The College Football Playoff selection committee chairs have said repeatedly over the past eight seasons they rank teams -- not conferences.
It's easy to tell, though, how much unspoken clout a conference holds in the room.
In the first ranking of the inaugural CFP in 2014, the selection committee had three teams from the SEC West Division in its top four. It was a bold move that still resonates today, a reminder that there's no limit to the number of teams that can qualify from one conference. The number of ranked teams from each league also impacts respective contenders because the committee looks at how many wins a team has against CFP Top 25 teams.
How good is Clemson's résumé? Well, it depends in large part on how many ACC teams finish in the committee's top 25. Do Ohio State and Michigan have any regular-season wins over ranked opponents?! It could depend on what the committee does with Penn State. So while overall conference strength isn't a part of their weekly discussions, it ultimately plays a role in determining the top four.
Saturday's games shook up the Power 5 pecking order, as Oklahoma State's thrilling win over Texas knocked the Longhorns out of the conversation for good; undefeated TCU asserted itself as the Big 12's leader; Clemson is now the ACC's lone undefeated team following its win over Syracuse; and the Pac-12 is now guaranteed a one-loss conference champion, at best.
With one Saturday remaining before selection committee reveals its first of six rankings on Nov. 1, here's how the Power 5 conferences are stacked up, based on their chances to send a team to the CFP.
1. SEC
Contenders: Georgia (7-0), Tennessee (7-0), Alabama (7-1)
Saturday's impact: LSU's win over Ole Miss handed the Rebels their first loss of the season and knocked them back in the SEC West race, which suddenly is more interesting because both teams still have to play one-loss Alabama. The Crimson Tide beat Mississippi State soundly on Saturday, and they have a bye week to prepare for back-to-back November trips to LSU and Ole Miss. Saturday was Alabama's last chance to make a first impression on the selection committee, as its bye week comes right before the first ranking. Will Alabama be the committee's best one-loss team without any wins against opponents currently ranked in the top 25? The Tide's Sept. 10 win at Texas took a hit on Saturday when the Longhorns suffered their third loss of the season.
What the league needs to get in: The question isn't if the SEC gets in, it's how many the SEC gets in. And it all hinges on Alabama winning the conference title, because a two-loss Tide squad is highly unlikely to finish in the top four as SEC runner-up. There are plenty of scenarios that can still play out, including Ole Miss or LSU winning the division. If Alabama doesn't win the SEC, though, the conference champion will likely be its lone top-four team. If Alabama does win the SEC, the one-loss conference runner-up has a realistic chance to join the Tide in the top four -- and the loser of the Tennessee-Georgia game could get consideration as a third team.
Most important game remaining: Tennessee at Georgia, Nov. 5. This game will determine the winner in the SEC East, while the loser must win out and hope the selection committee still deems it one of the four best teams in the country without a conference title. How this game unfolds also will impact how many SEC teams can finish in the top four. Barring an upset in the regular season, the winner will be on its way to the SEC title game, with a chance to reach the playoff, win or lose. If Tennessee wins the East, it would have defeated Alabama and Georgia during the regular season. If Georgia wins the East, it would have a top-five win against the Vols, which would help compensate for a loss to Bama in the SEC title game.
SEC playoff history: The SEC has never missed the playoff and has had two teams (Alabama and Georgia) finish in the top four together twice (2017 and 2021). Alabama has the most appearances (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021). LSU represented the league in 2019 and won the national title.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Georgia is second in the country (behind Ohio State), with a 66.9% chance to reach the playoff. Alabama has a 53.5% chance to reach the playoff, followed by Tennessee at 51%.
2. Big Ten
Contenders: Ohio State (7-0), Michigan (7-0)
Saturday's impact: Michigan had a bye week, but Ohio State overcame a slow start to hammer Iowa 54-10 and maintain its place among the top four contenders. This game reiterated what we've seen all season: The Buckeyes have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and not even Iowa's stingy defense could do anything about it in the second half. Ohio State is now the only FBS team this season to score on 100% of its red zone drives (31 touchdowns and five field goals in 36 drives). The selection committee doesn't ask teams to run up the score, but how they win matters, and Ohio State ultimately left no doubt it was the better team. The Buckeyes have now scored at least 49 points in all four of their Big Ten games this season, but only Rutgers (4-3) is above .500 and none of Ohio State's wins has come against a top-25 team. On Saturday, Ohio State did what the selection committee will be looking for: It took care of business against lesser competition.
What the league needs to get in: It needs Ohio State or Michigan to win the Big Ten and avoid an upset along the way. Ohio State travels to play Penn State on Saturday for what will be its most difficult game before hosting Michigan in the regular-season finale, and ESPN's FPI gives the Buckeyes an 83.1% chance to beat the Nittany Lions. It's not a game Ohio State should lose, but if Penn State somehow pulls off the upset, the Buckeyes would need to win out and have Penn State lose another game to win the East. That seems unlikely, as ESPN's FPI projects Penn State will win each of its remaining games. Ohio State and Michigan want to avoid a three-way tie with Penn State. If Ohio State loses to Penn State but beats Michigan and doesn't play in the Big Ten championship game because of a convoluted tiebreaker, the Buckeyes could still finish in the top four with Michigan by finishing as a one-loss team with a win over the eventual Big Ten champs.
Most important game remaining: Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 26. The winner of this game will likely win the Big Ten East and emerge as the conference's top playoff contender. The loser still has a chance to finish in the top four, but both teams have concerns about their schedule strength. Ohio State's season-opening win against Notre Dame has been significantly devalued now that the Fighting Irish have three losses; so without a win against rival Michigan, the Buckeyes' would need to hope a road win at Penn State impresses the committee, along with their prolific offense. Michigan's nonconference schedule, which included Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn, was one of the worst in the country. If Michigan doesn't beat Ohio State, its best win would also likely be against Penn State.
Big Ten playoff history: The Big Ten has been in the CFP in six of the past eight seasons. Michigan (2021), Ohio State (2014, 2016, 2019 and 2020) and Michigan State (2015) have each represented the league.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: No team in the country has a better chance to reach the CFP than Ohio State (81.6%).
3. Pac-12
Contenders: USC (6-1), Oregon (6-1), UCLA (6-1)
Saturday's impact: Oregon's resounding win over previously undefeated No. 9 UCLA catapulted the Ducks back into top-four contention, a long climb from the season opener during which they lost to Georgia in embarrassing fashion. Oregon's victory over UCLA is arguably more impressive than any opponent Oklahoma State, Ohio State or Michigan have defeated, and the Ducks' lone loss -- as bad as it was -- was to a top-four team that won the national title last season. Undefeated Clemson has more top-25 wins than Oregon, but none was as convincing as what the Ducks did Saturday. There are no undefeated teams remaining in the Pac-12 after Oregon stomped UCLA, putting pressure on any one of the three one-loss teams to run the table and finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champion. Oregon handled UCLA, but it still has tricky games remaining against Washington, Utah and Oregon State.
What the league needs to get in: A one-loss conference champion and possibly some help. The Ducks could make the best case of the league's three contenders if they run the table and win the conference because of wins against UCLA, Utah and possibly Southern California in the conference championship game. USC might have just one regular-season top-25 win, against UCLA. And UCLA needs to win out in convincing fashion to help overcome a nonconference schedule that includes Bowling Green, Alabama State and South Alabama.
If the SEC has two teams finish in the top four and the Big Ten champion is in, the fourth spot could be quite controversial. Several scenarios could help the Pac-12: The SEC and Big Ten each only have one team in; Clemson loses a game it shouldn't or loses in the ACC championship game; or the Big 12 has a two-loss conference champion.
Most important game remaining: USC at UCLA, Nov. 19. Both teams should still only have one loss heading into this game, and the loser will be eliminated. The Pac-12 scrapped its divisions, effective immediately, so the two best teams in the league are guaranteed to face each other.
Pac-12 playoff history: The Pac-12 is in the midst of a five-year CFP drought and has only had two playoff teams in the past eight years (Oregon in 2014 and Washington in 2016).
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: USC has an 9.6% chance to reach the playoff, followed by Oregon at 6.3% and UCLA at less than 0.1%.
4. ACC
Clemson switches quarterbacks in the second half and overcomes four turnovers to beat Syracuse 24-21.
Contenders: Clemson (8-0)
Saturday's impact: Clemson and the ACC avoided disaster, as the Tigers came back from an 11-point deficit and asserted themselves as the best team in the Atlantic Division. The Tigers are the league's only remaining undefeated team -- and its lone hope at the top four. Clemson's mistake-laden performance raised questions about whether it is truly one of the nation's elite teams despite its unblemished record. Clemson had four turnovers and was fortunate Syracuse couldn't convert any of them into points. Tigers coach Dabo Swinney opened the door to a quarterback controversy when he benched starter DJ Uiagalelei in favor of freshman Cade Klubnik toward the end of the third quarter. Uiagalelei had his worst game of the season throwing downfield on Saturday, as he completed 1 of 7 attempts for 41 yards with two interceptions on passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield. Klubnik only threw the ball four times, as Clemson played conservatively with its young quarterback, leaning heavily into its running game. Clemson deserves credit for finding a way to win, albeit in unconvincing fashion, but Syracuse did its part to help.
What the ACC needs to get in: It needs Clemson to stay undefeated, because even with a perfect record right now, the Tigers don't look like a top-four team. Not when compared with the likes of other undefeated contenders Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio State, Michigan and one-loss Alabama. If Clemson is in the same sphere, there's no reason it should lose during the regular season, as its remaining schedule includes Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami -- all unranked teams that each have at least three losses -- and two-loss rival South Carolina. It's hard to imagine an undefeated ACC champion being left out -- especially since Georgia and Tennessee still face each other, as do Ohio State and Michigan -- but one loss would put the ACC in serious jeopardy because it would be a bad loss against an unranked opponent. It also would call Clemson's résumé into question, including nonconference wins against Furman and Louisiana Tech. Syracuse entered Saturday's game at No. 14 in the Associated Press poll but with the No. 113-ranked schedule in the country, according to ESPN's FPI. The committee will evaluate Clemson's opponents -- and their opponents. Staying undefeated is the only way to avoid that debate.
Most important game remaining: The ACC championship game. Clemson might (but probably not) be able to overcome a regular-season loss if it still wins the ACC and there is chaos in the other Power 5 conference races. Without an ACC title, though, Clemson and the entire league will likely be shut out of the CFP for the second straight season. The selection committee would have to deem Clemson "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country, meaning there is no doubt in the room the Tigers are better than a Power 5 conference champion -- including the one they would have just lost to.
ACC playoff history: Last year was the only season the ACC missed the playoff. Florida State represented the league in 2014, the inaugural year, and Clemson finished in the top four every season from 2015 to 2020.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Clemson has a 61% chance to reach the playoff.
5. Big 12
Contenders: TCU (7-0), Oklahoma State (6-1)
Saturday's impact: Both teams kept their respective playoff hopes alive, and TCU remained the Big 12's only undefeated team with its win against No. 17 Kansas State. Back-to-back wins against top-15 teams Oklahoma State and K-State gave the Horned Frogs a much-needed résumé boost. The Horned Frogs further tightened their grip on first place in the conference standings while bumping two-loss K-State behind Oklahoma State. It's possible TCU and Oklahoma State face each other in a rematch in the Big 12 conference championship game.
What the league needs to get in: An undefeated or one-loss conference champion and possibly some help. The Big 12 is ranked here for two main reasons: doubts that TCU will win back-to-back November road games against Texas and Baylor; and better contenders in the other Power 5 conferences. The Big 12's concern is that the SEC and Big Ten both have two undefeated teams (though that will change when they play each other); Clemson is also undefeated; and the Pac-12 has three one-loss teams still in the mix. It's going to be more difficult for TCU to stay undefeated than it is for Clemson, which ends the regular season against Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami and South Carolina. TCU entered Saturday with the No. 80 strength of schedule, weighed down by nonconference games against Colorado, which fired its coach, FCS Tarleton and 3-4 SMU. The value of TCU's wins also has changed, as Oklahoma and Kansas are no longer top-25 teams. Oklahoma State's nonconference wins included 2-6 Central Michigan, 2-5 Arizona State (which also fired its coach) and 2-5 FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
Most important game remaining: The Big 12 championship game. TCU handed Oklahoma State its only loss of the season so far. A rematch in the Big 12 title game would help the Cowboys compensate for it while adding a Big 12 title and a win against a ranked opponent to their résumé.
Big 12 playoff history: Oklahoma has been the Big 12's only playoff representative, appearing four times in eight seasons (2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019).
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: TCU has a 7.6% chance to reach the playoff, while Oklahoma State has a 3.8% chance.