After one of the wildest weeks in the history of the college football coaching carousel, it's time to get back to the things that matter most: the games those coaches coach. While Georgia has all but locked up a College Football Playoff bid, three more bids, 10 FBS conference titles, a Celebration Bowl bid and spots in the FCS quarterfinals and Division II and III semifinals are all on the line. The action starts on Friday evening.
Here's everything you need to know about a loaded, and likely thrilling, Championship Weekend.
Here's where the script writers let Georgia finally vanquish Alabama ... right?
SEC championship: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Alabama (4 p.m., CBS)
Title defenses usually fail. Nick Saban's Alabama has won six of the past 12 national titles but repeated as champion only once, in 2011-12. In the past 40 years, USC (2003-04) and Nebraska (1994-95) are the only other teams to pull it off. The U never did, nor did Bobby Bowden's Florida State Seminoles.
Some title defenses fall flat quickly, but champions often make it pretty far down the road before succumbing. Florida State (2014), Alabama (2016 and 2018) and Clemson (2017 and 2019) all made it back to the CFP, for instance. But when the end comes, it can be pretty harsh. Think Oregon 59, FSU 20 (in 2014), or Clemson 42, Bama 13 (in 2018).
It wouldn't be particularly surprising if there were a harsh ending awaiting Alabama on Saturday.
The Crimson Tide have been awfully rickety down the stretch. A 41-38 loss at Texas A&M on Oct. 9 seemed to refocus Saban's charges -- they responded by beating good Mississippi State and Tennessee teams by a combined 101-33 -- but November was quite the challenge. The offensive line couldn't protect quarterback Bryce Young against suddenly blitz-happy, give-no-damns LSU in a frustrating 20-14 win. The offense rebounded against Arkansas, but the defense gave up five drives of 75-plus yards in a narrow 42-35 victory. The defense reasserted itself in the Iron Bowl, but Young was again under pressure, and the Tide needed a last-minute touchdown, their first of the day, to force overtime, where they eventually beat Auburn 24-22.
The champ is as wobbly as can be, and this feels like the moment Kirby Smart and Georgia finally get the better of Smart's former Tuscaloosa boss. Lord knows the scriptwriters have been setting it up, rather heavy-handedly at times, for years.
Georgia led Bama 13-0 at halftime of the 2018 national championship game before Tua Tagovailoa subbed in for Jalen Hurts, led the Tide back and won the title with a second-and-26 heave to DeVonta Smith in overtime. The next year, the Dawgs led by 14 in the second half of the SEC championship, but Bama charged back again, and Hurts, in for an injured Tagovailoa, scored the poetic game winner.
The past four seasons have seemingly led to this specific moment. Bama is teetering, and Georgia has been the best team in the country from wire to wire. The Dawgs not only rank first in points allowed per drive (0.5), but they're also up to third in points scored per drive (3.3). They give you nothing and take everything. This has to be where they deliver the knockout blow, right?
Georgia has been so good this season that, somehow, we still haven't really gotten an answer to the question we spent most of the offseason asking: Can the Bulldogs' offense score when it absolutely has to?
Georgia went 8-2 last season and finished in the AP top 10 for the fourth consecutive year, but against the two elite offenses on its schedule (Alabama and Florida), its top-ranked defense gave up 41 and 44 points, respectively, and the Dawgs could muster only 24 and 28 points in return. Stetson Bennett, game manager extraordinaire and surprise starter, managed a 146.9 passer rating in Georgia's wins, but went just 23-for-56 with four interceptions and a 96.5 rating against the Tide and Gators.
Bennett was replaced late in 2020 by former blue-chipper JT Daniels, but another Daniels injury early in 2021 resulted in Bennett taking the starting job once more. He has been brilliant -- 65% completion rate, 16.7 yards per completion and an 88.8 Total QBR that ranks second in the country -- but he's also had the easiest job in the country. Because of the Dawgs' total defensive domination, Bennett has helmed just one second-half drive when Georgia wasn't up by at least 14 points. (They led Kentucky by seven at halftime and immediately drove 75 yards for a touchdown to start the third quarter.) As excellent as he's been, Bennett has thrown more than 21 passes in a game just once. For comparison, Young has averaged 35 passes per game.
We long ago penciled in this game as the one that would tell us what we need to know about Bennett and the Georgia attack. Whether that remains the case will depend on whether Bama can actually give Young enough time to run the Tide offense. That's increasingly been an issue. Opponents have done a good job of covering up Young's quicker reads, forcing him to look downfield and, in the process, sacking him more frequently.
Forcing Young to look downfield is a double-edged sword, as he will complete some of these passes for big gains. But opponents have figured out how to create more negative plays, and the effects have been clear.
Georgia manages to create constant pressure despite blitzing only 22% of the time (80th in FBS), and it let opponents fire short passes, swarming and gang-tackling for minimal gains. Perhaps screens and quick passes will gain just enough to allow Bama to stay on schedule and keep Young out of trouble. But against a defense that ranks first in success rate, first in explosive play rate and forces three-and-outs an incredible 50% of the time (also first), Alabama will either have to play by far its best offensive game of the season or force Bennett into mistakes he hasn't made all season. The latter feels more likely than the former, but neither offers great odds of success.
Because of Georgia's level of dominance this year, the Dawgs will likely still make the CFP with a loss. Maybe the scriptwriters will attempt to put off Georgia's final breakthrough for a little while longer. But the Bulldogs have never had a better chance to finish the job. If not now, then when?
Michigan vs. a perfect trap game scenario
Big Ten championship: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 13 Iowa (8 p.m., Fox)
We know exactly what Iowa is going to try to do in virtually every game it plays; it's just a matter of whether it works. The Hawkeyes are going to run the ball constantly whether it goes anywhere or not. They're going to use big-legged punter Tory Taylor to generate the equivalent of an extra first down or two each drive. They're going to sit in a conservative-but-spicy zone defense, and they're going to wait for your quarterback to make a mistake, knowing he eventually will. That's pretty much the entire game plan.
In the past two years, the Hawkeyes are 16-1 when allowing fewer than 24 points and 0-3 when allowing more. They are 4-4 when their turnover margin is zero or worse, and they are 12-0 when it's positive. They are 14-1 when their passers produce a rating over 100 -- an impossibly low bar -- and 2-3 when they don't. They define the rules of the game, and it's up to you to follow the rules and win anyway. Not many do.
They are a giant pain in the butt, in other words. One could say they are exactly the type of team you don't want to play after a particularly cathartic win.
Jim Harbaugh and Michigan finally got the Ohio State monkey off of their collective back. The Wolverines manhandled the Buckeyes 42-27 in snowy Ann Arbor, finally clinching their first division title and getting to within one game of their first CFP appearance.
In theory, Michigan is better equipped than most to handle the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines have surrendered only nine turnovers this year -- sixth fewest in FBS -- and quarterback Cade McNamara has thrown only three interceptions in 284 passes. He has worked his way up to 16th in Total QBR, 11th over his past five games. Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis has slowly increased the burden on his young QB as the season has progressed, in terms of both pass variety and volume, and McNamara has responded well.
He's performed far better against man defense (24th in raw QBR) than zone (44th), however, and if anyone in the country can coax mistakes out of McNamara, it's Iowa. The Hawkeyes are excellent against the run and should force plenty of third-and-mediums and third-and-longs from which they could make life tricky for McNamara and Michigan.
If the Hawkeyes can't win the turnover battle, and potentially create some easy points from that, it's hard to imagine them pulling an upset here. Their offense is truly dismal once again -- 102nd in points per drive, 120th in success rate, 113th in three-and-out rate, 118th in explosive play rate. But they're 10-2 despite that offense, and if the Wolverines have lost focus at all post-Ohio State, they're in for 60 very frustrating minutes.
What can Baylor do differently this time against Oklahoma State?
Big 12 championship: No. 5 Oklahoma State vs. No. 9 Baylor (noon, ABC)
Ten years, two weeks and one day ago, Quinn Sharp's kick sailed wide right. I guess. I've never been completely convinced of that, but that's what the officials ruled. It was as close as it could possibly be.
After watching a 24-7 lead over Iowa State disappear on a Friday night in Ames in 2011, Oklahoma State, ranked second and unbeaten, had a chance to take the lead back with a minute left in regulation, but Sharp's 37-yard field goal attempt failed, and the immortal Jeff Woody scored in the second overtime to vanquish the Pokes. They would fall just short of the top two in the final BCS rankings. That had a positive effect on college football as a whole -- the resulting Alabama-LSU rematch in the national title game was so poorly received that decision-makers finally agreed to adopt a four-team playoff after decades of hemming and hawing -- but the best OSU team ever never got a shot at a championship.
A decade later comes a shot at redemption. Mike Gundy's Cowboys probably aren't as good, top to bottom, as that 2011 team, but they're definitely different: The 2011 Cowboys averaged 49 points per game, while the 2021 Pokes have made waves by allowing only 16 points per game.
Different or not, with a Saturday win in Jerry World -- something trends seem to favor -- the Pokes will be well-positioned to make the final four. If Georgia beats Alabama as projected or either Iowa or Houston pulls an upset, OSU probably gets in.
Since their 24-14 home win over Baylor in October -- a game in which OSU allowed basically two big gains and otherwise completely shut the Bears down -- the Oklahoma State offense has found its footing a bit. After averaging just 5.2 yards per play and 25.7 points per game over their first seven contests, the Cowboys have since averaged 6.0 and 40.4, respectively.
Special teams have helped in that regard -- they needed a kick-return score and a muffed Sooners punt inside the Oklahoma 5 to hit 37 points last week -- but the offense has grown more stable. With running back Jaylen Warren banged up after putting lots of miles on his legs early in the year, Dominic Richardson has emerged as a solid backup to allow Warren to decrease his load. And while quarterback Spencer Sanders is still good for a couple of bone-headed decisions per game, his completion rate has gone up over these five games, and his interception rate has gone down.
Baylor, meanwhile, has been leaning on backup quarterback Blake Shapen the past two weeks due to a hamstring injury to Gerry Bohanon. Shapen has been decent (65% completion rate, 10.9 yards per completion), but BU's productivity still suffered: After averaging 6.5 yards per play and 32 points in their first nine games against FBS competition, the Bears averaged only 4.9 and 23.5, respectively, against Kansas State and Texas Tech. Now they have to face OSU's incredible defense.
The Bears will still obviously have a chance. They rank 18th in defensive SP+ and 14th in rushing success rate allowed, an important stat against OSU. They could force the Pokes behind schedule, take advantage of Sanders' mistakes, and take control of the game with only marginal output from their offense. But OSU is both favored and well-positioned to right the wrongs of a decade ago.
Houston will take the fight to Cincinnati
AAC championship: No. 21 Houston at No. 4 Cincinnati (4 p.m., ABC)
Houston has finished in the AP top 10 within the past decade, has a New Year's Six bowl win to its name and boasts enough potential at all times to have drawn a Big 12 invitation despite falling into a 2019-20 funk. It's odd that the Cougars, of all teams, have managed to sneak up on us this year, but that's exactly what they've done.
Dana Holgorsen's Coogs were 87th in SP+ following a 17-point loss to Texas Tech in Week 1, but they found their footing in October and hit the accelerator in November. They're now up to 29th. The Houston offense has grown a little less all-or-nothing over time (though it's still inconsistent), and Doug Belk's defense is one of the most aggressive in the country: The Cougars rank second in havoc rate* and fifth in pressure rate, and like Oklahoma State, they have figured out how to stress your quarterback without blitzing or risking big plays. They cover like crazy, and eventually any number of pass rushers -- seven have between 3.5 and six sacks -- tracks the QB down.
In theory, the Coogs don't have enough offense to threaten Cincinnati for 60 minutes. The Bearcats force a ton of three-and-outs and pressure quarterbacks even more than Houston. But if Houston can put some early points on the board, be it through a big play by receivers Nathaniel Dell or Jeremy Singleton, a big run by Alton McCaskill or, most likely, a turnover, this game could get quite interesting. You have to pressure Cincy QB Desmond Ridder to have any chance, and Houston could do that particularly well if it has a reason to pin its ears back enough.
Just as Oklahoma State would have reached the CFP had it existed in 2011, Cincinnati would have done the same in 2009. While the CFP committee still has time to screw the Bearcats over even if they win, that appears less likely than it did a few weeks ago. Luke Fickell has the Cats on the doorstep, and at the moment, it appears he's going to remain in Cincinnati for a while longer despite the craziness of the coaching carousel. Everything's coming up Cincy, but Houston could make this final step awfully perilous.
* Havoc rate: total tackles for loss, passes defensed and forced fumbles divided by total plays.
Week 14 playlist
Needless to say, there's a lot going on this weekend. Here are a few more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend.
Friday evening
Conference USA championship: Western Kentucky at UTSA (7 p.m., CBSSN). What better way to start the weekend than with a rematch of a 52-46 classic? UTSA's offense has trailed off of late, and the sportsbooks give the visiting Hilltoppers the edge this time.
Pac-12 championship: No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 17 Utah (8 p.m., ABC). Everything went wrong for Oregon in a 38-7 loss at Salt Lake City two weeks ago. This one could be very different, depending on who stays on schedule and goes up early this time around.
FCS second round: Eastern Washington at Montana (9 p.m., ESPN+). EWU and quarterback Eric Barriere used a fourth-quarter flurry to beat Montana 34-28 in the regular season. Now the Eagles have to do it again in Missoula.
Early Saturday
MAC championship: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois (noon, ESPN). These teams have combined for 11 one-score wins this year, and the first time they played, Kent won a 52-47 track meet. No one would complain if the encore was just as wild.
D-III quarterfinals: Linfield at Mary Hardin-Baylor (1 p.m., streaming at umhb.edu/watchsports). The most intriguing D-III game of the week pits an incredible Linfield offense (50 points and 487 yards per game) against an unforgiving UMHB defense.
FCS second round: Southeastern Louisiana at James Madison (2 p.m., ESPN+). Cole Kelley and the ultra-prolific SELA attack against one of the best defenses in FCS? Yeah, sign me up.
D-II quarterfinals: NW Missouri State at Ferris State (1 p.m., streaming at ferrisstatebulldogs.com/links/yfsedf). Ferris State is unbeaten and has won its past five games by an average of 28 points, but Northwest is top-five caliber and not far removed from a run of three national titles in four years.
Saturday afternoon
Mountain West championship: Utah State at No. 19 San Diego State (3 p.m., Fox). Body blows vs. haymakers. SDSU pummels you with defense and punting and waits for you to collapse, while USU either wins big or loses big based on how many explosive plays it can land.
Sun Belt championship: Appalachian State at No. 24 Louisiana (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Soon-to-be Florida coach Billy Napier's final game at Louisiana will be his third stab at beating App State for an SBC title. The Cajuns certainly manhandled the Mountaineers in their first 2021 meeting.
SWAC championship: Prairie View A&M at Jackson State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Deion Sanders and his army of transfers are five points from an unbeaten record, and it would be a surprise if they didn't handle this one semi-easily and advance to the Celebration Bowl.
Saturday evening
ACC championship: No. 15 Pittsburgh vs. No. 16 Wake Forest (8 p.m., ABC). Two prolific offenses face off, and frankly it would be disappointing if this one didn't serve as a natural antidote to the Big Ten's Saturday night rock fight.
Late Saturday
USC at Cal (11 p.m., FS1). Because this game had to be postponed a few weeks ago, we are given one final Pac-12 After Dark opportunity ... but these teams are both 4-7 and haven't offered much of anything for a while.
But hey, it's college football! You'll be missing this sport soon!