Goodbye, James Madison. You aren't the first to lose your way in Statesboro. We hardly knew ye, Coastal Carolina. (Actually, we know you pretty well by now, don't we?) Thought you had it, Oklahoma State. Never really thought you had it, Penn State. I never really did trust your defense, USC. Goodbye ... Alabama?
Wait, hold on, Bama lost?
Things got real in Week 7, as the roster of college football unbeatens was cut by 40% from a Fabulous 15 down to a Nasty Nine. And since the games only get harder from here (with the exception of Tennessee going from playing Bama to UT Martin, anyway), there are likely more losses on the near horizon. We get another battle of undefeateds this weekend when Clemson hosts Syracuse, while three other unblemished teams play games that could be deemed relative toss-ups. The Nasty Nine could be down to the Superb Six or so very soon.
Let's rank the unbeatens!
(By the way, let's give a quick hat tip to Colorado. While we know the number of college football unbeatens will slowly drift down toward zero, the Buffaloes' overtime win over Cal on Saturday assured that we will not have any FBS teams finishing with zero wins this season. Good. Fielding a football team is really difficult, and no one deserves to go winless. Everybody should get to celebrate at least once.)
9. Syracuse
SP+ and FPI rankings: 38th and 24th, respectively
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.1% (last week: 1.3%)
What they did in Week 7: Defeated No. 15 NC State 24-9. An increasingly impressive Orange defense was too much for the Wolfpack and backup quarterback Jack Chambers, and an increasingly impressive Orange offense averaged 7.2 yards per play against an awesome State defense. The former wasn't particularly surprising; the latter was. Only a pair of Garrett Shrader interceptions kept this one close. Impressive performance.
Week 8 opponent: At Clemson (SP+ win probability: 30%)
Biggest strength: We don't yet know how good they are. I grant that this is a weird strength, but go with me on this one: The Orange were projected 64th in SP+ this season but have overachieved SP+ projections in five of six games. The offense ranks 17th in average points per drive, and the defense ranks 10th in average points allowed per drive.
The schedule has undoubtedly been rather light for a power-conference team -- their strength-of-schedule ranking, per SP+, is still just 87th, and they've beaten just one top-40 team -- but we don't yet know their ceiling midway through the season. They've been good at pretty much everything.
Biggest weakness: The run defense isn't good enough. Syracuse ranks 95th in rushing success rate allowed this season and 99th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), and the Orange haven't faced anyone who can actually run yet. But in their next four games, they face Clemson's Will Shipley, Notre Dame's Audric Estime, Pitt's Israel Abanikanda, and Florida State's Treshaun Ward and Trey Benson. The Cuse pass defense is stellar, but the Orange might be struggling to force teams to pass in the near future.
8. TCU
SP+ and FPI rankings: 13th and 13th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 3.7% (last week: 0.8%)
What they did in Week 7: Defeated No. 8 Oklahoma State 43-40 (2OT). The Horned Frogs overcame both an early 24-7 deficit and the ugliest uniform selection in their arsenal (and maybe in the entire Power Five). They scored two touchdowns in the final 10 minutes of regulation, then won in overtime on a Kendre Miller plunge.
Week 8 opponent: Kansas State (SP+ win probability: 59%)
Biggest strength: Explosiveness. The Horned Frogs average 7.2 gains of 20-plus yards per game (fourth in FBS) and 3.8 of 30-plus (third). They can house one at any time via either run (Miller and Emari Demercado: 6.5 yards per carry) or pass (Quentin Johnson and Taye Barber: 15.9 yards per catch). Add to that a layer of safety -- they are excellent in the red zone, and Max Duggan has thrown one interception in 167 passes -- and you've got one of the most relentless offenses in the country.
Biggest weakness: Opponents' explosiveness. If there's a root cause behind Sonny Dykes' past November letdowns -- Dykes' SMU teams were 21-3 before Nov. 1 and 4-8 after it from 2019 to 2021 -- defensive breakdowns were a big part of it. We might see the same thing here.
Few teams have faced the offensive quality that TCU has this season. The Horned Frogs' past four opponents (SMU, Oklahoma, Kansas and Oklahoma State) all rank 21st or better in offensive SP+, and that should be taken into account. But there are more good offenses on the horizon, and the fact that TCU is allowing 5.5 gains per game of 20-plus yards (113th) and 2.3 of 30-plus (105th) has to ring some alarm bells.
7. UCLA
SP+ and FPI rankings: 8th and 26th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 19.8% (last week: 16.8%)
What they did in Week 7: Idle. Chip Kelly's Bruins got a well-timed week off ahead of the biggest game of the season, a clash with fellow Pac-12 unbeaten Oregon.
Week 8 opponent: At Oregon (SP+ win probability: 47%)
Biggest strength: Efficiency and the "big run." At their best, Kelly's old Oregon teams were masters of the TD-turnover-TD combination. Their relentless offense would move the ball with efficiency and tempo, and even if teams kept up for a while, at some point their quarterback would start pressing and make a mistake. In the span of what felt like seconds, a 7-point Oregon lead would become a 21-point Oregon lead.
UCLA hasn't yet proved it has the same ceiling as Kelly's Ducks, but it's getting there. The Bruins rank fifth nationally in success rate and eighth in points per drive; Zach Charbonnet is averaging 7.1 yards per carry, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is completing 75% of his passes. The defense is taking a patented bend-don't-break approach, but the Bruins pounce on mistakes, and it's creating huge runs -- 38-0 vs. Bowling Green, 24-0 vs. Colorado, 33-6 vs. Washington, 14-3 and 21-7 vs. Utah.
Biggest weakness: The defense indeed bends quite a bit. The Bruins are excellent at big-play prevention, and the god of turnovers has been their friend, but they rank 94th in success rate allowed and 68th in yards allowed per drive. A bend-don't-break routine can work brilliantly as long as you're excellent in the red zone, but UCLA ranks 108th in red zone touchdown rate allowed. If teams don't help the Bruins out by pressing and making mistakes, they are probably going to keep up with them on the scoreboard. (Oregon's offense: very good at efficiency and mistake avoidance thus far.)
6. Ole Miss
SP+ and FPI rankings: 7th and 8th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 7.4% (last week: 6.4%)
What they did in Week 7: Defeated Auburn 48-34. The Rebels bolted to a 21-0 lead but took their foot off the gas -- as they are wont to do at times -- and ended up in a track meet. Gaining 578 yards on a solid Auburn defense: good. Allowing 441 (at 6.8 per play) to a previously moribund Auburn offense: not so much.
Week 8 opponent: At LSU (SP+ win probability: 63%)
Biggest strength: No obvious statistical weakness. Against an admittedly backloaded schedule -- the Rebels beat the only SP+ top-30 team they've faced, but they've got four more on the way -- they rank 14th in offensive SP+, 16th in defensive SP+ and 11th in special teams. They've won with offense (48-34 over Auburn), and they've won with defense (22-19 over Kentucky).
This should go without saying, but if you're staying on schedule better, making more big plays, winning the field position and turnover battles and winning in the red zone, you're not offering your opponent any paths to victory. That's been the Ole Miss M.O. thus far ... although Auburn's sudden offensive outburst was a bit alarming.
Biggest weakness: Funks. Troy outscored the Rebs 10-7 over a 36-minute span. Georgia Tech held them to seven points over 31 minutes. Tulsa outscored them 14-7 over their game's first 15 minutes and 13-0 over the final 31. Kentucky outscored them 19-8 over the final 45. Vanderbilt led 20-10 after 29 minutes. Auburn responded to a 21-0 run with a 24-7 run.
Ole Miss' relentless tempo means both great and terrible runs can last a little while. But considering what's left on their schedule, the funks are alarming.
5. Clemson
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 7th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 17.1% (last week: 12.1%)
What they did in Week 7: Defeated Florida State 34-28. As they have done countless times in the Dabo Swinney era, the Tigers nailed the so-called middle eight, outscoring the Seminoles 17-0 over the last four minutes of the first half and first four of the second half, then cruised until a late FSU run made things interesting.
Week 8 opponent: Syracuse (SP+ win probability: 70%)
Biggest strength: The margins. Middle eight perfection aside, Clemson doesn't really have any particularly elite traits. The Tigers' offense has rebounded nicely from last season's collapse, but they're 25th in offensive SP+ and not, like, fifth. Meanwhile, their defense is still good but only 19th.
They're close-game masters, however -- 2-0 in one-score finishes this season, 31-7 since 2012 -- and a lot of it comes down to the proverbial "little things." The Tigers score touchdowns on 74% of their red zone trips (18th in FBS) and allow TDs on only 50% (24th). They create more turnover opportunities (and, therefore, turnovers) and force more three-and-outs than opponents do, and they reap the field-position rewards (15th in average starting field position). They average 6.4 yards to go on third downs (16th), and opponents are at 8.1 (24th). They rig the game in their favor and wait you out.
Biggest weakness: A lack of elite traits. I guess I already gave that one away, huh? The teams above Clemson on this list have at least one elite unit to lean on, probably more. The Tigers' game management, discipline and timely playmaking are all outstanding, and most of the country should aspire to it. But their limitations will still probably render them something short of genuine national title contenders.
4. Tennessee
SP+ and FPI rankings: 5th and 6th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 14.9% (last week: 4.3%)
What they did in Week 7: Defeated No. 1 Alabama 52-49. Maybe you heard?
Week 8 opponent: UT Martin (SP+ win probability: 99%)
Biggest strength: This ridiculous offense. Alabama has been involved in track meets before, but only one team has scored 50 on Saban's Tide: Josh Heupel's Vols.
They're second in offensive SP+ and second in points per drive. They're sixth in success rate and almost perfect in the red zone. Hendon Hooker has a shot at becoming only the sixth power-conference quarterback in the past 20 years to produce a season with 4,000 passing yards and 600 rushing yards. (Other power-conference QBs who did it: Robert Griffin III, Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota, Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray.)
The run game could produce a few more big plays, but that's nitpicking. Heupel has nearly the perfect personnel for what he wants to do offensively, and Tennessee will have a shot in every remaining game because of it.
Biggest weakness: The defense doesn't do itself favors. With a ridiculously successful offense that plays at the fastest possible tempo, there comes a risk of wearing your defense out. It's a trade Heupel is comfortable making, but it sure would help if the defense stopped letting opponents off the hook. The Vols force three-and-outs just 23% of the time (111th in FBS) and rank 93rd in success rate on passing downs. They give up too many easy completions, and the pass rush doesn't get home enough. There's only one elite offense left on Tennessee's regular-season schedule (Georgia's), but the Vols are playing with fire in giving opponents so many chances to score points.
3. Michigan
SP+ and FPI rankings: 4th and 4th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 18.9% (last week: 16.7%)
What they did in Week 7: Defeated No. 10 Penn State 41-17. In the weekend's biggest show of force, the Wolverines rushed for 418 yards and four touchdowns against the previously unbeaten Nittany Lions and scored the game's final 25 points.
Week 8 opponent: Idle. A Week 9 visit from rival Michigan State is up next.
Biggest strength: They move forward, and you move backward. Michigan reached the CFP last year by dominating in the trenches when it counted the most; the Wolverines might be even better in that regard this year. They produce a 57.0% rushing success rate (fourth in FBS) and allow a 34.7% success rate (13th). Their offensive line averages just 2.6 penalties per game (13th). J.J. McCarthy takes sacks on just 3.2% of his dropbacks, and the Wolverines sack opposing quarterbacks on 9.1% of theirs (ninth in FBS).
In their past three conference games against top-15 opponents -- Ohio State and Iowa last year, PSU on Saturday -- Michigan openly declared, "We're going to run until you stop us." No one could. The Wolverines averaged 309 rushing yards (7.1 per carry) with 14 rushing touchdowns in those games. Total domination.
Biggest weakness: Strange red zone failures. One would think that one of the best, most physical rushing teams would automatically be awesome in the red zone, where generating a push on opponents becomes even more valuable. Not so! Michigan ranks 51st in red zone touchdown rate (67%), 59th in goal-to-go situations (78%). The only reason Penn State was close for even a half was that the Wolverines settled for three first-half field goals. Against Ohio State or whichever team they might play in a hypothetical playoff game, touchdowns are a must.
2. Georgia
SP+ and FPI rankings: 2nd and 3rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 28.1% (last week: 30.8%)
What they did in Week 7: Defeated Vanderbilt 55-0. Against a Commodores team that had scored at least 25 points in five of its first six games, the Dawgs offered not a single second's worth of hope, scoring on nine of 10 drives and allowing Vandy onto their side of the 50 just twice.
Week 8 opponent: Idle. Next up in Week 9 is the annual trip to Jacksonville to face Florida.
Biggest strength: The defense remains impossible. Let's put it this way: We freaked out when Georgia allowed 22 points twice (to Kent State and Missouri). The national scoring average is about 28. Oh no, the Georgia defense was merely above average twice!
Georgia ranks second in points allowed per drive, third in yards allowed per drive, fifth in average gains of 20-plus allowed per game, sixth in three-and-out rate, seventh in success rate allowed and, just in case you actually work your way down the field against them, third in red zone touchdown rate allowed. The Dawgs have given up a big run play here and there, and the pass rush is nowhere close to last year's standards. But with how well they flow to the ball and tackle, disruption isn't quite as important.
Biggest weakness: Passing explosiveness. The Dawgs are ruthlessly efficient on offense, leading the nation with 138 gains of double-digit yards. But only 13 of those plays gained 30-plus (per game, they rank 75th) and only three have gained 40-plus (120th). After averaging 15.5 yards per completion last season, Stetson Bennett is averaging only 12.5 this year.
Having a relentless run game and the best tight end duo in the country (Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington) means Georgia doesn't find itself in need of deep passes all that often. But in the Dawgs' only tight game of the season, Missouri dared them to stretch the field and they couldn't do it. Future opponents Tennessee, Mississippi State and Kentucky are all pretty aggressive on defense; will Georgia be able to make them pay?
1. Ohio State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 1st and 1st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 38.3% (last week: 34.6%)
What they did in Week 7: Idle. After a run of five straight games with at least 45 points, the Buckeyes' offense was able to catch its collective breath before facing what might be the stingiest defense in the country.
Week 8 opponent: Iowa (SP+ win probability: 90%)
Biggest strength: A perfect offense. It's jarring to realize that the Buckeyes are leading the nation in scoring offense despite having been at full strength for barely a single play this season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, presumed to be the best receiver in college football in 2022, has caught only four balls in parts of two games. Backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams have both missed time with injury, as has veteran receiver Julian Fleming.
Here's where otherworldly recruiting pays off. New stars Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. have combined for 1,191 yards and 15 touchdowns in six games. Projected over a potential 15-game season, C.J. Stroud could end up with 4,500 passing yards and 60 touchdown passes. Ohio State running backs -- whoever's healthy at the time -- are averaging 209 yards per game at 6.4 yards per carry. The Buckeyes rank first in success rate and first in explosive plays of 30-plus yards, and just in case someone forces them to plod down the field, they rank first in red zone touchdown rate. It's patently unfair.
Biggest weakness: We might not know whether the defense is fixed until it's too late. New defensive coordinator Jim Knowles was tasked with sealing up a leaky defense that gave up a combined 566 rushing yards in two losses last season. This year's numbers look great -- ninth in points allowed per drive, fifth in success rate allowed, seventh in rushing success rate allowed -- but the Buckeyes haven't faced an offense that ranks better than 46th in offensive SP+, and the past three top-75 offenses they faced each scored at least 20 points (though some of that came in garbage time).
The first top-20 offense on the schedule is Maryland's (18th) on Nov. 19. Then comes Michigan (eighth) on Nov. 26. I think I trust this defense, but I'm not 100% sure, and if the Buckeyes get pushed around by Michigan again, it might cost them a Big Ten East title and a CFP spot for the second straight season.