We didn't have any seismic upsets in Week 4 of the college football season, but we did see two top-10 teams (Oklahoma and Arkansas) go down, with several others -- Clemson and USC among them -- survive some close calls. With the first month of the schedule in the books, the picture for the College Football Playoff, the New Year's Six games and the rest of bowl season is beginning to show a bit of clarity, at least for the time being.
ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are back with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP picture and which teams helped and hurt their causes the most over the weekend.
All times Eastern
College Football Playoff
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Georgia
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Clemson
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Clemson
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Alabama
CFP breakdown
Bonagura: The same basic formula to come up with the four playoff teams holds true -- two SEC teams (Georgia/Alabama), the Big Ten champion (Ohio State, for now) and ... someone else. That someone else will almost assuredly be the champion of either the ACC, Big 12 or Pac-12, which meant Clemson, Oklahoma and USC were the top candidates going into the weekend. None of them strengthened their case, as Clemson needed overtime to get by Wake Forest, USC scored late to beat Oregon State and Oklahoma lost to Kansas State. There is no logical reason to feel strongly about Clemson over USC or vice versa, so for this week we'll give the edge to Clemson because of quarterback DJ Uiagalelei's strong performance against Wake. His play had been a question mark until Saturday, and if he can sustain that high level of play, Clemson is much more of a threat.
Schlabach: I'll stay with defending national champion Georgia as the top seed, although the Bulldogs weren't nearly as impressive as Alabama and Ohio State this past weekend. Georgia had three turnovers and didn't seem focused in a 39-22 victory over Kent State. Still, the Bulldogs might have the best win of the season so far with their beatdown of Oregon in the opener. The Crimson Tide are coming together after their struggles at Texas. Quarterback Bryce Young threw for 385 yards with four touchdowns in a 55-3 rout of Vanderbilt. The Commodores had only 129 yards of offense. Likewise, the Buckeyes are rolling. C.J. Stroud threw for five touchdowns and Ohio State piled up 539 yards of offense in a 52-21 win over Wisconsin. I'll go with Clemson as the No. 4 team, after Oklahoma fell 41-34 to Kansas State at home and USC survived a 17-14 victory at Oregon State. Clemson's offense looked better, but its defense might be a concern after Wake Forest gained 447 yards in the Tigers' 51-45 win in two overtimes.
New Year's Six
Dec. 30
Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: NC State vs. Penn State
Dec. 31
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee
Jan. 2
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Washington vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Cincinnati
Bonagura's team that helped its cause the most
Washington: Beating Stanford isn't exactly noteworthy these days, but Washington's rapid ascent under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer has the Huskies looking like a valid Pac-12 title contender. They've been dominant in all four of their wins this year and don't have to play USC or Utah in the regular season. A trip to undefeated UCLA this week will be one to watch.
Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. USC
Schlabach: Michigan vs. USC
Schlabach's team that helped its cause the most
USC: On paper, USC's 17-14 victory at Oregon State on Saturday night might not seem that impressive. Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams completed only 16 of 36 passes for 180 yards. The USC offense averaged less than 5 yards per play. But Lincoln Riley has to be happy that his defense made stops when the Trojans had to have them. Going into the season, there weren't any questions about USC's explosiveness on offense. There were plenty of concerns about the defense. Through four games, USC is the only team in the FBS that hasn't committed a turnover, and it is tied for the FBS lead with 14 takeaways. Those are good signs.
Bowl season
Dec. 16
HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. UAB
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Kent State
Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Tulsa vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Rice
Dec. 17
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Memphis
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. San Diego State
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCLA vs. Air Force
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Air Force
LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. BYU
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Utah vs. Arkansas
Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Houston vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Wyoming
Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Houston vs. Middle Tennessee State
Dec. 20
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Kent State
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Dec. 21
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UAB vs. Coastal Carolina
Dec. 22
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Tulane
Schlabach: TCU vs. UCF
Dec. 23
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Army vs. Cal
Schlabach: Army vs. Oregon State
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Louisville
Schlabach: Liberty vs. UTSA
Dec. 24
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Middle Tennessee State vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Boise State
Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Central Michigan
Dec. 27
Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. South Alabama
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: SMU vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Washington State
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. Florida
Schlabach: SMU vs. Mississippi State
Bonagura's teams whose stock took the biggest hit
Texas and Oklahoma. The stakes will be decidedly less important in the Red River rivalry after Texas and Oklahoma both lost. When Texas' only loss was a slim defeat to Alabama and Oklahoma was undefeated, there was a playoff path for both teams. However, after Texas lost to Texas Tech and Oklahoma fell to Kansas State, neither are worth serious consideration.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Iowa
Dec. 28
Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. UCF
Schlabach: Duke vs. Tulsa
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Texas vs. South Carolina
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Oregon
TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: TCU vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Ole Miss
Dec. 29
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Purdue
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Wisconsin
Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Oklahoma
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Washington
Dec. 30
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Pitt vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Miami vs. Michigan State
Schlabach's teams whose stock took the biggest hit
Miami and Texas: Take your pick on who still isn't back -- the Longhorns or the Hurricanes. Texas blew a 14-point lead in the second half and lost 37-34 in overtime at Texas Tech. Bijan Robinson fumbled on the first play of overtime in a game that looked all too familiar because of Texas' mistakes. For all the momentum the Longhorns might have gained in their one-point loss to Alabama on Sept. 10, it evaporated in the fourth quarter in Lubbock. As bad as that was, it wasn't nearly as ugly as Miami's 45-31 loss to Middle Tennessee State at home. The Blue Raiders never trailed after forcing turnovers on the Hurricanes' first three possessions. MTSU's defense stopped Miami on downs three other times. Canes quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was benched in the third quarter. Miami's defense gave up scores of 69, 71 and 98 yards. First-year coach Mario Cristobal has plenty of work to do.
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Cal
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Florida
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Miami (Ohio)
Dec. 31
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Maryland vs. LSU
Jan. 2
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. LSU
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Kentucky