You could say that Act I of the 2022 college football season ended with some of Week 4's strange surprises -- Georgia looking mortal against Kent State, Clemson's DJ Uiagalelei looking like the five-star playmaker he was supposed to be all along against Wake Forest, and so on. Now that almost everyone has been tested at least once, and almost everyone has looked vulnerable at least once, Act II can begin.
In Week 5, we will learn about how seriously we should be taking NC State, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Washington and UCLA. We will find out if this whole "Alabama struggles on the road" thing really has legs. We will witness another of many waves of competitive (and vital) tossup games in the Big 12 and Pac-12. We will ... watch Michigan-Iowa, I guess.
Here's everything you need to follow to get the most out of the weekend:
This is NC State's, and Devin Leary's, moment (or at least, it better be)
No. 10 NC State at No. 5 Clemson (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN app)
"Dream game. The biggest game I've ever been in. The biggest game a lot of these players have ever been in." That's how NC State defensive back Devan Boykin described Saturday night's game against Clemson on GoPack.com. This is officially rarefied air for Dave Doeren's Wolfpack; for all the high-level talent NC State has sent to the pros -- nine top-10 draft picks, three All-Pro quarterbacks (Roman Gabriel, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson) -- the program has never finished a season in the AP top 10. This is somehow the program's first "top 10 vs. top 10" matchup; it's Clemson's eighth in just the last three calendar years.
NC State began this season at No. 13, tied for its best-ever preseason ranking, and after nearly falling victim to a Week 1 upset bid from East Carolina, the Wolfpack have beaten cupcakes Charleston Southern and UConn and taken down a solid Texas Tech team 27-14 in Raleigh. Doeren has been slowly building toward this point for a while, with nine-win seasons in 2017, 2018 and 2021, and while Clemson's offense seems to be rebounding from an awful 2021, the Tigers' defense appears as vulnerable as it's been in years. This is all setting up as Devin Leary's moment. Let's see if he can take advantage.
Leary has yet to find fifth gear in 2022. After finishing 30th in Total QBR in 2021 -- good, but perhaps not quite as good as this past offseason's hype suggested -- he sits at just 85th this year. He's averaging only 6.6 yards per dropback (77th), and the Pack rank 60th in passing success rate. For that matter, the offense ranks just 63rd in points per drive, and it hasn't yet faced a defense that ranks better than 60th in defensive SP+.
Passing is the way to beat Clemson. It's how Wake Forest almost beat the Tigers last week. Sam Hartman completed 20 of 29 passes -- including gains of 40, 36, 30, 28, 25, 23 and 22 yards -- for 336 yards and six touchdowns, dropping the Tigers to 105th in passing success rate allowed, 99th on passing downs. The Tigers' pass rush (and DJ Uiagalelei's heroics) saved them late, but sacks aren't usually an issue for Leary, who gets the ball out quickly.
NC State's star receiver, Thayer Thomas, is coming off his best game in a while. He caught five passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against UConn, but in three career games against the Tigers he has seven catches for 31 yards. Outside receivers Devin Carter and Keyon Lesane run a lot of deeper routes, which are what nearly doomed Clemson last week -- Hartman was a shocking 7-for-11 on passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield -- but Carter and Lesane have caught only two of eight such passes in 2022.
How many points Leary and the Pack have to score will likely be dictated by Clemson's success running the ball. For as well as Uiagalelei did against Wake Forest -- and he was incredible, going 26-for-41 for 371 yards and five touchdowns -- passing against the NC State defense is a completely different ballgame. The Wolfpack rank fourth in ANY/A allowed* and 13th in passing success rate allowed. They put teams behind schedule with an excellent run defense, then force them to punt.
The latest weather forecast suggests that most of the particularly bad weather brought by Hurricane Ian will leave town by kickoff, so these teams' game plans likely won't be hindered. Clemson will try to run the ball regardless, and back Will Shipley (6.8 yards per carry and seven touchdowns) will muscle his way through quite a few tackles, even against the dynamite NC State linebacking corps.
Current line: Clemson -6.5 (no change since Sunday) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 4.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 13.8.
Will the "biggest game ever" status give the Pack a boost or increase the odds of an egg-laying?
Can Arkansas follow the Texas blueprint against Alabama?
No. 2 Alabama at No. 20 Arkansas (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Since Nick Saban took over as Alabama's head coach in 2007, Arkansas' role in its series with the Crimson Tide has been mostly as a harbinger of sorts. During Bama's six national title runs under Saban, the Tide have romped over the Hogs by an average score of 41-8. If they struggle with Arkansas -- as they did in 2021 (42-35 in Tuscaloosa), 2014 (14-13 in Fayetteville) and 2010 (24-20 in Fayetteville) -- it's a sign that something's not quite right in T-Town and that Bama will ultimately fall short of its title goals.
It's been 16 years since Houston Nutt's Razorbacks beat Mike Shula's Crimson Tide in double overtime in Fayetteville, and Arkansas probably won't end its losing streak Saturday afternoon. But the Hogs could provide us with lots of information. Are the Tide still vulnerable after their narrow Week 2 win over Texas? Are they going to continue to struggle on the road after four super-tight games (including an outright loss) in their last five true road games? And can Arkansas still manage a big season despite a ridiculous schedule?
Any Hog upset hopes will likely be dictated by their play on passing downs on both sides of the ball.
Passing downs have been the weakness of the Arkansas offense thus far. The Razorbacks stay on schedule beautifully thanks to the running of Raheim Sanders (6.1 yards per carry, 3.9 after contact) and quarterback KJ Jefferson (32% of his carries move the chains), but Alabama is excellent against the run. Only two FBS defenders have made more run stuffs than Will Anderson Jr.; he's got nine in just four games, which serves as your regular reminder that he might be the best pass-rusher and run-stopper in college football. Linebacker Jaylen Moody has made six stuffs as well. For all of Alabama's issues against Texas, the Tide held Longhorns star back Bijan Robinson to just 57 yards in 21 carries.
As efficient as Arkansas' offense has been, Jefferson hasn't thrown the ball well when he needs to throw. The Hogs are 90th in passing downs success rate, 85th on third-and-long. Jefferson tends to throw in front of the sticks and hope that his receiver can force a missed tackle, but that's not the best plan of action against an Alabama secondary that tackles quite well but proved against Texas that it can occasionally get burned downfield.
Passing downs also have been the weakness of the Arkansas defense. The Hogs rank 72nd in passing downs success rate allowed, and are 113th on third-and-long and 86th on third-and-medium. With star safety Jalen Catalon out for the season, coordinator Barry Odom has been shuffling his personnel a bit, and it hasn't worked out well. That said, the Hogs can rush the passer -- linebacker Drew Sanders and linemen Jordan Domineck, Zach Williams and Landon Jackson already have combined for 15.5 sacks.
Arkansas ranks fourth in passing downs sack rate, and as well as Bama quarterback Bryce Young can escape pressure, the Tide rank 87th in passing downs sack rate allowed. If the blitz gets home, and the crowd remains fired up, this could be a rugged road test for the Tide. We're getting rather used to that. But if Young remains upright, the Tide will roll.
Current line: Alabama -17 (up from -14.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Bama by 15.3 | FPI projection: Bama by 22.1.
The line has moved toward Bama, but it's not hard to see this game being tight late.
A championship rematch in Waco
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor (3:30 p.m., Fox)
The last time we saw Oklahoma State and Baylor on the same field, Jairon McVea stopped Dezmon Jackson millimeters short of the end zone, securing a 21-16 Big 12 championship game win for Dave Aranda's Bears. Both Baylor and OSU won their New Year's Six bowls and finished in the AP top 10, but both lost loads of key contributors in the offseason.
A month into this season, Baylor has faced far stiffer tests than the Cowboys have. The Bears fell to future conference mate BYU in Provo in Week 2, but responded with a lovely 31-24 road win over Iowa State last Saturday. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have yet to leave Stillwater. They left varied impressions in winning a track meet against Central Michigan, then handling Arizona State with relative ease and pummeling Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but their upside is clear. And while we can say they haven't been tested yet, that's not entirely true -- this team is loaded with battle-tested veterans, from quarterback Spencer Sanders to a still-devastating defensive line.
Both OSU and Baylor are dependent on big plays in completely different ways. OSU makes a ton of them, and its all-or-nothing defense is willing to allow some as well in the name of forcing three-and-outs and turnovers. Leading receiver Braydon Johnson is averaging 21.4 yards per catch, and the Cowboys are averaging 2.3 gains of 40-plus yards per game. (They're allowing 2.3 gains of 30-plus, too.)
Baylor, meanwhile, neither creates nor allows many chunk plays, instead turning games into battles of negativity -- Iowa State lost two turnovers and gained zero or fewer yards on 38% of its snaps last week, while turnover-free Baylor was at only 28%. That was really the only difference between the two teams, and it might be all that separates the Bears from the Pokes on Saturday.
Current line: BU -2 (up from -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Baylor by 1.5 | FPI projection: Baylor by 5.4.
This is a "power of personality" game, and it makes sense to lean toward the home team (and more recently tested squad), but this one should be awfully fun.
Which SEC up-and-comer is up-and-comingest?
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss (noon, ESPN/ESPN app)
While Texas A&M has made constant headlines with its brilliant recruiting and its refusal to ever field a consistent quarterback, and Tennessee is just loud in general, the two most consistently strong teams in the SEC over the last year-plus -- outside of Alabama and Georgia, of course -- have been based in Lexington and Oxford.
Kentucky has won 16 of its last 19, Ole Miss 18 of its last 22. The Wildcats and Rebels are seventh and 14th, respectively, in the AP poll, eighth and 11th in the coaches poll and 16th and sixth in SP+. (That's an average ranking of 10.3 for each team.) If you're rooting for a repeat of these teams' incredible 2020 matchup, the matchups seem even enough to provide hope.
Both Lane Kiffin's Rebels and Mark Stoops' Wildcats have been mostly well-rounded in 2022. Ole Miss is efficient and explosive on offense, good at big-play prevention and efficient against the pass; the Rebels' only real weakness has been its run defense. Kentucky? Efficient and well-rounded on defense, with a passing game even better than expected thanks to quarterback Will Levis and the breakout receiver trio of slots Tayvion Robinson and Barion Brown and wideout Dane Key. The Wildcats' lone weakness: run offense.
The return of Kentucky back Chris Rodriguez Jr. could make a huge difference in this one, but backup Kavosiey Smoke is pretty good; the issue for UK's run game has come up front, where the line just hasn't gotten its normal push. Maybe against Ole Miss' iffy front, with Rodriguez's elite tackle-breaking ability, everything will click. But negative plays have been frustrating to date -- UK ranks 101st in stuff rate allowed, and for all of his success, Levis is taking a ton of sacks (128th in sack rate allowed).
On offense, Ole Miss still deploys tempo as relentlessly as any team in FBS (even Tennessee). The Rebels have suffered some glitches here and there -- too many offensive line penalties, occasionally allowing too much pressure on the quarterback on third-and-long -- but when they find a rhythm, they are devastating. Running backs Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans are averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game at 6.2 yards per carry, and receivers Jonathan Mingo and Malik Heath are averaging 19.1 yards per catch. Quarterback Jaxson Dart feels like he's only found third or fourth gear so far, and the Rebels are still averaging 41 points per game. This game could be decided by whether Ole Miss manages one or two hot streaks. Basically, if the Rebs put together one hot streak, Kentucky can handle it, but if they get hot twice (or more), Ole Miss wins.
Current line: Rebels -7 (up from -4 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 6.6 | FPI projection: Rebels by 11.1.
The computers are confident in the home team, but this one feels as even as can be.
A Pac-12 eliminator (with perfect aesthetics)
No. 15 Washington at UCLA (Friday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN)
On Jan. 2, 2015, Brett Hundley rushed for two touchdowns and threw for a third as UCLA bolted to a 31-6 halftime lead over Kansas State in the Alamo Bowl, then watched the Wildcats charge back. Paul Perkins' 67-yard run with 2:20 left gave the Bruins a 40-28 lead, but KSU quickly scored again and forced UCLA to recover an onside kick to win.
It was a thrilling game. It was also the last time UCLA beat a top-15 team. Since then, the Bruins are 0-11 against the top 15. Chip Kelly is 0-6 in such games since he took over in 2018. Kalen DeBoer has been head coach at Washington for only four games and has already topped that total.
Kelly's first three seasons at UCLA were terribly mediocre, but his Bruins have won 12 of 16 since the start of 2021. They're 4-0 this year but struggled against South Alabama, the one team they've played that currently ranks higher than 117th in SP+. Washington is by far the best team they've faced, but UCLA is probably the same for the Huskies.
In general, it's really hard to predict how a "strength vs strength, weakness vs weakness" matchup will go. Florida's weak passing game had a ton of success on Tennessee's weak pass defense last week, while Florida's strong run game struggled against UT's strong run defense. UNC's dreadful pass defense got torched by Notre Dame's dreadful pass offense, but Texas A&M's bad pass offense didn't do much against a bad Arkansas pass defense. This game will likely be decided by either how well UCLA continues to avoid negative plays (against a Washington defense that creates a lot of them) or whether it can finally start generating some big pass plays (against a Washington defense that allows a lot of them).
UCLA is always moving forward. Veteran quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Bruins rank sixth in stuff rate allowed -- Zach Charbonnet: 6.8 yards per carry, a solid 5.3 between the tackles -- and 21st in sack rate allowed, in part because of a passing game that nibbles and throws quickly instead of looking for chunk plays. Washington forces teams to become more all-or-nothing, and we'll see how that impacts the Bruins. We'll also see if the bend-don't-break defense that new UCLA coordinator Bill McGovern wants to deploy can rein in quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and a devastating-to-date Husky attack.
Current line: Washington -2.5 (down from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UCLA by 3.7 | FPI projection: Washington by 1.5.
Washington has proven more so far this season, but UCLA can catch up in that department with three good hours late on Saturday evening.
My favorite bets
Never bet, boys and girls. It will make you feel very, very silly sometimes. After going 6-3-1 in the opening two weeks, my favorite bets went 2-3 in Week 3, then 1-4 in Week 4. This was primarily due to the fact that I double-dipped on the Old Dominion-Arkansas State game, missing the line (ODU -5.5) by 2.5 points and missing the over/under (56.5) by 1.5. I was also at the whim of Ole Miss (-21.5) going up by 21 late in the second quarter, then forgetting to bring its offense out after halftime and winning by 8.
It was not particularly fun. And now I have to note that these picks are under .500 (9-10-1) on the season. That's worse than my picks on this season's College GameDay Podcast, which are for games I do not hand-select and which should therefore be less successful. The more I think, the worse I do. So let's think some more! Here are five sure successes!
East Carolina (-9.5) vs. South Florida (2:30 p.m., ESPN+). I just think ECU is a lot better than USF. My numbers do, too (SP+ has ECU favored by 15.0), and while the game has been moved to a neutral field in Boca Raton due to Hurricane Ian, the line has barely shifted to reflect that.
Oregon (-17) vs. Stanford (11 p.m., FS1). I also think Oregon is a lot better than Stanford. That, and SP+ has been more accurate on Stanford games than for any other team and gives Oregon an advantage of closer to 19 points. The line has moved up from Oregon -15, and going past 17 would make me nervous, but 17 or lower feels good.
SMU at UCF: under 64.5 (Sunday, 1 p.m.). Six of the eight games these teams have played this season have produced fewer than 64.5 points, and UCF games have gone under by an average of 11.6 points. I'm not sure what effect, if any, moving the game to Sunday might have, but I would be very surprised if it made the game much more prolific.
California at Washington State: under 53.5 (5:30 p.m., Pac-12). Before last Saturday's weird track meet against Oregon, Wazzu's first three games had averaged 39.0 total points. Before last Saturday's track meet against Arizona, Cal games were averaging 40.7 total points. SP+ has been underselling Cal's offense a bit but projects this game at 42.2 total points. That's quite a bit of cushion even if the Golden Bears are more prolific than projected.
NC State at Clemson: over 41 (7:30 p.m., ABC). This feels like a weather pick to me -- SP+ projects 50.1 total points -- but at the moment Weather Underground is projecting heavy rain in Clemson to have slowed down considerably by the afternoon. If the weather lets these teams both pass, I figure this zips well past 41 points.
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Tulane at Houston (7 p.m., ESPN). Houston's semi-disappointing season could become a terribly disappointing one over the next two weeks if the Cougars don't find some consistency. Both this game and next week's trip to Memphis look like tossups, so after next week, Houston could be a rebounding 4-2 or a devastated 2-4. Current line: Houston -2.5 (down from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Houston by 0.5 | FPI projection: Tulane by 1.2
Early Saturday
No. 4 Michigan at Iowa (noon, Fox). Maryland was one kind of test, and Michigan passed it. Now the Wolverines have to take a completely different kind of test, facing an intense Kinnick Stadium crowd and the good-as-ever Iowa defense (and, yes, the aggressively hapless Iowa offense). UM should win, but Iowa can make teams look pretty bad even in defeat. Current line: Michigan -11 (up from -9.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 10.2 | FPI projection: Michigan by 10.2
Oregon State at No. 12 Utah (2 p.m., Pac-12). Jonathan Smith's Beavers were so dang close to a memorable upset of USC last week, but they still have a chance to impact the Pac-12 race with a trip to face what might still be the best team in the conference. Current line: Utah -10 (down from -11 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Utah by 13.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 13.0
No. 18 Oklahoma at TCU (noon, ABC). TCU is fast, aggressive and inconsistent, and Oklahoma is angry after last week's loss to Kansas State. I love this game because of what we might learn about Sonny Dykes' Horned Frogs, but it's also a must-win for OU to preserve whatever big ambitions it has. Every remaining game is, actually. Current line: OU -6.5 (up from -5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 10.0 | FPI projection: OU by 5.5
Purdue at No. 21 Minnesota (noon, ESPN2). We don't know much about the injury status of Purdue quarterback Aidan O'Connell, and the Boilermakers probably need him to pull an upset here, but they'll be a tricky test for P.J. Fleck's dominant-to-date Golden Gophers either way. Minnesota should be ranked higher than 21st, but they'll rise soon enough if they keep winning. Current line: Gophers -12.5 (up from -10 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Gophers by 12.7 | FPI projection: Gophers by 11.9
Texas Tech at No. 25 Kansas State (noon, ESPN+). We've seen the ceiling and the floor for Kansas State over the last two games, and we see both the ceiling and floor for Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith on any given drive. That makes this game rather unpredictable, but I think KSU is favored for a reason. Current line: K-State -8 (no change) | SP+ projection: K-State by 9.7 | FPI projection: K-State by 6.8
Navy at Air Force (noon, CBS). Navy is coming off of its best performance of the season (a win over East Carolina), but the Midshipmen have lost their last two games against Troy Calhoun's hated Falcons by a combined 63-10. This is a huge test against an Air Force team that is awfully good. Current line: Air Force -14 (down from -16 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Air Force by 19.9 | FPI projection: Air Force by 20.5
Saturday afternoon
No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 23 Florida State (3:30 p.m., ABC). The Seminoles have cleared a huge hurdle simply by moving to 4-0 for the first time since 2015. Now comes another hurdle: getting back at a Wake Forest team that walloped them by three touchdowns last season. Current line: FSU -7 (up from -3 on Sunday!) | SP+ projection: FSU by 5.4 | FPI projection: FSU by 8.7
No. 17 Texas A&M at Mississippi State (4 p.m., SECN). The tests never really stop in the SEC West. Texas A&M's reward for tight wins over Miami and Arkansas? A trip to Starkville to face weird and talented MSU. Next week? Bama. The Aggies better win this one, but it'll be much easier said than done. Current line: MSU -4 (up from -1 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: MSU by 3.9 | FPI projection: MSU by 6.7
Iowa State at Kansas (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has by far the best defense an amazing Kansas offense -- and its September Heisman-winning quarterback Jalon Daniels -- have faced to date. Can the unbeaten Jayhawks keep this thing going for another week or two? And how the hell did they not end up ranked this week? Current line: ISU -3 (no change) | SP+ projection: ISU by 4.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.9
Virginia Tech at North Carolina (3:30 p.m., ACCN). There is no "resistible force vs. movable object" matchup in Week 5 stronger than when Virginia Tech's offense (110th in points per drive) takes on UNC's defense (121st). The OTHER matchup will be super interesting, though. Current line: UNC -9 (no change) | SP+ projection: UNC by 5.9 | FPI projection: UNC by 11.7
Saturday evening
No. 1 Georgia at Missouri (7:30 p.m., SECN). Kirby Smart's Bulldogs got their wakeup call when Kent State landed some punches last week. That's probably bad news for Mizzou, but the Tigers' defense has been legitimately solid and could keep them in the game for a bit (until Mizzou's utter lack of offense takes them out of it). Current line: UGA -28 (no change) | SP+ projection: UGA by 22.5 | FPI projection: UGA by 24.7
LSU at Auburn (7 p.m., ESPN). LSU has looked awfully good for the last few weeks, and last week against Mizzou, Auburn played like it was just assuming its coach was about to get fired. That might happen with a loss on Saturday night, of course, but this series tends to make so little sense that I'm kind of assuming Auburn wins by 17. Current line: LSU -9 (up from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: LSU by 5.7 | FPI projection: LSU by 11.2
West Virginia at Texas (7:30 p.m., FS1). West Virginia is coming off its best performance in a while -- a physically dominant 33-10 win over Virginia Tech -- while Texas has to respond to its latest infuriatingly close loss. Before Week 4, this seemed like it would be an easy Longhorn win. The picture's a little blurrier now. Current line: Horns -9.5 (down from -10 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Horns by 12.2 | FPI projection: Horns by 14.8
Late Saturday
Arizona State at No. 6 USC (10:30 p.m., ESPN). ASU has scored 30 combined points in two games against power-conference teams. The Sun Devils can still run the ball -- USC's kryptonite to date -- but this game is interesting primarily to see how the Trojans' offense responds after a bit of a dud against Oregon State. Current line: USC -25.5 (up from -24 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: USC by 14.0 | FPI projection: USC by 23.0
Stanford at No. 13 Oregon (11 p.m., FS1). Oregon self-destructed in the red zone last week against Washington State and nearly lost because of it before storming back. But the Ducks are still ruthlessly efficient and should have too much for a Cardinal team that has lost its last nine games against power-conference opponents. You know, just like they did last year ... when they lost to Stanford. Current line: Ducks -17 (up from -15 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Ducks by 18.8 | FPI projection: Ducks by 14.5
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should at least keep track of on your laptop. It's worth it, I promise. (In last week's showcase, South Dakota State pulled away for a 14-point win over Missouri State, Mary Hardin-Baylor pounded Hardin-Simmons, 50-20 and Ouachita Baptist slogged out a 21-13 win over rival Harding.)
FCS: No. 11 Holy Cross at Harvard (1 p.m., ESPN+). Holy Cross has won 17 of its last 21 games, including two straight against FBS teams. Head coach Bob Chesney has built a hell of a program -- he's a hell of a coach, actually -- but Harvard is 2-0 and has won three straight in this series.
D3: No. 4 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 8 Wisconsin-La Crosse (2 p.m., local streaming). UW-La Crosse has won three national titles in its history but has lost 18 straight to Whitewater. That said, three of the last four losses were by one score. Is this the year the Eagles turn the tables on the Warhawks? (I asked the same thing of Hardin-Simmons against UMHB last week, and UMHB won by 30.)
FCS: UC Davis at No. 4 Montana State (10:15 p.m., ESPNU). With competitive losses to Cal, South Dakota State and Weber State, Dan Hawkins' UC Davis is the best 1-3 team in the FCS universe. The Aggies are 17th in my FCS SP+ rankings despite the record and could throw a scare into Montana State if its defense, which gave up 103 combined points to Oregon State and Eastern Washington in the last two weeks, doesn't get its confidence back.