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College football bowl projections after Week 7: Playoff, New Year's Six matchups

Wide receivers Jalin Hyatt and Bru McCoy celebrate a touchdown during the Tennessee's thrilling win over Alabama. Donald Page/Getty Images

A weekend of matchups with big-time implications lived up to the hype, with Tennessee's thrilling win over Alabama, TCU's overtime victory over Oklahoma State and Utah's narrow win over USC leading the way.

With those games and others shaking up the very top of the college football pecking order, the impact was felt throughout the bowl picture.

ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach break it all down with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP matchups and which teams helped and hurt their causes the most over the weekend.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Clemson

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Tennessee

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: For most of the season, there has been a straightforward formula to project the CFP: Georgia, Alabama, Big Ten champion (Michigan), one other. But with Alabama's loss to Tennessee, that all goes out the window -- and with it goes the assumption that there will be two SEC teams in the CFP. The possibility of that happening remains very good, of course, but the default position this week will be defer to undefeated conference leaders.

With that, here is the menu from which to choose:

SEC: Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss; Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan; ACC: Clemson, Syracuse; Big 12: TCU; Pac-12: UCLA.

Tennessee made a strong case, but Georgia still gets the nod in the SEC (the teams play each other Nov. 5). The hardest decision might be between Michigan and Ohio State. The national consensus is Ohio State, but Michigan's performance against Penn State on Saturday was more impressive than anything Ohio State has on its résumé. Clemson has the easiest path of the others and is the most likely to stay unbeaten, leaving TCU and UCLA to consider for the final spot. TCU gets the nod this week after its big win against Oklahoma State, but UCLA can make a statement with a win at Oregon on Saturday.

Schlabach: Tennessee's exciting 52-49 upset of Alabama shook up my top four teams again. Defending national champion Georgia remains No. 1, after shutting out Vanderbilt 55-0 at home. The Bulldogs surrendered only 10 first downs and 150 yards of offense. Ohio State, which had an open date, moves up to No. 2 after Alabama's loss. The Volunteers are my No. 3 team after beating the Crimson Tide for the first time in 16 tries. Tennessee is as explosive as anyone on offense, but its defense has plenty of work to do. Clemson is my No. 4 team after knocking off Florida State 34-28 on the road. The Tigers will face unbeaten Syracuse (did I really just type that?) at home Saturday. I also seriously considered Michigan, TCU, Ole Miss and UCLA for the fourth spot.

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0:45
TCU knocks off Oklahoma State on OT TD, celebration ensues

TCU takes home the overtime win vs. Oklahoma State as Kendre Miller scores the touchdown.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Ole Miss

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: TCU vs. Alabama

Bonagura's team that helped itself the most:

Tennessee: Scoring 52 points against Alabama is a heckuva way to make a statement. Even though Alabama committed 17 penalties, no one should come away from watching that game thinking Tennessee wouldn't move the ball at will if the teams played again. The biggest issue now for Tennessee is that it's in the same division as Georgia. If the Vols beat Georgia, that would put them in an decent spot to reach the playoff even if they went on to lose the SEC title game. Good times in Knoxville.

Schlabach's team that helped itself the most:

TCU: It's time to give the Horned Frogs some serious love. They have taken down Oklahoma, Kansas and Oklahoma State the past three weeks and are the lone unbeaten team in the Big 12. TCU rallied from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to knock off Oklahoma State 43-40 in two overtimes Saturday. The Horned Frogs piled up 510 yards of offense against what had been a pretty good Pokes defense. Quarterback Max Duggan is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. He's completing nearly 70% of his pass attempts for 1,591 yards with 16 touchdowns and one interception. The Horned Frogs get another test at home against No. 17 Kansas State on Saturday.

Schlabach's team whose stock took the biggest hit:

Alabama: There were plenty of options this week, as Alabama, Penn State, USC and Oklahoma State all fell for the first time this season. I'll go with the Crimson Tide, who continue to trip over themselves with silly turnovers and penalties. They're shockingly undisciplined and soft on defense. They had 17 penalties for 130 yards against Tennessee, the most penalties ever accepted against a Nick Saban team at Alabama (and they had 15 against Texas earlier this season). The Tide surrendered 567 yards to the Vols, including 385 passing. Tennessee's 52 points were the most Alabama had surrendered since 1907, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Ouch.


Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Utah vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon


Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UAB vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Bowling Green

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: SMU vs. Rice

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. San Diego State

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Boise State

LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Ball State
Schlabach: South Alabama vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Mississippi State

Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Wyoming

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rice vs. Marshall
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee State

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wyoming vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Middle Tennessee State vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern

Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Troy vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. UCF

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Liberty vs. SMU
Schlabach: California vs. Louisiana

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Louisville
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Georgia Tech

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Air Force

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Buffalo

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UNLV vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Troy

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Michigan State

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. UCF
Schlabach: UAB vs. Tulane

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Iowa

Dec. 28

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Duke vs. Houston
Schlabach: Miami vs. Houston

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Schlabach: Kansas vs. South Carolina

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: NC State vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Utah

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Texas vs. Texas A&M


Matchups we'd be most excited to see:

Schlabach: Texas vs. Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl. The in-state rivals haven't played each other since 2011, so we can only dream of the days when they'll again be battling on a regular basis in the SEC. Let's get a sneak preview in the Texas Bowl. There's nothing more Texas than that.

Bonagura: Give me Texas and Tennessee in the Sugar Bowl. Two historic powers that have been absent from national relevance for some time. Fun to watch. It's also possible that subconsciously the draw of seeing two orange-clad teams on the field is playing a role here.


Dec. 29

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Minnesota

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Kansas State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. USC
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. USC

Bonagura's team whose stock took the biggest hit:

USC: Had the Trojans run the table, they would have made the playoff. That was never likely, but it was possible. After losing to Utah, 43-42, the Trojans' ambition is more about the Rose Bowl. Runner-up: Oklahoma State, which can still claim to be undefeated in regulation.


Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Maryland
Schlabach: NC State vs. Purdue

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Oregon State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Florida

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Ball State

Dec. 31

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Arkansas

Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Kentucky

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Penn State vs. LSU