After 800-something games, a ton of early upsets and plot twists, and an increasingly fraught and unpredictable bowl season, the main event of the 2021 college football campaign is on deck. The College Football Playoff semifinals -- No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (3:30 p.m. ET) and No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Georgia in the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET) -- kick off on Friday on ESPN and the ESPN app.
While Alabama is a playoff mainstay, the other three teams have combined for just one previous CFP appearance. From Cincinnati's rise to Michigan's redemption to Kirby Smart and Georgia's ongoing quest to finally surpass former mentor Nick Saban and Alabama, the storylines have been legion. Now we get to find out who will actually reach the national title game. Here's what you need to know about both games.
Alabama vs. Cincinnati
How has Bama's offense changed in 2021 (and which one will show up at Jerry World)?
Bill O'Brien took on a thankless job in replacing Steve Sarkisian as Alabama's offensive coordinator this season; there was nowhere to go but down after Bama fielded one of the greatest offenses of all time last season. O'Brien inherited a wonderfully modernized offense, complete with all the bells and whistles and motions and RPOs that you could ask for, but the lineup would be without 2020's No. 1 (wide receiver DeVonta Smith), No. 3 (quarterback Mac Jones) and No. 5 (running back Najee Harris) Heisman Trophy finishers, not to mention the Outland Trophy and Rimington Trophy winners up front in Alex Leatherwood and Landon Dickerson, respectively. Alabama is a talent factory and always has stars to replace, but the Crimson Tide don't always have to replace that much.
Alabama has used motion and RPOs a similar amount this fall, according to Sports Info Solutions, but without nearly as effective an offensive line (and, therefore, a run game), the Tide have been far more one-dimensional.
• While designed rushes accounted for 49% of Alabama's snaps last season (and gained 5.5 yards per carry), the Tide have gained 4.7 yards per carry and accounted for just 31% of snaps in 2021.
• Without the threat of the run game, passing has been more difficult. RPO passes have gained just 7.5 yards per attempt instead of last season's 10.4. Plays with motion at the snap have gained 7.3 yards as compared to last year's 8.8.
• Opponents have loaded the box with at least eight defenders just 8% of the time in 2021 (and allowed 2.4 yards per play when doing so), after doing it 18% of the time (at 4.2 yards per play) in 2020.
To account for this, O'Brien has had Bryce Young throwing a lot more quick hook and out routes -- 14% of snaps as compared to 9% last season -- but all in all, the offense has been far less dominant this season. Granted, this is Alabama, so "less dominant" means "averaging 42.5 points per game and 6.7 yards per play, ranking merely second in offensive SP+ and having only one Heisman finalist (Young, who won the award)." But hey, regression is regression.
With no Smith and less time to find open receivers, Young has been unable to find the same downfield success as Jones did in 2020.
On passes thrown at least 11 yards downfield, Young's completion rate is 61% as compared to Jones' 72%, and on passes thrown at least 21 yards downfield, Young is at a rather poor 35% -- 12-for-30 (40%) to Jameson Williams and 7-for-25 (28%) to everyone else. Jones completed an otherworldly 61% of those passes.
However, just as Jones' new team, the New England Patriots, has thrived through the years by not really shifting into fifth gear until playoff time, Bama basically did the same in 2021. After struggling through a November run that included near losses to LSU, Arkansas and Auburn, the Tide played by far their best game of the season in the SEC championship game against Georgia. Against the best defense he had faced all season, Young went 26-for-44 for 421 yards and three touchdowns, with no interceptions and, despite 20 Georgia blitzes, no sacks. Only two teams had thrown for more than 215 yards on the Dawgs this season, and Young threw for 248 in the second quarter.
The Alabama run game still wasn't fantastic against the Dawgs -- Brian Robinson Jr. and Trey Sanders averaged 3.5 yards per carry -- but it didn't have to be. The line took a leap forward in pass protection when Chris Owens (right tackle) and Seth McLaughlin (center) moved into the lineup at halftime of the Auburn game; they protected Young impeccably well, and when they didn't, Young escaped pressure by both making throws on the run and rushing three times for 40 yards and a touchdown. Even after starting wideout John Metchie III went down with a knee injury, the Tide kept moving the ball.
So is this the passing game we'll see moving forward? Did Bama just shift into overdrive, where it will remain for the next two games? Were the pass protection problems that almost cost the Tide against LSU and Auburn, in particular, erased by simple lineup changes?
Or was the showing against Georgia simply an awesome (and potentially unreplicable) performance against a familiar and dangerous foe? The Bama of the first three months of 2021 should be only about a one-score favorite over Cincinnati. The Bama we saw against Georgia is just about untouchable.
How Cincinnati can beat Alabama
Maybe the new Bama is indeed untouchable, but let's put it this way: Cincinnati would be favored against LSU, Auburn and Arkansas. All three of those teams nearly beat Bama, and those games weren't exactly months ago.
It's probably worth our time, then, to lay out how a Bearcats upset of Bama at AT&T Stadium could occur. Where might Cincinnati boast the biggest matchup advantages? Where has Bama been the most vulnerable, on average? The Bearcats, the first Group of 5 team to reach the CFP, had to move mountains to get here. But what's their most likely path to the national title game?
1. Split the difference in the big-play department. In wide receiver Williams, Alabama has maybe the best big-play weapon in college football. He has gained more than 20 yards on 21 receptions -- only Utah State's Deven Thompkins has done so more -- and Williams is a matchup advantage even against a world-class cornerback.
Cincinnati has two world-class CBs, however -- future first-round draft pick Sauce Gardner and 2021 Jim Thorpe Award winner Coby Bryant -- and without Metchie, Bama doesn't have another proven deep threat beyond Williams. All other (healthy) Alabama wideouts have combined for 12 catches of 20-plus yards, while tight ends Jahleel Billingsley and Cameron Latu have combined for 10.
That opens a door for the Bearcats. Even when it's operating efficiently, the Alabama run game doesn't produce many big plays, and the Cincinnati skill corps packs a punch. The Bearcats have produced 23 rushes of 20-plus yards to Alabama's 10 -- Bama transfer Jerome Ford alone has nearly as many (eight) as his former team -- and while the Cincinnati receiving corps doesn't have a Williams, Alec Pierce has 14 catches of 20-plus yards, and four others (including Ford) have at least five. Also, Alabama cornerback Josh Jobe is out with injury. If the Bearcats can match Bama chunk play for chunk play, an upset becomes feasible.
2. Bearcats avoid three-and-outs. The Cincinnati offense is pretty rhythm-dependent. The Bearcats rank 13th in overall success rate (24th rushing, 11th passing), which is excellent, but they still go three-and-out 29% of the time, 72nd in FBS. They sometimes stall out before they get rolling, and that obviously can't happen against Alabama. The Tide go three-and-out just 18% of the time (third best), while opponents are at 42% (seventh). The Bama defense has been overshadowed by its offense in recent years, but the D still brings plenty of dominance to the table.
The Tide force opponents into loads of negative plays. They are fifth in sack rate and 10th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line). Outside linebacker Will Anderson Jr., with his 15.5 sacks, 69 pressures and 23 run stuffs, has been the best player in college football this season, ends Phidarian Mathis and Byron Young are among the more active linemen Bama has had of late and cornerback Jalyn Armour-Davis, assuming he's healthy enough to play, is a sure-tackling ball hawk.
If opponents can avoid the onslaught, they can make plays against the Tide, who rank 54th in passing success rate allowed and 17th (good, not elite) in points allowed per drive. But even if Cincinnati is suffering scoreless drives, if the Bearcats can at least move the chains a time or two and give their defense better field position, that will pay off handsomely.
3. Bama kicks field goals (or, better yet, throws picks). The Cincinnati offense needs to win at least one third down per drive, and the defense needs to win the last one. Alabama's run troubles have handcuffed the Tide close to the goal line. They rank just 66th in goal-to-go touchdown rate, and three of Young's four picks were thrown inside the opponent's 30.
Preventing an opponent from turning scoring chances into touchdowns is almost a prerequisite for pulling off an upset, and Bama is vulnerable in this department. The Tide settled for three field goals and threw a red zone interception against Texas A&M and lost by three. Against LSU, they missed a field goal and turned the ball over on downs at the LSU 39. Against Auburn, they turned the ball over on downs at the 19 and settled for a field goal. Against Arkansas, they attempted two field goals (missing one), turned the ball over on downs and fumbled at the 1.
Cincinnati doesn't have the most amazing red zone defense, but making a couple of red zone stops is a requirement.
4. Cincinnati's pass rush gets home. This might be the most important factor in the game. In the run-up to the Alabama-Georgia game, it was easy to assume the Dawgs would be in Young's face all game. Auburn had just sacked him seven times, and Georgia's pass rush is better than the Tigers'. But the Dawgs barely touched him.
By the numbers, Cincinnati's pass rush is even better than Georgia's. The Bearcats blitz on only 25% of dropbacks (69th in FBS), but they generate pressure 39% of the time (third) and sack the quarterback 9% of the time (16th).
End Myjai Sanders is the key. He has only 2.5 sacks on the season but has created eight sacks for teammates by creating havoc in the pocket and sending quarterbacks scurrying with his 46 pressures, by far the most on the team. Tackle Curtis Brooks (7.5 sacks), middle linebacker Joel Dublanko (5.5) and end Malik Vann (3.5) have all benefited from Sanders' work.
Young has shown the tendency to scramble himself into sacks at times. Alabama ranks only 67th in sack rate allowed, 75th on passing downs. If you can't corral him, he is probably going to make a big play; he has thrown 16 touchdown passes under pressure this season, and only one other quarterback (Houston's Clayton Tune) has thrown more than 11. But if Cincinnati can do what Georgia didn't and actually bring Young to the ground a few times, that's a game-changer.
Projections
Caesars Sportsbook: Alabama 35.8, Cincinnati 22.3 (Alabama -13.5, over/under: 58)
SP+: Alabama 30.5, Cincinnati 25.8
The Caesars line for this game has held steady at around two scores, but SP+ sees it as much closer. (Now is a good time to mention that against the two best teams they've faced over the past two seasons -- Georgia in 2020 and Notre Dame in 2021 -- the Bearcats overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 9.1 points and beat the closing line by a combined 15.)
The SEC championship game was a paradigm shifter. After narrowly surviving a string of upset bids in November, Bama suddenly looked like the same old, dominant Tide in Atlanta. If that team shows up in Jerry World, it's possible nothing else matters. But if the average 2021 versions of these teams show up, this will be a dogfight.
Georgia vs. Michigan
Georgia quarterbacks vs. small samples
I was originally planning to write a "Stetson Bennett vs. JT Daniels: Choose Your Own Adventure" segment here. Following Bennett's second-half miscues against Alabama in Atlanta -- which happened to be quite similar to his second-half miscues against prolific Alabama and Florida teams last season, which got him benched in favor of Daniels -- it was easy to wonder if coach Kirby Smart and offensive coordinator Todd Monken might plot a potential QB change in advance of the CFP.
It appears they are not. Monken told reporters this week that Bennett remains the guy. "If you look at the plays he's made, he's made national championship plays," Monken said. "His mobility in the run game and the pass game when things break down, we believe give us the best chance to win. It just happened where Stetson got an opportunity, took advantage of that opportunity, we continued to win." Georgia has officially chosen its own adventure.
The concerns remain, of course. Bennett has rarely found himself in must-score situations in the second half, and when he has been there, he hasn't responded well. In two seasons as part-time starter, Bennett has thrown 57 second-half passes when the Dawgs were either tied or behind. He completed just 28 of them for 313 yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions. Against Alabama, Georgia scored on two of its first three drives, then on two of its last nine, with two interceptions and two turnovers on downs. Daniels was seen briefly warming up on the sideline, but Monken and Smart stuck with Bennett.
One assumes the leash will be a little shorter if Bennett were to struggle against Michigan. But it's not hard to see why Bennett remains the starter. For one thing, a sample size of 57 passes from three games isn't exactly huge, and he has otherwise been strong. Plus, the timing of a change -- 13 games into the season, after being easily the best team in the country for 12 of them -- would be quite awkward.
Even beyond all that, however, it probably isn't relevant that Bennett struggles in track meets when Georgia-Michigan is unlikely to be anything close to a track meet. That's not the game Michigan is looking for.
Michigan's unprecedented rebound
It was easy to assume Michigan would have a rebound season of sorts in 2021. Despite some odd struggles in 2020, Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines came into the season ranked 11th in both five-year SP+ history and the weighted recruiting rankings I use for SP+ projections. The infrastructure of the program remained solid, even if the quarterback position was a mystery and the defense was under new leadership.
Still, Michigan really struggled in 2020. What we've seen this fall was more than a simple rebound.
Before 2020, it was easy to paint Harbaugh as a victim of his chief rival's success. In the two seasons before he came back to Ann Arbor, the Wolverines had gone 12-13 while ranking 39th and 42nd in SP+. But over his first five seasons, Michigan averaged 9.4 wins and a 9.8 SP+ ranking. He never quite got the quarterback position figured out, but that half-decade was a rousing success, overshadowed only by a run of utter dominance from rival Ohio State (12.2 wins per year in that span, with an average SP+ ranking of 4.0).
Michigan was legitimately poor in 2020, though. New starting quarterback Joe Milton III looked great in his debut but bombed out from there, and coordinator Don Brown's vaunted defense fell apart. The pass rush vanished when end Aidan Hutchinson got hurt, and the secondary got burned repeatedly.
Playing only six games prevented Michigan from falling very far in SP+ -- it slipped to just 33rd overall -- and obviously a normal season with a nonconference slate and a few more gimmes would have turned a 2-4 season into something closer to 6-6. But Michigan was miles away from the standard it had set in Harbaugh's first half-decade, and while the coach kept his job, he accepted a pay cut.
The Wolverines headed into 2021 without Milton (transferred) or Brown (fired). Star wide receiver Ronnie Bell got hurt in the first game of the season. And yet, here they are, having beaten Ohio State for the first time in a decade, winning their first Big Ten title in nearly two decades and reaching the CFP for the first time.
The improvement was both staggering and comprehensive.
On offense, the Wolverines improved from 64th to 14th in rushing success rate and from 82nd to 25th in standard downs* success rate. They doubled down on the run game and created explosive opportunities for the speedy Blake Corum while going from 100th to third in stuff rate. Corum went from 1.4 yards per carry before contact to 3.9, while the more physical Hassan Haskins went from 1.7 to 2.4. They dramatically improved both average third-down distance and third-down success by doing good, physical, Michigan-ish things far better. Tight ends got more involved too: Erick All went from catching 12 of 28 targets for 82 yards in 2020 to catching 34 of 44 for 374 yards this season.
* Standard downs = first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less. They are the downs in which an offense theoretically has its entire playbook at its disposal.
Over the course of the season, offensive coordinator Josh Gattis has slowly given first-year starting quarterback Cade McNamara more responsibility, and he has responded beautifully. McNamara was barely top-60 in Total QBR a month into the season, but he is 20th now. And despite some early-season red zone issues, which have mostly dissipated, Michigan averages 3.0 points per possession and ranks 16th in offensive SP+, easily the best numbers of the Harbaugh era.
Under new coordinator Mike Macdonald, a former Baltimore Ravens assistant under Harbaugh's brother, John, the defense became the Michigan Defense again, as well. Opponents are averaging 1.3 points per possession, and the Wolverines rank seventh in defensive SP+, their best numbers since 2017. They've leaped from 64th to 18th in success rate allowed and from 97th to ninth in three-and-out rate. The run defense has improved a little, and the pass defense has completely rebounded. The Wolverines have gone from 82nd to 15th in passing success rate allowed and from 122nd to 21st on third-and-long.
Hutchinson gives them a Will Anderson-esque presence in the pass rush, and he has found a ferocious dance partner in David Ojabo. The two have combined for 25 sacks and 106 pressures, and with renewed support, the secondary has thrived. Primary coverage guys DJ Turner and Vincent Gray are both allowing completion rates under 40% and raw QBRs under 35.0.
Hell, Michigan has even surged in special teams: Quinn Nordin and Jake Moody were just 3-for-9 on field goals last season, but Moody is 22-for-24 in 2021, and Michigan has gone from 32nd to third in my punt efficiency ratings and from 68th to third in special teams SP+.
In the CFP era, only two teams have climbed from lower than 33rd in SP+ in one year to reach the playoff the next -- 2017 Georgia and 2016 Washington -- and both of those teams were early in their respective coaches' tenures. In Year 7, Harbaugh not only arrested a slide but surged.
Michigan is better in nearly every department in 2021. But the most relevant question moving forward is, where on the field are the Wolverines actually better than Georgia?
Hat-on-hat football
Let's take a quick run through the Orange Bowl matchups at hand.
Note: All of the success rates listed here have garbage time filtered out.
When Michigan has the ball on standard downs*:
Michigan's run rate: 70% (13th highest in FBS)
Michigan's success rate: 53% (25th)
Georgia's success rate allowed: 37% (second)
Haskins and Corum are averaging 31 carries per game, and more than half of those come on first down, when they're averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Corum evades tackles, Haskins breaks them and Michigan gets awesome linemen out in space, blocking smaller defenders.
Georgia doesn't do "smaller defenders," however. The two-deep for their line averages 6-foot-4, 307 pounds, while the linebackers average 6-foot-3, 243 pounds. Michigan has rushed for 200-plus yards seven times, and it hung 297 on Ohio State, but only one Georgia opponent topped 130. This might be where the game is won or lost. If Michigan can win the line of scrimmage on offense, the Wolverines could win the game. If they can't, they probably won't. And when it comes to the run game, Georgia hasn't lost the line of scrimmage all season.
When Michigan has the ball on passing downs:
Michigan's pass rate: 70% (35th highest)
Michigan's success rate: 36% (20th)
Georgia's success rate allowed: 24% (seventh)
The increased trust in McNamara has indeed paid off. Throwing primarily to Cornelius Johnson, All and Mike Sainristil, he has proved dangerous in catching Michigan back up to the chains on passing downs. But unless you've got Bryce Young and Jameson Williams, this isn't a matchup you're going to win against the Georgia defense. If Michigan is falling behind schedule, it's going to be awfully hard to score much.
When Georgia has the ball on standard downs:
Georgia's run rate: 64% (29th)
Georgia's success rate: 54% (15th)
Michigan's success rate allowed: 42% (17th)
Georgia tries almost as hard as Michigan to establish the run. A quintet of running backs, led by Zamir White, has rushed 16.7 times per game on first down alone, averaging 5.8 yards per carry in the process. And when Bennett keeps the ball and looks downfield, he tends to find open receivers: He has completed 64% of his first-down passes at 18.3 yards per completion.
Terrifying freshman tight end Brock Bowers is the key target in these situations, but wide receivers Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey have combined for 24 first-down catches, 469 yards and four touchdowns, as well. With star wideout George Pickens finally healthy, the Dawgs could be even more dangerous. Michigan's defense is obviously rock solid on standard downs, but this appears to be a more even matchup than Georgia's edge when the Wolverines have the ball.
When Georgia has the ball on passing downs:
Georgia's pass rate: 66% (65th)
Georgia's success rate: 42% (third)
Michigan's success rate allowed: 25% (11th)
When Georgia falls behind schedule on first down, it does one of two things: hands the ball off to create third-and-manageable or, once or twice per game, finds Bowers for a big play. He has been a cheat code, catching 14 of 15 passes for 287 yards on second-and-8 or longer this season -- and on passes that are thrown an average of just 6.1 yards downfield. If Michigan's dynamite pass-rushing duo are to find success, they have to neutralize these quick shots. If the Wolverines do so, they could create favorable third-down distances and force punts.
Projections
Caesars Sportsbook: Georgia 26.5, Michigan 19.0 (Georgia -7.5, over/under: 45.5)
SP+: Georgia 28.8, Michigan 23.0
SP+ and the books see things just about the same way on this one, though SP+ gives each offense a smidge more credit. Either way, these teams both enjoy Big Burly Manball, and the team that does it better will advance. Signs point to Georgia, but with the way the Wolverines closed the regular season, they've got the confidence to land some shots.