Herm Edwards was never going to coach Arizona State in 2023.
Not with an NCAA investigation, albeit a ridiculously slow one, hanging over the program, and significant penalties likely to follow. Not with the roster and recruiting in flux. Not with a revamped staff and no concrete plan for the future.
The only mini surprise is that it took an on-field result, Saturday night's home loss to Eastern Michigan, to push the situation over the edge. University president Michael Crow, who along with athletic director Ray Anderson had continued to support Edwards, finally backed off after the Eastern Michigan loss, telling the Arizona Republic, "We'll have to decide where we're going from here." On Sunday, Edwards and Arizona State parted ways, ending his tenure three games into his fifth season at the school. He finished 26-20.
In late 2017, Anderson had boldly hired Edwards, whom he had represented while working as an NFL agent, even though Edwards had not coached since 2008 and had not worked at the college level since 1989. Arizona State touted a "new leadership model," operating its program more like an NFL franchise and hoping to harness the "spirit of innovation."
Edwards' results weren't bad, as he never had a losing season. But the team never performed substantially better than it did under predecessor Todd Graham. In June 2021, Arizona State confirmed the NCAA investigation into the program's recruiting practices amid COVID-19 restrictions. Assistant coaches were placed on administrative leave. But Edwards trudged on through the 2021 season and, amazingly, into 2022.
There are so many questions: Where does ASU go from here? Will Anderson have any say in naming Edwards' successor? Should he? The NCAA investigation and subsequent penalties continue to loom. Some coaches still see ASU as a very good job, noting the location and the size of the school. If this were, say, 2019 and there was no investigation, Billy Napier and Dan Lanning both would be top candidates. Still, the circumstances surrounding the program make this a strange time to come to Tempe.
From the most likely candidates to some intriguing long shots, here's a look at whom Arizona State could consider to replace Edwards.
BYU coach Kalani Sitake: Before the Big 12 added BYU, Sitake certainly would look at a job like Arizona State as an obvious upgrade. Now it's not as clear-cut. BYU has rewarded Sitake with more salary and security, and the Cougars' program is rolling as it nears entry into the Big 12 in 2023. Sitake, 46, would be an absolute steal for ASU. He's 23-5 since the start of the 2020 season and would bring a tough-minded identity and stability to the program that fans would appreciate. Sitake also has recruited the region for his entire career.
Tom Herman: In Herman, Arizona State would get a coach with an excellent overall record (54-22 at Texas and Houston) who has ties to both Texas and California. Herman has two AP top-10 finishes, no losing seasons and a 5-0 bowl record. He would put together a strong staff and recruiting operation, and likely would help offset the damage from the NCAA investigation. Herman would be a very good choice under the circumstances. After last coaching in 2021 with the Chicago Bears, Herman is working this season as a CBS college football analyst.
USC defensive coordinator Alex Grinch: His name has come up for Power 5 job vacancies, but he likely needed a profile boost like the one he's getting right now. USC's defense has significantly improved in Grinch's first season as coordinator and playcaller. The Trojans have generated 10 takeaways in three games and look much more sound in their alignment and execution. Grinch, 42, has previous Pac-12 experience at Washington State and also has made stops at Ohio State, Missouri and Wyoming.
Baylor offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes: His name should come up for several jobs in the upcoming cycle, especially if Baylor builds on its championship success from 2021. Grimes, 53, spent three seasons as Arizona State's offensive line coach early in his career and worked in the region at both Colorado and BYU. He's an excellent line coach who has grown into the playcalling role and should be ready to lead his own program soon. His extensive ties to Texas and other areas also would help ASU in recruiting.
Oregon offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham: ASU might need to think differently with this search and go with a younger coach who can mature into the role. Dillingham is only 32 but has moved quickly through the coaching ranks, making coordinator stops at Memphis, Auburn, Florida State and now Oregon, where he finally has true autonomy over the offense. A strong playcalling year in Eugene will help Dillingham, a Phoenix native and Arizona State graduate who coached high school ball in the area and spent 2014 and 2015 on the ASU staff.
Colorado State coach Jay Norvell: If only Norvell had stayed at Nevada and continued to generate success, his candidacy could be positioned well for several openings in the current cycle. The question is whether Colorado State's 0-3 start would cool his chances with potential employers. Norvell, 59, spent the 2016 season at Arizona State before going to Nevada, where he went 30-17 in his final four seasons. He has coordinator experience from Oklahoma, UCLA and Nebraska, and also spent time in the NFL.
USC defensive backs coach Donte Williams: Arizona State's recruiting likely will struggle initially no matter what the program does. But Williams is the type of connected coach, especially in the Los Angeles area, who can mitigate the damage and keep talent coming to Tempe. Williams, 41, served as USC's interim coach for most of last season and has plenty of Pac-12 experience with stops at Oregon, Arizona and Washington. He interviewed for Fresno State's head-coaching vacancy last year and should get his own chance to lead a program soon.
Auburn coach Bryan Harsin: Like Edwards, Harsin entered the 2022 season with his job fate practically sealed. But he will get another shot to lead a program, and Arizona State would be a much better fit than Auburn ever was. Harsin still has excellent credentials in the region, going 69-19 at Boise State with three conference titles and four AP Top 25 finishes. He always seemed pegged for a Pac-12 job, and while this wasn't the path anyone envisioned, ASU could certainly do worse given its challenges.
Texas special assistant Gary Patterson: The future Hall of Famer is worth a call for Arizona State, at least to see if he's interested and would take the job under these circumstances. Patterson's TCU program ultimately fell off, but he accomplished just about everything at the program, from a Rose Bowl championship to conference titles in three different leagues. Patterson, 62, would provide instant credibility. He would need to assemble the right staff, but a job like ASU could energize him after the way things ended at TCU.
Utah State coach Blake Anderson: The Aggies' 1-2 start doesn't help, and Anderson likely would need to turn things around with a tough road ahead. But a Mountain West championship and a No. 24 AP finish in 2021 should help Anderson, 53, who is 63-42 as an FBS coach at Arkansas State and Utah State. He has extensive ties to Texas but also coached at New Mexico from 1999 to 2001 and is now back in the region. ASU might not have many options with Anderson's credentials and experience as a head coach.