Staff changes and roster movement have led to head-spinning this offseason, but fans can still expect many of the same College Football Playoff contenders this fall. While much will change between now and Labor Day, these games will undoubtedly influence the selection committee's final top four.
Nonconference wins against ranked opponents provide opportunities to separate contenders in the committee meeting room through November. There is still an emphasis, though, on winning a conference title -- which can help compensate for an early season loss in one of those blockbuster matchups. That's why this list is a combination of both.
Here's a look at the top 10 games that will have the biggest impact on the CFP, ranked in order from the greatest impact to the least.
1. Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 26
How the committee will evaluate it: Last year, The Game knocked Ohio State out of the playoff race. In 2016, it helped Ohio State earn a trip to a semifinal when it didn't win the Big Ten. That year, the Buckeyes lost on Oct. 22 to eventual Big Ten champion Penn State, but overcame that loss thanks in large part to an early win at Oklahoma and a double-overtime win against No. 3 Michigan. The Buckeyes finished No. 3 on a controversial call on fourth-and-1 that helped push them into a semifinal. ("That was not a first down," Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said after the game, adding that he was "bitterly disappointed with the officiating.")
Last year, Michigan overcame its Oct. 30 loss at Michigan State and earned its first semifinal appearance because it beat the Buckeyes -- a must-win en route to the conference championship. In 2018 and 2021, it was a winner-take-all for the East division. The Big Ten East winner has won the conference every season during the CFP era (8-0), and it again enters 2022 as the stronger division (sorry, Iowa fans).
It's not impossible, but it's extremely difficult and unlikely for the committee to leave out a one-loss or undefeated Big Ten champion (Penn State is still cringing) and this game could again determine the Big Ten East division winner.
Michigan State certainly might have something to say about this (see: No. 7 on this list), but until proved otherwise, the Big Ten's East division race -- and the Big Ten's path to the playoff -- boils down to these rivals. Based on the impressive performance from a depleted Ohio State team in the Rose Bowl win against Utah and coach Ryan Day's quiet but impactful offseason coaching hires, the Buckeyes should be a preseason CFP favorite -- if they can win the Big Ten. We saw what happened last year when they lost to Oregon and Michigan. Similarly, Ohio State can't lose to Notre Dame and Michigan this year.
Speaking of Notre Dame and Ohio State ...
2. Notre Dame at Ohio State, Sept. 3
How the committee will evaluate it: This is more about Notre Dame's path to the playoff than Ohio State's. As an independent, Notre Dame faces a higher burden of proof in the committee meeting room, because it doesn't have a conference championship to help boost its resume or compensate for a loss. As soon as the Irish lose a game, they know they have no more margin for error and are going to need some help. However, a season-opening win at Ohio State could be exactly what the Irish need to finish in the top four -- especially if the Buckeyes go on to win the Big Ten. Remember how much the committee valued Cincinnati's win at Notre Dame last year -- all season long? A Notre Dame win at Ohio State could do the exact same thing for the Irish. Depending on how it all plays out, it might even help them overcome a stumble along the way.
It's a different scenario for the Buckeyes. Ohio State's loss to Oregon last year didn't keep it out of the CFP -- its loss to Michigan did. If this is Ohio State's only loss of the season, and the Buckeyes go on to win the Big Ten, they will probably still finish in the top four. Where it could hurt Ohio State is in a head-to-head debate. Undefeated Notre Dame is in. Can the one-loss Buckeyes join them? Sure, but it depends on what the other Power 5 champions look like. If Ohio State and Notre Dame were both to finish with one loss, the committee could wind up ranking Ohio State ahead of Notre Dame despite the head-to-head because of its conference title. It obviously depends on how they both look in wins and how the game unfolds. Without Clemson controlling the ACC, with major upheaval at Oklahoma, and the Pac-12 still searching for a dominant team, the odds are in Ohio State's favor to join Notre Dame as Big Ten champ. (Unless, of course, the Buckeyes lose to Michigan.)
3. Georgia vs. Oregon (Atlanta), Sept. 3
How the committee will evaluate it: First-year Oregon coach Dan Lanning just won a national title as Georgia's defensive coordinator. So, yeah, this one is going to be interesting.
It's more of an opportunity for Oregon and the entire Pac-12 than it is a make-or-break game for Georgia's CFP hopes. The Ducks should still be the favorite in the Pac-12 North, but games against BYU and Utah will be particularly difficult. A win against Georgia in the opener would impress the committee members through the entire season -- but only if the Ducks can build on it. Last year's win at Ohio State could have been far more significant, but Oregon's losses to Stanford and Utah during the regular season ultimately outweighed it.
On paper, the defending national champs should need this win to impress the committee if they don't win the SEC (again). Georgia's other nonconference games are against Samford, Kent State and Georgia Tech -- opponents that won't elicit much more than a shoulder shrug from the committee members. Their crossover games are against Auburn and at Mississippi State, which should be wins if the Bulldogs are a true playoff contender.
But if Georgia loses to Oregon and loses again during the regular season, it can still win the SEC East -- but it would then likely have to win the SEC championship game to finish in the top four as a two-loss team. The reality is that if Georgia wins the SEC, its strength of schedule and this game will be a moot point as far as any debates go -- but that's only if the Bulldogs go undefeated or finish with one loss.
4. Texas A&M at Alabama, Oct. 8
How the committee will evaluate it: This is a chance for Texas A&M to take the lead in the SEC West, put the pressure on Alabama to run the table (again) and show the committee it can win on the road against what's likely to be a top-five team. Unlike last year, though, the Aggies have to keep winning to make it worth more than bragging rights. Both Texas A&M (vs. Miami) and Alabama (at Texas) have tricky September nonconference games that could make this one even bigger should they come into it with a loss.
There has never been a lack of appreciation in the committee meeting room for the SEC's strength of schedule, so the loser of this game is certainly not out of the playoff conversation if it's the only loss of the season. We have seen Alabama finish in the top four without winning its division before -- and we've seen Alabama lose this game and go on to run the table and win the SEC. Alabama was able to overcome its loss to the Aggies last year because it won out and Texas A&M finished with three league losses. Despite Alabama's loss last year, the pressure remains squarely on Jimbo Fisher not only to win this game again, but to make it count through November.
5. NC State at Clemson, Oct. 1
How the committee will evaluate it: For NC State, this is a must-win (at least as of February) because it's on the road against what will likely be a ranked opponent and one of the few opportunities to impress the committee. With a nonconference lineup that includes East Carolina, Charleston Southern, Texas Tech and UConn, NC State will have to win the ACC to have a shot at the top four, and Clemson is still standing in the way. This game should reveal the leader in the Atlantic Division and how seriously to take the Wolfpack as a possible playoff contender. Even as a one-loss ACC champion, there's no guarantee for NC State because of its strength of schedule. If the other Power 5 champions have a better resume -- and/or Notre Dame is in the mix -- the ACC champion could be snubbed for a second straight season.
Clemson is no longer a given as the ACC's best team, so this is a critical game for the Tigers, too. Pitt won the 2021 conference title, and NC State should be a preseason favorite this fall with 19 starters returning. Clemson will have home-field advantage against NC State one week after a tricky trip to Wake Forest. Clemson's toughest game is Nov. 5 at Notre Dame, and it ends the regular season as always, against rival South Carolina. Coach Shane Beamer has the program trending upward. Clemson's strength of schedule won't be much of a factor in the committee meeting room if the Tigers win the ACC and beat Notre Dame and South Carolina along the way. They'll either need to knock off NC State or get some help along the way.
6. USC at Utah, Oct. 15
How the committee will evaluate it: Utah's season opener at Florida is a critical nonconference game that can help the winner's playoff résumé, but it's not on the list because the Utes' path to the playoff will be determined by their ability to dominate their conference. The first-year coach Utah needs to worry about is Lincoln Riley at USC -- not Billy Napier at Florida or Dan Lanning at Oregon -- because the Utes have to win their division to get back to the conference championship game. Riley appears to be positioning his program to make that more difficult.
This game is equally important for USC, which has a realistic chance to be 6-0 heading to Utah. If the Trojans can pick up a road win against what would likely be the Pac-12's highest-ranked team, it would impress the committee and could position itself as the league's best hope at a playoff contender.
Still, the defending Pac-12 champs should be the conference favorite, because it has the pieces in place to build upon last year's 8-1 conference record that included two wins against Oregon.
7. Michigan at Michigan State, Oct. 29
How the committee will evaluate it: The Spartans' 37-33 win over Michigan last year led to one of the most controversial rankings of the season: the committee's decision to rank Michigan ahead of Michigan State despite that win. Ultimately, it was validated because the Spartans went on to lose two of their next four games. So why does it matter this time? Because it's still a critical rivalry game that can knock either team out of the Big Ten East Division lead and in turn, the playoff. There is certainly more pressure on the Spartans, even though they had the upper hand last year. If Mel Tucker is going to take the program to the next level and contend for the Big Ten, it's going to need to survive an October stretch that includes three straight games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and at Michigan. If Michigan State finishes that stretch 3-0, a top-four finish should be its to lose.
8. Miami at Texas A&M, Sept. 17
How the committee will evaluate it: This is the only Power 5 nonconference opponent the Aggies will face in an otherwise unimpressive lineup that includes Sam Houston, Appalachian State and UMass. If Texas A&M doesn't win the SEC West, it certainly can't afford to lose this game and expect to earn a semifinal spot. Plus, if the Aggies don't beat the Canes, they are then going to be under tremendous pressure to win out against an SEC schedule that includes three straight road trips in October -- at Mississippi State, at Alabama, then a bye week before traveling to South Carolina.
The true value of an Aggies win or loss in Week 3 depends in large part on how Miami fares this season under first-year coach Mario Cristobal, but his hires of defensive coordinator Kevin Steele and offensive coordinator Josh Gattis might make this game more interesting than the Canes' matchup against Alabama last year. This is a new-look Miami team with an opportunity to win a wide-open Coastal Division and an upset on the road against Texas A&M could change the narrative around the U quickly.
9. Oklahoma State at Baylor, Oct. 1
How the committee will evaluate it: See: 2021. Oklahoma State was inches away from serious consideration for a playoff spot last fall after coming up short against Baylor in the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma State knocked off both Baylor and Oklahoma during the regular season, but Dezmon Jackson came up just short on a fourth-down dive in the final seconds of the Big 12 title game.
If Oklahoma State is going to take the next step this fall, it starts here. The Cowboys should be 3-0 heading into this game, their first real test of the season. Baylor has a much more challenging start, with road trips to BYU and Iowa State in its first three games. As consequential as this game is to the Big 12 race, the loser can certainly still win the league (as evidenced by Baylor last year), but the winner is in a better position to reach both the Big 12 title game and the CFP, while the loser will be under enormous pressure to win out.
10. Cincinnati at Arkansas, Sept. 3
How the committee will evaluate it: It'll know immediately if the fairy tale is over. Cincinnati, coming off its historic season as the first Group of 5 team to make the CFP, opens 2022 without quarterback Desmond Ridder and against an Arkansas team that has improved vastly under coach Sam Pittman. If the Bearcats are going to be taken seriously as a playoff contender again, this is a must-win game, because nothing else on their schedule will top a road win against what should be a ranked SEC team. It could carry a similar value to last year's win at Notre Dame -- but that's only if Cincinnati can again make a historic run as an undefeated American Athletic Conference champion.