The September saying is back: "They haven't played anybody yet."
(*Elbows Michigan fans.)
Seriously, just how good are they?
Michigan looks like a top-four team -- against three opponents that have a combined record of 1-9 and aren't in the Power 5.
Georgia looks like the best team in the country -- again. Can it be even better?
The College Football Playoff selection committee doesn't meet or release its first ranking until Nov. 1 -- weeks after the midpoint of the season -- and this is why. USC is like the new ride at the amusement park that looks fast and fun but hasn't been tested. Is Oklahoma a rerun with new actors? Clemson is beating up on ... "Techs."
There are more questions than answers with one September Saturday still looming, but we won't have to wait until the first ranking to learn more about the top playoff contenders.
How good is Michigan?
Blake Corum goes for five touchdowns as Michigan cruises to a 59-0 victory over UConn.
To be clear, Michigan looks good. Any team that scores at least 50 points in each of its first three games is doing something right. (It's also the first time in school history the Wolverines have done that, and they are the first team to do so since Alabama in 2018). The lopsided scores, though, came against some of the worst teams in ESPN's Football Power Index: No. 110 Colorado State, No. 131 Hawai'i and No. 125 UConn.
Anything less probably would've been scoffed at, as it was one of the easiest openings in decades. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, Michigan is the first team since the FBS/FCS split in 1978 to be favored by at least 45 points in consecutive games and the first team to be favored by at least 31 in its first three games of the year since 2001 Florida.
Now Michigan needs to prove itself against better, ranked competition.
By the end of October, Michigan will have faced Iowa, Penn State and Michigan State, revealing how seriously to take the Wolverines in the Big Ten and the national picture. The Oct. 1 crossover game at Iowa could be tricky. The Wolverines have lost four in a row at Iowa -- all by eight points or fewer (one possession). They haven't won in Iowa City since 2005.
The trip to Iowa will be Michigan's first true test of the season, but September has been an opportunity to identify J.J. McCarthy as the starting quarterback and build confidence on a defense that replaced NFL-bound stars Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. So far, Michigan hasn't allowed any first-half points. Michigan's defense has held its opponents to 17 points through the first three weeks -- the fewest total points allowed in that span since the 2003 season.
It's highly unlikely Michigan is going to continue to win by 40 points per game, but if it can continue to win the turnover battle, make game-changing plays on special teams and highlight the balanced offense through the conference schedule, it will have a legitimate chance to return to the CFP. The Wolverines are probably going to have to win the Big Ten, though, because anything less will bring this September schedule under the microscope in the selection committee meeting room.
That's when a 40-point margin of victory against Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn won't equate to the top four.
Is Georgia even better than last year?
UGA 2.0 would be scary good -- and it's trending that direction.
Through a similar three-game start to 2021, including a Week 3 game against South Carolina, Georgia has scored more, gained more yards, and its offense has stayed on the field longer. According to ESPN's Stats & Information research, Georgia is averaging 43 points per game and holding its opponents to 3.3, compared to averaging 35 points and allowing 7.6 though the first three games in 2021.
The difference in time of possession is glaring. Through the first three games last year, Georgia averaged 29:37, while its opponents had the ball an average of 30:22. This season, Georgia has averaged 33:57, while its opponents averaged 26:02. Last year's average yards margin per game was +209.3. This year it's +283.3.
Georgia has outscored its opponents 130-10, making its plus-120 points differential the fourth-best by a defending national champion through its first three games of a season since 1980. The Bulldogs' season-opening 49-3 thumping of Oregon looks even better after the Ducks won convincingly Saturday against a gritty BYU team. A nonconference win against a top-25 Power 5 opponent could help Georgia finish in the top four again even if it loses in the SEC championship game.
Based on what we've seen so far, it's hard to fathom Georgia losing -- to anyone -- but how does this team handle adversity? Beyond the throttling of Oregon, Georgia beat FCS Samford and a South Carolina team that was missing five defensive starters Saturday. Florida is the team most likely to push Georgia the hardest before the first ranking, but the Gators couldn't beat Kentucky.
Meanwhile, Georgia racked up 547 yards and scored on eight of its first nine possessions before the backups came in on the road against its first SEC opponent.
"We're going to have to play a four-quarter game at some point," quarterback Stetson Bennett said. "This isn't going to happen every week."
It's not?
ESPN's FPI gives Georgia at least a 73% chance to win each game on its schedule, with its most difficult remaining game Nov. 12 at Mississippi State (73.9% chance to win). The Bulldogs end their SEC schedule with back-to-back road games against Mississippi State and Kentucky (82.2% chance to win).
Georgia won every regular-season game last year, and it can do it again. The one surefire way to prove this team is better than last year? Beat Alabama -- not once, but twice.
Is Clemson ready to return to the CFP?
Not if it continues to let unheralded teams like Louisiana Tech hang around.
The final scores don't tell the full story of what has been a concerning trend for the Tigers. In the season opener against Georgia Tech, Clemson's first four drives resulted in a trio of three-and-outs and one turnover. The following week against Furman, Clemson's defense allowed the FCS team 384 total yards. Saturday against Louisiana Tech, Clemson led 13-6 at the half. The Tigers don't look bad, but they certainly have looked vulnerable.
Forget a semifinal against Alabama or Ohio State -- is Clemson ready for its road trip to Wake Forest?
The ACC could be in trouble again if Clemson doesn't regain its elite status, because the SEC has two contenders in Alabama and Georgia, and the Big Ten could have two in Ohio State and Michigan. If Alabama, Georgia and the Big Ten champion are in, Clemson could lose a debate for the fourth spot if the Pac-12 and Big 12 have conference champions with more impressive résumés.
Clemson entered Week 3 with the No. 103 schedule strength, and Notre Dame and South Carolina haven't done anything to help it. The Tigers need the selection committee to rank a handful of their opponents in the CFP top 25, and Clemson has to clearly assert itself in those games as the better team. No. 19 Wake Forest was fortunate to beat Liberty 37-36 on Saturday, while No. 13 Miami lost on the road to Texas A&M. NC State helped the ACC with its win against Texas Tech.
While there are several teams capable of winning the ACC, the league is at its best when Clemson is too, and the Tigers have yet to convince their critics they're ready for a return to the CFP.
Is Oklahoma the Big 12's best bet?
Oklahoma has a new cast of characters, namely first-year coach Brent Venables and quarterback Dillon Gabriel, but through the first three games, it has looked like a Sooner sequel.
Oklahoma is undefeated with playoff potential, and while rival Texas was in a dogfight with UTSA, the Sooners were celebrating their first road win against a Power 5 opponent under Venables.
Still, Oklahoma has yet to beat an opponent with a winning record, and it entered Week 3 with the No. 123 strength of schedule. If Oklahoma is going to separate itself as the league's front-runner, it's going to have to continue to play complete games against better competition. Like Clemson and Michigan, there's little margin for error, and Oklahoma will need the selection committee to hold teams in its league in high regard because the nonconference lineup won't help.
There's only one game on the schedule ESPN's FPI doesn't think the Sooners will win -- Oct. 8 against rival Texas. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas has the better chance (18.8%) to reach the CFP semifinals compared to OU's 4.6% chance. (That's because it thinks Texas will beat OU).
Texas isn't the only Big 12 team that could derail Oklahoma, as the two teams that played for the conference title a year ago -- Oklahoma State and Baylor -- can do it again. Improving teams like TCU and K-State also have upset potential, and Kansas -- Kansas!? -- is 3-0 for the first time since 2009. By the time the committee's first ranking comes out, OU will have faced all of the aforementioned teams except Oklahoma State and Baylor.
If OU does lose to Texas (or anyone else), it would then have to win the Big 12 to have a shot at the top four as a one-loss conference champion. Saturday's 49-14 win against an embattled Nebraska team that just fired Scott Frost was the first step toward putting it all together.
"No one here is beating our chest," Venables said.
Is USC really a contender in Year 1 under Lincoln Riley?
Admit it. You thought there was a chance unranked Fresno State was a trap game. You even stayed up a little later to find out if USC's secondary would hold up against the Bulldogs' passing game. The Trojans avoided disaster. USC's offense looks different, feels different, is exciting to watch and oozes talent with quarterback Caleb Williams, receiver Jordan Addison and running back Travis Dye, just to name a few.
USC entered Week 3 ranked No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency but has yet to face a Power 5 opponent with a winning record. The defense has some questions, as it entered Saturday allowing 360.5 yards per game, but it also has been opportunistic, creating turnovers and ultimately holding opponents to an average of 21 points per game.
The schedule is getting more difficult each week -- the trip to 3-0 Oregon State in Week 4 isn't a gimme -- but USC's place in the playoff won't become more clear until at least Oct. 15, when it travels to Utah. The winner of that game will assert itself as the league's top playoff contender, and Utah could fall out of the conversation entirely with a second loss.
Remember, the Pac-12 scrapped its divisions effective this season, so if Utah and USC are the two best teams in the league, the former South Division teams will play each other again for the conference title. The Pac-12 wants to avoid a two-loss champion, though, and Utah already lost to Florida. USC could afford to lose to Utah during the regular season, but it would probably need to finish as a one-loss conference champion, depending on what happens elsewhere.
Washington and Oregon, though, just got more interesting. The Huskies are 3-0 and coming off a statement win against No. 11 Michigan State. Oregon has since recovered from its season-opening loss to Georgia, and Saturday's 41-20 win against BYU was a boost for the Pac-12.
USC is a trendy new playoff pick, but it might be worth staying up late again to see if they beat Oregon State.