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Week 11 bowl projections: CFP, New Year's Six

AP Photo/John McCoy

While there weren't any truly dramatic upsets this weekend, there were some key results in terms of the ever-changing bowl picture, from the College Football Playoff on down.

TCU solidified its spot as a top-four team (at least for the time being) with a win over Texas, and LSU stayed in the playoff hunt by edging Arkansas. But things weren't so rosy in the Pac-12, where Oregon and UCLA both suffered their second losses of the season, effectively eliminating them from CFP contention and leaving USC as the conference's only hope.

ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach break it all down with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP matchups, which teams helped and hurt their causes the most, and which matchup they'd most like to see.

All times Eastern.

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia vs. USC

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. TCU

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: Georgia remains the obvious No. 1, with the following teams still in the mix: Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Tennessee, LSU, USC, Clemson and North Carolina. Unless Ohio State or Michigan gets upset in the Big Ten championship game, the Big Ten champ is getting in. TCU looks well on its way, too. The Horned Frogs have Baylor and Iowa State remaining before the Big 12 championship game, and at this point, it seems more likely than not that they'll win out.

The fourth spot, as always, has a lot of possible permutations. Clemson and North Carolina are long shots because of the ACC's lack of overall strength, but a one-loss Power 5 champion will always be considered. It would take a string of upsets to push either into the top four, but it's not impossible.

Oregon's second loss makes it more likely that a second SEC team will get in because now USC is the only viable option from the Pac-12. If USC finishes 12-1 and its only loss is a one-point defeat at Utah, it will be in a strong spot (especially if the Trojans were to beat Utah in the Pac-12 title game). Then there are Tennessee and LSU. If LSU beats Georgia, I have a hard time believing the committee wouldn't include the SEC champion Tigers. And if Georgia wins, Tennessee could be sitting right there as a one-loss SEC team with its only defeat to the Dawgs.

Schlabach: With only two weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture remains as muddled as ever. If defending national champion Georgia wins its last two games against Kentucky on the road and Georgia Tech at home, it should be assured of getting one of the four spots -- even if it loses to LSU in the SEC championship game. The Bulldogs' victories against Oregon and Tennessee should carry a lot of weight with the selection committee.

Barring an upset this week, the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game on Nov. 26 also should clinch a spot. I'm going with the Buckeyes at home for now. TCU moved to 10-0 with a 17-10 victory at Texas. It's time for the committee to give the Horned Frogs some serious love.

After Oregon and UCLA fell this past weekend, I'm picking USC to win the Pac-12 and get the fourth spot. If the Trojans fall, Tennessee would be next in line. Clemson, North Carolina and LSU also remain in the hunt. LSU would probably get a spot if it wins its next two games against UAB and Texas A&M, then upsets No. 1 Georgia in Atlanta.


Team that helped itself the most

Bonagura: TCU. It speaks to brand bias that TCU was a betting underdog against 6-3 Texas despite being 9-0, but with another win for the Frogs, any remaining doubt about them being a viable playoff team should be gone.

Schlabach: There were a lot of questions about whether TCU could go on the road and win a defensive battle at Texas. Well, coach Sonny Dykes' magical ride continued with a 10th straight victory. TCU limited the Longhorns to only 199 yards of offense, including 28 rushing. UT went 1-for-13 on third down and 1-for-4 on fourth. The Horned Frogs play at Baylor on Saturday and host Iowa State in the finale. They might have to beat Kansas State again in the Big 12 title game.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Clemson vs. LSU

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Tennessee

Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. UCF
Schlabach: Alabama vs. UCF

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. USC
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon


Matchup I'd be most excited to see

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl. Michigan was just in the playoff a year ago, but there's something about a potential Michigan-Tennessee game that generates nostalgic feelings about 1990s college football. The teams have played only once before -- the 2002 Citrus Bowl -- and a possible semifinal matchup would mean new (blue) blood in the championship game.

Schlabach: Georgia-USC in the Peach Bowl. Georgia would like nothing more than to play a CFP semifinal close to home, and it will get to play in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl if it finishes 12-0 and defeats LSU in the SEC championship game. USC would give the Peach Bowl its most desirable matchup and would avoid a rematch with Michigan from last season's Orange Bowl or Tennessee from the regular season. The Bulldogs and Trojans haven't played since USC's 10-3 win in 1960. It would be a matchup of USC's high-flying offense vs. Georgia's stout defense.


Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rice vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: SMU vs. UAB

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Cincinnati

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. UNLV
Schlabach: UConn vs. San Diego State

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oregon State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Boise State

LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Troy vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oregon vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Mississippi State


Team that hurt its cause the most

Bonagura: Oregon and UCLA were in similar spots going into the week as one-loss Pac-12 teams that would have been viable CFP candidates if they won out. Both showed they aren't quite good enough, with Oregon losing to Washington and UCLA getting embarrassed by Arizona.

Schlabach: UCLA was in great position to get to the Pac-12 title game. The Bruins' only loss was at Oregon and they host rival USC at the Rose Bowl next week. The Bruins might have gotten caught looking ahead in a 34-28 loss to Arizona at home. UCLA's defense had no answer for quarterback Jayden de Laura, who threw for 315 yards and had three touchdowns (one rushing).


Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Texas vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. UNLV

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee State

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wyoming vs. Ohio
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ball State vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern

Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Troy
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. SMU
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Tulane

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Houston vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tulane vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Duke vs. Appalachian State

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Air Force

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Eastern Michigan

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UAB vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Southern Miss

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington State vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Wyoming

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Memphis vs. South Alabama

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Maryland

Dec. 28

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. Houston

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Michigan State

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: NC State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Washington

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. Baylor

Dec. 29

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Purdue
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Iowa

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Texas

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. Utah
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Utah

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Duke vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Illinois

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Louisville vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Oregon State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Florida State vs. South Carolina

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: San Diego State vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Ball State

Dec. 31

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Kentucky

Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Florida
Schlabach: Purdue vs. Florida

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Ole Miss