Deep breaths, Alabama fans, deep breaths.
In 2014, when No. 8 Ohio State lost at home to unranked Virginia Tech in one of the most stunning upsets of the season, the first lesson of the College Football Playoff era began: Don't eliminate any one-loss Power 5 teams that still have a chance to win their conference.
As devastating and embarrassing as the loss to the Hokies seemed at the time, Ohio State went on to win 13 straight games -- including the national title. So yes, the pressure to win out is immense, as no two-loss team has ever made the CFP, but the sport's top prize remains attainable for Alabama, USC, Oklahoma State and Penn State in spite of Saturday's losses, and Oregon, which had a bye.
In fact, they're in good company.
Twenty of the 32 teams that have made the CFP since 2014 have had a loss. Going undefeated is not the norm, though 12 teams have reached the CFP with perfect records, including three undefeated teams in both 2018 and 2019.
The selection committee evaluates everything -- how teams lose, where they lost, when they lost, how competitive they were in the loss, what kind of competition it was against. The committee also looks at who those teams beat to compensate for it. Considering those factors, these are the best one-loss teams, ranked in order of which ones have the best chance to still reach the CFP:
1. Alabama (6-1)
Saturday's result: Tennessee 52, Alabama 49
Analyzing the loss: This was one of the wildest, most entertaining games of the season, filled with both blunders and dazzling performances by both teams. It won't keep Alabama out of the CFP, but the Tide will keep themselves out of the top four if they continues to make mistakes and rack up costly penalties. Alabama was penalized 17 times for 130 yards, the most accepted penalties in a game under Nick Saban. It was also a trying day for Alabama's defense, which surrendered a whopping 52 points, the most in a game since 1907. Alabama trailed by as many as 18 points in the first half, and yet still was in a position to win. The selection committee would consider it was a close loss on the road in a prime-time night game against what should be one of their highest-ranked teams, but they will also see a multitude of mistakes Saban-coached teams don't typically make.
Playoff path: Because this was a crossover game, the loss to Tennessee doesn't hurt Alabama's chances of winning the SEC West. If the Tide can finish as one-loss SEC champions, they're in again -- and at this rate, they could get a second chance at Tennessee in the SEC championship game if the Vols win the East. If they don't win the SEC, though, Alabama is likely done. Consider this scenario: Georgia wins the East and beats Alabama in the SEC championship game. Tennessee finishes with one loss -- to Georgia -- and doesn't play in the conference title game, but has the head-to-head win over Bama. The committee could put both Georgia and Tennessee in its top four, shutting the two-loss Tide out entirely. It's also possible the Vols just beat the eventual SEC champs and finish in the top four with Alabama -- either as the SEC runner-up, or as a one-loss team that doesn't win its division (though in that case the Vols would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Georgia). Alabama is not done, but it also doesn't have any margin for error, and the remaining schedule isn't easy. Alabama hosts Mississippi State on Saturday, followed by back-to-back road trips against LSU and Ole Miss.
2. USC (6-1)
Saturday's result: Utah 43, USC 42
Analyzing the loss: It was a fitting end to arguably the most thrilling Saturday of the season, and it came on the road at night against the reigning Pac-12 champs. It can be overcome, but there were multiple setbacks Saturday night beyond the score. USC quarterback Caleb Williams was pressured the most he has been all season. Star receiver Jordan Addison left the game in the third quarter with an apparent lower-leg injury. The selection committee considers injuries to key players, but it's unclear how much of a factor it will be. The defense had no answer for Utah quarterback Cameron Rising and Dalton Kincaid. Remember in 2018, though, when Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma team finished in the top four with the nation's best offense and the No. 89-ranked defense.
Playoff path: USC needs to finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champ, beating rival UCLA soundly along the way, and wow the committee with the Williams show and his surrounding talent. The key is to do it against better competition. USC has yet to defeat a ranked opponent and might have only one more opportunity (No. 11 UCLA) during the regular season. It didn't help USC that Notre Dame lost to Stanford. With nonconference wins against Rice (3-2) and Fresno State (1-4), USC's résumé needs help, and the Trojans were counting on the Irish for a boost. Remember, USC could be compared with another team on this list -- Oklahoma State -- if the Cowboys go on to win the Big 12. It would help USC tremendously if the Big 12 had a two-loss champ, and/or Clemson also stumbled along the way to the ACC title.
3. Oregon (5-1)
Saturday's result: Bye week
Lone loss: Georgia 49, Oregon 3
Analyzing the loss: It was ugly. Bo Nix threw two interceptions that resulted in Georgia touchdowns, and the Bulldogs scored on their first seven possessions. They didn't punt until the fourth quarter. The committee could look at this game as evidence of how far Oregon is from a top-four team. There's no sugarcoating it, but when the loss happened and who it was to (the defending national champions) might matter. It was the season opener and Dan Lanning's first game as a head coach. Ever. It was also the first start in the program for Nix, who transferred from Auburn. Since then, the Ducks have reeled off five straight wins, scoring more than 40 points in every game.
Playoff path: It starts Saturday against No. 11 UCLA, and the Ducks had the bye week to prepare for it. If Oregon can finish as a one-loss Pac-12 champion, it will be considered for a semifinal spot, but the Ducks will need the committee to rank some of their opponents. Oregon doesn't face USC during the regular season, but could play the Trojans for the conference title. USC, UCLA and Utah are currently ranked in The Associated Press Top 25, while BYU has fallen out. Oregon has to win with style to convince the committee it has improved enough to close the crater-sized gap between the Ducks and a sure-fire top-four team.
4. Oklahoma State (5-1)
TCU takes home the overtime win vs. Oklahoma State as Kendre Miller scores the touchdown.
Saturday's result: TCU 43, Oklahoma State 40 (2 OT)
Analyzing the loss: This game was unfolding simultaneously with the instant classic at Tennessee and was equally as entertaining -- but the loss will significantly hurt the Cowboys' playoff chances. Oklahoma State squandered a 14-point lead because the defense couldn't stop TCU quarterback Max Duggan, and the offense didn't score a touchdown again until overtime. Oklahoma State was held to 32 total yards on 16 plays in the fourth quarter, including three punts and an interception. It was too little, too late, but the close loss on the road against a ranked, undefeated opponent was at least respectable.
Playoff path: The loss further exacerbates the Cowboys' weak nonconference schedule, which could be the ultimate dagger. With wins against Central Michigan (2-5), Arizona State (2-4) and FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-4), Oklahoma State needs to win the Big 12, look better than other Power 5 conference champions in the process and hope the selection committee has several of its league opponents (Kansas? Texas? K-State?) ranked. Without the regular-season win against TCU, Oklahoma State doesn't have any wins against current top 25 teams. The ideal scenario would be for Oklahoma State and TCU to meet again in the Big 12 title game -- a realistic scenario -- to give the Cowboys a second chance to impress the committee when it matters most.
5. Penn State (5-1)
Saturday's result: Michigan 41, Penn State 17
Analyzing the loss: This is going to be extremely difficult to overcome, because while Penn State can technically still win the East, it didn't look good enough to. Penn State needs to improve drastically up front on both sides if it's going to convince the selection committee it's top-four material. Michigan controlled the game from the start, as Penn State had more touchdowns (two) than it had first downs (one) in the first half. The Nittany Lions' defense couldn't slow down Michigan's running game, which racked up 397 yards behind jaw-dropping performances from Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. With the exception of two big plays in the first half, Penn State's offense was anemic. Yes, this was a difficult road trip in front of more than 110,000, and against what should be one of the selection committee's best teams, but Penn State wasn't competitive.
Playoff path: The Nittany Lions have to beat Ohio State and hope Michigan loses twice to win the Big Ten's East division, which seems far-fetched based on what we've seen from all three of those teams to date. It's still possible they could finish in a three-way tie with one loss, which would lead to a complicated conference tiebreaker. ESPN's Football Power Index gives Ohio State an 80.2% chance to win at Penn State on Oct. 29 -- right before the committee's first ranking is revealed Nov. 1.