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College football bowl projections: Matchups for playoff, New Year's Six

Week 3 of the college football season brought a major flex by the top teams, with Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Clemson all rolling to decisive routs. Other results, including losses by Michigan State, Miami and BYU, will be felt in the New Year's Six games and the bowl matchups further down the pecking order.

ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach return with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP picture and which teams helped and hurt their causes the most over the weekend.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Georgia

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. USC
Schlabach: Georgia vs. USC

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Alabama

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: The only team in the AP top 10 that didn't win convincingly was No. 10 Arkansas, which isn't exactly a formula for shaking up the CFP picture. There are two main questions to consider: (1) Ohio State or Michigan? (2) Who is No. 4?

Michigan has played three bad teams (Colorado State, Hawai'i and UConn), so while scoring 50-plus in each game catches the eye, it's too early to have a great sense of how that will translate when the degree of difficulty levels up. Picking Michigan ahead of Ohio State is defensible, but we'll stick with Ohio State for at least another week (the most likely scenario is that there will be room for only one of them).

As for No. 4, pick one of USC, Oklahoma or Clemson. From this vantage point, USC has been the most impressive, but not by a significant margin. There are strong cases to be made for both Oklahoma and Clemson, with all three winning each of their games comfortably.

Schlabach: Defending national champion Georgia continues to look impressive -- maybe even better than last season's team that ended the program's 41-year drought without a national title. Quarterback Stetson Bennett is playing like a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, and the defense hasn't missed a beat after having five starters from 2021 selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Ohio State and Alabama were equally explosive in dominant wins over Louisiana-Monroe and Toledo, respectively. I replaced Oklahoma with USC for my fourth spot for now. The Trojans are already firing on all cylinders under coach Lincoln Riley, scoring 152 points in their first three games. Next week's trip to Oregon State might be sneaky difficult, though.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Penn State

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Tennessee

Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Appalachian State

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Utah
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon


Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Kent State

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Marshall vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Rice

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Tulane
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Houston

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Texas Tech

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCLA vs. Boise State
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Boise State

LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. San Diego State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oregon State vs. Florida
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. Texas A&M

Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Rice
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Wyoming

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Middle Tennessee State

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Kent State
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Georgia Southern

Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. UCF

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Army vs. Houston
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Liberty

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Purdue vs. UAB

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UAB vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Air Force

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Rutgers vs. Central Michigan

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: SMU vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Memphis vs. BYU

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arizona vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Mississippi State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Iowa

Dec. 28

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. UCF
Schlabach: Duke vs. SMU

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. South Carolina

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: NC State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Washington

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Ole Miss


Team whose stock took the biggest hit

Bonagura: Arkansas. Maybe it's harsh to slot a team here after a win, but Arkansas has received some CFP buzz, and teams in that conversation shouldn't struggle at home against FCS teams, even good ones. Arkansas needed to erase a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Missouri State. It's not a loss -- so it obviously could have been worse -- but let's pump the breaks on Arkansas a bit.

Schlabach: I wondered whether Michigan State would be able to reload after last season's 11-2 breakthrough under coach Mel Tucker. The Spartans' ugly 39-28 loss at Washington on Saturday isn't a good sign. The game wasn't as close as the score might indicate. The Huskies led 22-0 midway through the second quarter. Washington piled up 503 yards of offense, including 397 passing. Michigan State ran for just 42 yards. The early results suggest Big Ten East foes Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State might be better than the Spartans. Michigan State also plays Minnesota and Wisconsin, who might be the best teams from the West Division.


Dec. 29

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Wisconsin

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Miami vs. Texas

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. Washington
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Utah


Team that helped its cause the most

Bonagura: Washington. Coming off a miserable 4-8 campaign, the Huskies were mostly an afterthought as this season began. However, after an impressive 39-28 win against Michigan State, Kalen DeBoer has the Huskies looking like Pac-12 title contenders. No team in the country improved its stock more in Week 3.

Schlabach: Oregon was left for dead after its ugly 49-3 loss to Georgia in Atlanta in the season opener. The Ducks weren't competitive in coach Dan Lanning's first game, but give them credit for bouncing back. Oregon crushed FCS program Eastern Washington 70-14 last week, then took down No. 12 BYU 41-20 at home Saturday. The Oregon offense was balanced and the defense surrendered only 61 rushing yards to the Cougars. The Ducks are right back in the Pac-12 championship hunt.


Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Purdue
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Maryland

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Cal

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pitt vs. LSU
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Florida

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: UNLV vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Dec. 31

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. LSU

Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: NC State vs. Kentucky

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Arkansas