A relatively calm stretch of the coaching carousel was interrupted Monday with a surprise announcement of an unsurprising decision at Auburn.
Bryan Harsin's fate as Auburn coach had been sealed weeks ago, likely after the Tigers blew a 17-0 lead against LSU and lost 21-17 at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Some would argue Harsin entered the season with no chance to return, even after surviving a university inquiry back in February.
He's gone officially now. Two days after the team's fourth straight loss -- and with new athletic director John Cohen about to be officially hired -- Auburn fired Harsin, not even mentioning his name in announcing the change. Auburn had seemed content to let Harsin dangle for a few more weeks, but university president Chris Roberts decided Monday it was time.
Auburn becomes the sixth Power 5 job to open this year. Cohen is an interesting choice to lead the department and the upcoming football search. He's the former baseball coach at Mississippi State, who has spent his entire administrative career with the school. He hired Mike Leach as the Bulldogs' football coach and is now in the market again.
Both Auburn and Georgia Tech needed ADs in place before truly diving into their coaching searches. The clock is now ticking on both with key decisions coming in the next six weeks.
With the Auburn vacancy, we now need to rerank the open Power 5 jobs below. We'll also put a percentage chance on each of the interim coaches getting hired full-time, plus all the latest coaching buzz.
More coaching carousel coverage:
Jump to ranking the open jobs
Jump to rating the interim coaches
The latest buzz: Everything I'm hearing (updated Nov. 2)
Week 9 saw more coaches move away from the hot seat than toward it, both at the Power 5 and Group of 5 levels. Still, there are several intriguing situations to watch.
Neal Brown, West Virginia: Brown's situation likely will come down to his lucrative remaining contract versus the pressure for change amid a tough season. WVU's defense doesn't appear to be fixable, as the Mountaineers allowed 41 points and 495 yards to TCU. Although there's no shame in losing to the Horned Frogs, WVU just can't seem to put complete performances together. At 3-5, a path toward bowl eligibility is hard to find, although Brown may need only another win or two to secure his position. This week, WVU visits an Iowa State team that is winless in Big 12 play. A loss in Ames would increase the drumbeat for change.
Jeff Scott, South Florida: Despite Scott's 4-25 record, USF would like to find a way to retain him, especially after awarding him a contract extension in January. Could player development amid a wave of injuries be his ticket to 2023? After losing starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon to a season-ending injury last week, the Bulls showed a spark offensively for two and a half quarters at Houston. Brian Battie averaged 8.8 yards per carry and Katravis Marsh made some good throws. The Bulls face two other AAC bottom-feeders in two of the next three games, beginning this week at Temple.
Ryan Silverfield, Memphis: After three straight losses, Memphis and Silverfield face a huge opportunity this week against UCF, which just took down Cincinnati. A win against the Knights would settle things down nicely before two very winnable games against Tulsa and South Alabama. But if Memphis loses, especially by a wide margin, Silverfield will really need a lift down the stretch. Memphis aspires to be an annual contender in the reconfigured AAC. This is a measuring-stick game for the program and its embattled coach.
Other situations to watch: Two Power 5 coaches continued to cool down the heat as Louisville's Scott Satterfield and Missouri's Eliah Drinkwitz notched significant conference wins. Satterfield's tenure looked dire after an Oct. 1 road loss to Boston College, but Louisville has looked like a different team since, especially on defense. The Cardinals outscored then-No. 10 Wake Forest 35-7 in the second half, and have won three straight. Drinkwitz is winning primarily because of an improved defense, which held No. 25 South Carolina to 10 points, 14 first downs and 203 yards. Both coaches look secure for 2023, although each has some key games this month. ... Several Group of 5 coaches notched significant wins to help their situations. North Texas' Seth Littrell, whose strong finish in 2021 likely saved his job, has won three of the past four games, including a 40-13 road thumping of Western Kentucky. The Mean Green face three .500 teams to close the regular season and should easily get bowl eligible. Florida Atlantic's Willie Taggart might be on shakier ground than Littrell, but the Owls beat UAB to move to 4-5. FAU visits Florida International and Middle Tennessee, two potential wins that would secure bowl eligibility. Navy's Ken Niumatalolo secured a win he desperately needed over Temple, but the Mids' November schedule is daunting with Cincinnati, Notre Dame and UCF before the Army game on Dec. 10. ... Tulsa coach Philip Montgomery likely needs a November surge to ensure he will return for a ninth season in 2023. The Golden Hurricane have dropped four of five, and the school could look to capitalize on a strong potential candidate pool that includes former Virginia Tech and Memphis coach Justin Fuente, a Tulsa native. ... Texas State's Jake Spavital still has a path to bowl eligibility -- and likely another year in San Marcos -- but needs to beat 2-6 Louisiana-Monroe this week. The Bobcats finish with Arkansas State and Louisiana, both at home, but need to recapture an offensive spark following the open week after scoring only 14 points in each of their last two games. ... Rice's Mike Bloomgren is 4-4 but has endured some tough losses lately to Florida Atlantic and then to 1-7 Charlotte on Saturday. A tricky closing stretch that includes UTSA and North Texas makes his situation worth monitoring.
Rating the interim coaches
My friend and ESPN colleague Matt Schick put it best about interim coaches during our radio conversation Saturday: They're the only golfers on the course. Although some interims are more placeholders than legitimate candidates, they all have the advantage of weekly auditions for their potential future bosses.
Here's a look at the seven interim coaches around college football, how they're faring and what chances they have for the permanent gig. I also offer a prediction on what happens with the job.
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin
Record as interim: 2-1 |Team's record: 4-4
Previous role: Defensive coordinator
Wisconsin was off this past weekend, but Leonhard made some news during a recent interview with Schick on Sirius XM. He discussed the urgency for Wisconsin to make a decision on the permanent role, especially with the upcoming recruiting/transfer cycle. He also spoke boldly about a need to evolve the program while maintaining its tradition. Leonhard talked about style of play and how Wisconsin had produced cleaner performances in recent weeks.
An Oct. 22 win over Purdue was significant. A win this week against Maryland would help even more. Wisconsin has rivalry games left with both Iowa and Minnesota. If Leonhard goes 4-0 or 3-1 the rest of the way, he likely lands the permanent gig. A 2-2 mark would make things interesting, especially with other viable candidates available. Athletic director Chris McIntosh was right when he said he owes it to Wisconsin to conduct a full search. Despite being fairly new to coaching, Leonhard has all the ingredients Wisconsin needs. He also has turned down better assistant jobs because he has always targeted the chance to lead Wisconsin. A solid finish should put him in great shape to land the job, but there are strong external candidates, too, including several sitting Power 5 coaches.
Chance of promotion: 70%
Brent Key, Georgia Tech
Record as interim: 2-2 | Team's record: 3-5
Previous role: Offensive line coach/assistant head coach/run game coordinator
The combination of changes at both the coach and athletic director position make Georgia Tech's situations a bit more complex to predict. New AD J Batt is in place -- after serving in the No. 2 role for the Alabama athletic department -- and he will have about a month to fully evaluate Key, who has done good work so far. Key's wins against defending ACC champion Pitt and a solid Duke team certainly strengthen his case, although Georgia Tech missed an opportunity Oct. 20 when it fell to Virginia at home. "A massive setback," an industry source said. Georgia Tech lost 41-16 at Florida State this past Saturday.
Industry sources said last week that Key is a viable option for Batt, who also saw Key's work at Alabama. New athletic directors usually are motivated to survey the market and make their own hires. Georgia Tech's path to bowl eligibility will be very tough, especially because it finishes the season with two ranked opponents (North Carolina and Georgia). Could a five-win season be enough for Key? The Yellow Jackets face Virginia Tech (road) and Miami (home) the next two weeks.
Chance of promotion: 35%
Mickey Joseph, Nebraska
Record as interim: 2-3 | Team's record: 3-5
Previous role: Wide receivers coach/passing game coordinator/associate head coach
The Illinois game could have been the tipping point for Joseph, who has brought a spark and stability to the program since landing the interim role. If Nebraska had taken down a top-20 Fighting Illini team, Joseph would enter November with a very real chance to be the permanent choice for his alma mater. He still might get there, as the schedule offers up opportunities with Minnesota (home), Michigan (road), Wisconsin (home) and Iowa (road). But a 26-9 loss to Illinois certainly stings.
Athletic director Trev Alberts obviously wants wins, but he has talked repeatedly about reclaiming Nebraska's line-of-scrimmage grit and other stylistic elements. Joseph understands Alberts' vision. The fan base likes him. He also knows the recruiting game well, especially after coaching at several schools in the South, including LSU. When you step back, though, Joseph really wasn't on any candidate lists for Power 5 jobs before getting the interim role. Nebraska has a very strong external candidate pool. How can Alberts not look at the neighboring state of Kansas, given what the Wildcats' Chris Klieman and Jayhawks' Lance Leipold have accomplished? But the November schedule gives Joseph a chance to sway Alberts.
Chance of promotion: 25%
Shaun Aguano, Arizona State
Record as interim: 2-3 | Team's record: 3-5
Previous role: Running backs coach
Aguano has handled a difficult situation well after being named interim coach in Week 4. Arizona State faced three consecutive ranked opponents, and upset Washington despite losing starting quarterback Emory Jones to injury. The team has played much better under Aguano's watch, and could easily have three consecutive wins after not allowing a touchdown to Stanford but falling 15-14 on Oct. 22. He also has taken over offensive playcalling and generated success with Trenton Bourguet.
A longtime high school coach in Chandler, Arizona, Aguano connects well with ASU fans and knows the region extremely well. But the permanent role would represent a massive jump for a coach who was leading Chandler High School and had no college experience in 2018. The buzz around ASU last week centered on embattled athletic director Ray Anderson, who received another vote of confidence from university president Michael Crow. But how much influence Anderson has in the hire remains to be seen. Aguano can help his cause as ASU plays its final two home games against ranked opponents (UCLA and Oregon State). But the external candidate pool, which likely features former Power 5 coaches (Bronco Mendenhall, Tom Herman) and hot coordinators such as Oregon offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham, will be tough for Aguano to beat out.
Chance of promotion: 25%
Mike Sanford, Colorado
Record as interim: 1-2 | Team's record: 1-7
Previous role: Offensive coordinator
The Buffs have undoubtedly played better since Sanford took over for Karl Dorrell. They beat Cal and pushed Arizona State on Saturday before ultimately falling 42-34. Unlike the other interim coaches listed, Sanford has led an FBS program before, although things didn't go well during a short stint at Western Kentucky (9-16). The son of a longtime college coach, Sanford has been around the game his entire life. He grew up mostly in the Pacific and Mountain time zones, where his dad worked, and he played and coached at Boise State.
One of the main obstacles for Sanford is Colorado's November schedule. The Buffs face four of the Pac-12's best teams in Oregon (home), USC (road), Washington (road) and Utah (home). CU will be substantial underdogs in all four. Athletic director Rick George is under pressure to make a bold hire after the Dorrell move went poorly -- as many predicted. Colorado is one of the tougher Power 5 jobs but boasts a solid candidate pool, from one of the nation's hottest coordinators in Illinois' Ryan Walters (a CU alum) to a proven veteran such as Mendenhall, the former Virginia and BYU coach.
Chance of promotion: 5%
Carnell Williams, Auburn
Record as interim: 0-0 | Team's record: 3-5
Previous role: Running backs coach
The former Auburn All-America running back made sense as the choice to lead the team for the final month. Williams, who played seven NFL seasons, entered coaching in 2016 and has done a nice job at his alma mater the past four years. He's a good candidate to remain on the staff, but the lateness of the change and other dynamics in place (including a new AD) make a permanent promotion highly unlikely. Williams could make the administration think twice if Auburn somehow runs the table and stuns Alabama in the Iron Bowl. But the external candidate pool is likely too strong in this case.
Chance of promotion: 5%
Bryant Vincent, UAB
Record as interim: 4-4 | Team's record: 4-4
Previous role: Offensive coordinator
Vincent was Bill Clark's choice to lead UAB after Clark stepped down in June because of medical reasons. Will he be athletic director Mark Ingram's choice to guide the program in 2023 and beyond? UAB has been competitive in every game, as all four of its losses have come by seven points or fewer. But Saturday's loss to Florida Atlantic really hurts Vincent's case, and UAB is just 2-3 in Conference USA play. The program will move to the AAC in 2023. A tough upcoming schedule -- UTSA (home), North Texas (home) and LSU (road) -- should give Ingram all he needs to evaluate Vincent. Right now, an outside hire looks like the move.
Chance of promotion: 5%
Pete Rossomando, Charlotte
Record as interim: 1-0 | Team's record: 2-7
Previous role: Offensive line coach
Rossomando's debut as Charlotte interim coach couldn't have gone much better, as the 49ers ended a four-game losing streak by getting five touchdown passes from quarterback Chris Reynolds in a 56-23 win over Rice. Three winnable games remain -- Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech -- and Rossomando could end up giving athletic director Mike Hill something to think about. Rossomando has head-coaching experience from Division II (New Haven) and the FCS (Central Connecticut). But Charlotte should attract a strong external pool of candidates, especially with its upcoming move to the AAC.
Chance of promotion: 10%
Ranking the open FBS jobs
While the 2021 coaching carousel came to be defined by high-profile movement and overall volume, this year's cycle likely will be remembered for its active start as five Power 5 jobs were open within days of the calendar flipping to October.
Each vacancy presents exciting opportunities for candidates, but also clear challenges. There are no USC-LSU-Notre Dame-type jobs open yet, but all five jobs have had some national relevance in the past.
Here's breakdown and ranking of the five open jobs, from worst to best.
6. Colorado
Former coach: Karl Dorrell | Record: 8-15 | Fired: Oct. 2
Job pros: Colorado's beautiful location, campus and stadium are among its strongest selling points, as well as a stretch of national success under coach Bill McCartney from 1989 to 1996, when the program won a national championship and had five AP top-10 finishes. With the right coaching staff, infrastructure and philosophy, Colorado can access both Texas and California for recruits and produce competitive teams in the Pac-12. Buffaloes fans will get behind a winner, and there's administrative continuity with athletic director Rick George and chancellor Philip DiStefano.
Job cons: None of the past five CU coaches has generated any consistency, preventing a generation of recruits from identifying the program as a winning destination. Colorado's financial issues have improved a bit but remain a clear challenge for any coach. George is well-regarded but needs to get the hire right and likely won't get much slack if the new coach starts slowly. The state doesn't produce a volume of FBS recruits, so Colorado always has to look elsewhere to fill out most of its roster. Colorado also has been hit especially hard by transfer portal departures and seems to have a hard time filling those spots with incoming transfers.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 45-80
Candidate to watch: Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters. Colorado might be hesitant about hiring coaches with direct ties after the struggles under Jon Embree and Dorrell, but Walters' surging stock can't be ignored. He's overseeing the nation's No. 1 scoring defense at Illinois, which has quickly become a player development haven under coach Bret Bielema. Walters also has seen life away from CU and could apply those lessons to his alma mater, which needs a jolt in recruiting, schemes and overall philosophy. George might want more experience but would be foolish not to give Walters an extended look. Full list of coaches Colorado could target.
5. Georgia Tech
Former coach: Geoff Collins | Record: 10-28 | Fired: Sept. 26
Job pros: The school is in the center of arguably the nation's hottest recruiting hub in Atlanta. Georgia Tech has had stretches of national relevance, including a co-national title in 1990, five straight AP Top 25 finishes under coach George O'Leary and only two non-bowl seasons between 1997 and 2018. The team's path to success in the ACC isn't as difficult as those in some other Power 5 conferences. The new coach will arrive alongside a new athletic director, so there should be some good alignment immediately.
Job cons: Financial issues have plagued Georgia Tech while other ACC programs have accelerated their spending, and the school's history of poor coaching contracts hasn't helped close key gaps. Atlanta is an incredibly crowded and competitive recruiting scene, and Georgia Tech is often competing with programs boasting much more recent success and better resources. Although Collins tried hard to brand the program better, Georgia Tech often struggles for attention, even when winning.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 61-71
Candidate to watch: Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell. Georgia Tech seems like the most natural fit for Chadwell to land his first Power 5 opportunity. He has spent his entire career in the Southeast, and would bring a fresh approach, both with schemes and branding/marketing. As Johnson showed, Georgia Tech is often best off with distinct schemes, which Chadwell can implement after an incredible run at Coastal Carolina the past two-plus seasons. Full list of coaches Georgia Tech could target.
4. Arizona State
Former coach: Herm Edwards | Record: 8-15 | Fired: Sept. 18
Job pros: A location in the growing Phoenix market and a massive student enrollment with no major hurdles for admissions. The state has increasingly produced more Power 5 players, especially quarterbacks, and ASU also has good access to both California and Texas. Unlike other programs listed here, Arizona State has avoided prolonged down periods in its history. Coaches have won there, but just not enough. ASU has upgraded its football facilities in the past decade and has shown a willingness to build a more consistent and successful program.
Job cons: Whoever takes the job will be arriving at a very tenuous time. An NCAA investigation for alleged recruiting violations during the COVID-19 pandemic loom over the program. Athletic director Ray Anderson is still in his post, but for how much longer after his gamble with Edwards and a "new leadership model" ultimately failed? ASU is a sleeping giant that just can't be stirred. Since 1998, ASU has held an AP ranking at some point in all but eight seasons. The team has finished in the poll just four times. ASU's inability to sign the best quarterbacks from the Phoenix area is troubling.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 74-55
Candidate to watch: Former Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule. The Panthers fired Rhule on Oct. 10 after a 1-4 start and an 11-27 overall record. Rhule might not want to return to college football immediately, but if he does, the timing works out well. ASU and any other college program that fired its coach early would want a replacement by early December at the latest. Rhule wouldn't flinch at the challenges currently surrounding ASU, as he inherited worse at Baylor and got the team to the Big 12 championship game in his third season. If Anderson gets to make the hire, his fondness for the NFL could benefit a candidate like Rhule, who also could be in play for the Big Ten vacancies. Full list of coaches Arizona State could target.
3. Nebraska
Former coach: Scott Frost | Record: 16-31 | Fired: Sept. 11
Job pros: Few schools and states are more invested in a football program than Nebraska is with the Huskers. The willingness to fire Frost weeks before his buyout dropped by $7.5 million underscored Nebraska will spare no expense with football. The Memorial Stadium sellout streak has continued through many years without a conference championship and some without a competitive product on the field. Nebraska has by far the most national success of any current vacancy, as the Huskers won five national titles between 1970 and 1997, and finished outside the national rankings just twice between 1963 and 2001.
Job cons: Nebraska is mired in its worst stretch since the pre-Bob Devaney era in the late 1950s and early 1960s. The program doesn't resonate with recruits and their families like it used to, and lacks some of the advantages that helped coach Tom Osborne create a dynasty in Lincoln. Leadership instability has really hurt Nebraska since it joined the Big Ten, a partnership that some questioned from the very start. Nebraska had some clear recruiting hubs in the Big 12 that have been harder to establish in the Big Ten. Coaches also might be leery of a fan base that remembers the glory years and has had a hard time accepting the program's current reality.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 65-65
Candidate to watch: Kansas coach Lance Leipold. He really checks all the boxes Nebraska needs at a turbulent and critical time. He has won everywhere, dominating the Division III ranks before reviving Buffalo's program and now guiding Kansas -- by far the worst Power 5 program of the past decade -- to its first 5-0 start since 2009. Leipold also spent 13 seasons coaching in the state, including 2001 to 2003 as a Huskers assistant under Frank Solich. The Wisconsin native understands the player development piece and the values Nebraska needs to compete more consistently in the Big Ten. Full list of coaches Nebraska could target.
2. Wisconsin
Former coach: Paul Chryst | Record: 67-26 | Fired: Oct. 2
Job pros: Wisconsin has been one of the nation's most consistent programs for three decades, and ranks 11th in winning percentage since 2012. Despite the recent dip in performance, Wisconsin has a blueprint for success, rooted in player development, stingy defense and running the ball. Unlike other jobs on the list, Wisconsin needs tweaks more than an overhaul. Wisconsin has never made the four-team College Football Playoff but can realistically contend for a 12-team field. Madison and the campus are selling points in recruiting, including NIL, and fan support is strong. Athletic director Chris McIntosh played for Wisconsin and has spent his entire athletic administrative career with the program. McIntosh has pushed for some key facilities upgrades and showed with the Chryst decision that he's open to new strategies.
Job cons: The state doesn't produce a volume of elite recruits, and Wisconsin's admission standards are higher than those of many Big Ten programs. Wisconsin became a steady winner with below-average facilities and without paying huge money for its coaches. Although the program has ramped up in both areas recently, it remains a bit behind the Big Ten's elite programs. Expectations have been raised after a run of Rose Bowls and Big Ten championship game appearances, but might be unrealistic given the changes in the sport and within the Big Ten.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 97-40
Candidate to watch: Interim coach/defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. He's not a typical interim coach, simply holding a spot until the new leading man can be hired. Leonhard had been pegged as Chryst's successor, as he became one of college football's best defensive coordinators despite no on-field coaching experience before joining the UW staff in 2016. He's the embodiment of what Wisconsin can be, a walk-on from the state who became a three-time All-America selection and played a decade in the NFL. Leonhard also likely would bring fresh eyes to Wisconsin's recruiting efforts. McIntosh has given him a seven-game runway to secure the permanent job. Full list of coaches Wisconsin could target.
1. Auburn
Former coach: Bryan Harsin | Record: 9-12 | Fired: Oct. 31
Job pros: Despite all the dysfunction around Auburn, coaches can win big there when the pieces are aligned. Auburn won a national title in 2010, played for another in 2013 and reached the SEC championship game in 2017. Other than Georgia, Auburn is the SEC program with the most direct access to the fertile Atlanta recruiting region, and has shown it can access Florida and Georgia for top players, as well as compete within its own state of Alabama. Auburn has been ahead of many others with name, image and likeness, and could move into a new $92 million performance center next month. Although the team is set to finish outside the Top 25 for the third straight year, that hasn't happened since 1978. Auburn has the location, booster base and desire to be a regular contender.
Job cons: A former SEC assistant once said that Auburn is the worst good job in college football. The booster situation is complex, often fractured and virtually impossible for a coach to unite. Auburn is a great place for coaches to collect buyouts after they're fired, but not the ideal spot to build sustained success while asking for a bit of patience along the way. The school fired Gene Chizik two years after he won a national title, and dumped Gus Malzahn a year after his team finished No. 14 nationally. Expectations quickly get out of whack, and as long as Nick Saban walks the sideline in Tuscaloosa, Auburn will be a distant No. 2 in its own state. I considered putting Wisconsin ahead of Auburn -- even though the recruiting/NIL situation is significantly easier at Auburn -- because the environment can become so toxic.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 80-57
Candidate to watch: Liberty coach Hugh Freeze. Although Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin is viewed as the frontrunner for the Auburn job, Freeze might be the better fit for the long run. Freeze embraces the recruiting piece and would use Auburn's NIL program to his advantage. He has a known track record of producing exciting and effective offenses, first at Ole Miss and now at Liberty. Before Liberty, Freeze had spent his entire career in the SEC footprint. He has the personality to connect with Auburn fans and possibly bring together the power brokers around the program. His new contract at Liberty likely wouldn't prevent a move to Auburn. Freeze was unhirable in the SEC for a while after his downfall at Ole Miss, but more than five years after his resignation, a return makes more sense. Full list of coaches Auburn could target.