On July 14, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby concluded his remarks at the league's preseason media days with a line about conference realignment.
"It doesn't appear to me that the motivation is there at this point in time," Bowlsby said at AT&T Stadium near Dallas. "Not to say it couldn't happen, but it's not one of the things that keeps me up at night."
A week later, news broke that Oklahoma and Texas, the Big 12's most historic powers and biggest brands, were set to leave for the SEC. The impending departures left anger and bitterness throughout the Big 12, as well as valid questions about the league's viability without the Sooners and Longhorns.
On Dec. 4, the Big 12 returned to AT&T Stadium for its championship game. The epic contest went down to the final play, as Baylor kept Oklahoma State's Dezmon Jackson out of the end zone to win 21-16. The game recorded the third-highest television rating (4.83) among the Power 5 title games -- well ahead of the Pac-12 (2.46) and ACC (2.04) -- and drew 65,771 fans, the second-largest crowd since the event returned in 2017 after a seven-year hiatus.
"You look back to the summer, and it almost felt like, 'Well, if Oklahoma or Texas aren't playing in the championship game, then nobody's going to be there and nobody's going to watch,'" Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades told ESPN. "That was kind of the conversation and maybe the interpretation of the future of the league. That obviously isn't the case. People are fired up about Oklahoma State football and fired up about Baylor football, and certainly the rest of the league as well.
"That is a glimpse of what the Big 12 can be."
After the doom-and-gloom of late summer, the vibe around the league is better now. Both Oklahoma State and Baylor recorded New Year's Six bowl wins, and the league produced the best bowl record (5-2) of the Power 5 conferences. Although the Big 12 missed the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season, one of its future members, Cincinnati, became the first Group of 5 team to reach the CFP.
The Big 12's four future members -- Cincinnati, Houston, BYU and UCF -- had a combined record of 44-10. All but UCF placed in the top 20 of the final AP poll.
"The mood is good, it's upbeat," Bowlsby told ESPN. "It was a wild fall in a lot of ways, but it turned out pretty well. Everyone is excited about the future."
The Big 12's future won't be without challenges, but the schools that will make up the future league sense the momentum of the moment. They also know they need to capitalize.
"There's an opportunity for this league to be really, really good," Rhoades said. "I'll be as bold as saying: It could be better than what we are today."
Oklahoma State's power play
Mike Gundy stood on a stage at State Farm Stadium, overlooking his Oklahoma State team and a grandstand filled with jubilant fans in orange and black.
Oklahoma State had just defeated Notre Dame 37-35 on New Year's Day in the Fiesta Bowl, completing its largest comeback ever (21 points down in the second quarter). Gundy would later label the win the biggest in team history, but in the immediate aftermath, he delivered a more sweeping and memorable message about Oklahoma State.
"I understand Notre Dame, I understand their tradition, I understand the helmet and the logo, but we've got a logo, too," Gundy said, as the crowd erupted.
Gundy has spent most of his life around Oklahoma State: record-setting quarterback in the late 1980s, assistant from 1990 to 1995, offensive coordinator from 2001 to 2004 and head coach since 2005. He has coached 93 more games -- and won 87 more -- than anyone else in team history.
Perhaps no one has a better grasp of the Oklahoma State brand, specifically what it has been, what it is and what it could become.
"That gold helmet could be the most popular logo in college football, they've got a real brand," Gundy told ESPN last month, speaking of Notre Dame. "It gave me an opportunity to say we've worked for 18 years on this logo. People from coast to coast now can recognize this logo. I'm not saying we're in Notre Dame's class, but this is a recognizable logo.
"This game gave us a chance to establish ourselves and vault ourselves into the future, which is a new conference, at a pretty high level."
When Gundy surveys the future Big 12, he sees Oklahoma State as a potential kingpin.
Oklahoma State hasn't won the league since 2011, its lone conference title since 1976. But in the past 15 seasons, Oklahoma State ranks second in the league and 10th nationally in winning percentage at .711 (Oklahoma is third nationally at .804). Among current Big 12 members who will remain in the league, Oklahoma State has the most victories since 2007 with 138. TCU is next with 129 wins, tied for 14th nationally, but didn't join the Big 12 until 2012.
Baylor is tied for 23rd nationally in wins during the past decade (80). While Texas' impending departure will be a branding blow for the Big 12, the Longhorns are only 49th in wins (70) since 2012.
"Put all the schools down on paper and look at the success they've had -- the wins, the bowl games, all the stuff -- over 15 years, then Oklahoma State should be leading the charge," Gundy said. "I'm just going on success, the facts. That doesn't mean that we start on any higher level. What that means is if we push forward and make a strong commitment, then we could get to a high level in the new conference.
"I don't know if enough people really know the story and the success that Oklahoma State football has had."
Gundy wants Oklahoma State to embark on a strategic marketing plan that would highlight the program's long-term success. He's working closely with university president Kayse Shrum and athletic director Chad Weiberg, who both took over their roles in 2021, to address areas throughout the program, including facilities, ticket sales and staffing.
Longtime Oklahoma State mega-booster T. Boone Pickens died in 2019 at 91, but Gundy thinks there's a donor base capable of helping the program elevate its profile.
"We've got to find those people out there that really haven't been involved as much, who are appreciative and understand the commitment it's going to take as we move forward in new waters and are willing to say, 'I want to help,'" he said. "They're out there. There's a lot of Oklahoma State people that have done well in the corporate world and have money to invest and donate. But it really helps when you're winning and having success because people want to be a part of a winner.
"We've just got to get them generated and get them going."
Gundy looks at Clemson's rise as a model for Oklahoma State. From 2000 to 2014, Clemson had nine Top 25 finishes but only one top-10 and one ACC title. Then, Clemson made six consecutive CFP appearances, winning national championships in 2016 and 2018.
"They came up with a marketing plan; they liked [coach] Dabo [Swinney]; they started doing all these things to raise money and build facilities," Gundy said. "They enhanced their recruiting, had a few good years, pumped a ton of money in it. They established themselves.
"I would like to take this school, this athletic department, this football program, to a level that whenever I'm done and it's somebody else's job, they see Oklahoma State as a dominant football school."
Gundy likens the situation to a company trying to attract investors. Oklahoma State isn't a startup and he's not a new CEO, but the program is entering an important new phase. His goal is to make "continual facility upgrades," from a weight room to an academic center to new turf for fields.
He hopes increased financial commitments also will help Oklahoma State retain and attract top assistants. Gundy had seen many talented coordinators depart during his tenure -- Dana Holgorsen, Larry Fedora, Todd Monken -- and lost another when defensive coordinator Jim Knowles left for Ohio State. Oklahoma State replaced Knowles with Derek Mason, the former Vanderbilt coach and a proven, respected playcaller whose hire supports Gundy's vision for how Oklahoma State should approach the future Big 12.
"Clemson and Alabama, Ohio State and Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, USC, LSU, these schools have huge budgets," Gundy said. "At Oklahoma State, we've got to find a way to get as close as we can, move in that direction, knowing that our budget is not going to be like that right now."
New Big 12 members try to close infrastructure gap
While Oklahoma State and other Big 12 schools are using 2021 as a springboard to enhance their programs, the league's future members are preparing for their new home.
The goal for Cincinnati, BYU, UCF and Houston is to maintain on-field success, while catching up with infrastructure. Since 2007, all four programs rank in the Top 25 nationally in FBS wins, led by Cincinnati (134 wins, 11th nationally) and BYU (130 wins, tied for 12th). But the Group of 5-Power 5 transition can be rocky, even for established programs.
"It brings that excitement, but it's also a little scary because you realize 2023 is going to be jumping on us," BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe said. "If you're not where you really want to be, it's going to take you a while to get there."
BYU, an FBS independent since 2011, has many qualities of a Power 5 program. The Cougars have a national fan following and average more than 60,000 fans at home games. BYU boasts a national title in 1984 and five top-20 finishes since 2006, including each of the past two seasons. Last year, the team went 5-0 against Pac-12 opponents.
But behind the scenes, there's an operational gap to close.
"We try to be like a P5 on a Group of 5 budget," Holmoe said.
The good news for Holmoe is that BYU donors are ready to step up before the Big 12 move.
"We've been scratching for this for a long time, it's not all of a sudden," he said. "I don't think our fans, our donors or even internally, it's not like we're giddy. We had that giddiness for a week. Then, it was, 'We are in, now let's go, let's start getting ready.'"
The changes will come in areas such as football staff, where BYU is "a few numbers down" from every Big 12 program. Holmoe doesn't want to simply match Big 12 schools job for job, but rather add positions that can help BYU expand its recruiting reach and profile, beyond the core base of players with backgrounds from The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or from states such as Utah and Hawai'i.
"Without changing our identity, how do we improve our identity?" Holmoe said.
Like BYU, Houston has Power 5-ready elements in its program, starting at the top. Holgorsen, the school's head coach, left a Big 12 school (West Virginia) for Houston, which pays him competitively and pays defensive coordinator Doug Belk $1 million annually.
The next phase involves improving facilities, including a football operations center, and exploring ways to increase premium seating at TDECU Stadium.
"We're using the energy that's been created around the conference alignment to lean into our supporters about what we need to look like," athletic director Chris Pezman said. "People that were waiting on the sideline are absolutely engaged. It has opened up lines of communication, particularly on the corporate side."
Pezman said Houston's contracts for naming rights, multimedia rights and other areas all contained openers for renegotiation if the school changed conferences.
"As much as we're chasing donors or corporate money, we're also having very significant conversations with our partners about, 'OK, when we make this transition, what does our relationship look like?'" Pezman said. "This isn't rest-on-your-laurels time and everybody high-five. Really, this is the time you double down on your efforts.
"The hill was steep and now it just got steeper because of what we'll be competing against."
Shortly before entering the Big 12, UCF announced plans for a $50 million football campus that will allow athletes to live, eat, train and study in the same area. The campus will even include a recovery river and hydrotherapy pools. After the Big 12 news was announced, UCF athletic director Terry Mohajir parlayed some trips he took for American Athletic Conference events to tour athletic facilities at campuses such as TCU and Baylor.
The visits allowed Mohajir to craft strategies for fundraising, facilities marketing and other areas that will work for UCF.
"You have to see what other people have and create an athletic facility environment that is best for you," Mohajir said. "We don't have to build a $100 million football operations facility. We live in a very vibrant area, and you don't have to have everything into one building, like some of these more traditional college towns."
UCF hopes to capitalize on its location in Orlando, a growing media market that recently surpassed Miami, and a massive alumni base that skews young because the school is less than 60 years old. According to Athletic Director U's social media rankings, UCF ranks No. 2 nationally in weighted social media engagement, while Cincinnati ranks No. 5.
"Our fan base is getting younger, so social media, that's how you communicate," Mohajir said. "They're going right to their Twitter, their Instagram, their TikTok, for information. I believe we're as good as anybody in the country, but we're going to keep putting more resources to work."
Cincinnati is also emphasizing digital strategies to increase its audience, which grew substantially during the CFP run. Athletic director John Cunningham joked that "it's a fun time to walk into a donor's office," as Cincinnati raises funds for a new indoor practice facility and a larger $100 million capital campaign, which will address areas such as nutrition and athlete wellness.
Cunningham wants Cincinnati to be "Day 1-ready" when it enters the Big 12.
"When we walk into a donor's office, there is not a lot of explanation that needs to be laid out," Cunningham said. "You just say, 'We're trying to get here, this is what it's going to take.' And we have people who are passionate enough to help us out."
Coach Luke Fickell feels fortunate that the program will be well into his tenure when it joins the Big 12 in 2023. But there are areas to address, including staffing, as Cincinnati lost three assistants after last season to Power 5 programs (LSU, Ohio State and Notre Dame).
"A big deal is understanding we can't keep losing our coaches," Fickell said. "You've got to make sure you can maintain some consistency, being at that level, monetarily, that people in the Big 12 are. Then, a big-time piece is continuing to grow the facilities."
Like Houston and UCF, Cincinnati wants to use its market as an advantage before the Big 12 move, both for generating revenue and also NIL opportunities.
"The thing about being in a large city, with what we've done the last couple years, it's created a lot more interest," Fickell said. "Obviously, the diehards realize what's happening and they're going to be there, but we've got to do a better job at growing the amount of areas, people, corporations, who we can get involved."
Why there's belief in the new Big 12
The Oklahoma/Texas news was gutting to the Big 12, and it carried doomsday overtones for a conference that has been on shaky ground several times in its history. But much of what followed has generated genuine optimism about the league's future.
No major college athletic program had a better 2021 than Baylor, which won a league title in football and its first-ever men's basketball national championship.
"When you put all of that together, at least since I've been here, it's been an all-time high," said Rhoades, Baylor's AD since July 2016. "People feel really good about Baylor athletics and where we're headed. So how do we take that momentum and make sure we parlay that into continued success?"
Baylor is set to break ground this summer on two major projects, a football operations center and a basketball arena. Although the facilities had been approved before the success of 2021, Rhoades said both projects will become more "financially secure," allowing Baylor to examine other areas, such as staff.
Similar facilities projects are taking place at legacy Big 12 schools such as Texas Tech and Kansas State.
"The only thing worse than being in the arms race is not being in the arms race," Bowlsby said. "You have to continue investing in your programs."
Despite the losses of Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 added new members with established on-field track records and growing brands. Texas floundered during the season, and Oklahoma saw its streak of Big 12 titles end and coach Lincoln Riley depart for USC.
Oklahoma State and Baylor, meanwhile, quietly crept into the national spotlight.
"We were 5-2 in the postseason and that's a good representation of our league," Bowlsby said. "The new members played well and our legacy members played well. We weren't playing bad competition in the postseason. You mentioned the two big brands, you don't replace Oklahoma and Texas, but the fact that we had two other teams playing in our championship game is indicative of the fact that league strength is pretty good overall."
The Big 12 also displayed a more balanced style of play with improved defenses, a trend that started before 2021 with teams such as Iowa State and TCU, but accelerated last fall.
Although high-scoring, quarterback-centric Big 12 games of the recent past delivered an element of fun, there was some reputational damage, especially with the recruitment and development of defensive players. In 2021, the Big 12 had two top-10 defenses (Oklahoma State, Iowa State) and four that ranked in the top 25 in points allowed. Of the 15 players from the Big 12 at last week's Senior Bowl, nine are defenders.
"From the viewpoint of the seriousness of how we play football, it's more traditional, it's more toughness, physicality, run the ball and play defense, and maybe less gimmicky," Rhoades said. "It just feels like this is a real football conference. This is not a video-game conference."
The Big 12 will face challenges ahead, especially the integration of the new members -- BYU will join in 2023, the other three no later than 2024 -- and handling Oklahoma's and Texas' exits from the league. With the league's media rights expiring in 2025, the key will be how much the new league makeup impacts annual revenue payouts, which initially were projected to drop without Texas and Oklahoma as part of the package.
Gundy, by far the Big 12's longest-tenured coach, looks at what the television markets Houston, UCF and Cincinnati will add, and BYU's large following, and sees a league that still has the potential to thrive.
"Are the four coming in more powerful from a television revenue standpoint than the two going out? It's going to be interesting," Gundy said. "Now you have strength of numbers where you have 12 [members], which is what we've needed forever. We could potentially be better off. I legitimately think that could be true."
Especially if the Big 12 keeps the pedal down.
"Each one of us has to continue to invest in our student-athletes and our sport programs," Rhoades said. "I'm confident we will. There's no doubt in my mind that the Big 12 will continue to have a formidable place in college athletics."