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College football bowl projections after Week 8: Playoff, New Year's Six matchups

Behind running back Kendre Miller, TCU remained unbeaten and in the College Football Playoff discussion. Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports

There weren't any seismic shifts in the college football landscape this week, but we did see three teams -- Ole Miss, UCLA and Syracuse -- suffer their first loss of the season, while TCU, Oklahoma State and Clemson rallied for come-from-behind wins.

What does it all mean for the bowl picture? ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach break it all down with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP matchups, which teams helped and hurt their causes the most and what matchup they'd most like to see.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Clemson

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Tennessee

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: The landscape didn't change much at the top. So long as there are four Power 5 programs with a chance to go undefeated, they will be on the trajectory to reach the playoff. It's unlikely to finish that way, of course, but projecting how things will play out between now and December is nothing that resembles an accurate science. The main difference this week is that three more teams fell from the ranks of the unbeaten -- UCLA, Ole Miss and Syracuse -- leaving the following teams with a valid case for inclusion:

SEC: Georgia, Tennessee; Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan; ACC: Clemson; Big 12: TCU.

Something's got to give with Georgia-Tennessee and Ohio State-Michigan games on the regular-season schedule.

Schlabach: There wasn't much shake-up at the top after Clemson rallied from an 11-point deficit with two fourth-quarter touchdowns in a 27-21 victory against No. 14 Syracuse at Death Valley. Tigers coach Dabo Swinney says his team doesn't have a quarterback controversy, even after he benched starter DJ Uiagalelei and replaced him with five-star freshman Cade Klubnik. Uiagalelei had his worst game of the season with two interceptions and a fumble that Syracuse returned 90 yards for a score.

Defending national champion Georgia had an open date, Ohio State rolled past Iowa 54-10 at home, and Tennessee cruised past FCS opponent UT Martin 65-24. Georgia and Tennessee will have to take care of business this week -- the Bulldogs play Florida in Jacksonville, and the Volunteers host Kentucky -- before their Nov. 5 showdown in Athens, which could decide the SEC East race.

Bonagura's matchup he'd most like to see

Any CFP game featuring a team that hasn't been there before. By my projections, that means TCU-Georgia. I'm skeptical the Horned Frogs could get through the defending champions, but new blood in the playoff is always a good thing, and I'll welcome that every single time.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Penn State

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: TCU vs. Alabama

Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCLA vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Cincinnati

Schlabach's team that helped itself the most

Oklahoma State: I'm not sure Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy has gotten enough credit for the great work he has done at his alma mater. The Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 10 minutes to rally past Texas 41-34 at home Saturday. Quarterback Spencer Sanders continues to play well, throwing for 391 yards with two scores. The Pokes play what might be their most difficult remaining regular-season game at No. 17 Kansas State next week.


Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon

Bonagura's team that helped itself the most

Oregon: The Ducks have almost zero margin for error considering their blowout loss to Georgia to open the season, but they're undefeated since then and are the only team in the Pac-12 without a conference loss. They were dominant in a win against previously undefeated UCLA, and while they would still need several things to break right for a realistic shot at the playoff, they avoided elimination with the win over the Bruins.

Schlabach's matchup he'd most like to see

Michigan vs. Oregon in the Rose Bowl would be a fun one. The Wolverines didn't play Saturday, but they've played very well so far this season. Ducks first-year coach Dan Lanning has done a tremendous job bouncing back from an ugly defeat against Georgia in the opener.


Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UAB vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: UTEP vs. Bowling Green

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. North Texas
Schlabach: SMU vs. Rice

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Houston
Schlabach: Miami vs. Memphis

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. UNLV
Schlabach: North Texas vs. San Diego State

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Marshall vs. BYU
Schlabach: Troy vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Ole Miss

Schlabach's team that hurt its cause the most

UCLA: Ole Miss' second-half no-show was ugly, but so was UCLA's effort at Oregon. The Bruins had been pretty good on defense, but the Ducks piled up 545 yards of offense, including 262 rushing. Ducks quarterback Bo Nix threw for five touchdowns. As disappointing as the loss was for the Bruins, they'll still have a chance to get things right and stay in the thick of the Pac-12 race. Their Nov. 19 showdown against USC at the Rose Bowl still looms large.


Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Wyoming

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTEP vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. UAB

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: San Jose State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rice vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern

Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. UCF

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Memphis vs. Army
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Army

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Troy
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Appalachian State

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Air Force

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Eastern Michigan

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Liberty vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. South Alabama

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: SMU vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. California

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Texas A&M vs. Tulane

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin

Dec. 28

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. UCF
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Houston

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Florida
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Arkansas

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: NC State vs. USC
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Utah

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Baylor

Dec. 29

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Duke vs. Purdue

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Texas

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. Utah
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Minnesota

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Duke vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Oregon State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: NC State vs. Florida

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Ball State

Dec. 31

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Maryland vs. South Carolina

Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Kentucky

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Bonagura's team that hurt its cause the most

Ole Miss: At 7-0, the Rebels were within striking distance of the top four, but a 45-20 loss to LSU dropped them to third in the SEC West (behind LSU and Alabama). The possibility of Lane Kiffin beating Nick Saban on Nov. 12 seems even less likely now.