Thought you had it, Washington State and Oregon State. You too, Wake Forest.
Doinks off the top of the goalposts should be worth double the points, Arkansas.
You tried, Indiana and Rutgers. You needed one fewer turnover, Iowa State.
Guess you still couldn't overcome Kansas State's strange hex, Oklahoma.
You acquitted yourself well, Maryland and Duke. Not really sure what happened there, Tulane.
Three weeks into the 2022 college football season, only 33 of 131 FBS teams remained unbeaten. Week 4, in all its weirdness, snipped that list by another 36% as 12 unbeatens lost, including five favorites.
Some of these now-former unbeatens could still potentially play themselves into CFP contention, and most others are still on track for lovely seasons, but our second edition of Ranking the Unbeatens is a bit thinner. Odds are, about seven more teams will fall off this list in Week 5.
SP+ projects six unbeatens as outright underdogs this week -- TCU (28% win probability vs. Oklahoma), Kentucky (35% at Ole Miss), NC State (40% at Clemson), Kansas (40% vs. Iowa State), Washington (42% at UCLA) and Oklahoma State (47% at Baylor) -- and gives eight more between a 50% and 80% chance of winning. With Tennessee off and six unbeatens facing each other, SP+ says that among the 21 teams below, 6.7 are expected to suffer losses. This week it's the Tantalizing Twenty-One. Next week it will evidently be the Fearsome Fourteen.
Let's rank the unbeatens!
21. Coastal Carolina
SP+ and FPI rankings: 51st and 84th, respectively
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 3.0%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Georgia State 41-24
Why they're ranked here: To their credit, Jamey Chadwell's Chanticleers have looked much better since Week 2, when they were lucky to beat Gardner-Webb. The offense is again combining lovely run efficiency with Grayson McCall's ultra-efficient passing -- we'll see if McCall has to miss time after suffering an ankle sprain against Georgia State -- but the pass defense is still a major concern. The Chants rank 89th in ANY/A* allowed despite not having played a good passing team yet. That will eventually doom them, but SP+ gives them a 50/50 chance of getting to 7-0 before they head to Marshall on Oct. 29.
* Adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) is a yards-per-pass average that includes sacks and sack yardage and adds a 20-yard bonus for every touchdown and a 45-yard penalty for every interception. It gives us what we think we get from passer rating.
20. Syracuse
SP+ and FPI rankings: 59th and 40th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Virginia 22-20
Why they're ranked here: The Orange settled for five field goals and lost three fumbles in a 22-20 win over Virginia on Friday night that was equal parts thrilling and sloppy. They should beat Wagner of the FCS this coming Saturday, and they're almost guaranteed to find a sixth win somewhere else on the schedule, but they're projected underdogs in each of the next six games following Wagner. Offensive coordinator Robert Anae and quarterbacks coach Jason Beck have spruced up the offense, and Oronde Gadsden II is quickly emerging as one of the ACC's better receivers, but the unbeaten record probably isn't going to last much longer.
19. James Madison
SP+ and FPI rankings: 68th and 65th
Odds of reaching 11-0, per SP+ (JMU plays only 11 games in its FCS transition season): 1.7%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Appalachian State 32-28
Why they're ranked here: What a win. Down 28-3 against battle-tested Appalachian State, Curt Cignetti's Dukes held the Mountaineers scoreless for their final eight drives, scored the game's final 29 points and moved to 3-0 the hard way.
Welcome to the Fun Belt!#GoDukes pic.twitter.com/3bGsrn32nn
— JMU Football (@JMUFootball) September 24, 2022
A month into JMU's first FBS season, quarterback Todd Centeio is 22nd in Total QBR, and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per drive and 10th in points allowed per drive. Almost no program has been as well equipped to make the jump from FCS -- I wrote about exactly that in August -- but I still expected more growing pains than this!
18. Kansas
SP+ and FPI rankings: 52nd and 55th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: less than 0.1%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Duke 35-27
Why they're ranked here: This offense is something else. Jalon Daniels would have been a front-runner for the September Heisman if that were a thing, the Jayhawks are averaging 4.1 points per drive (second in FBS) and 7.8 yards per play (third), and as the incredible Saturday touchdown from Daniel Hishaw Jr. attests, Daniels' teammates are raising their game to meet his standard.
Oh right, the question was "why are they ranked here?" Easy: defense. The Jayhawks are giving up 2.4 points per drive (95th) and 5.6 yards per play (82nd). That's going to lose them some games, probably in the very near future. But they're going to remain incredibly fun to watch all year.
17. TCU
SP+ and FPI rankings: 32nd and 28th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.1%
What they did in Week 4: defeated SMU 42-34
Why they're ranked here: For about 25 minutes on Saturday, TCU looked like a team with top-10 aspirations, making big play after big play and bolting to a 28-7 lead over SMU. Then the Horned Frogs spent 35 minutes looking like a team that wanted to leave the unbeatens list. Their 42-34 win got the job done, and this offense, with as many gains of 60-plus yards as three-and-outs (two each), really does look scary. But the next month is brutal -- Oklahoma, at Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State -- and will require both better defense and a stronger attention span.
16. UCLA
SP+ and FPI rankings: 19th and 38th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 3.2%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Colorado 45-17
Why they're ranked here: On paper, Chip Kelly's Bruins seem increasingly trustworthy. They're 19th in points per drive and 26th in points allowed. They're tilting the field well, and they're 4-0 thanks to efficient offense and bend-don't-break defense. But they've played only one team ranked higher than 117th in SP+ (South Alabama) and needed a last-second field goal to win.
They host Washington and Utah over the next two weeks, which will (a) hopefully boost their home attendance beyond the dreadful current average of 30,071 and (b) tell us what we need to know about their trustworthiness.
15. Florida State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 33rd and 22nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Boston College 44-14
Why they're ranked here: After proving their resilience in beating LSU and Louisville by a combined 5 points, Mike Norvell's Seminoles proved their upside by blowing out banged-up Boston College from the start. Jordan Travis needed only 16 completions to amass 321 yards, and the score was 14-0 after three minutes and 37-0 late in the third quarter. This was absolute destruction, and it bumped the Noles up 10 spots in SP+.
Now comes a trio of prove-it games: Wake Forest, at NC State, Clemson. If FSU is still unbeaten on Oct. 16, we're looking at a playoff contender.
14. Washington
SP+ and FPI rankings: 24th and 18th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 3.8%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Stanford 40-22
Why they're ranked here: The models are quickly learning to trust the Huskies, who are 4-0 against the spread, have overachieved SP+ projections by 11.4 points per game and have jumped 33 spots in SP+ and 30 in FPI since the start of the season. The offense has been great, the defense good.
Now we finally get to learn if Kalen DeBoer can take this show on the road. The Huskies play their first road game Friday night against UCLA, then play two more (at Arizona State and Cal) in the following three weeks.
13. NC State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 20th and 31st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 4.9%
What they did in Week 4: defeated UConn 41-10
Why they're ranked here: We're now well into the "not yet contenders but maybe?" category of unbeatens. The Wolfpack began the season with their best preseason poll ranking ever and proceeded to immediately almost lose to East Carolina. But they didn't! And they've looked better since then. The defense is as good as expected (eighth in defensive SP+), but the offense has produced too many negative run plays and not enough big pass plays. With games against Clemson and Florida State over the next two weeks, now's the time to get rolling offensively.
12. Kentucky
SP+ and FPI rankings: 16th and 30th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.8%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Northern Illinois 31-23
Why they're ranked here: The good news: The Wildcats have survived the four-game absence of star running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. with their unbeaten record intact, and he's expected back this weekend against Ole Miss. The bad news: Even Rodriguez might struggle to run consistently behind a line that has been just awful this season.
Kentucky is 101st in stuff rate allowed and 128th in sack rate allowed, and it has gummed up what is an otherwise efficient operation -- Will Levis is passing well, the Wildcats are up to sixth in defensive SP+ and improvement up front could produce the school's first AP top-10 finish since 1977.
11. USC
SP+ and FPI rankings: 19th and 9th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 3.3%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Oregon State 17-14
Why they're ranked here: After three games with a devastating offense and a lucky-as-hell (from a turnovers perspective) defense, the Trojans blurred the picture by beating Oregon State with great (if still turnover-dependent) defense and an offense that averaged less than 5 yards per play.
Excellent, complementary football? An offense that isn't as good as we thought? A team that's going to fall apart the moment the turnovers go away? You can see whatever you want right now. I see a team I'll officially trust if it is still unbeaten after the Oct. 15 trip to Utah.
10. Minnesota
SP+ and FPI rankings: 7th and 14th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 9.4%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Michigan State 34-7
Why they're ranked here: The Golden Gophers feasted on the tastiest of cupcakes to start the year, but their pummeling of Michigan State last week was quite a statement. The Gophers are first in the nation in points per drive and fourth in points per drive allowed; in the name of "it's not who you play, it's how," they've proved everything they possibly can so far this year.
Now they just have to keep doing it -- first against oddballs such as Purdue and Illinois, then against a high-level Penn State team Oct. 22 in Happy Valley.
9. Penn State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 10th and 13th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Central Michigan 33-14
Why they're ranked here: The Nittany Lions' comfortable but closer-than-expected win over Central Michigan served as a nice reality check to those of us (like myself) who overreacted a bit to their big Week 3 win over Auburn. They're still clearly very good, but inefficiencies in both the run game and run defense might cost them at some point.
That said, the upside is undeniable. Inefficient or not, Nicholas Singleton is averaging 9.0 yards per carry, and the PSU secondary is one of the most exciting in the country. After a two-year absence, they've got a solid chance of finishing in the AP top 10.
8. Ole Miss
SP+ and FPI rankings: 6th and 11th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 2.2%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Tulsa 35-27
Why they're ranked here: The Rebels got an even stiffer reality check than Penn State last week as a banged-up defense gave up 457 yards to Tulsa and what looked like an easy win (they led 35-14 after 29 minutes) turned into a 60-minute battle. But the Rebs prevailed, they're running the ball as well as ever, and they rank 22nd in ANY/A on offense and 17th on defense.
If they can't take advantage of Kentucky's offensive line issues (it's a weakness vs. weakness matchup), they might not be long for this unbeaten world. But for now I still trust them. I think.
7. Oklahoma State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 20th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.6%
What they did in Week 4: sat on their sofa, eating bonbons
Why they're ranked here: OSU was idle on Week 4 after a nonconference run that saw them outscore three opponents by an average of 52-23. The offense has been as explosive as ever, reminiscent of the Mason Rudolph-to-James Washington days, but if the Cowboys are to take another big swing at a CFP bid (they came awfully close last year), the defense will probably tell the tale. It has been predictably all-or-nothing thus far, but a meat grinder of a Big 12 schedule -- every remaining opponent ranks 52nd or better in SP+ -- will punish the Cowboys if they can't tamp down the "alls."
6. Tennessee
SP+ and FPI rankings: 8th and 12th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.3%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Florida, 38-33
Why they're ranked here: It's still early, but Josh Heupel's Vols have thus far lived up to the top-10 status SP+ handed them at the start of the season. The defense has some big-play issues but is good in the red zone (and hey, if you score too quickly on them, that just means they get to tire out your defense some more), and quarterback Hendon Hooker was incredible against Florida, combining 349 passing yards with 112 rushing yards.
They're idle this week before playing at LSU and then hosting Alabama in Weeks 6 and 7. We'll know everything we need to know soon.
5. Clemson
SP+ and FPI rankings: 13th and 5th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 6.8%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Wake Forest, 51-45 (OT)
Why they're ranked here: What on earth do we make of a Tigers team that is simultaneously looking better than expected on offense and worse than expected on defense? DJ Uiagalelei is coming off his best performance in a Clemson uniform (371 yards and five touchdowns against Wake), but his team nearly lost anyway because the secondary got torched by Sam Hartman & Co. What will that mean in Week 5 against an NC State team that has shown far more on defense than offense? I'm not sure, but I'll give Clemson the benefit of the doubt for one more week.
4. Michigan
SP+ and FPI rankings: 4th and 4th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 10.1%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Maryland, 34-27
Why they're ranked here: Thanks to a pillow-soft nonconference slate, Jim Harbaugh took his time figuring out Michigan's quarterback situation. And in his first game against legitimate opposition, J.J. McCarthy was solid, throwing for 220 yards and two touchdowns and, more importantly, sticking the ball into Blake Corum's belly. Corum rushed for 243 yards in a 34-27 win over Maryland, and the defense was solid, if not amazing, against a good Maryland attack. Now comes a unique test: How will McCarthy fare against an Iowa defense that remains maybe the most frustrating in the country to play against?
3. Ohio State
SP+ and FPI rankings: 2nd and 2nd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 23.5%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Wisconsin, 52-21
Why they're ranked here: Heading into the season, it was basically three teams versus the field. It still is. Rank these top three teams in whatever order you prefer, and you could be right. I'm sticking with last week's order -- I still don't completely trust the Ohio State defense -- but the Buckeyes nearly changed my mind with a devastating performance against Wisconsin.
They're back to No. 1 in offensive SP+ despite getting almost nothing from star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba thus far, and they've got an easier Big Ten schedule than most because, well, they don't have to play Ohio State. An end-of-October trip to Penn State looms, but this looks like another Buckeyes team that is too talented for the rest of its conference.
2. Alabama
SP+ and FPI rankings: 1st and 1st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 17.4%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Vanderbilt, 55-3
Why they're ranked here: I'm still a little bit wary about the Crimson Tide's offensive line and run game, but Bama has looked like Bama again (admittedly against iffy competition) since the near loss at Texas in Week 2.
It certainly helps that the Tide still have maybe the two best players in college football. Will Anderson Jr. has quickly rounded into form after a slow-by-his-standards start -- his past two games: 4.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and a pick-six -- and quarterback Bryce Young's mach-speed processing and escapability can paper over cracks in the offense. And the Tide get a chance to prove their road-warrior capabilities by handling their business at Arkansas this coming Saturday.
1. Georgia
SP+ and FPI rankings: 3rd and 3rd
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 27.7%
What they did in Week 4: defeated Kent State, 39-22
Why they're ranked here: The Dawgs dropped to third in the metrics following their wonky win over Kent State, but I'm keeping them at the top for another week, if only because they had looked so ridiculously good in the three weeks prior. Star defensive tackle Jalen Carter might be in better shape after playing injured the past couple of weeks, and let's just say it's doubtful receiver Ladd McConkey's two-fumble performance (which almost directly led to 10 points for the Golden Flashes) will be replicated.
The Dawgs are not scheduled to face another ranked opponent until Tennessee visits Nov. 5, which should offer time to restore both their health and attention span for the stretch run. It's still hard to pick against Georgia against anyone -- even Bama or Ohio State.