Ten years ago, Alabama, led by head coach Nick Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, avenged a 9-6 regular-season defeat to LSU with a 21-0 pasting of the Tigers in the BCS National Championship Game. LSU's offense famously didn't cross the 50-yard line until late in the game, and Bama immediately shoved it back to its side of the field.
On Monday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN App), Saban and Smart will coach in another rematch, this time from opposite sidelines. Alabama stomped unbeaten Georgia 41-24 in the SEC championship game in early December, allowing the one-loss Crimson Tide to seal a spot alongside the Dawgs in the College Football Playoff. And after the teams won their semifinal games by a combined 61-17, here we are.
It feels like the 2021 season couldn't have ended in any way besides another Bama-Georgia affair. Let's preview it!
Jump to:
Turning the Tide | Saban's dominance
Where Georgia has gone wrong | Why this could be different
Bama's pass rush | Bama's top 5 | Georgia's top 5
Projections
Another battle with the final boss
At some point in the future, near or distant, Georgia will beat Alabama in a game of football. The narrative arc that opened in 2008 and has included both a handful of blowouts and a trio of thrilling and impactful finishes -- all of which have ended in Bama's favor -- will close and a new arc will begin. It's the way sport works. You may beat a key rival most of the time, but you don't do it all the time. Eventually Kentucky beats Florida or Michigan beats Ohio State.
From a narrative perspective, it feels like this is the moment for Kirby Smart and Georgia. In the four decades and change since the Dawgs' last title, they will have 17 finishes in the AP top 10 when this season ends. Over the past five years, they are 0-5 against national title game participants and 57-5 against everyone else. And they've come so damn close against Alabama so many times.
In 2012, Mark Richt's Dawgs came up five yards short of a victory over Bama in the SEC championship game; a win would have put them in the BCS championship game against Notre Dame, and they would have been favored. In 2017, Smart's second UGA team led Bama for 40 minutes in the national title game and took the lead in overtime before Tua Tagovailoa's famous second-and-26 heave to DeVonta Smith. In the 2018 SEC title game, Georgia twice led Alabama by 14 points before succumbing to two scores (and an infamous failed fake punt) in the final 5:09 and losing 35-28; a win would have again put them in the CFP.
Granted, the last couple of meetings between the teams, matching 41-24 wins for the Tide, haven't seemed quite as close, but even in those games Georgia landed plenty of blows. As Sports Illustrated's Ross Dellenger pointed out last week, the Dawgs have been ahead or tied for 171 of 240 minutes in the teams' past four meetings. The longer the Dawgs stay close to Bama on the scoreboard, the closer and more creative the loss.
That has to end at some point. Right?
One problem: From a narrative perspective, it felt like the SEC championship was the moment too. Georgia had been the superior team all season, winning its first 12 games by an average of 41-7 while Alabama lost to Texas A&M and spent most of November narrowly avoiding a second loss. The Tide couldn't protect star quarterback Bryce Young, and the offense looked wobbly and unfocused. The title to one of the sections in my championship weekend preview was, "Here's where the script writers let Georgia finally vanquish Alabama ... right?"
Nope. Bama played its best game of the year, and while Georgia had a mulligan to spend, the loss ended up assuring that the Tide might once again stand in the way of a UGA title.
Nick Saban is the reason we think there's no parity in college football
One common recent complaint about college football: It's no fun because the same teams always win. From a 20,000-foot view, this is an odd complaint because it's the way college football has always been. Miami won four national titles in eight years in the 1980s and early 1990s. Nebraska won three of four in the 1990s. Florida State finished in the AP top five for 14 straight years from 1987 to 2000. USC won 82 games from 2002 to 2008, winning two national titles (2003, 2004) and coming really close to two more (2005, 2008).
Over the past 60 years, 13 schools have won 88% of the AP's national titles. Six -- Alabama, Miami, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and USC -- have accounted for 34 of them, more than half. This sport is and has always been run by an oligarchy.
Alabama's 5 best players
OLB Will Anderson Jr.: By far the most disruptive defensive player in the country this year, Anderson has recorded 33.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 more than anyone else in FBS. He's the best pass-rusher and maybe the best run-defending linebacker in the country to boot.
QB Bryce Young: Only No. 2 because of how dominant Anderson has been. Young played his best game of the year against Georgia and has thrown for 4,503 yards and 46 touchdowns in his first year as a starter.
WR Jameson Williams: The Ohio State transfer torched Georgia for two long touchdowns in the SEC championship game and has caught 75 balls for 1,507 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.
DE Phidarian Mathis: Sometimes you have to wait a little while for your moment to shine. The 312-pound senior has recorded 12 tackles for loss and nine sacks, 3.5 in the past three games alone.
LT Evan Neal: Alabama struggled to protect Young in November, but that wasn't Neal's fault -- in 560 pass-blocking downs, he has yet to allow a sack. He's only blown five run blocks all year as well.
That said, the names do change. Teams don't rule for a particularly long period of time before falling back to the pack a bit.
Alabama's current run of dominance is unmatched in college football's modern history. The Crimson Tide won the 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017 and 2020 national titles and played for the championship in 2016 and 2018 as well. Take Miami's 1980s run or USC's 2000s run and basically double it.
There have obviously been other powers in the sport over the past decade. Since the start of the CFP in 2014, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma have taken up an average of two playoff spots per season. But Alabama has participated in seven of eight by itself and, with a win Monday night, would own half of the titles in the CFP era.
To get a sense for how much Alabama has owned the sport in the Saban era, close your eyes and imagine a world in which Saban stuck with the Miami Dolphins in early January 2007 and never returned to the college ranks.
Alabama would have still remained relevant, of course -- the Tide did manage three top-five finishes and seven top-10s in the 25 years between Bear Bryant's retirement and Saban's arrival -- but simply looking at how the rankings might have played out in a given, Sabanless year, it's possible that Cincinnati or TCU would have played for the 2009 national title and Oklahoma State would have played for it in 2011. In the CFP era, Mississippi State might have made the semis in 2014, Stanford in 2015, Penn State in 2016 and Texas A&M in 2020. The powerhouses would have remained powerful because that's the way the sport works, but the extra randomness would have added up. Instead, we have witnessed the greatest coaching performance of all time. It's doubtful that either Saban or Alabama fans feel too bad about the lack of parity.
Where things have gone wrong for Georgia against Alabama
For a casual fan, finding out that the sportsbooks have listed Georgia as a favorite has to be a little confusing. Hasn't Alabama pummeled the Dawgs in each of the past two years? And didn't we just talk about Bama being the most dominant program ever? Indeed! But on paper, things are awfully close and even lean Georgia's way.
Key rankings:
SP+: Georgia first, Alabama third
FPI: Georgia first, Alabama second
Offensive SP+: Alabama second, Georgia third
Offensive FPI: Alabama second, Georgia fourth
Defensive SP+: Georgia first, Alabama eighth
Defensive FPI: Georgia first, Alabama seventh
Yards per play: Georgia fourth, Alabama 10th
Yards per play allowed: Georgia first, Alabama sixth
Success rate: Georgia fifth, Alabama 21st
Success rate allowed: Georgia first, Alabama 13th
For the most part, the Dawgs have a slight advantage in terms of both opponent-adjusted and unadjusted stats. Take history out of the equation, and it's easy to see why Georgia might be favored.
Plus, it's not like recent games haven't been close for long periods of time.
2017: Georgia led 13-0 at halftime and 20-7 with just under 22 minutes to go, but Alabama went on a 13-0 run to send the game to overtime.
2018: Georgia led 21-7 late in the first half and 28-14 late in the third quarter, but Alabama scored the game's final 21 points and took its first lead with a minute left.
2020: Georgia led 24-17 late in the first half and 24-20 with 19 minutes left, but Alabama scored the game's last 24 points.
2021: Georgia led 10-0 early in the second quarter, and the score was tied at 17 in the final minute of the first half. But Alabama scored 24 of the game's final 31 points.
It's easy to see a theme there. Georgia comes out with a great plan and lands some early blows, but Alabama's offense eventually makes some headway and, forced to keep up, Georgia's offense disappears. Total first-half point totals in these games: Georgia 75, Alabama 58. Total second-half score: Alabama 79, Georgia 21.
December's matchup played out in a pretty familiar fashion. Georgia gained 159 yards to Alabama's 46 in the first quarter, with nine first downs to Bama's three. The Dawgs scored to go up 10 on the first play of the second quarter, then Alabama rebounded.
Jameson Williams split the UGA secondary for a 67-yard catch-and-run to make the score 10-7, Georgia went three-and-out after a miscommunication between Stetson Bennett and Adonai Mitchell, then Young connected with John Metchie III for passes of 40, 23 and 13 yards to put Bama ahead 14-10.
After another three-and-out (sealed by more third-down miscommunication) and a Bama field goal, Georgia's offense responded -- Bennett and Ladd McConkey connected for a 32-yard score to make it 17-17. But Young completed another big pass to Metchie, then rushed for an 11-yard score with 26 seconds left in the first half. Alabama scored to start the second half (55 yards from Young to Williams) and that was basically the ballgame.
Over basically a 16-minute span, Alabama outgained Georgia 394-56 and outscored them 31-7. No other Dawgs opponent has hit those marks in 60 minutes. Meanwhile, after starting the game 9-for-11 for 131 yards and a touchdown, Bennett finished it 20-for-37 for 209 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions and two sacks. Adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A*) while building the 10-0 lead: 13.3. ANY/A the rest of the way: 3.6.
* ANY/A is a yards-per-attempt figure that includes sacks and incorporates a 20-yard bonus for each touchdown and a 45-yard penalty for each interception. It tends to give us what we think we're getting from passer rating.
These struggles were emblematic of Bennett's entire on-and-off tenure as Georgia's starting quarterback. Over the past two seasons, he ranks sixth overall in raw QBR when Georgia is ahead, but 71st when the Dawgs are tied or behind ... and 139th out of 152 when tied or behind after halftime. Once Georgia builds an advantage, there's almost no one on earth you'd rather have either maintaining or building that lead -- he makes smart choices and puts the game away with play-action deep balls. But in more pressurized situations, he forces the issue, abandoning easier passes for riskier downfield shots and making far more mistakes.
Bennett overall in 2020-21: 61% completion rate, 15.0 yards per completion, 26% of passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage, 3% interception rate
Bennett when tied or behind after halftime: 49% completion rate, 11.2 yards per completion, 21% of passes thrown at or behind the line, 9% interception rate
Now, while he has thrown 416 passes overall in 2020-21, only 57 were when tied or behind in the second half. There's a major small-sample size alert here. But Bennett's struggles in track meets against Alabama and Florida last year got him benched for a healthy JT Daniels down the stretch and are why Daniels began this season as the starter. Bennett was so good at maintaining big leads after Daniels again suffered an injury that he kept his job when Daniels got healthy. It's too late to make a change now, but one wonders how tight the leash will be if Bennett begins misfiring again and Alabama takes another lead.
Where things could go right this time
There might be two keys to Georgia's chances on Monday night: blitzing and Brock Bowers.
The Georgia blitz worked against Alabama (when the Dawgs used it).
Alabama's perfect 16 minutes in the SEC championship were jarring, but the most surprising number that came might have been zero -- the number of times Georgia sacked Young. Auburn and LSU had combined to sack Young 11 times, key elements to the two teams' near-upsets of the Tide. Georgia has one of the most successful pass rushes in the country in 2021, but couldn't bring Young down even once.
Georgia's 5 best players
LB Nakobe Dean: The last time the Dawgs were in the national title game, they had Roquan Smith as a dominant, know-everything, get-everywhere linebacker. Now they've got Dean. He's unreal.
NT Jordan Davis: The 340-pounder is way too fast for his 6-foot-6 size and finished ninth in the Heisman voting. He commands multiple blockers at all times in the middle of the defensive line.
TE Brock Bowers: Georgia's leading receiver by far (52 catches, 846 yards, 12 touchdowns), the true freshman lines up everywhere, does a little bit of everything and creates matchup nightmares with defenders big and small.
LT Jamaree Salyer: Nearly Neal's equal at left tackle, the senior from Atlanta and former top-25 recruit has allowed only three sacks in his entire career, one in 2021.
QB Stetson Bennett: The former walk-on was never supposed to start but more than made the most of a second chance in 2021, throwing for 2,638 yards and 27 touchdowns and ranking second, ahead of Bryce Young, in Total QBR. Now he has to come through in the big situations.
It's easy to assume, then, that the Dawgs played things too safe, but the stats suggest this isn't actually how things played out. Georgia blitzed Young quite a bit and found success (if not sacks) when doing so; almost every time the Dawgs didn't blitz, they got torched.
Georgia when blitzing in 2021: 41% pressure rate, 10% sack rate, 3.3 yards allowed per dropback
Georgia blitzing vs. Alabama: 50% pressure rate, 0% sack rate, 4.6 yards allowed per dropback
Georgia actually blitzed more frequently than usual against Alabama -- 0.43 blitzes per dropback compared to 0.24 for the entire season -- and while the Dawgs couldn't bring Young down, they still mostly held him and the passing game in check when they attempted to bring pressure.
It's the other numbers that stand out:
Georgia when not blitzing in 2021: 31% pressure rate, 8% sack rate, 4.8 yards allowed per dropback
Georgia not blitzing vs. Alabama: 26% pressure rate, 0% sack rate, 13.7 yards allowed per dropback
Young was 8-for-20 for 91 yards when blitzed against Georgia and 18-for-24 for 330 and three touchdowns (with three scrambles for 40 yards) when unblitzed. For one reason or another -- Alabama's tempo? Throwing a changeup? -- Georgia took its foot off the gas from a blitzing perspective in the second quarter. The Dawgs blitzed on just six of 18 dropbacks (33%) while doing so on 14 of 26 (54%) the rest of the game.
Even on passing downs -- second-and-8 or more, third- or fourth-and-5 or more -- they blitzed just 20% of the time in the second quarter (one of five) and 50% the rest of the way (six of 12).
While the answer isn't "SEND THE HOUSE ON EVERY PLAY!!!" Georgia now has first-hand experience in what can happen when Young has a clean pocket and time to survey the field. That Metchie is out with an ACL tear helps the Dawgs' cause, but if Young has time, he will do major damage regardless. Alabama has protected Young better overall since making a couple of changes to its starting offensive line during the Auburn game, but the odds are good that Georgia will figure out how to get to him in Indianapolis a bit more than they did in Atlanta.
Now, when you get outscored 41-14 after a bright early start, both the 41 and 14 are problems. Perhaps Georgia's pass rush will find more success and help to tamp down the potency of Alabama's attack, but the Dawgs will still need more consistency on offense as well.
Brock Bowers: cheat code
It's strange talking about this game and barely touching on the run games. Alabama's Brian Robinson Jr., after all, rushed 26 times for 204 yards against Cincinnati in the semifinals, and Georgia has proven time and again that if you don't stop the Bulldogs' run game, they'll just keep leaning on Zamir White, James Cook and Co. (sans the occasional play-action bomb).
But the odds of either team running the ball well aren't that great. Georgia ranks third in the nation in rushing success rate allowed, and Alabama ranks eighth; Georgia backs averaged 4.4 yards per carry in the SEC championship, and Alabama backs averaged 3.5. In all, 28 of the game's 47 designed rushes gained three or fewer yards, and only five gained more than 10.
This meeting, like the last one, will almost certainly hinge on passing, both because the run won't be working and because both defenses are weaker at the back than the front.
In Young, Alabama has perhaps the most high-upside quarterback in college football. Bennett cannot compete with that, especially if he's forcing the issue like he has in the past. But without Metchie, Young has only one proven weapon. Youngsters such as Ja'Corey Brooks have come through of late, but Bennett has his full battery of targets. That goes for this year's leading wideouts (Jermaine Burton, McConkey and Mitchell), last year's leading wideout (George Pickens, who missed most of this season with an ACL injury), some stellar pass-catchers out of the backfield (Cook and Kenny McIntosh) and, of course, all-world freshman tight end Bowers.
It's hard not to see Bowers as the key. The 6-foot-4, 230-pounder from Napa, California, has nearly twice as many receptions, yards and touchdowns as any other Bulldog, and he was a bright spot in Georgia's loss to Alabama, catching 10 balls for 139 yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown. But 13 of his 15 targets came in the second half, when Georgia was down at least 14 points. Most of his damage was done in the game's last 20 minutes.
One assumes Georgia won't wait that long this time around. The Dawgs certainly didn't against Michigan. Bowers caught only five passes against the Wolverines, but four of them, including a 35-yarder on the third play of the game, came in the first quarter.
Bowers has been a revelation. Georgia was supposedly going to be loaded at tight end this year thanks to Darnell Washington and LSU transfer Arik Gilbert. But Gilbert hasn't played, and Washington began the season with an injury. That opened the door for Bowers, and he stormed through it. Opponents know he's the most important weapon in this makeshift receiving corps, but offensive coordinator Todd Monken counters that by lining him up pretty much everywhere and targeting him in every way imaginable.
Along the left sideline, he is outright magic. Bennett has targeted him 16 times left of the hashmarks -- often against cornerbacks -- and he has caught 15 passes for 292 yards and four touchdowns.
Bowers was deployed primarily over the middle in the first game against Alabama, catching six balls for 83 yards between the hashes. But he beat Bama corner Kool-Aid McKinstry for an 18-yard gain along the left sideline in the first quarter. We could see a bit more of that this time around.
Alabama's pass rush saved the season
We've almost grown used to the paradox that is a Saban team winning with elite offense and merely very good defense.
From 2008 to 2017, the Crimson Tide ranked first in defensive SP+ six times and averaged a defensive SP+ rating of just 9.5 adjusted points per game. In that span, they also averaged an offensive SP+ ranking of 12.5 and an average rating of 40.5 adjusted points per game.
In the past four seasons, the balance has shifted. The offense has improved by an average of 7.3 adjusted points per game from 2018 to 2021 and has ranked in the top two each year, while the defense has regressed by an average of 5.5 points. Both units have clearly been awesome, but offense has taken the priority, as evidenced by Saban's famous "Good defense doesn't beat good offense anymore" quote from last year.
With Cincinnati giving Alabama's passing game problems in the semifinals, however, the Tide found they could still rely on an old recipe. They fed the Bearcats a heavy dose of a big running back (Robinson), and they absolutely destroyed Cincinnati's offensive line on the way to six sacks of Desmond Ridder.
This pass rush saved Bama's season. When the offense was held to a combined 30 points in regulation against LSU and Auburn, and Young was getting constantly hurried and sacked, the Crimson Tide defense was doing the same thing to the opposing quarterbacks. They held the two opponents to 24 points in regulation and recorded 11 sacks of their own.
Bama's defense went from very good to elite when the pass rush fully took hold.
Alabama's defense, first six games: 5.0 yards per play allowed (35th in FBS), 40% success rate allowed (44th), 11% explosive play rate* allowed (45th), 25% three-and-out rate (43rd), 6.4 yards allowed per dropback (72nd), 6% sacks per dropback (61st)
Past eight games: 4.4 yards per play (fifth), 37% success rate (12th), 9% explosive play rate (eighth), 30% three-and-out rate (sixth), 5.1 yards per dropback (10th), 11% sacks per dropback (fifth).
* Explosive play = rush of 12-plus yards or pass of 16-plus yards
The Crimson Tide went from making two sacks per game to five, and they went from allowing 22 points per game to 17.1.
We know the main reason for this pass-rushing success: Anderson, who is the best defensive player -- and probably the best player, period -- in college football. Opponents haven't been able to properly account for him all year, but the Tide have also gotten increasing contributions from Mathis and freshman linebacker Dallas Turner (6.5 sacks, all in the past six). Cincinnati hadn't scored fewer than 21 points in a game since 2019 and managed just six in the semis. Even if Georgia can better frustrate Young, the Dawgs still have to beat a defensive front seven that has been every bit as good as Georgia's in the latter stages of 2021.
Projections
Caesars Sportsbook: Georgia 27.3, Alabama 24.8 (Georgia -2.5, over/under 52)
SP+: Georgia 32.0, Alabama 27.3
As Football Outsiders' Brian Fremeau noted last week, in all FBS in-season rematches since 2007, the same team won both games just 54% of the time, and the favored team won the rematch 80% of the time. Despite the SEC championship performance, and despite the past 13 years of Alabama-Georgia games, Kirby Smart's Dawgs are the favorites.
Things went wrong for Georgia in a hurry in Atlanta, and in a very familiar way. But if the pass rush gets to Young in a way that it didn't in the first meeting, and if Bennett stays settled in important second-half positions, this could be the time Smart finally gets one over on his old boss.
And if it isn't, we'll say "Now's the time" the next time around instead.