The party is thinning out quickly. Just two weeks ago, 15 teams remained unbeaten at the FBS level, and now we're down to only six.
Every college football season takes on its own personality in terms of how many powers avoid early upsets, how many upstarts make runs (and how long they last) and how many mid-majors threaten to run the table. Over the past 10 full seasons -- from 2011 to 2021, minus the forever exception of 2020 -- there are typically 8.5 unbeaten teams eight weeks into the season, 6.5 from power conferences and 2.0 from non-powers. We're running below average this season, primarily because of the lack of viable teams from the Group of 5. The last G5 members left the unbeaten party a week ago.
This week could thin the ranks further. Based on SP+ win projections, we should expect to lose an average of 2.1 of the six unbeatens, and there's only a 28% chance that all five active teams (Clemson is idle) survive the weekend unscathed.
Let's figure out who's most likely to go down and ask one big question about each team. More importantly, let's rank the unbeatens!
6. TCU
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 15th, respectively
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 5.6% (last week: 3.7%)
What they did in Week 8: Defeated Kansas State 38-28. Things almost went awry for the Horned Frogs as K-State's backup quarterback Will Howard, in for the injured Adrian Martinez, led the Wildcats to four consecutive touchdowns and a 28-10 lead midway through the second quarter. But Max Duggan threw for two touchdowns, Kendre Miller rushed for two more and the TCU defense held the Wildcats scoreless, with two turnovers and two missed field goals, over the final 38 minutes. Howard began the game 8-for-10 for 185 yards and two touchdowns plus a rushing score, but he went just 5-for-10 for 40 yards and an interception from there.
Week 9 opponent: at West Virginia (SP+ win probability: 72%). Neal Brown's Mountaineers collapsed last week in a 48-10 loss to Texas Tech, but they're overachieving SP+ projections at home by about six points per game.
One big question: Can the Horned Frogs avoid another Sonny funk? It's a bit unfair, really. Sonny Dykes is 78-63 in his head-coaching career, 32-10 since the start of 2019. He has clearly found a nice rhythm coaching in his home state, but we seem to be anticipating when a collapse is coming.
In the past three years of his stellar run at SMU, Dykes was 20-1 in games that took place before the last weekend in October and 5-9 thereafter. Part of that had to do with when the good teams showed up on the schedule, of course -- of those nine late-season losses, five were to teams that finished with double-digit wins -- but his Mustangs also lost to a 6-6 Memphis team in 2021 and a 3-6 East Carolina squad in 2020. (Both of those losses were on the road, as were seven of the nine overall.)
We can't really say that the schedule will get harder in the coming weeks because, well, it's already been pretty hard. The Horned Frogs have beaten four ranked foes in October alone, and three of those victims still rank in the SP+ top 20. There's not a gimme left on the schedule, and the Frogs are currently projected underdogs, per SP+, in upcoming trips to Texas (Week 11) and Baylor (Week 12).
Then again, almost no one has consistently overachieved projections more than the Frogs. They've only lost once against the spread, and they're overachieving against the line by 8.5 points per game.
Duggan remains 10th in Total QBR with a passing line almost identical to the one that has USC's Caleb Williams within reach of the Heisman (they're within 100 passing yards of each other with the exact same 19-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio). Three tricky road games remain in this rugged conference, but Dykes will have every opportunity to prove that his Mustangs' November fades were more fluke than trend.
5. Clemson
SP+ and FPI rankings: 9th and 7th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 33.1% (last week: 17.1%)
What they did in Week 8: Defeated Syracuse 27-21. Like TCU, the Tigers trailed an upstart at home early on. They needed some bench magic to survive. Down 21-10 late in the third quarter, coach Dabo Swinney benched struggling quarterback DJ Uiagalelei -- who had just 138 passing yards and three turnovers -- for blue-chipper Cade Klubnik. Swinney didn't ask Klubnik to actually do much (the freshman was just 2-for-4 passing for 19 yards, a sack, and 26 non-sack rushing yards), but the turnovers stopped, and Will Shipley's 50-yard burst gave the Tigers a lead they wouldn't relinquish.
Week 9 opponent: idle. Clemson has a week to get Uiagalelei sorted out before a trip to Notre Dame (SP+ win probability: 69%).
One big question: Do the Tigers have enough firepower? It's a strange thing to ask about a team that has produced 12 first-round NFL draft picks since 2015 and boasts more blue-chippers on the depth chart than most. But among these six unbeatens, the Tigers have by far the least effective quarterback, plus a freshman No. 1 receiver and a defense that ranks both 60th in success rate allowed and 56th in explosive play rate allowed. While Shipley is absolutely dynamite (his 172 yards and two scores were the difference Saturday and won him my weekly Heisman honors), every team on this list has an excellent run game.
No one manages a game like Swinney -- with Saturday's win, he is now 32-7 in one-score finishes since 2012 -- and Clemson's trophy cabinet is full because of it. His Tigers are projected favorites in every remaining game on their schedule and stand as the third-most likely team to make the CFP, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, but they could get to the postseason without having beaten a single team in the SP+ top 25. In their past five games, they've narrowly defeated the teams currently ranked 27th (Wake Forest), 38th (Florida State) and 40th (Syracuse).
The potential is there, of course, especially on the defensive front. Tyler Davis has eight tackles for loss in the past five games after missing time with injury, Xavier Thomas has two in three games after missing the first five and all-world tackle Bryan Bresee is working his way back into shape after missing time as well. At full strength, this defensive line is as good as anyone's, and the secondary has rebounded a bit after getting torched by Wake Forest. Combine what this defense was supposed to be all season with a strong run game, and Swinney won't need to ask as much from his quarterback.
Uiagalelei will still have to deliver, though, and if he doesn't, Klubnik will have to instead.
4. Tennessee
SP+ and FPI rankings: 5th and 5th. We've got total symmetry from the computers in the top five.
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 12.3% (last week: 14.9%)
What they did in Week 8: Defeated UT Martin 65-24. In a perfectly timed recovery game following the Volunteers' huge win over Alabama, the Vols put this one away with a 51-0 run over about 23 minutes. UT Martin is in the SP+ top 20 in FCS and moved the ball well in garbage time, but this one wasn't as close as the final score would indicate.
Week 9 opponent: Kentucky (SP+ win probability: 69%). The Wildcats get shots at both the Vols and Georgia in the coming weeks.
One big question: Can the defense hold up? Through seven weeks last season, as Josh Heupel's offense was still working its way into fifth gear, the Vols ranked 24th in defensive SP+. By the end of the season, they were 88th. Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia and Purdue combined to average 46 points per game and 6.7 yards per play against them, and even Vanderbilt scored 21. It was clear that Tennessee did not yet have the depth and experience on defense to account for Heupel's explosive, mach-speed offense. It was projected 59th in defensive SP+ heading into this year because of it.
The Vols are currently up to 40th, having overcome a dreadfully inefficient pass defense with legitimate quality against the run. The Vols can render teams one-dimensional, even if that one dimension will still score them some points. But while they defended well early in the season and humbled LSU in a 40-17 win two weeks ago, opponents have scored at least a touchdown more than projected in three of the Vols' past four games. Are we trending toward another defensive collapse? Can even the best offense in the country -- which Tennessee legitimately might boast at this point with quarterback Hendon Hooker soaring and receiver Jalin Hyatt catching fire -- offset that?
Kentucky comes to town this weekend, and trips to Georgia and South Carolina loom. The Vols rank sixth in rushing success rate allowed and 13th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line) -- linebackers Jeremy Banks and Aaron Beasley have combined for 15 stuffs, and five others have at least three each -- so they might be equipped to force all three of these run-happy teams to play left-handed. But Kentucky's Will Levis has been making big passes to catch the Wildcats up to the chains all season, Georgia's Stetson Bennett remains ruthlessly efficient throwing the ball and both the Wildcats and Bulldogs have top-10 defenses capable of making at least a few stops. Tennessee will have to do the same if it wants to remain on the unbeatens list for a few more weeks.
3. Michigan
SP+ and FPI rankings: 4th and 4th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 21.3% (last week: 18.9%)
What they did in Week 8: Idle. Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum got some time to rest their weary legs after rushing for a combined 339 yards and four touchdowns against Penn State.
Week 9 opponent: Michigan State (SP+ win probability: 90%). The Wolverines have incredibly lost four of their past six as home favorites against the rival Spartans, but they haven't been favored over MSU by this much at home -- the line is currently Michigan by 22.5 -- since 1992, when they won 35-10.
One big question: What happens when J.J. McCarthy has to take charge? Last we saw of the Wolverines, they were racking up 400-plus yards on a Penn State team that was in the top 10 at the time. Their 41-17 win -- a 24-point margin that actually flattered the Nittany Lions a bit -- was one of the biggest statement wins of the season. Michigan more than doubled PSU's yardage (563-268) and nearly tripled its first downs (28-10). A funky pick-six and one big play gave the Wolverines a surprising deficit early in the second half, but they scored the game's final 25 points.
The resounding victory served as a reminder that if you can't stop Michigan from shoving your defensive front around, nothing else matters. The Wolverines have made new starting quarterback McCarthy's job awfully easy so far; the sophomore has attempted 155 dropbacks this season, and his team has been trailing for only 15 of them. He's completed 77% of his passes and ranks 12th in Total QBR, which is great, but the mostly comfortable leads have prevented us from learning everything we need to know about the former blue-chipper.
In those 15 dropbacks McCarthy has attempted while trailing -- only one of which took place in the second half of a game -- he completed eight of 12 passes for 75 yards with a sack, two scrambles, two fumbles and an average of just 5.1 yards per dropback. That's an uninspiring sample, but it's also a tiny one. And it might be all we get until late in the season. Per SP+, the Wolverines are projected favorites of at least 20 points in each of their next three games and are currently given a 16.5-point advantage over Illinois the week before the big showdown at Ohio State. Illinois might have the best defense in the country, but the Fighting Illini probably don't have the offense to keep up. We might not see a genuine "they need to score right here, right now" drive for McCarthy & Co. until Columbus.
None of this is necessarily a problem, mind you. It might turn out that McCarthy is great under pressure. It's just that we won't know the answer, one way or the other, until the most important moment of the season.
2. Georgia
SP+ and FPI rankings: 3rd and 3rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 31.7% (last week: 28.1%)
What they did in Week 8: Idle. The Bulldogs outscored opponents by a combined 111-13 in their past nine quarters before the off week. Now they face four consecutive opponents ranked 31st or better in SP+, only one at home (Tennessee on Nov. 5).
Week 9 opponent: vs. Florida (SP+ win probability: 86%). The Dawgs are currently 22-point favorites over their neutral-field rivals; in the past 40 years, they've never been favored by more than 14 against the Gators.
One big question: Can anyone make the Dawgs pay for their lack of explosiveness? My marginal explosiveness measure looks at the magnitude of a team's successful plays and adjusts for down, distance and field position. Are you gaining just enough to move the chains? Are you racking up chunk plays (and the easy points usually associated with them)? Georgia is as ridiculously efficient as ever on offense -- first in passing success rate, third in rushing, first on standard downs, first on passing downs -- and as any service academy can tell you, if you're never behind schedule and are always moving the chains, you're probably going to score a lot of points. Georgia has scored 33 or more points in six of seven games, and while this hasn't been the single best UGA defense of the Kirby Smart era, the thought of having to score 30-plus on the Dawgs to win is awfully intimidating.
They rank 86th in marginal explosiveness, however, and 113th in the passing game. There are currently 12 quarterbacks with a Total QBR of 80 or higher (Bennett is 11th at 84.7); for passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, Bennett ranks last in that group with a 29% completion rate and in distant last with an average of 8.5 yards per such pass. (No one else is under 13.) No Georgia wideout has caught more than one such ball, and tight end Darnell Washington is the only Dawgs receiver with even two. Last year's most common deep threat, Adonai Mitchell, has been hurt for much of the season, and no one has filled in beautifully in his absence.
Does this matter? It almost did against Missouri. The Tigers and their top-30 defense tried to attack the line of scrimmage and risked getting burned deep, and Bennett didn't even try to punish them, going just 1-for-3 on passes 20-plus yards downfield. The Dawgs trailed for most of the game and needed a nearly perfect fourth quarter to come back and win 26-22. Among future opponents, Mississippi State and Kentucky have better defenses than Mizzou's and just about everyone has a better offense. Can someone hem the Dawgs in enough to pull off an upset? And on the flip side, if Tennessee puts up the type of point total it did against Alabama, does Georgia have enough firepower to keep up?
1. Ohio State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 1st and 1st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 37.2% (last week: 38.3%)
What they did in Week 8: Defeated Iowa 54-10. The brilliant Iowa defense held the Buckeyes to just one touchdown in their first nine drives and scored a touchdown of its own in the process. But a series of field goals and a pick-six gave Ohio State a comfortable halftime lead, and Iowa buckled in the second half. C.J. Stroud threw four touchdowns to four receivers, and Iowa not only gained just 158 yards but also turned the ball over six times in 59 snaps. The final score flattered the Hawkeyes.
Week 9 opponent: at Penn State (SP+ win probability: 74%). No one stays as consistently close to the Buckeyes as PSU does -- average score since Penn State's 2016 upset win: Buckeyes 33, Nittany Lions 26 -- but since a season-opening slog against Notre Dame, Ohio State has won its past six games by an average of 54-16. The Buckeyes are in fifth gear.
One big question: How exactly does one beat the Buckeyes? Like Clemson, Ohio State has yet to beat a particularly good team this year. Only one previous opponent (Wisconsin) ranks higher than 35th in SP+, and no one has a record better than 5-3. If you want to fold your arms and yell "They ain't played nobody!" that's fine.
Unlike Clemson, however, the Buckeyes have been leaving a path of destruction. Star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has barely seen the field because of injury, and only one opponent has been able to stay within 29 points. The offense is almost statistically perfect (first in points per drive, second in success rate, fourth in explosive play rate, second in red zone touchdown rate), and while the defense has yet to face even a top-40 offense, it ranks fifth in points allowed per possession and fourth in success rate allowed. I always say that it's how you play, not who you play, that matters most, and Ohio State is making mostly mediocre-to-decent teams look like FCS also-rans.
We have yet to see if the Buckeyes can handle Michigan's uniquely burly and physical offense better than they did last year, but they're handling everyone else better. It's why they're No. 1 here. But here's a quick rundown of their weakest stats to date:
• Their defense is 81st in passing marginal explosiveness allowed. They allow almost no successful passes (fourth in passing success rate allowed), but opponents have completed four passes of 40-plus yards on them and three of 50-plus.
• They've allowed touchdowns in every goal-to-go situation they've faced. That's not good, but it would mean more if they'd faced more than three such situations.
• Their return game has been iffy thus far. No kick returns over 25 yards, one punt return over 15 and a muffed punt against Rutgers.
Honestly, that's about it. They haven't given Penn State or any other future opponent much to work with. Things change, and teams are constantly getting better or worse, but to date Ohio State has been the best team in the country. Let's see if the Buckeyes can keep it up.