With the exception of 2019, when Alabama lost to LSU and rival Auburn during the regular season, coach Nick Saban has led the Tide to the College Football Playoff every season of its existence. So following his team's disappointing 52-49 loss to Tennessee on Saturday, it was no surprise to hear Saban immediately reset with the plan to return.
"We can accomplish every goal that we had at the start of the season," he said. "There's no room for error in the West."
No pressure.
The wild Week 7 was arguably the season's most entertaining Saturday to date, and it provided an exclamation point halfway through the season -- a reminder that even the most elite teams in the country shouldn't get too comfortable at the top. The undefeated No. 3 Vols (6-0) have played their way into the conversation, while No. 5 Clemson (7-0), No. 7 Ole Miss (7-0), No. 8 TCU (6-0) and No. 9 UCLA (6-0) are also still undefeated. There's a smattering of one-loss teams joining Alabama as legitimate contenders, including No. 10 Oregon (5-1), No. 11 Oklahoma State (5-1) and No. 12 USC (6-1). It's a colorful variety of jerseys in the mix, and there are still 10 teams with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, but the story is still unfolding.
The CFP selection committee doesn't release its first of six rankings until Nov. 1, when they'll have a much clearer picture after two full months of results. Not that there isn't anything to be gleaned from what we've seen so far. As Saban hits the reset button, so do we, looking back at how the CFP race has unfolded over the first half of the season. Here's what we've learned so far, the games that will shape the second half, conference power rankings and remaining questions for the committee ahead of Selection Day on Dec. 4.
What we've learned so far
• The SEC is deeper than Alabama and Georgia. It's also Tennessee and Ole Miss. Of course, Alabama and Ole Miss face each other Nov. 12, and Tennessee travels to Georgia on Nov. 5, so this will settle itself on the field. What this depth does, though, is bolster the SEC's chances of getting two teams in the top four (again), and creates the possibility of even three SEC teams. There's no limit to how many teams one league can earn semifinal spots. It also allows an entirely new scenario -- Tennessee and Ole Miss could play for the SEC title (gasp!).
• The Big Ten is still Ohio State and Michigan. Sorry, upstart Illinois, but until proven otherwise, it's the beasts in the East. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, there's a 48% chance Michigan and Ohio State will both be 11-0 heading into The Game on Thanksgiving weekend. Michigan has easily been one of the most consistent teams in the country, and Saturday's game against Penn State was the first real example of how good the Wolverines can be against ranked competition. It also revealed the Nittany Lions aren't ready for the top of their division, let alone the national spotlight. So why not Illinois? (Um, besides the loss to 3-4 Indiana?) No wins against ranked opponents. One win against a Power 5 team with a winning record (Minnesota). The Illini are at Michigan on Nov. 19. ESPN's FPI gives the Wolverines an 88% chance to win. If Illinois pulls off the upset, let's talk.
• The Pac-12 started strong but could have trouble sustaining it. The narrative surrounding the Pac-12 has been one of doom and gloom, especially on the heels of the summer news that USC and UCLA will join the Big Ten in 2024. While there's certainly merit to the concern, the league is living it up for now with the LA schools firmly in the playoff conversation, along with one-loss Oregon. UCLA is at Oregon on Saturday in a game that will either knock the Ducks out of the CFP, or damage UCLA's hopes. Defending conference champion Utah finally lived up to preseason expectations on Saturday in its win against USC, but that simultaneously hurt the Pac-12's playoff hopes. The Pac-12 has only appeared in the CFP twice in eight seasons. If it's going to return for the first time since 2016, the league needs an undefeated or one-loss champ. The problem for the Utes was the second loss to UCLA. While Utah can still win the conference, it's out of playoff contention.
• Clemson has reasserted itself. Through seven games last year, the Tigers were 4-3, quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei was struggling mightily, and Clemson wasn't even a consideration in the CFP race. The Tigers failed to make the playoff last year for the first time since 2014. With Clemson still undefeated and in the clear lead to win the ACC's Atlantic Division, the Tigers have put the ACC on their shoulders again. Clemson's problem is no longer its offense -- it's a deeper field of contenders with elite teams the selection committee could simply deem better.
The games that will shape Selection Day
• Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 26): This rivalry game should determine the winner of the Big Ten East, and in turn the league's top playoff contender. The outcome will also affect the Big Ten's chances of getting both teams in the CFP. If Michigan wins the East and the Big Ten, there's a better chance (67%) they both finish in the top four than if Ohio State were to win the Big Ten. In that scenario, there's a 52% chance both make it, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. At 11-1, Michigan's best win would either be at home against Penn State or Illinois. And with a nonconference schedule that included Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn, it would be hard for the committee to justify -- unless the Pac-12 and Big 12 champions both had two losses.
• Alabama at Ole Miss (Nov. 12): If the Tide loses again during the regular season, they're almost certainly done. No two-loss team has ever made the CFP. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but Alabama hasn't looked like Saban's semifinal teams of the past. The Tide has been plagued by mistakes, penalties and special teams blunders. ESPN's FPI currently has Alabama favored to win each of its remaining games, and the trip to Ole Miss is the most difficult remaining game on its schedule.
• Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 5): This one is gonna be bonkers. If the Vols find a way to beat Georgia and Alabama during the regular season, they will easily have the best résumé in the country. Not to mention they'll take the lead in the SEC East and be three (easy?!) wins away from playing for the SEC title (vs. unranked Missouri, South Carolina and Vandy). According to ESPN's FPI, Tennessee already has the best résumé in the FBS. The average top 25 team would only have a 10% chance to go 6-0 against the Vols' schedule.
• Syracuse at Clemson (Oct. 22): This has turned into a critical Atlantic Division game, and arguably the most difficult remaining opponent on Clemson's schedule (that speaks volumes about where Notre Dame is right now). If Clemson loses, Syracuse will take the lead in the division, and Clemson will need the Orange to lose twice. That might not happen, as ESPN's FPI gives Syracuse at least a 55% chance to win each of its remaining games except Nov. 19 at Wake Forest. If Clemson doesn't win this game -- and, in turn, the ACC -- the entire league's playoff hopes will nosedive, unless Syracuse miraculously finishes undefeated. Even then, it would depend on what happens in the other Power 5 conferences, which also all still have at least one undefeated team. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, this is one of the five remaining games with the biggest impact on the playoff race.
Three results that will resonate with the committee
• Ohio State 21, Notre Dame 10: This was arguably the biggest game of Labor Day weekend, and it quickly lost its luster after Notre Dame lost to Marshall, starting off 0-2 under first-year coach Marcus Freeman. Following Notre Dame's stunning loss to Stanford on Saturday, the win has continued to be devalued, and if Ohio State loses to Michigan, this will continue to matter -- especially if Ohio State is competing with USC and Clemson for a coveted spot, as they all will have faced the Irish.
• Alabama 20, Texas 19: This can continue to help both teams. The only plausible scenario for a two-loss Tide to get into the CFP is if it loses a close thriller in the SEC championship game, and the other Power 5 conference champions look mediocre. If Alabama doesn't win the SEC, and Texas wins the Big 12 title, the selection committee could use this road win to help justify a top-four finish for the Tide. If Texas runs the table to win the Big 12, the committee wouldn't penalize the Longhorns for a close, early loss to the potential SEC champs, especially after star QB Quinn Ewers went out with a clavicle injury.
• Georgia 49, Oregon 3: Since losing its season opener, Oregon has reeled off five straight wins and is again a top-10 team. If Georgia doesn't win the SEC, its convincing win against the Ducks will help its case for the top four. If Oregon beats UCLA on Saturday and wins the Pac-12, it could be even more valuable than it appeared in Week 1.
Three questions for the committee
• How many teams can the SEC get in? With three undefeated teams remaining, plus one-loss Alabama, the SEC has a 99% chance to send a team to the playoff, and a 71% chance to send multiple teams. If Alabama wins the SEC title game over an undefeated East champ -- presumably the winner of the Nov. 5 battle between Georgia and Tennessee -- two teams seems likely.
How about three teams?
That might be a stretch, but here's how it can theoretically happen: If the scenario above plays itself out, there could be three SEC teams finishing the season with one loss. ESPN's FPI projects an 11% chance of that happening. In this scenario, Alabama would be in as a one-loss conference champ. Georgia and Tennessee would finish as one-loss teams with top-four wins: Georgia over the Vols, and Tennessee over Bama. The selection committee chooses all three, deeming Tennessee and Georgia "unequivocally" among the four best teams in the country -- meaning there is no doubt in the room that even without a conference title, they are better teams than the other Power 5 conference champions.
• Who's No. 1? This will eventually play itself out, but the committee's debate between the Big Ten and SEC conference champions will be fascinating, and there could be some jockeying for the top spot as their respective conference races unfold. The first ranking comes out before Tennessee and Georgia face each other Nov. 5. Tennessee could a make case for the top spot in the initial ranking, as it has the best win and the best résumé in the country. Undefeated Georgia has a better defense than the Vols, and the convincing win against Oregon remains impressive. Undefeated Ohio State has the best offense in the country but is No. 7 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric behind Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan, Georgia, Alabama -- and even TCU. As that changes, so will the seeding, which matters because the committee will not put the No. 1 team at a geographic disadvantage in a semifinal. The semifinals this year are the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl and the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.
• Can a two-loss Texas get in? It would absolutely be considered -- and the committee's written protocol requiring it to consider injuries to key players would be tested. Texas' two losses are by a combined four points, and Ewers was injured in the first loss -- he suffered a sprained joint in his shoulder against Alabama -- and he didn't play in the Sept. 24 overtime loss at Texas Tech. His backup, Hudson Card, was also playing on a tender ankle in that game. The Longhorns are undefeated with Ewers in the lineup, though, and they would have won nine straight games since the second loss, including the Big 12 title. According to ESPN's FPI, the Longhorns have a 19% chance to finish 11-2. If they do, their playoff chances increase to 37%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Longhorns have the highest chance of any current two-loss teams, well above Utah (1.4%) and LSU (.3%).
Conference playoff power rankings
1. SEC
No league is deeper right now, with four true contenders in Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss. What separates the SEC is that it has elite teams in both divisions this year.
2. Big Ten
With Ohio State and Michigan leading the way, the Big Ten champion is as close to a lock as you can get for the CFP.
3. Pac-12
It's ranked ahead of the ACC because it runs deeper right now, but UCLA still faces Oregon and USC. After entering Week 7 with a 24% chance to send a team to the playoff, the Pac-12 now has a 15% chance, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
4. ACC
It's Clemson or bust. Sorry, Syracuse, but you've currently got the No. 114 schedule strength, which includes a win over ... winless Wagner of the FCS. Even if Syracuse runs the table, including a win at Clemson on Saturday and the ACC title, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Syracuse a 46.6% chance to make the playoff.
5. Big 12
TCU is the lone undefeated team remaining, but one-loss Oklahoma State and two-loss Texas aren't done yet. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives the league a 15% chance to send a team to the CFP.
Teams to watch in the second half
USC: The Trojans' most difficult game remaining is Nov. 19 at rival UCLA, but ESPN's FPI projects USC as having at least a 61% chance of winning each of its remaining games.
UCLA: If the Bruins are a legitimate top-four team, they can't go 0-2 against Oregon and USC.
Ole Miss: Let's see if it can survive Saturday's road trip to LSU, before a date with Alabama Nov. 12.
Oklahoma State: Somebody will be eliminated from the CFP mix in Saturday's battle between the Cowboys and Longhorns.
TCU: The undefeated Frogs have some wiggle room, but if they're going to be taken seriously as a top-four team, they've got to win on the road in November at Texas and Baylor.
Texas: The Longhorns are in must-win and Hail Mary mode, but history could be made as the playoff's first two-loss team.