By this point in the 2022 college football season, most teams can't change what they see in the mirror.
A fortunate few are still playing for CFP spots, while others remain in contention for league championships and solid bowl appearances. There's also a group searching for answers after failing on the field for most or all of the fall.
I've identified five such teams -- one from each power conference -- that need to be repaired for the 2023 season and what their five-step plans should be. Consider this a five-for-five exercise.
Who are the teams? Texas A&M is an easy choice after flopping badly in Year 5 under Jimbo Fisher. Northwestern and Stanford have plenty of similarities in their respective free falls. At 2-7, Virginia Tech is headed toward its worst season since 1992 (2-8-1), while West Virginia (3-6) could post its worst mark since 2001.
I've heard the cries for help. Here are solutions to get better next season and beyond.
Jump to schools:
Texas A&M | Stanford | Virginia Tech
Northwestern | West Virginia
Texas A&M
Current record: 3-6 | Record since 2019: 28-16
What's gone wrong: Texas A&M entered the season ranked No. 6 in the AP poll and had signed the nation's No. 1 recruiting class. It seemed poised to contend in the SEC after going 8-4 in 2021. But the problems began almost immediately, especially on offense, as the Aggies fell 17-14 to Appalachian State at Kyle Field in Week 2. After the defense grinded out wins against Miami and Arkansas, the Aggies had a chance to go on a run. Instead, they've dropped four straight and the defense has really struggled, allowing a combined 1,022 yards in losses to Ole Miss and Florida. There have been suspensions and other personnel challenges. Texas A&M's brightest moment came against Alabama, but unlike last season it fell short of an upset. The Aggies must beat Auburn (road), UMass (home) and LSU (home) just to get bowl eligible in Fisher's fifth season. The team's struggles are starting to impact recruiting. Many in Aggieland regret Fisher's contract -- after an extension his buyout will remain above $50 million until 2027 -- and few realistic scenarios exist that don't include him returning in 2023 for Year 6.
Five steps to fix the Aggies
1. Overhaul the offensive philosophy: Fisher must accept that his approach is broken right now. The images of Fisher holding a pile of playsheets on the sideline epitomizes the messiness and complexities plaguing a unit ranked 102nd nationally in scoring, 69th in yards per play and 93rd in yards per pass attempt. The impact offenses in the sport this season -- Tennessee, TCU, Kansas, North Carolina -- don't resemble what Texas A&M is attempting to do. If Fisher wants to hang on at A&M, he can't continue to use this complicated scheme with an era of high school quarterbacks who come up running less complicated offenses.
2. Hire a dynamic playcaller and get out of the way: There's no doubt Texas A&M has the financial clout and motivation to hire an ascending offensive playcaller this winter. Potential targets include TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo and Incarnate Word coach G.J. Kinne. But Fisher would need to set aside his pride and give his OC autonomy, especially if things are rocky at first. Working under Fisher could mean up-and-coming assistants have a good reason to leave where they are beyond the money A&M can offer.
3. Examine the overall offensive staff: The changes on offense likely don't end with a new playcaller. Fisher must allow a new coordinator to make some of his own hires. The Aggies offensive staff is a bit of a hodgepodge and includes quarterbacks coach Dameyune Craig and two men who have coordinator titles in Darrell Dickey and James Coley. Because of the unit's overall struggles, Fisher must put loyalties aside and allow changes that create a true philosophical alignment.
4. Create a stronger program culture: Despite being the most overused word in college football, culture matters, even at programs with access to elite talent. Georgia and Alabama recruit exceptionally well but also have strong cultures. Fisher is undeniably among the nation's best recruiters, which he proved both at Texas A&M and Florida State. But his teams at FSU had off the field issues, especially at the end, and they appear to be surfacing again. Some coaches who know Fisher see him as a talent collector rather than a program builder. Player evaluation goes beyond raw ability, and Fisher needs to look closer at who he's bringing into the locker room and how the pieces fit together.
5. Make smart choices in the portal, including at QB: Texas A&M ranks 82nd nationally in adjusted QBR this season. Despite recent improvement, the Aggies have only one 300-yard passing performance against an FBS opponent (freshman Conner Weigman against Ole Miss). Weigman, ESPN's No. 27 overall recruit in the 2022 class, might be Texas A&M's long-term answer. But Fisher's track record at quarterback since Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston at Florida State isn't good. Texas A&M should be active in the transfer portal for a quarterback who fits whatever the new philosophy will be. The Aggies also need additional playmakers, as do-it-all running back Devon Achane is eligible to enter the NFL draft. The young talent base on defense is great, but Texas A&M also could use a difference-maker or two in the front seven.
Stanford
Current record: 3-6 | Record since 2019: 14-25
What's gone wrong: After three Pac-12 titles and eight seasons of eight or more wins under coach David Shaw, Stanford has fallen off sharply. The Cardinal went 3-9 last season, their worst record since 1-11 in 2006, and things haven't gotten better this fall. A defense that finished 114th nationally last season has allowed 38 points or more in five of the team's six conference losses. Stanford's line-of-scrimmage edge, a hallmark for Shaw's teams and Jim Harbaugh's before him, has vanished. Opponents are averaging more than 2 yards per rush better than the Cardinal (5.8 vs. 3.6). The team had an encouraging stretch last month, losing to Oregon State in heartbreaking fashion before stunning Notre Dame on the road and edging Arizona State, but blowout losses to UCLA (38-13) and Washington State (52-14) confirm that things are not right on the Farm. Shaw is still likely to return in 2023, but if things continue spiraling, Stanford could have a decision on its hands.
Five steps to fix the Cardinal
1. Shake up the staff: Shaw has been very loyal to his assistants over the years, and Stanford isn't the type of program where there's constant pressure to shake things up. But after the past two seasons, Shaw must look at adding new voices from the outside. Defensive coordinator Lance Anderson is in his 16th year on staff. Offensive coordinator Tavita Prichard played at Stanford and has spent his entire career at his alma mater. Special teams coordinator Pete Alamar has been at Stanford for a decade. Perhaps not all need to go, but Stanford needs some fresh perspectives on how to turn things around.
2. Reestablish the line of scrimmage: Stanford's best teams under Harbaugh and Shaw bullied their opponents up front. From 2010 to 2018, Stanford had 20 linemen (offensive or defensive) and tight ends selected in the NFL draft. But the defensive line hasn't really been the same since the draft departures of Solomon Thomas and Harrison Phillips, as Stanford ranks 121st nationally in run defense since 2019. The offensive line has struggled since assistant Mike Bloomgren left to become Rice's head coach in December 2017. Stanford ranks 126th nationally in rushing offense since 2018, a shocking number given Shaw's track record. Something needs to shift up front, whether it's coaching or overall philosophy.
3. A bit of real pressure on Shaw: There are no forever jobs in college coaching, not with the money involved and the demands to win. Stanford isn't a pressure cooker, and images of empty seats at Cardinal home games -- even during good seasons -- raise questions about how many people truly care. But Shaw is one of the nation's highest-paid coaches, and his longevity and loyalty only goes so far when the product isn't consistently competitive. Every program needs standards, and Stanford must reinforce what Shaw needs to do to continue. He led the program to incredible success from 2011 to 2016 -- three league titles, five AP top-12 finishes -- but Stanford needs a reset. After the Washington State loss, Shaw said, "We'll look at what we're doing, how we're doing it. I'm ultimately accountable for everything."
4. Adapt to the portal and other realities: In 2014, Shaw voiced his opposition to an early signing date in recruiting, noting that most recruits wouldn't be admitted to Stanford in time to sign. But Stanford adapted and continued to recruit well, which makes the on-field problems even more frustrating. Stanford's 2022 recruiting class ranked No. 12 nationally on signing day, according to ESPN. The team signed ESPN Top 25 classes in 2020 and 2019 as well. Stanford isn't nearly as active in the transfer portal as other Pac-12 programs and likely will always suffer a bit there because of its difficulty to admit transfers. The portal likely will be a net negative for Stanford, but administrative adjustments can be made to better position the program.
5. Examine new playcalling approaches: This is related to the first item, but also includes Shaw, the team's longtime offensive playcaller. Throughout his tenure, Shaw has defended his playcalling, often labeled overly conservative. The approach worked for many years, but Stanford's current issues stem from their inability to consistently run the ball. After recording 390 rush yards and six touchdowns in the first two games this season, Stanford has just 914 rush yards and four touchdowns. There just isn't a clearly defined identity. Shaw has to open himself up to other perspectives and perhaps a new approach because the current one isn't working.
Virginia Tech
Current record: 2-7 | Record since 2019: 21-25
What's gone wrong: First-year coach Brent Pry walked into a challenging situation in Blacksburg. Recruiting had declined during the latter part of predecessor Justin Fuente's tenure, and there was talk around the program from spring practice onward that the overall talent level had dropped off. Those concerns have come true this fall, as Virginia Tech has only one win against an FBS opponent, and hasn't scored 30 points in any game. The Hokies rank 112th nationally in scoring and 118th in yards per play. The defense has looked improved at times but endured a tough midseason stretch. Virginia Tech has competed better lately but Saturday dropped its third straight game by six points or less, extending its overall losing streak to six. The team hasn't won fewer than five games since 1992.
Five steps to fix the Hokies
1. Re-establish local recruiting roots: Virginia Tech's rise under Frank Beamer came because of its success with in-state and regional recruits. The Hokies targeted and dominated areas like the Tidewater region, which includes Norfolk, Newport News, Chesapeake and Virginia Beach. But from 2019 to 2022, Virginia Tech landed only two ESPN 300 recruits from the state. Virginia Tech's highest-ranked in-state commitment for 2023, three-star cornerback Cameren Fleming, is No. 12 in ESPN's rankings for Virginia. No one expects Beamer-era recruiting dominance right away, but Virginia Tech must start building its roster from the region.
2. Become a defense-driven program again: Pry cut his teeth as a young assistant under longtime Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster in the mid-1990s. He knows what great defense looks like in Blacksburg, and brings strong playcalling credentials from Vanderbilt and Penn State. His first Hokies team has been inconsistent in defending the run, holding Boston College to 4 net yards -- Virginia Tech's lowest total allowed since 2012 -- and four other teams to less than 110 yards. But Virginia Tech also allowed Pitt's Israel Abanikanda to set records (320 rush yards, six touchdowns), and has slipped to 51st nationally in rushing defense. Pry is still calling plays but might want to lean more on his young coordinator, Chris Marve.
3. Create stability at quarterback: After some early success, Fuente couldn't get the quarterback position right, a frustration given his QB track record at earlier stops (Andy Dalton at TCU, Paxton Lynch at Memphis). The rise of former Virginia Tech starter Hendon Hooker at Tennessee must be especially frustrating for Hokies' fans. Marshall transfer Grant Wells has provided some flashes but not enough consistent success. Virginia Tech could go back into the portal this winter, although Wells has another year of eligibility and the team has a commitment from ESPN three-star recruit Dylan Wittke. But quarterback has to be a focal point for Pry, offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen and the staff this offseason.
4. Find playmakers in the portal: Virginia Tech will need to be active in the portal this offseason, and offensive playmakers are the priority. Running back Keshawn King and wide receiver Kaleb Smith have been the team's only consistent offensive threats, and Smith will be gone after the season. The Hokies need more field-stretching threats at both wide receiver and tight end. King is the only ball-carrier averaging more than 4 yards a carry, so help is needed there and the portal should produce some options. Pry also needs more difference-makers on defense, especially in the secondary, as the Hokies have only three interceptions all season.
5. Figure out the fourth quarter: Pry's tenure began on an ominous note, as Virginia Tech was outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter during a 20-17 loss at Old Dominion. The Hokies have struggled in the fourth quarter all season, scoring only 30 total points while allowing 60. They have been outscored 12-0 in the fourth quarter in each of the last two games, one-point losses to NC State and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech isn't the deepest or most talented team, but must figure out ways to finish games better in 2023.
Northwestern
Current record: 1-8 | Record since 2019: 14-28
What's gone wrong: In 2020, Northwestern reached its second Big Ten title game in three seasons, and finished No. 10 nationally. Since then, the program has cratered. Last fall, Northwestern had its least competitive team under coach Pat Fitzgerald, finishing 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten). Northwestern opened this season with a come-from-behind win against Nebraska in Dublin, Ireland, but hasn't won since on U.S. soil. The Wildcats have dropped 14 of their past 15 games, and could be headed for their worst record since going winless in 1989. They are 126th nationally in scoring offense and 112th in rushing defense. Fitzgerald was the biggest star on Northwestern's breakthrough Rose Bowl team in 1995, and has become the school's all-time winningest coach. But he's now in his 17th year, overseeing the program's worst stretch since the early 1990s.
"This isn't my first tough season," Fitzgerald said Monday. "You don't do anything rash or quick. You take your time to evaluate everything and see where things are at. Ultimately, that's my responsibility. When our record is what it is, it's my responsibility to get it fixed."
Five steps to fix the Wildcats
1. A reboot on defense: Northwestern's most successful stretch under Fitzgerald -- the team made 10 bowl appearances and had five AP Top 25 finishes between 2008 and 2020 -- coincided with Mike Hankwitz's tenure as defensive coordinator. Hankwitz retired after the 2021 Citrus Bowl, and Fitzgerald replaced him with a surprising choice -- Jim O'Neil, an NFL journeyman whose defenses had struggled in Cleveland and San Francisco. From the first play of the 2021 season -- a 75-yard Michigan State touchdown run -- Northwestern's defense hasn't been the same. The unit has been plagued by breakdowns, ranking 119th nationally in yards per rush during O'Neil's tenure. Fitzgerald is close with O'Neil but must get the defense back to where it was under Hankwitz, a unit Big Ten teams didn't want to face. Northwestern simply isn't built to win with subpar defense.
2. Further staff evaluation: Fitzgerald believes in staff continuity and has made minimal changes over his tenure. But the struggles of the past two seasons -- and three of the past four -- require everything to be evaluated. Offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian hasn't provided the spark Northwestern needed after the drawn-out tenure of Mick McCall. Since Bajakian arrived in 2020, Northwestern is 125th nationally in scoring, and no Power 5 team has been worse the past two seasons. The team's lack of development at wide receiver merits closer examination, and areas such as defensive line and special teams have fallen off, too. Coaching continuity is great until it becomes stale, and Northwestern likely needs a true staff shakeup.
3. A better plan at quarterback: Fitzgerald's best teams won with defense and discipline, but they also had a good run of quarterbacks during his first decade as coach. Clayton Thorson led the offense from 2015 to 2018, starting 53 straight games (a Big Ten quarterback record) and passing for 10,731 yards, but Northwestern didn't plan well for what happened after he departed. The team missed badly on several quarterback recruits, and transfers Hunter Johnson (Clemson) and Ryan Hilinski (South Carolina) didn't pan out. Although Northwestern reached the 2020 Big Ten title game behind another transfer QB in Peyton Ramsey (Indiana), the team ultimately needs to start recruiting and developing better. Current starter Brendan Sullivan has shown some promise, but Northwestern needs other options to emerge.
4. Reassessing recruiting and the portal: Northwestern will never win signing day, but for years the team identified good developmental prospects and generally did more with less. The program now has more resources than ever -- a top-of-the-line operations center and a new stadium on the way -- but its hit rate on players seems to be worsening, especially at positions like linebacker, wide receiver and defensive tackle. Fitzgerald needs to analyze the recruiting operation and also Northwestern's approach to the portal. Northwestern has similar admissions/administrative hurdles with the portal as Stanford, but also must push for greater freedom to add true difference-makers at positions other than quarterback.
5. Greater urgency for Fitzgerald: The similarities between Fitzgerald and Stanford's Shaw are striking. Both are alums who have turned down NFL overtures, received excellent contracts and carry almost untouchable status on their respective campuses, where the day-to-day pressure pales in comparison to most Power 5 schools. But like Stanford, Northwestern shouldn't tolerate the recent results without some pushback on the head coach. The idea of Fitzgerald running it back in 2023 without significant changes should not be tolerated. Northwestern is planning an $800 million stadium project, and it's hard to raise money with a bad, boring product on the field. Those familiar with the situation note Fitzgerald's loyalty but also his stubbornness. "He will need to be pushed," a source said. "They can't cave to him."
West Virginia
Current record: 3-6 | Record since 2019: 20-24
What's gone wrong: After entering the AP top 10 and finishing in the top 20 in 2016 and 2018 under Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia seemed positioned to compete in the Big 12 despite being a geographic outlier. Even after Holgorsen left for a Group of 5 job at Houston, Neal Brown seemed like a smart and sensible replacement. He connected well with those around the program and brought a good track record with offense and player development. But West Virginia has never truly put it all together during Brown's tenure. The team ranked 101st nationally in scoring offense (24 ppg) during Brown's first three seasons, but typically had solid defenses. This fall, WVU is scoring more than 32 points per game, but has slipped to 120th nationally in points allowed. Big 12 play has been especially difficult, as WVU sits in last place and will post its third losing league record in four seasons.
A disclaimer here: Brown's job status is very tenuous, entering the final three games, although he's owed $20 million if fired this year. In the interest of fairness, WVU's fix-it plan is under the assumption that Brown returns in 2023, but also can apply to a new coach.
Five steps to fix the Mountaineers
1. Creating defensive depth: In 2020 and 2021, WVU's defense was the team's strength, ranking 25th nationally in points allowed and 23rd in yards per play allowed over the span. WVU seemingly had adjusted to a Big 12 leaning more toward defense. So why the regression this season? Attrition has hurt the unit lately, as several starters transferred this offseason. "Some things haven't worked out the way that we thought they would, we haven't had all the pieces that we thought we would," defensive coordinator Jordan Lesley said last month. The unit lacks star power, and WVU must find some, either through better transfer portal selections or with player development.
2. Reclaim big plays on offense: After the 2021 season, Brown gave up offensive playcalling and brought in Graham Harrell from USC to take over. Harrell's offense has been more productive than WVU's previous versions, but the big plays simply haven't come often enough. The Mountaineers rank 104th nationally in yards per attempt (6.57) and 107th in percentage of completions at 10 yards or longer (40.7). Quarterback J.T. Daniels is completing only 61.3% of his passes. Daniels will depart after the season, but WVU needs to figure out how to incorporate more downfield passing. WVU has two quarterbacks from the state of Arizona, Will Crowder and ESPN 300 prospect Nicco Marchiol, ready to compete in 2023.
3. Continue to grow NIL platform: Like most teams, WVU needs to make the transfer portal a net positive, which it wasn't during the most recent offseason. That's where name, image and likeness becomes so important. The continued growth of Country Roads Trust, West Virginia's NIL collective, will help keep players in Morgantown and attract potential impact transfers to the program. Former West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck co-founded the collective, and its advisory team includes Jerry West, Pat McAfee and other notables. Those familiar with WVU said the NIL structure there is strong, but how much true financial clout the collective has, at least compared with others, remains to be seen. But NIL can become a strength for WVU and help some of its roster challenges. Since West Virginia updated its football facility in 2021, the school can focus more in enhancing its NIL program.
4. Find a niche in scheme and recruiting: WVU's best teams have embraced distinct elements, both in scheme and recruiting. "We couldn't operate like everybody else," a former staff member said. Former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez was among the originators of the spread offense that incorporated zone-read concepts for running quarterbacks. Rodriguez and his staff also thrived by recruiting Florida and other pockets of the South. Holgorsen brought the Air Raid to Morgantown, and WVU used the 3-3-5 defense. Holgorsen was actually ahead of the curve on transfers in the pre-portal days, adding impact players from junior college - Rasul Douglas, Skyler Howard and the White brothers (Kevin, Kyzir, Ka'Raun) - and other FBS schools (quarterbacks Will Grier). Brown has done well in the state and neighboring Pennsylvania, although the large 2022 recruiting class had a national flavor. WVU must continue to refine its strategy, both with high school recruits and transfers, as the Big 12 membership changes in the coming seasons.
5. Develop and retain top DBs: Not long ago, West Virginia was regularly producing top defensive backs. From 2016 and 2018, WVU had five defensive backs selected in the NFL draft, including first-round pick Karl Joseph. Tony Gibson, a West Virginia native who had two extended stints on the Mountaineers' coaching staff, elevated the talent level and play during his five seasons as defensive coordinator under Holgorsen. WVU prioritized speed in its 3-3-5 defense and found the right players. The team has had only one defensive back drafted during the Brown era -- Kenny Robinson in 2020 -- and has lost notable players to the portal, including Tykee Smith and Dreshun Miller last year. WVU has good draft history at other positions, including running back, but restoring the secondary should be a priority.