Oregon's playoff chances fell flatter than its Hail Mary attempt Saturday night following its 37-34 home loss to Washington, essentially eliminating the two-loss Ducks from the College Football Playoff.
The Pac-12 still has hope, as one-loss USC can still win the conference, but No. 6 Oregon was the selection committee's highest-ranked team from the conference. Now the worst thing that could happen to the Pac-12 would be for two-loss Oregon, Utah or UCLA to win it.
Oregon's loss was Tennessee's gain, as that's one fewer team the Volunteers have to worry about on Selection Day. It also could help one-loss Clemson, which needs a boost anywhere it can get it. Even in mid-November, the playoff field runs deep, with the Big Ten and the SEC still boasting multiple contenders.
LSU and Georgia clinched their respective divisions on Saturday, guaranteeing they will face each other in the SEC championship game and keeping the door open for the first two-loss team in the top four -- a scenario that bleeds into another, with the possibility of three SEC teams in the CFP.
It seems like a stretch, given TCU is still undefeated after its difficult road trip to Texas and the Big Ten champion should be a lock. There are eight teams that still have a realistic chance to reach the CFP -- and that doesn't include two-loss Alabama.
No two-loss team has ever made the CFP. So why not Oregon or Alabama?
Oregon loses the head-to-head against Georgia, and the Ducks' résumé won't stack up against the other contenders, even with a win against a ranked opponent in the Pac-12 title game.
It's one thing for the selection committee to reward a two-loss conference champion like LSU with a top-four spot following wins against Alabama and Georgia; it's an entirely different burden of proof for a two-loss team that didn't win its division. When the selection committee is evaluating teams it deems comparable, there are three tiebreakers that Alabama would fall short of: championships won, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition.
If Alabama runs the table and finishes 10-2 -- which it should, considering its last two opponents are FCS school Austin Peay and Auburn -- the Crimson Tide will have only two wins against CFP top-25 teams (Texas and Ole Miss). Beyond that, none of Alabama's opponents is currently above .500. In addition to having a résumé issue, it loses the head-to-head tiebreaker against both LSU and Tennessee.
Even with Alabama missing, the SEC still has the best chance of any Power 5 conference to get multiple teams into the playoff, but here's how each contender gets there with three weeks to go:
Georgia (10-0)
Saturday's result: Georgia 38, Mississippi State 19
Best win: Nov. 5 -- Georgia 27, Tennessee 13
Toughest game left: Saturday at Kentucky
Path to the playoff: No team in the country appears to be in a better playoff position than Georgia, which clinched the SEC East Division title on Saturday with its win against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs will face two-loss LSU in the SEC championship game, and there's a chance the selection committee rewards Georgia with a top-four finish on Selection Day even if it loses a close game to LSU. In addition to the victory against the Vols, Georgia has a 46-point win against Oregon, which will still resonate despite the Ducks' loss to Washington on Saturday. It's still possible Georgia will have a win over the Pac-12 champs, if Oregon can pull it off. If LSU wins the SEC, though, Georgia shouldn't assume it's still in, because Tennessee would be able to claim a resounding 40-13 victory over the SEC champs. Would the committee reward the team that lost to LSU and eliminate the one that beat the Tigers? This is where the conversation would turn to the possibility of all three SEC teams in the top four. The committee would have to weigh Tennessee's win over the SEC champs with its head-to-head loss to Georgia, in which Tennessee was outplayed more than the final score indicated.
Ohio State (10-0)
Saturday's result: Ohio State 56, Indiana 14
Best win: Oct. 29 -- Ohio State 44, Penn State 31
Toughest game left: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan
Path to the playoff: Ohio State will finish in the top four if it wins the Big Ten, but if the Buckeyes don't beat Michigan in their regular-season finale, it gets dicey. Ohio State would need its wins against Notre Dame and Penn State to compensate for a lack of division and conference titles. In 2016, Ohio State finished in the top four without winning its division, but it had a greater number of impressive wins that season against ranked opponents. It helped Ohio State that the selection committee ranked Notre Dame No. 20 in its second ranking last week, and the Fighting Irish should remain in the CFP top 25 after beating Navy on Saturday and winning their fourth straight game. If Ohio State finishes 11-1 without a Big Ten title, its biggest concern will be a résumé debate against the Big 12 and Pac-12 champions. The selection committee uses conference championships as one of several tiebreakers, along with strength of schedule. Ohio State might come up short in both categories, and it also could have a common opponent (Notre Dame) if USC finishes as the Pac-12 champion. Ohio State could be compared to an 11-1 Tennessee team that didn't win its division, and the Vols' wins against LSU and Alabama could trump Ohio State's best wins.
Michigan (10-0)
J.J. McCarthy finds Ronnie Bell wide open in the end zone to extend Michigan's lead 14-0 over Nebraska.
Saturday's result: Michigan 34, Nebraska 3
Best win: Oct. 15 -- Michigan 41, Penn State 17
Toughest game left: Nov. 26 at Ohio State
Path to the playoff: If Michigan wins the Big Ten, it will finish in the top four, but anything less and the Wolverines will need chaos in the other Power 5 conference championship games. A two-loss Pac-12 and Big 12 champion would help tremendously. Without a nonconference win against a Power 5 opponent, Michigan's strength of schedule will remain an issue in the selection committee meeting room. (Sorry, Michigan fans, but UConn becoming bowl-eligible on Saturday is not going to boost the strength of schedule enough to catapult the Wolverines into the top four if they don't win the Big Ten East.) It didn't help Michigan that Illinois lost its third game of the season to Purdue, as Michigan faces the Illini on Saturday; what once looked like a ranked opponent for the Wolverines is instead another mediocre team from the Big Ten West. Without beating the Buckeyes, Michigan would have a hard time leapfrogging 11-1 Tennessee, undefeated or one-loss Big 12 champion TCU and a one-loss Pac-12 champion USC on Selection Day, because all of those contenders would have a better résumé.
TCU (10-0)
Saturday's result: TCU 17, Texas 10
Best win: Oct. 22 -- TCU 38, Kansas State 28
Toughest game left: Saturday at Baylor
Path to the playoff: If TCU finishes as undefeated Big 12 champion, the Horned Frogs are in. If they finish as one-loss Big 12 champs, they've still got a shot, but it becomes far more questionable. With the SEC and Big Ten champions taking the first two spots, one-loss TCU has to be concerned about two SEC teams getting in, as well as the Pac-12 champion. Even with a conference title, TCU might not win a debate against Tennessee, especially if four-loss Texas doesn't finish in the CFP top 25. TCU has been playing so well this season that many outside the committee meeting room have forgotten the Horned Frogs' nonconference schedule included Colorado (1-9), FCS Tarleton State and SMU (6-4). The win against five-loss Oklahoma is less impressive than it was on Oct. 1. The double-overtime triumph against three-loss Oklahoma State isn't going to wow anyone, either. TCU needs its wins against K-State, Texas and its title game opponent to impress the committee more than what Tennessee and the Pac-12 champion will have done. It will help TCU tremendously if Georgia knocks LSU out of the playoff and the Pac-12 has a two-loss champ. Even a one-loss TCU, though, would trump one-loss ACC champion Clemson.
Tennessee (9-1)
Saturday's result: Tennessee 66, Missouri 24
Best win: Oct. 8 -- Tennessee 40, LSU 13
Toughest game left: Nov. 19 at South Carolina
Path to the playoff: The Vols have to win out -- which they should do, considering unranked South Carolina and Vanderbilt are a combined 10-10 -- but then they need some help. Assuming the SEC and Big Ten champions take the top two spots, Tennessee could get in with TCU or USC -- or it could be looking up at them both. As evidenced by the current CFP ranking, No. 5 Tennessee isn't going to leapfrog an undefeated No. 4 TCU that wins its league, so the Vols' chances would increase if the Frogs lose. If the top four includes Georgia, the Big Ten champion and undefeated TCU, Tennessee needs to win a debate against USC. There wouldn't be much of a discussion if two-loss Utah, UCLA or Oregon wins the league, as the Pac-12 would be out. If one-loss USC wins the Pac-12, though, Tennessee could be in trouble. USC would have defeated three straight ranked opponents -- UCLA, Notre Dame and the Pac-12 title game opponent -- and it would have a conference title as a tiebreaker. The committee would have to decide if all of that trumps Tennessee's wins against Alabama and LSU.
LSU (8-2)
Saturday's result: LSU 13, Arkansas 10
Best win: Nov. 5 -- LSU 32, Alabama 31 (OT)
Toughest game left: Nov. 26 at Texas A&M
Path to the playoff: Win out and win the SEC. It's the only way. LSU got one step closer Saturday night when it clinched the SEC West following Alabama's win over Ole Miss. If LSU beats Georgia to win the conference, it would have defeated three CFP top-25 teams (Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss), which would help compensate for losses to Florida State and Tennessee. The Tigers' résumé plus a conference title would help the committee justify the first two-loss team in the top four. It also would help LSU if Florida State can remain a CFP top-25 team to help soften the blow of the one-point loss to the Seminoles. If LSU loses at Texas A&M but still wins the SEC, it would almost certainly make history for all of the wrong reasons, becoming the first SEC champion to be excluded from the CFP because of its three losses.
USC (9-1)
TCU scores the first touchdown of the game after Kendre Miller's 75-yard run to the end zone.
Friday's result: USC 55, Colorado 17
Best win: Sept. 24 -- USC 17, Oregon State 14
Toughest game left: Nov. 19 at UCLA
Path to the playoff: The Trojans have to run the table and win the Pac-12, but they also need some help. Their best win is against an unranked Oregon State team, and they need to overcome a nonconference schedule that included Rice and Fresno State. USC can end the season with wins against ranked opponents UCLA and Notre Dame, and the Trojans would add another top-25 win in the Pac-12 title game. USC needs Georgia to eliminate LSU but still has to worry about Georgia and Tennessee finishing in the top four together. Two SEC teams plus the Big Ten champion would create a debate between the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC champs. USC's résumé would trump Clemson's -- and the No. 8 Trojans are already ranked ahead of the No. 10 Tigers. The bigger concern is an undefeated TCU. With the SEC and Big Ten champions joining undefeated TCU, USC would need its conference title to carry more weight than Tennessee's wins against LSU and Alabama.
Clemson (9-1)
Saturday's result: Clemson 31, Louisville 16
Best win: Oct. 1 -- Clemson 30, NC State 20
Toughest game left: Nov. 26 vs. South Carolina
Path to the playoff: Clemson already clinched the ACC's Atlantic Division, and it will at least be considered for the CFP if it finishes as a one-loss conference champion with a win against a ranked North Carolina team. The Tigers cannot, though, lose to rival South Carolina in the regular-season finale. Clemson is hanging on by a thread after getting beaten soundly at Notre Dame a week ago, and its wins against Syracuse and Wake Forest no longer look as impressive after those opponents dropped out of the CFP top 25 last week. Clemson's victory against NC State also took a hit on Saturday after the Wolfpack lost at home to Boston College, so it's possible three-loss NC State drops out of the CFP top 25 this week. If that happens, Clemson's only wins against ranked opponents would be versus No. 23 Florida State (if the three-loss Noles finish in the CFP top 25) and possibly North Carolina in the ACC title game. Clemson will have finished the regular season with three straight home games against unranked opponents, while TCU ends with the most difficult slate in the country (at Texas, at Baylor, home against Iowa State). Oregon also will have had more opportunities to impress the selection committee. In addition to Clemson's weak résumé, the Tigers haven't looked like a top-four team this fall. They've had nine turnovers in the past three games.