Odds always hint at chaos. Week 9 of the college football season seems pretty straightforward on paper -- four teams in the AP top five are playing, and they're all favored by healthy margins as they gear up for bigger games, with greater College Football Playoff consequences, on the horizon.
Tennessee (69% win probability vs. Kentucky, per SP+), Ohio State (74% at Penn State), Georgia (86% vs. Florida) and Michigan (90% vs. Michigan State) each have healthy odds of surviving the weekend with their unbeaten records intact, but the cumulative odds of an upset are still pretty high. Mash those four odds together, and there is only a 40% chance of all four teams winning. Add unbeaten TCU's trip to West Virginia into the mix, and those odds shrink to 28%.
We don't know where Week 9 is going to strike, but the odds of at least one big name slipping up are solid. Throw in the latest round of potentially incredible Big 12 games, the beginning of Illinois' life as Big Ten West favorite, the latest episode of "As Texas A&M Turns," bounce-back opportunities for Syracuse, USC and UCLA, and games with huge Group of 5 title consequences (Cincinnati-UCF, Toledo-Eastern Michigan, Coastal Carolina-Marshall), and you've got yourself an entertaining Saturday.
Here's everything you need to follow in Week 9.
A test of Tennessee's well-roundedness
No. 19 Kentucky at No. 3 Tennessee (7 p.m., ESPN/ESPN app)
Tennessee has proven its top-five bona fides. The Volunteers' offense is either the best or second-best in the country, depending on how heavily one leans on the "ain't played nobody" factor with Ohio State. The run defense is legit, holding Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs to 4.3 yards per carry and hemming in both efficient LSU and explosive Florida attacks. They're fifth in both SP+ and FPI. They're CFP contenders by any definition.
From a matchups perspective, however, they've got their hands full this weekend. Mark Stoops' Kentucky Wildcats play some of the most physical football in the country, and they're as close to full strength as they've been all year. If the Vols are even slightly looking ahead to next week's titanic battle at Georgia, they're going to get popped in the mouth.
Maybe the most interesting battle of the weekend will take place when Tennessee has the football. We know about the upside the Vols bring to the table: Quarterback Hendon Hooker is second in Total QBR and either first or second in the current Heisman odds, and slot receiver Jalin Hyatt is suddenly doing things we've never seen before (last two games: 13 catches for 381 yards and seven touchdowns). Plus, another star receiver, Cedric Tillman, is expected to return from injury. The run game is good at moving the chains, and the offensive line prevents almost all negative plays. This is head coach Josh Heupel's dream offense. But Stoops and Kentucky coordinator Brad White have crafted a defense, and an overall system, that seem designed specifically to stop the Vols.
The Wildcats don't let quarterbacks scramble. Hooker is one of the most precise scramblers in the country -- while he prefers to throw, he ranks 18th nationally in scramble attempts per game and fifth in scramble yards. About once per quarter, he steals a first down that extends a drive. That adds up. But Kentucky allows only 12.7 scramble yards per game and held Florida's Anthony Richardson (third overall) to just 4 yards. Richardson appeared a bit banged up in the game, but Kentucky roughed him up when he was outside the pocket.
They create efficiency without risk. They don't blitz much (82nd in blitzes per dropback), focusing instead on filling passing lanes and playing devastating zone defense. Zone defense can be construed with a bend-don't-break approach, but Kentucky doesn't bend much. They're 11th in passing success rate allowed and 10th in raw QBR allowed, and they have allowed just six passes of 30-plus yards all season (14th). Maybe Hyatt & Co. are capable of just running past anyone at this point, but Kentucky contains passing games as well as anyone.
They take the air out of the ball. Tennessee averages about 6 seconds per play fewer than the average team based on its run-pass ratio. That's the second-fastest tempo in the country. Kentucky, meanwhile, has the slowest tempo, averaging 6.1 more seconds per snap than the average team. The Wildcats' defense faces only 11.1 drives per game (10th fewest). Two weeks ago, with quarterback Will Levis healthier and running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. in fifth gear after missing the first four games of the season, the Wildcats controlled the ball so well against Mississippi State -- seven drives of at least seven plays, five of at least four minutes -- that the Bulldogs got only eight possessions. That's like facing a service academy team!
Early in the season, the Wildcats had to rely heavily on Levis bailing them out on passing downs because they were running inefficiently. He did a solid job of it -- and it should be noted that everyone does a pretty solid job of converting through the air against Tennessee -- but with Rodriguez back in tow (he had 53 carries for 323 yards in his last two games), Kentucky is remaining on schedule much better.
Tennessee still has its excellent run defense and its impossibly dangerous offense. There's a chance that the Vols are capable of sucking even Kentucky into a track meet. They did last year (Tennessee 45, Kentucky 42), and they're a lot better at winning them this time around. But the matchups are intriguing.
Current line: Vols -12.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Vols by 8.5 | FPI projection: Vols by 13.4.
Can Penn State do anything to derail Ohio State?
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Penn State (noon, Fox)
Get stomped at Michigan early in conference play, then beat Minnesota at home and redefine your season with an upset of Ohio State. Win out down the stretch, win the Big Ten East when Ohio State beats Michigan, win the conference title game, change the trajectory of your entire program.
If you're a particularly optimistic Penn State fan, you've spent this week convincing yourself that your Nittany Lions are about to pull a 2016. James Franklin won his only Big Ten title that year with the run described above, and in the last two weeks the Lions have devoutly followed that script, taking a brutal 41-17 loss at Michigan, then rebounding with a 45-17 blowout of Minnesota. The Gophers were missing starting quarterback Tanner Morgan, but the PSU offense played its best game of the season. Cue the upset optimism!
One slight problem: We have no idea how to beat Ohio State at the moment.
The Buckeyes have been the most statistically dominant team in the country to date. They have made decent teams look like awful ones. No one else has beaten Wisconsin by 24, or Iowa by 44, or Michigan State by 29. (OK, Minnesota beat the Spartans by 27, but go with me here.) When ranking the unbeatens this week, I had to squint to find even potential statistical weaknesses for the Buckeyes -- the rare explosive passes they allow are pretty big, they might stink in red zone defense (we haven't seen enough of a sample to know for sure) and their return game doesn't offer much.
While their schedule strength has been shakier than that of other playoff contenders, it still ranks 54th overall per SP+. Among unbeatens, that's better than Michigan's (63rd) and Clemson's (69th) and nearly the same as Georgia's (49th). They're No. 1 in SP+, they have the best offense in the country if Tennessee doesn't, and they've overachieved projections by an average of 17.1 points over their last five games. Penn State has done better than anyone at staying close to the Buckeyes in recent years, but can anyone stay close to them at the moment?
The Nittany Lions do have the best cornerbacks Ohio State has faced this season: As primary coverage defenders, Joey Porter Jr. and Kalen King have allowed a combined 14-for-44 passing for just 143 yards and two team interceptions. Granted, King and Porter can't cover whatever combination of Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., Julian Fleming, tight end Cade Stover and an increasingly healthy Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on the field at the same time. But any stop against Ohio State is a victory, and Penn State could make more stops than most, even with deficiencies in run defense.
PSU will still almost certainly have to score 30-plus points, though. Jim Knowles' defense has yet to allow more than 21. But if the Buckeyes do have some issues in pass defense -- still more theory than confirmed flaw -- the Nittany Lions' passing game that we saw last week could exploit them.
Against a good Minnesota pass defense, Sean Clifford went 23-for-31 for 295 yards, four touchdowns and six completions of 20-plus yards. He used the entire field and completed passes to eight receivers.
It was a fun and effective mix of spreading the field horizontally and vertically. Plus, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen -- the keys to exploiting Ohio State's red zone weakness (if it exists) -- combined for 156 rushing yards on 28 carries. Everything clicked for the Nittany Lions. Now it has to click about 10 times more.
Current line: Buckeyes -15.5 (up from -15 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 11.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 11.6.
This week in Big 12 Bangers
It feels like every game in the Big 12 this season is either close, high scoring or both, and that could very well be the case again this week. All four of this week's conference games have a spread of a touchdown or less (and three are under three points), while the TCU-West Virginia game also has a lofty over/under of 69 points. Two matchups stand out -- one for its sheer importance and on-paper closeness and the other for its epic trap potential.
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
Kansas State 28.32, Oklahoma State 28.30. That's the SP+ projection for this one. On paper, it's almost impossible to be any closer. But as the great Dan Patrick once said, "They don't play games on paper. They play them inside television sets." They also play them with banged-up pieces.
Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders looked fine last week after dealing with shoulder issues, but Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez got hurt early last week, and his status for this week is unknown. Also unknown: the severity of injuries for OSU defensive backs Jason Taylor II and Thomas Harper. And defensive end Brock Martin. And Kansas State star running back Deuce Vaughn.
This is a battle-of-attrition game, but despite injuries, OSU still managed to come back and beat Texas last week, while KSU led TCU for most of the way before succumbing late. Kansas State will still try to run the ball and unlock big plays in the passing game against a Cowboys secondary willing to allow big plays in the name of aggressiveness. Oklahoma State will still attempt to dominate third downs on defense and the red zone on offense. This will still be a Mike Gundy team vs. a Chris Klieman team, and the stakes will still be high. At the moment, SP+ gives OSU a 23% chance of winning the Big 12 (second highest to TCU) and K-State a 15% chance (fourth highest). The winner of this one still has an excellent shot at the crown.
Current line: KSU -1.5 (flipped from OSU -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: K-State by 0.02 | FPI projection: OSU by 1.4.
No. 7 TCU at West Virginia (noon, ESPN/ESPN app)
TCU is getting used to close games. The Horned Frogs are still unbeaten, but three of their last five wins came by one score, and last week's 10-point win over K-State required a huge comeback. They've been playing with fire, but now they get a nice, relaxing game against a reeling opponent, right? West Virginia, coming off of a disastrous 48-10 loss to Texas Tech, is done, right? Kaput? And we're definitely overthinking any sort of trap-game potential of a noon kickoff in Morgantown, right?
If you watched WVU's dreadful performance against Tech last week, you're probably baffled about this game's 7.5-point line. But SP+ and FPI projections average out to just an 8.2-point advantage for TCU. Neal Brown's wobbly Mountaineers have, in their best moments, combined quick and efficient passing with a battering run game. They pushed Virginia Tech around and outplayed a physical Baylor team just two weeks ago. If they establish that physicality against a TCU defense that is solid but unspectacular against the run, things could get weird.
The Mountaineers still have got to stop TCU's passing game, though, and they don't really stop anyone through the air. WVU ranks 122nd in passing success rate allowed and 116th in raw QBR allowed. TCU scored 28 unanswered points against K-State, and the Wildcats have a much better defense than West Virginia, so even a comfortable WVU lead might not be safe until the game's closing moments. But it wouldn't be a total surprise if the wounded Mountaineers made this a battle.
Current line: TCU -7.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: TCU by 10.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 6.4.
Two historically tight rivalries with historically huge spreads
Over the last 40 years, the Georgia-Florida and Michigan-Michigan State rivalries have seen only five games in which one team was favored by 22 points or more (Michigan three times, Florida twice). The favorites won these games by an average of 42-17. Michigan-MSU has produced more surprises than most rivalries, and Georgia-Florida has seen wild shifts in momentum over time. These can be delightfully unpredictable games. But sometimes the spread is just too big for a surprise. Is that the case in 2022?
No. 1 Georgia vs. Florida (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The theme of this weekend seems to be "Let's talk ourselves into some upsets!" So let's keep that going. If you're trying to convince yourself that Florida, a 22.5-point underdog, has a shot at a surprise, here's my best stab at justifying it:
1. These teams play at absurdly slow tempos. Georgia games average just 11.4 possessions per team, and Florida games average 10.7. The Dawgs move the ball with ruthless efficiency, but then there are fewer possessions, mistakes hurt more and there are fewer opportunities for the superior team to pull away.
2. Florida's big plays are as big as anyone's. Running backs Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne and quarterback Anthony Richardson are all home run hitters in the ground game, and receivers Justin Shorter and Ricky Pearsall are averaging 20.8 yards per catch. Georgia, meanwhile, struggles to stretch the field with the passing game. If this becomes a big-play contest (and if we're being honest, it probably won't), Florida wins it.
Is that enough? Probably not. Georgia is quite a bit better overall. But if the Gators are able to make the Dawgs anxious, chunk plays and low possession totals will play a huge role.
Current line: Georgia -22.5 (up from -22 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Georgia by 18.8 | FPI projection: Georgia by 21.7.
Michigan State at No. 4 Michigan (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN app)
Same deal as above: If you're trying to talk yourself into Michigan State's upset capabilities, here are the best justifications for it.
1. Let's start with the tempo thing again: Michigan games average 11.6 possessions per team, Michigan State 11.8. That's a bit more than Georgia-Florida, but still well below average.
2. Michigan State's red zone offense is fantastic -- 12th in red zone touchdown rate (76%) -- while Michigan is unamazing in the red zone on either offense (46th) or defense (38th). If the Spartans are forcing field goals but scoring TDs, they don't need nearly as many scoring chances to keep up. We've seen this episode before: Michigan created eight scoring opportunities to MSU's five but settled for four field goals and lost, 37-33.
3. The Spartans could tee off if Michigan gets behind schedule. The Wolverines rank 83rd in passing downs sack rate allowed, and MSU's defense ranks 18th in the same category. If ace pass-rusher Jacoby Windmon and his cohorts don't get home, J.J. McCarthy will probably find open receivers and move the chains. (There's also the matter of forcing Michigan behind schedule in the first place, which could be difficult.)
4. We still haven't seen McCarthy face much adversity. He's attempted just 15 dropbacks while trailing. We don't know that he will do poorly in rough situations, but we haven't seen him overcome them yet either.
Red zone dominance and key sacks have driven many an upset through the years in this sport. But a win here would be the biggest surprise in Michigan State's recent history of Ann Arbor surprises.
Current line: Michigan -23 (up from -22.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 22.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 18.9.
My favorite bets
Week 8 was another 3-2 week for my best bets, making me 22-17-1 overall (56%). We remain one great week away from pushing 65% or higher and one bad week from being dead-even 50%. I'll pretend the former is more likely than the latter. Here are this week's five games.
Arizona State at Colorado: Over 46.5 (7:30 p.m., ESPNU/ESPN app). This line has confused me all week. These teams have played 14 combined games, and 11 have topped 46.5 points. Granted, two of the three games that didn't have taken place in the last two weeks. But they involved Cal and Stanford, two teams happy to engage in rock fights. Arizona State's offense is inconsistent, but Colorado's defense usually assures fireworks for its opponents. SP+ says ASU 35, Colorado 20. That's a good amount of cushion.
East Carolina +3 at BYU (8 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN app). Consider this one a dare to BYU. The Cougars have fallen from 19th to 76th in SP+ over the last six games and are coming off of an embarrassing blowout loss to Liberty. ECU, meanwhile, is up to 60th after a shocking blowout of UCF. Even if the Pirates revert to their normal form, their normal form could easily be enough to take down BYU unless the Cougars rally at some point.
Auburn +3.5 vs. Arkansas (noon, SEC Network/ESPN app). The idea of putting money on Auburn, with its one-dimensional offense (good run game, and that's it), one-dimensional defense (good pass defense, and that's it) and dead-man-walking situation at head coach, feels like folly. But the Tigers have overachieved projections in two of the last three games, Arkansas' defense has been quite bad this year, and with the game at Jordan-Hare Stadium, SP+ projects it as pretty much a tossup (Auburn by 0.2).
Georgia Tech +24 at Florida State (noon, ACC Network/ESPN app). This one is bait, and I'm falling for it. Tech quarterback Jeff Sims is injured and questionable, and backup Zach Gibson was unimpressive in last week's loss to Virginia. But the Tech offense was already terrible; a rapidly improving defense is their calling card, and ... 24 is just a massive number. Plus, FSU's Mike Norvell has Miami to think about next week and could keep some cards close to the vest if he can get away with it. And did I mention that 24 is a massive number?
USF at Houston: Over 61 (noon, ESPN2/ESPN app). Against teams with defenses ranked 80th or worse in SP+ (USF is 123rd), Houston is averaging 34.4 points per game. Against offenses ranked in the top 70 (USF is 62nd), the Cougars are allowing 35 points per game. These teams have played 14 games, and eight have topped 61.5. The margins here aren't amazing, but both offenses are superior to both defenses.
Week 9 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
East Carolina at BYU (8 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN app). Seriously, BYU, what happened here? Are you actually going to rebound at some point? Current line: BYU -3 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: ECU by 2.3 | FPI projection: BYU by 1.9.
Early Saturday
Oklahoma at Iowa State (noon, FS1). A heavyweight fight when Oklahoma has the ball against ISU's top-15 defense and a bantamweight tussle when ISU has the ball against OU's defense. Both teams still have work to do to secure bowl eligibility. Current line: OU -1 (down from -2 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 4.2 | FPI projection: ISU by 4.2.
Notre Dame at No. 16 Syracuse (noon, ABC/ESPN app). Notre Dame has ... limitations, it's fair to say. Quarterback, for one. A lack of big-play ability, for another. An abysmal red zone defense too. But the Irish can bully teams with the run game if they let them, and for as surprising and effective as Syracuse has been this season, it is dreadful against the run. Can the Orange bounce back from last weekend's Clemson heartbreaker and handle a weird matchup? Current line: Syracuse -2.5 (up from -2 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Syracuse by 4.1 | FPI projection: Syracuse by 3.7.
Toledo at Eastern Michigan (noon, ESPNU/ESPN app). Despite last week's loss to Buffalo, Toledo is still the extreme front-runner in the MAC West, but if EMU springs a home upset, the picture changes significantly. EMU's run game against Toledo's run defense is a high-level matchup, and I'm not sure how it will play out. Current line: Toledo -6.5 (down from -8.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Toledo by 9.8 | FPI projection: Toledo by 9.9.
Saturday afternoon
No. 17 Illinois at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN app). Illinois is a road favorite ... and a division favorite. It's a whole new world in the Big Ten West; how do the Fighting Illini handle it? Can a ridiculously good defense keep carrying the load for a limited offense? Is Nebraska capable of springing a surprise or two down the stretch? Current line: Illinois -7.5 (up from -7 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Illinois by 6.0 | FPI projection: Illinois by 6.5.
No. 10 Wake Forest at Louisville (3:30 p.m., ACCN/ESPN app). Last year, Wake made its first-ever appearance in the AP top 10 and immediately lost a track meet against North Carolina. Can the Deacs make a longer stay this time? Both of these teams have headliner quarterbacks and better-than-expected defenses, and Louisville has drastically overachieved projections for three of the last four weeks. A sneaky big, and potentially sneaky good, ACC Atlantic battle. Current line: Wake -3.5 (down from -5.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Wake by 4.1 | FPI projection: Louisville by 0.4.
No. 8 Oregon at California (3:30 p.m., FS1). Cal responded to a dreadful loss to Colorado by giving Washington all it could handle last week. Can the Golden Bears offer a smoking hot Ducks team any resistance? Probably not, but watch this one just for the sheer, sexy ruthlessness of the Oregon offense. Current line: Oregon -17 (up from -15.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Oregon by 16.9 | FPI projection: Oregon by 13.2.
No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (3:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN app). What the heck was that, UCF? The Knights were cruising toward this enormous battle with a string of impressive wins, but then they got the snot beaten out of them by East Carolina. If they respond well to that humbling, this could be an incredibly fun game pitting UCF's John Rhys Plumlee, Cincy's Ben Bryant and a couple of near-elite run defenses (and a reasonably banged-up Cincy squad in general) in front of the expected wild Bounce House crowd. Current line: UCF -1.5 (flipped from Cincy -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 1.7 | FPI projection: UCF by 3.6.
Missouri at No. 25 South Carolina (4 p.m., SECN/ESPN app). South Carolina's "jump out to a huge lead with special teams and turnovers, then hold on for dear life" recipe, deployed effectively against Texas A&M last week, isn't the most sustainable approach in the world. But while Mizzou's defense could control the line of scrimmage and limit the Gamecocks' attack, you still have to score points to win. The Tigers aren't very good at that. Current line: Gamecocks -4.0 (down from -5.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Gamecocks by 6.9 | FPI projection: Gamecocks by 6.5.
Saturday evening
No. 10 USC at Arizona (6 p.m., Pac-12). Lincoln Riley's Trojans have had a week to stew about their tight loss to Utah. Now they attempt to take out their frustrations on an Arizona team that is fast, spirited ... and probably too limited to hang in the fight for four quarters. Current line: USC -15.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: USC by 17.2 | FPI projection: USC by 17.6.
No. 15 Ole Miss at Texas A&M (7:30 p.m., SECN/ESPN app). Per SP+, there's still a 31% chance of A&M finishing 7-5 or better and a 32% chance of missing a bowl altogether. This ridiculously disappointing season could still go in a lot of directions, though the vibes aren't great. Meanwhile, it's a pivot point for Ole Miss: Was last week's blowout loss to LSU the start of a slump or a glitch on the way to another 10-win (or better) season? Current line: Ole Miss -2 (down from -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 2.7.
Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (8 p.m., ACCN/ESPN app). A pair of tight road wins and the general collapse of fellow contenders has made UNC an overwhelming ACC Coastal favorite: Despite a mere No. 44 ranking in SP+ (No. 105 on defense), the Heels have a 71% chance of winning the division. But those odds shift significantly if they don't take care of business against Israel Abanikanda and the Panthers. Current line: UNC -3 (down from -4 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UNC by 3.1 | FPI projection: UNC by 6.2.
Baylor at Texas Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN app). Everyone's favorite rivalry -- the BU-TT Bowl -- brings another draw to the table: It's also the Fourth Downs Bowl. The Red Raiders lead the nation with 32 fourth-down attempts in seven games, while the Bears are eighth with 23. This game will break coach math, even if it doesn't have much impact on the Big 12 title race. Current line: Tech -2.5 (up from -2 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Baylor by 3.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 0.3.
Coastal Carolina at Marshall (7 p.m., NFL Network). The Sun Belt East remains up for grabs -- SP+ gives Coastal a 32% title chance, Marshall 26%, Appalachian State 23% and Old Dominion 12% -- but the winner here becomes the de facto division favorite. Coastal's offense is still a delight, but Marshall's defense is by far the best the Chanticleers have faced. Current line: Marshall -2.5 (same as on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Marshall by 4.7 | FPI projection: Marshall by 4.8.
Late Saturday
Stanford at No. 12 UCLA (10:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN app). Stanford has at least slightly overachieved SP+ projections for four straight weeks, and UCLA is coming off of a two-touchdown loss to Oregon. If there's any hangover involved, the Bruins could fall victim to an upset. (And if there's not, the Bruins roll.) Current line: UCLA -16.5 (up from -16 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UCLA by 19.5 | FPI projection: UCLA by 10.8.
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track. Last week's showcase included a pair of outstanding Big Sky games -- Montana State's wild, safety-heavy win over Weber State and Sacramento State's overtime comeback against Montana. We've got another couple of huge Big Sky games this week, not to mention Jackson State's GameDay showcase against a smoking hot Southern team. And we've got an absolute mess to clean up in Wisconsin!
FCS: No. 15 Fordham at No. 8 Holy Cross (1 p.m., ESPN+/ESPN app). The Patriot League doesn't typically produce champions capable of making major noise in the FCS playoffs. But Holy Cross ranks seventh in my FCS SP+ rankings -- ahead of North Dakota State! -- and Fordham's offense is dynamic and dangerous. The home team probably handles this high-end matchup up north.
FCS: No. 23 Idaho at No. 3 Sacramento State (9 p.m., ESPN+/ESPN app). The Big Sky has another huge game -- No. 10 Montana at No. 7 Weber State (3 p.m., ESPN+/ESPN app) -- but I'm going with this one because Idaho is so hot. Jason Eck's Vandals gave both Washington State and Indiana hell in early-season losses and have beaten five FCS opponents (including Montana) by an average of 42-21. If Sac State is hungover at all from last week's huge win, Idaho could score an upset. If it's indeed an upset at all.
D3: No. 8 Wisconsin-La Crosse at Wisconsin-Oshkosh (2 p.m., local streaming). Following Wisconsin-Whitewater's upset loss to UW-Platteville last week, the WIAC -- Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference -- is a spectacular mess. Four teams (including La Crosse) are 3-1 in conference play, and two more (including Oshkosh) are 2-2. At least four WIAC teams could make noise in the playoffs, but they have to make it first.