This year's college football coaching carousel has been active early on, but not necessarily surprising.
Power 5 coaches have lost their jobs in each of the past three weeks, as Georgia Tech's Geoff Collins joined Arizona State's Herm Edwards and Nebraska's Scott Frost. But Collins, Edwards and Frost were three of the four coaches who entered the season on the hottest of seats, and were widely expected to lose their jobs at some point. The fourth, Auburn's Bryan Harsin, could have joined him if Missouri had not fumbled a likely game-winning play in overtime last week at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Harsin could be out if Auburn falls to LSU on Saturday.
So while the timing of the three changes so far is notable, the names are not. This year's carousel still likely won't match a 2021-22 carousel that featured 29 total changes, 14 at Power 5 schools, and moves at three of the seven winningest programs in the sport's history. LSU, USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon, Miami and Washington all had vacancies, and Michigan almost did.
The upcoming cycle should be quieter, or at least standard, although a surprise -- or two -- is almost guaranteed. Coaching buzz will be here to provide regular updates about coaches, scenarios and games to watch.
The latest buzz (Sept. 28)
The theme of the modern coaching carousel is: When you know, you know. Programs are not waiting around to let coaches work out of early struggles, especially when they haven't provided much evidence of why they should stick around. Coaching agents say the anxiety they typically feel in late October/early November has started well before the end of September.
Frost, Edwards and Collins were all fired following losses to Group of 5 teams (to be fair, Georgia Tech's loss to UCF is much more forgivable than Nebraska's to Georgia Southern or Arizona State's to Eastern Michigan).
The immediate spotlight shifts to Auburn, where Harsin likely finds himself in another must-win situation. Here's a snapshot of the key coaching situations to watch coming out of Week 4 and entering Week 5.
Bryan Harsin, Auburn: If Auburn had lost to Missouri, a game it led 14-0 after 12 minutes, Harsin might not have survived the weekend with his job. Thanks to Missouri's overtime goal-line fumble, he gets at least another week on the Plains, but needs a strong showing Saturday against LSU. Industry sources continue to say interim athletic director Rich McGlynn is a strong candidate to land the permanent job, and could handle the Harsin firing and the initial part of a coaching search. Auburn's defense played much better against Missouri than the week before against Penn State, but Harsin's offense has scored more than 24 points just once in four games.
Karl Dorrell, Colorado: The Buffs started their third quarterback -- true freshman Owen McCown -- in four games and generated a smidge of optimism with 10 second-quarter points against UCLA. But things fell apart in the second half as UCLA scored 24 unanswered points to pull away. Colorado has been outscored 132-37 and remains the only Power 5 team without a win. Dorrell doesn't have any answers right now, and few think he'll make it through October with his job. Colorado isn't financially flush, but unless the team shows some sign of improvement, it will need to make a change. The Buffs next visit Arizona, which has only two wins against Power 5 opponents in the past three seasons.
Scott Satterfield, Louisville: Satterfield's team handled its business last week, pounding South Florida 41-3. The Cardinals are in a critical portion of the schedule where they can rack up wins before a much more difficult closing stretch. Louisville on Saturday visits struggling Boston College, which is also 0-2 in the ACC. A trip to Virginia follows before Louisville closes with five consecutive ranked ACC opponents plus James Madison, which is 3-0 after rallying past September darling Appalachian State. So Satterfield needs wins now. An even bigger factor could be whether Louisville thinks it can land Purdue coach Jeff Brohm, who would be the school's clear No. 1 choice if it chooses to make a coaching change.
Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri: The cruel reality of a game like Missouri-Auburn is that while the result might have saved Harsin for a little while longer, it turned up the pressure on Drinkwitz. He's 13-14 at Missouri and has lost some of the momentum from his debut season in 2020, when the Tigers won five of six games while playing an All-SEC schedule. Drinkwitz is likelier to return in 2023 than others on this list, but Missouri's response to the heartbreaking loss will be worth watching. After hosting No. 1 Georgia this week, the Tigers begin a key stretch of winnable games: Florida (road), Vanderbilt (home), South Carolina (road). Drinkwitz is in Year 3 of a six-year contract.
Andy Avalos, Boise State: Avalos entered the season with zero job pressure, but things are spiraling quickly for him. A 27-10 loss at UTEP in which Boise State generated only 177 yards prompted Avalos to fire offensive coordinator Tim Plough and replace him with former Boise State coach Dirk Koetter. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier, who has 29 career starts at Boise State, will enter the transfer portal after being benched in a season-opening loss to Oregon State. Avalos, a former Boise State linebacker and assistant, seemed like a strong fit at his alma mater, but must turn things around soon. He's in the second year of a five-year contract and was hired by current athletic director Jeramiah Dickey. Boise State hosts San Diego State and Fresno State before visiting Air Force.
Jeff Scott, South Florida: USF isn't motivated to make a change. Why else would the school give Scott a contract extension in January following a two-win season? But Scott is making it harder to see a path forward, especially after results like last week's 38-point loss at Louisville. South Florida trailed 28-0 at halftime, committed three turnovers and was outgained 542-158. A nonconference schedule that included BYU, Florida and Louisville did Scott no favors, but USF hasn't shown much progress. The Bulls need a win this week against East Carolina at home before visiting Cincinnati and then hosting a Tulane team that beat Kansas State.
Other situations to watch: West Virginia's Neal Brown secured a much-needed dominant win last week over Virginia Tech, but now enters an important stretch beginning Saturday at Texas. The overall strength of the Big 12 could work against Brown and WVU's chances of making a bowl game. Brown's biggest ally remains a contract that would pay him more than $16 million if fired this season. ... Navy got its first win of the season against East Carolina in overtime, momentarily reducing the pressure on coach Ken Niumatalolo. A trip to Air Force is next, where Navy hasn't won since 2012. ... Bowling Green coach Scot Loeffler, who missed last week's loss to Mississippi State because of health reasons, is set to return for this week's MAC opener at Akron. The Falcons have a big win over Marshall but need to show progress in league play, where Loeffler is just 4-17. ... Texas State improved to 2-2 by shutting out Houston Christian, but the schedule cranks up significantly for coach Jake Spavital as the Bobcats open Sun Belt play with James Madison (road), Appalachian State (home) and Troy (road).
October hot seat games to watch
LSU at Auburn, Oct. 1: If Harsin is going to make a job-saving run, it must begin against LSU. A loss could seal his fate as Auburn's coach, especially an ugly one. Auburn also must show tangible progress on offense. After LSU, Auburn faces three consecutive ranked opponents, beginning with No. 1 Georgia on Oct. 8 in Athens.
Colorado at Arizona, Oct. 1: Colorado has looked downright awful, but its four losses have come against good teams (combined record: 14-1). Arizona is improved at 2-2, but coach Jedd Fisch has only two wins against FBS opponents. An ugly Buffaloes defeat could spell the end for Dorrell, especially since Colorado enters an open week before hosting Cal on Oct. 15.
Louisville at Virginia, Oct. 8: Satterfield's team first must take care of business at struggling Boston College, but wins in Chestnut Hill and then Charlottesville would propel the Cardinals into their open week at 4-2. A loss in either game, though, would make bowl eligibility much less likely. Louisville's second-half schedule features teams with a combined current record of 21-2, although four games will take place at home.
Fresno State at Boise State, Oct. 8: There's still time for Avalos to turn things around, especially if Boise State can defend the blue turf. After opening with three of four games on the road, Boise State will travel just once (Oct. 22 at Air Force) between now and Nov. 12. If Fresno State start quarterback Jake Haener (ankle) is out, Boise State needs to take advantage and settle things down with a win.
Appalachian State at Texas State, Oct. 8: Spavital's team has struggled on the road and looked strong on its home field early this season. The Bobcats open the month with a difficult trip to James Madison, but then return home for a notable opponent in Appalachian State, which shocked Texas A&M in its last trip to the state. A win would really help Spavital show that progress is happening under his watch.
Tulane at South Florida, Oct. 15: USF likely will be more patient with Scott than others on the list, but he needs to show progress soon, especially at home. The Bulls' October road games (Cincinnati, Houston) will be difficult, so beating East Carolina and/or Tulane would go a long way toward helping Scott, who is 1-14 in AAC play.
Vanderbilt at Missouri, Oct. 22: Perhaps the Auburn loss will be the turning point for Drinkwitz, but he has time to turn things around. No one expects Missouri to knock off top-ranked Georgia this week, and a trip to Florida won't be easy. But if the Tigers stumble against Vanderbilt on their home field, Drinkwitz would be in real trouble, especially given Missouri's tough closing stretch in the SEC (Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas).
West Virginia at Texas Tech, Oct. 22: Earlier wins against Texas (road) or defending Big 12 champion Baylor (home) certainly would help Brown, but games like Texas Tech are the ones West Virginia fans think they should be winning in Year 4 of his tenure. He's certainly on more secure footing than other coaches listing here, but the big thing working against him is a 11-17 record in conference play.
Young coaches to watch
The number of big-name coordinators who landed head-coaching jobs last year will shift the spotlight toward a new wave of young coaches. Here are nine under 40 to know for the upcoming jobs cycle.
Houston defensive coordinator Doug Belk (34): Belk has drawn positive reviews in athletic director and search firm circles, and should soon be positioned to lead his own program. The Georgia native spent three seasons on Alabama's staff as a graduate assistant before launching his career under Dana Holgorsen at West Virginia and now Houston. His success last season leading Houston's "Third Ward Defense" significantly boosted his profile, although Houston's 1-2 start this season could slow things down. Like Marcus Freeman while he was at Cincinnati, Belk has shown that coordinators can carve out names for themselves in the Group of 5. Unlike Freeman, he doesn't necessarily need to take a bigger coordinator job to put himself in position as a head-coaching candidate.
Miami offensive coordinator Josh Gattis (38): Gattis has built his profile at big-name programs, spending time at Penn State, Alabama and Michigan, where last year he won the Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant. But he still might need a strong season (or two) as Miami's offensive coordinator to put himself in position for a Power 5 head-coaching opportunity. Gattis has held some type of coordinator title -- offensive, passing game or recruiting -- since he worked at Vanderbilt in 2012. After feeling underappreciated by Michigan's administration at the end of his time there, he gets a fresh start at Miami and the chance to reprove himself.
Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh (38): Golesh is a good example of a coach mainly known for his recruiting chops who then forged his own path as an offensive tactician. He came up through the Tim Beckman-Matt Campbell tree, working with both at Toledo, Beckman at Illinois and then Campbell at Iowa State, where he was recruiting coordinator from 2016 to 2019. But he changed his career path by breaking away to join Josh Heupel, first at UCF and then Tennessee. Golesh called plays last fall as Tennessee produced its most exciting offense in years. He hasn't lost his passion for recruiting, either. Another solid year should put Golesh in position as a legitimate head-coaching candidate.
Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard (39): The question with Leonhard isn't about capability but movability. He probably would be an FBS head coach by now if he wanted to leave his home state and his alma mater. In February 2021, he turned down an offer to become the Green Bay Packers' defensive coordinator. Leonhard seems content to wait out boss Paul Chryst at Wisconsin, even if he takes a while. Would he entertain a job like Nebraska? Schools won't stop trying.
Oregon offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham (32): Dillingham is a fascinating coaching case study. He has been a coordinator since 2018, but, because of his head coach affiliations -- Mike Norvell at Memphis and Florida State, Gus Malzahn at Auburn -- hasn't been directly linked to his teams' offensive performance. Dillingham finally gets that chance alongside close friend Dan Lanning at Oregon, and scored a big win last week against BYU. While young, he has the charisma and intelligence to soon lead his own program, and could get a look at Arizona State, his alma mater, and possibly Colorado. But he needs to put his imprint on Oregon's offense beginning this fall.
Ohio State wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator Brian Hartline (35): He's not a playcaller yet but has established himself as one of the most impactful assistants in the sport. The former Ohio State wide receiver has made his alma mater the premier destination for wideouts during the past four-plus seasons. Hartline likely could be a Group of 5 head coach by now if he wanted to, and will gain more consideration in the upcoming cycle. Like Leonhard, he might be tough to move from his alma mater. He recently told ESPN he has a "narrow funnel" for college jobs. Ultimately, the NFL could be more enticing.
Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby (38): Lebby begins his third coordinator stint, this time at his alma mater, after success at both Ole Miss and UCF. He came up in the Baylor offense but has since branched out and overseen productive quarterbacks such as Dillon Gabriel and Matt Corral. Lebby now reunites with Gabriel at OU and can distinguish himself while working under a defensive-minded coach in Brent Venables. His ties to Baylor and Art Briles (his father-in-law) might turn off some schools, but continued on-field results will help his chances to lead a program.
West Virginia offensive coordinator Graham Harrell (37): Harrell's stock dipped a bit as USC careened toward an inevitable coaching change. But he mostly delivered on the reasons USC hired him. The Trojans ranked sixth nationally in passing during Harrell's three seasons as coordinator and set multiple team passing marks in 2019. Harrell can get back on the head-coaching radar if he sparks West Virginia's offense and JT Daniels, ironically the first quarterback he had at USC. He should be in the mix for potential Group of 5 jobs such as North Texas, where he served as offensive coordinator from 2016 to 2018.
Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters (36): Walters has held a coordinator title since 2016 and made his mark in his first season at Illinois, which improved across the board on defense. Illinois rewarded Walters with a new contract that pushes his annual salary above $1 million. He has followed up with an excellent start to Year 2, as Illinois hasn't allowed a touchdown in three home games (all wins). The former Colorado safety and team captain likely will be one of the top candidates if the CU job opens up.
Rating the retreads
Last year's carousel included a run on first-time head coaches, as 14 of the 29 hires received their initial opportunities (non-interim). But the group also included five hires of assistants with head-coaching experience, and two hires -- Fresno State's Jeff Tedford and UConn's Jim Mora -- who weren't working last season but had been head coaches previously. Clay Helton was fired (USC) and hired (Georgia Southern) in the same cycle.
There's no substitute for head-coaching experience, especially for risk-averse administrators making the hires. Don't be surprised if the upcoming cycle includes several hires in the Tedford-Mora category, as well as some in the Joe Moorhead-Mike MacIntyre category. Let's take a look.
Currently not coaching
Justin Fuente
Age: 46
Head-coaching résumé: 43-31 at Virginia Tech (six seasons), 26-23 at Memphis (four seasons), 69-54 overall (10 seasons)
After 19 wins in his first two seasons at Virginia Tech, Fuente ultimately couldn't break through. But his overall profile -- 38 wins and three AP Top 25 finishes from 2014 to 2017 -- will interest some schools, especially given his background on offense and ties to certain areas. Fuente could be a strong candidate if North Texas opens, as he knows athletic director Wren Baker from their time at Memphis, and worked in the area at TCU from 2007 to 2011.
Skip Holtz
Age: 58
Head-coaching résumé: 64-50 at Louisiana Tech (nine seasons), 16-21 at South Florida (three seasons), 38-27 at East Carolina (five seasons), 34-23 at UConn (five seasons), 152-121 overall (22 seasons)
Holtz brings a trove of experience in the FBS, and, aside from South Florida, had success at every spot. Several industry sources said they felt he got a raw deal at Louisiana Tech, where he reached seven consecutive bowl games (six wins) before struggling last fall. Holtz had been in the mix for Power 5 jobs but likely would be in line for Group of 5 opportunities, given his career path.
Tom Herman
Age: 47
Head-coaching résumé: 32-18 at Texas (four seasons), 22-4 at Houston (two seasons), 54-22 overall (six seasons)
After spending 2021 as a Chicago Bears analyst, Herman will be a broadcast analyst for CBS Sports Network this season. A return to the college sideline seems likely in the next year or two. Herman couldn't generate the breakthrough Texas wanted, but he recorded a top-10 finish in 2018 and bowl wins in each of his four seasons there. He has never had a losing season as a head coach, and has extensive Texas ties as well as stops at Iowa State and Ohio State.
Dan Mullen
Age: 50
Head-coaching résumé: 34-15 at Florida (four seasons), 69-46 at Mississippi State (nine seasons), 103-61 overall (12 seasons)
Mullen wasn't on any hot-seat lists a year ago, but things fell off sharply for him at Florida. He has joined ESPN as a studio analyst for the 2022 season, a role many think will suit him well. Mullen certainly has the profile to land another Power 5 job if he wants one. The question with him has more to do with motivation. Mullen's NFL interest wasn't a secret during his time at Florida, and he's not a tireless recruiter. Does he still want a part of today's college game?
Currently coaching
Manny Diaz, Penn State defensive coordinator
Age: 48
Head-coaching résumé: 21-15 at Miami and overall (three seasons)
Diaz didn't immediately turn Miami into an ACC contender, but he ultimately was left in a difficult spot by the school as it chased Mario Cristobal. There are administrators who would give Diaz a chance under the right circumstances. He can enhance his profile at Penn State, which will mark his fifth Power 5 stint as a defensive coordinator. Diaz might want to log more than one year in State College before reentering the head-coaching market.
Matt Wells, Oklahoma analyst
Age: 49
Head-coaching résumé: 13-17 at Texas Tech (three seasons), 44-34 at Utah State (six seasons), 57-51 overall (nine seasons)
Several industry sources mentioned Wells as a reboot head-coaching candidate. He was fired before the end of his third (and best) season at Texas Tech, which ultimately became a bad fit for him. He twice won 10 games at Utah State and won Mountain West Coach of the Year twice. Wells would make sense for vacancies in the Mountain West, AAC or Conference USA.
Barry Odom, Arkansas defensive coordinator
Age: 45
Head-coaching résumé: 25-25 at Missouri and overall (four seasons)
Odom undoubtedly has helped his profile the past two seasons, reviving Arkansas to SEC respectability alongside Sam Pittman. If the Razorbacks' defense navigates a tough schedule and maintains its trajectory, Odom should start generating head-coaching interest again. If the Memphis post opens, he could be an option, as he nearly landed the job in 2015 and spent three seasons as the team's defensive coordinator.
Al Golden, Notre Dame defensive coordinator
Age: 53
Head-coaching résumé: 32-25 at Miami (five seasons), 27-34 at Temple (five seasons), 59-59 overall (10 seasons)
Golden is back in the college game for the first time since his dismissal at Miami, as he spent the past six seasons with the NFL's Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals. His defense held up well in Week 1's opener at Ohio State, keeping the powerful Buckeyes offense out of the end zone until the final minute of the third quarter. Despite some late struggles, Notre Dame held Ohio State to less than 400 yards and only 21 points. The team's past three defensive coordinators -- current head coach Marcus Freeman, Clark Lea (Vanderbilt) and Mike Elko (Duke) -- are all Power 5 head coaches, and none could match Golden's experience. Golden was a great fit at Temple but not Miami, and ultimately would need the right job to open, most likely in the Eastern half of the country. But he could emerge as an interesting name to watch.