, did we get them Saturday.

          First, TCU upset Michigan 51-45 in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in a game that featured one of the sport's wildest quarters and a comeback bid that looked almost destined before a bad snap on the game's final play. Then, before we could even get our heart rates back down, Georgia beat Ohio State 42-41 in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, completing the comeback that Michigan could not and surviving when Ohio State's last second field goal went into the air in 2022 and sailed wide in 2023.

          Now that we've had a moment to catch our collective breath, here are six takeaways from a wonderful pair of semis.

          Jump to:
          Georgia's clutch factor
          The greatest timeout ever
          Following the script
          10 best CFP quarters ever
          Ranking the best semis
          Being unpredictable

          Georgia and winning time

          Late in the evening of Oct. 1, Harrison Mevis' 56-yard field goal with 14:09 left gave host Missouri a 22-12 lead early in the fourth quarter against defending national champion Georgia. The Bulldogs, 31-point favorites, were scattered and unfocused and responding slowly to an underdog that was taking the fight to them. They were down two scores and only guaranteed about two more possessions. They had to be just about perfect from that point forward.

          They were just about perfect from that point forward. They drove 75 yards in 10 plays to cut the deficit to three, forced a punt, then took the lead on a downright violent seven-play, 68-yard drive. They forced another three-and-out, ran out the clock and got the hell out of Dodge with a 26-22 win.

          A month later, against top-ranked rival Tennessee in one of their biggest home games ever, they landed early knockout punches, going up 21-3 in the first 16 minutes and cruising. A month after that, against LSU in Atlanta's SEC championship, they scored 28 points in just under 15 minutes to turn a 7-7 slog into a blowout before halftime.

          Georgia always rises to the occasion. It just takes a while sometimes. Saturday night in Atlanta, they almost waited too long. Star tackle Jalen Carter was a non-factor, making just one solo tackle. Star tight ends Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington, the secret sauce of what I've taken to calling the Dawgs' manball spread offense, combined for two catches in the first three quarters, and Washington left the game with an injury. Star wideout Ladd McConkey, slowed by injury himself, caught two passes for negative-one yard. Star cornerback Kelee Ringo could do nothing to stop Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr., who caught five balls for 106 yards and two scores before leaving with injury. Quarterback and Heisman finalist Stetson Bennett took two sacks, threw an interception and nearly threw a couple more. Nothing was working as it should for the champs.

          When it was time for Georgia to be perfect, however, Georgia was perfect. Down 38-35 with under four minutes left, with Ohio State having sliced inside the Georgia 25 with a chance to put the game away, Jamon Dumas-Johnson came up with an enormous sack of C.J. Stroud to push the Buckeyes backward and, after a third-down incompletion, force a field goal. Noah Ruggles narrowly made the 48-yarder, but Georgia was down only six. And when Bennett got the ball back, he completed passes of 2, 15, 35, 5 and 10 yards, the last throw going to Adonai Mitchell for the go-ahead touchdown with 54 seconds left.

          Everything almost fell apart again after Stroud took off on a 27-yard dash into field goal range -- Stroud was unbelievable, saving perhaps his best collegiate performance for what is likely his last game -- but the Dawgs again rose to the occasion, stuffing an ill-advised rush with 19 seconds left, forcing two incompletions and forcing the Buckeyes to settle for Noah Ruggles' badly struck 50-yard field goal attempt. Ohio State had the playmakers that Missouri lacked but still couldn't seal the deal. Georgia had too much poise and too much talent.

          A big reach and the greatest timeout of all time

          Damned if the Dawgs didn't almost wait too long to turn it on, though. And if Bowers' arms were just a little weaker, or if Kirby Smart was a millisecond slower to call a timeout, the game might have gotten out of reach.

          Early in the fourth quarter, with Georgia down 38-24, the Dawgs went for it on fourth-and-6 from the Ohio State 13. A field goal does you little good, right? Bennett threw a casual pass to Bowers short of the sticks, and Lathan Ransom tracked him down just before he could get the necessary yardage. Bowers went out of bounds, and the officials marked him short. On replay, however, it was evident Bowers' had kept himself in bounds and upright just long enough to reach the ball forward.

          If Bowers' thumb touches out of bounds or he can't hold himself up as long, Ohio State is up 14 with the ball. The Dawgs still ended up settling for a field goal after losing yardage -- a victory of sorts for the Buckeyes -- but those three points loomed large.

          The next possession, Ohio State went three-and-out after a Stroud rush came up a yard short. On fourth-and-1 however, they pulled off a perfect fake punt ... that was nullified when Georgia's coaching staff sniffed it out and Smart called a timeout milliseconds in advance.

          Unwilling to go for it with a regular play in that instance, Ohio State punted, and Georgia scored one play later when Bennett hit a wide-open Arian Smith for a 76-yard bomb. Without the timeout, Ohio State eats more clock and maybe puts the game out of reach with a score. With it, the Dawgs were back to within three points in 17 seconds. Best timeout in the history of football. (Or at least, that's what it felt like.)

          TCU followed the script

          In last week's semifinal preview, I acknowledged that the CFP had not yet given us many upsets and laid out a script of sorts for TCU to change that. Damned if the Horned Frogs didn't follow it perfectly.

          1. Max Duggan > J.J. McCarthy. With Michigan seemingly boasting more overall talent advantages, it was an absolute must that TCU win the quarterback battle. And when it comes to overall stats, you can make a pretty convincing case that he didn't. Michigan's McCarthy went 20-for-34 for 343 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 52 yards and another score. Duggan obviously had his moments, too, throwing for 225 yards, rushing for 57 and contributing to four touchdowns. He moved the chains seven times with his legs, and he was better on third downs, but McCarthy won the volume competition.

          Duggan won the mistakes competition, however. He threw two deflected interceptions (one that was at least partially on him and one that was very much on his receiver), but McCarthy threw a pair of ill-advised pick sixes, first to Bud Clark in the first quarter and then to Dee Winters in the third. He took more sacks (three to Duggan's one) and fumbled once, too. McCarthy had more positives and more negatives, and the latter ended up making a massive difference. And in the fourth quarter, Duggan was nearly perfect: 5-for-6 for 84 yards, a touchdown and a key, late third-down conversion rush.

          2. Turn contested passes into picks. From the preview: "Opponents have defensed (intercepted or broken up) 38 Michigan passes this season, and while national averages would typically dictate that about eight of those would turn into interceptions, opponents reeled in only four of them, three from McCarthy. [...] This game could flip quickly if TCU reels in a couple of ill-advised throws."

          This felt like a huge opportunity for the Horned Frogs, who boast one of the most active and disruptive pass defenses in the country. McCarthy indeed made quite a few big plays, but he was just 2-for-8 passing for 8 yards on third down, and it goes without saying that the pick-sixes were enormous, providing 13 points in a six-point win. Regression to the mean comes for us all; McCarthy learned that the hard way, and TCU's defense took advantage.

          3. Break even in the red zone. TCU did even better than that.

          So many of Michigan's lesser recent moments have been spurred by red zone failures. In last year's losses to Michigan State and Georgia, they turned nine total red zone trips into one touchdown while their opponents went 7-for-8. They almost fell to Illinois late in this season because they scored one touchdown in four red zone trips. For all of their rushing prowess, they never seem to hold onto a good red zone vibe for very long. And they certainly didn't on Saturday evening.

          • The Wolverines got a 54-yard up-the-middle explosion from Donovan Edwards on their first possession and drove to the TCU 2 but failed on fourth-and-goal.

          • In the second quarter, Roman Wilson's 50-yard reception was controversially ruled a non-touchdown by the replay official, and on first-and-goal inside the 1, Kalel Mullings lost a fumble.

          • They started their second half by driving as close as the TCU 3 but settled for another field goal.

          They finally got themselves right and scored TDs on four straight red zone drives, but the damage was done. Michigan finished with a 57% red zone touchdown rate, 40% in goal-to-go situations. TCU? One hundred percent in both categories. One team took its chances, and the other did not do so nearly enough. Guess which one advanced.

          Ranking the 10 greatest CFP quarters ever

          Above, I described the TCU-Michigan game as a rational entity, a game decided by things like "plays" and "averages" instead of vibes and total chaos. But make no mistake: This was the most wonderfully chaotic game of the playoff era. We saw two pick-sixes, after all, and a touchdown off of a flea-flicker. The deciding points came on a 76-yard shimmy-and-gallop from TCU star Quentin Johnson.

          Above all else, though, we saw the wildest and most incredible quarter of football the CFP has ever provided us.

          In the third quarter in Arizona, TCU and Michigan combined to gain 420 yards in just 38 plays. Five of those plays went for touchdowns, and three went for turnovers. There were 44 total points, nine gains of 20-plus yards and five of at least 34. With 6:32 left in the third quarter, following the flea-flicker, Michigan had cut TCU's lead to five points. Three minutes and 40 seconds later, the lead was 18. It was up to 19 with 49 seconds left in the quarter ... and it was down to three just 47 seconds into the fourth quarter.

          When Johnson scored on his 76-yard jaunt with 13:07 left, the camera panned to two older Michigan fans just laughing in the stands. You couldn't do anything else. It was madness of the most glorious kind. It was the gridiron version of the first round of the Marvin Hagler-Tommy Hearns fight. This sport has almost never given us anything like it.

          Behold, then, a list I had never thought of making before Saturday. Here are the 10 greatest single quarters of the playoff era.

          10. Clemson-Ohio State, second quarter (2019 semifinal). Ohio State almost seized total control but had to settle for a couple of field goals -- red zone strikes again! -- and went up only 16-0. By halftime, Clemson cut the lead to 16-14 after a short Travis Etienne Jr. touchdown and a 67-yard romp by Trevor Lawrence.

          9. Clemson-Alabama, fourth quarter (2016 final). It was pretty one-sided but still thrilling. Trailing the defending champs 24-14 heading into the fourth quarter, Clemson sliced through the Bama defense for a pair of scores to take the lead. A 30-yard Jalen Hurts score put Bama on top with 2:07 left, but Deshaun Watson and Hunter Renfrow connected from 2 yards with one second left to give the Tigers the title.

          8. Georgia-Oklahoma, second quarter (2017 semifinal). Thirty-five plays, 347 yards. OU's Rodney Anderson and Georgia's Sony Michel traded long touchdown runs, and OU scored with six seconds left in the half to go up 31-14. Somehow Georgia completed a pass and knocked in a 55-yard field goal at the halftime buzzer. Those three points become very important later on.

          7. Clemson-Ohio State, fourth quarter (2019 semifinal). Down after a 21-0 Clemson run, Ohio State seized the lead with a fourth-down touchdown pass, but Clemson drove 94 yards in just four plays to go back ahead with 1:49 left. The Buckeyes responded quickly, driving inside Clemson's 30, but Nolan Turner picked off Justin Fields in the end zone as the Tigers advanced.

          6. Georgia-Alabama, fourth quarter (2021 final). Down 13-9 heading into the final 15 minutes, Bama took the lead after a field goal, a wild fumble recovery and a short Cameron Latu touchdown. But forced to be perfect, Georgia was perfect. Stetson Bennett found Adonai Mitchell (40 yards) and Brock Bowers (15) for touchdowns, and with Bama driving with about a minute left, Kelee Ringo picked off an errant Bryce Young pass and, against his coach's protestations, returned it 79 yards for the championship-clinching score.

          5. Georgia-Ohio State, fourth quarter (2022 semifinal). Poor Ohio State has been on the wrong end of a few of these now.

          4. Alabama-Georgia, fourth quarter (2017 final). Down 20-10 with backup Tua Tagovailoa in the game, Bama got within seven with 9:24 left, then tied the game with a Tagovailoa-to-Calvin Ridley strike. After a Georgia three-and-out, Tagovailoa drove the Tide to the UGA 17 with just three seconds left, but Andy Pappanastos missed a 36-yarder at the buzzer to force overtime. (Pappanastos was doing us all a favor -- he was setting the table for the Tagovailoa-to-DeVonta Smith walk-off touchdown.)

          3. Georgia-Oklahoma, fourth quarter (2017 semifinal). Georgia completed a 21-0 run with a Javon Wims score, but OU quickly responded with a Baker Mayfield-to-Dimitri Flowers touchdown pass and a 46-yard fumble return. Georgia sent the game to overtime with a short Nick Chubb touchdown in the final minute.

          2. Alabama-Clemson, fourth quarter (2015 final). A weird 24-21 game turned into a free-for-all. Alabama tied the game at 24 with 10:34 left, then recovered a surprise onside kick and threw a 51-yard TD pass. Clemson kicked a field goal, but Kenyan Drake returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown. The teams traded three more scores, but Clemson couldn't recover a late onside kick and fell short after a 40-point final stanza.

          1. TCU-Michigan, third quarter (2022 semifinal). Most of the quarters on this list were fourth quarters, which makes sense -- it's where the most important stuff happens, after all. But in the next 50 years, college football might never again produce a 15-minute span this nutty. (I dare it to try, however.)

          Ranking CFP semifinals

          While we're in the mood to rank things, let's go a little bigger. We finally have enough great semifinals for a Best Semifinals list!

          5. Ohio State 42, Alabama 35 (2014)
          4. Clemson 29, Ohio State 23 (2019)
          3. Georgia 42, Ohio State 41 (2022)
          2. TCU 51, Michigan 45 (2022)
          1. Georgia 54, Oklahoma 48 (2017)

          I'm still going to give the wonderful Dawgs-Sooners Rose Bowl the nod and the No. 1 spot despite everything we saw on Saturday. I reserve the right to change my mind later on

          Georgia vs. TCU, just as we all predicted before the season

          It can sometimes feel like college football never changes, that the same names and the same teams remain on top of the sport. I just listed 10 quarters above, after all, and four teams (Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia) claimed 16 of the 20 spots in those games.

          Still, you'd be hard-pressed to convince either Kirby Smart or TCU's Sonny Dykes that the game is particularly predictable.

          Almost exactly six years ago, both coaches found themselves in limbo. Smart was finishing up his first season back in Athens, and it had very much not gone to plan. Hired to take the Dawgs to the next level after Mark Richt had come close so many times, he had instead gone just 8-5. Georgia ranked just 39th in SP+, the Dawgs' worst showing since 1999. They nearly lost to Nicholls State and did lose to both Vanderbilt and rival Georgia Tech. Star quarterback prospect Jacob Eason alternated between promise and listlessness. Georgia had fired Richt for being merely very good and wanted Smart to make them elite. It looked like the move might backfire.

          At least Smart had a job, though! On Jan. 8, 2017, Dykes was fired. He had taken the California job in 2013 and engineered just one winning season in four tries. Far from his Texas home base, he had figured out how to score points, but his four Cal defenses had averaged a 111.0 defensive SP+ rating. Sensing things weren't working out, Dykes had begun to look at other jobs, and the school decided to cut bait. He would spend 2017 as an offensive analyst for Gary Patterson at TCU before landing the SMU job, at the Group of 5 level, in 2018. He finally got another power conference gig when TCU brought him back to Fort Worth a year ago.

          Six years later, Smart and Dykes will shake hands in southern California next Monday night. Then their teams will fight for the national title. Georgia got here through Smart's relentless recruiting and some well-timed offensive evolution. TCU got here with countless clutch moments, Hypnotoad vibes and Dykes' ever-steady hand. Here's to hoping the championship game tops what we saw Saturday.