Even when only a couple of games are close, Championship Weekend remains memorable. Baylor-Oklahoma State provided most of the weekend's nuttiness, and the other games were primarily about making statements: Alabama handing Georgia its first loss of the season in relentless fashion, Michigan destroying Iowa to nearly land the top seed in the College Football Playoff and more.
Here are some thoughts about what we just saw over the weekend and what we might see in the high-leverage games to come.
Georgia is still awesome (but Kirby Smart has an awfully big decision to make)
UTSA got humiliated by North Texas on Nov. 27, watching its unbeaten record vanish with a dismal 45-23 loss in Denton. Six days later, the Roadrunners played their best game in weeks to snare the Conference USA title.
Michigan was the "same old Michigan" after losing to Michigan State on Oct. 30. Then the Wolverines thumped Ohio State and wrecked Iowa to win their first outright Big Ten title in 18 years.
Alabama limped through an unconvincing November, beating LSU, Arkansas and Auburn by a combined 15 points and needing almost 60 full minutes to score a touchdown against Auburn. Then, looking as vulnerable as they ever have in the CFP era, Nick Saban's Crimson Tide scored a midround knockout of unbeaten Georgia in the SEC championship game.
You're never as bad as your worst game. Or to put it another way, Georgia is still a really, really good football team.
We always prioritize the last thing our eyes see, but even after Alabama's 41-24 win in Atlanta, the Crimson Tide are still the team that tried really hard to lose to LSU, Arkansas and Auburn in near succession, and Georgia is still the team that thoroughly dominated college football for 12 straight weeks. The Dawgs' dominance earned them a mulligan and a spot in the CFP despite the loss, and there's nothing saying that things would play out in the same way if they got another shot at the Tide.
It would help if the loss hadn't looked so familiar, though, wouldn't it?
Georgia matched up well with Bama in plenty of ways but got drastically outplayed at quarterback, just as it had in games against Alabama and Florida in 2020 and LSU in 2019 (aka the Dawgs' only losses in the 25 or so months before Saturday).
In these four losses, Georgia's opponents completed 68% of their passes at 15.4 yards per completion with a 185.5 passer rating. Georgia's quarterbacks in those games: 48% completion rate, 12.4 yards per completion, more interceptions than touchdowns and a ghastly 101.2 rating.
For most of the past three seasons, Georgia's quarterback play has been between sufficient and awesome. But in big games against teams with the best offense in the country, UGA passers have been forced to open things up and have failed in doing so. Stetson Bennett's performance on Saturday certainly wasn't Georgia's worst in this span of time -- he was 29-for-48 for 340 yards, three TDs and two picks -- but we were waiting all season to see what would happen if or when Georgia found itself in genuine need of points, and what we saw wasn't reassuring.
Before Saturday, Bennett had been on the field for just one second-half drive in which the Dawgs weren't winning by at least 14 points. He had six such drives against Alabama and threw two picks with two turnovers on downs and seven total points. Georgia scored twice on its first three drives of the afternoon, then scored only twice thereafter. Down 10-0 early, Bama put the game away with a 38-7 run.
It's fair to wonder if Smart is just stuck in the Stone Age, when defense won championships and the quarterback's main job was to simply not lose the game. He wouldn't be either the first or last defensive coordinator-turned-head coach to follow that line of thinking. But it's fair to note just how strange a hand he has been dealt by circumstance.
Heading into the 2020 season, after QB-deficient losses to LSU (understandable) and South Carolina (less so), Smart hired offensive coordinator Todd Monken -- someone with both spread and pro-style experience -- to modernize the Georgia attack a bit. He brought in two exciting transfers in Wake Forest's Jamie Newman and USC's JT Daniels. But Newman opted out of the odd 2020 season, Daniels was still battling a 2019 knee injury and redshirt freshman D'Wan Mathis proved overwhelmed and unready, so Smart was forced to lean on Bennett, a former walk-on.
Bennett proved so adept at the whole "don't lose the game" thing that he kept the job for a while, until Daniels took the reins after the two losses. Daniels was outstanding over the last four games in 2020 ... then got hurt again early in 2021. Bennett filled in wonderfully once more, and the Georgia defense was dominating at an even higher level than it had in 2019-20. Changing quarterbacks when you're winning big in every game just doesn't feel right, so even as Daniels seemed to be back to 100% health, Bennett remained in the lineup. Heading into Saturday, he had the second-best Total QBR in the country. As I've written before, he had the easiest job in the country, but he executed it perfectly.
On Saturday, the job got hard again, and he again faltered. But for everyone posting "Free JT Daniels" on Twitter during the game, not too many were saying anything of the sort before Saturday, and it's hard to pretend Smart was leaning on Bennett simply out of stubbornness -- they were a dominant 12-0, after all. Still, Smart has a really tough decision to make as he heads to his second CFP.
Daniels is almost certainly rusty, having thrown passes in only mop-up duty over the past two months, and benching your starting quarterback on the cusp of the postseason is something you'll never live down if it backfires. (Just ask Wade Phillips.) But beating both Michigan and, potentially, Alabama in a CFP rematch will almost certainly require more from the quarterback position than Bennett has delivered against top teams. Smart could stick with Bennett, convinced that the lessons learned from the Bama experience can help his team moving forward, and there's a chance he'd be proven right. But while reinserting Daniels into the lineup might lower Georgia's floor a hair, it would undoubtedly raise the Dawgs' ceiling too. If that's not weighing on Smart's mind over the next couple of weeks, it probably should.
Bryce Young and Heisman moments
This has been a messy, chaotic season. We headed into Championship Weekend with no slam-dunk Heisman favorite, and the most likely College Football Playoff scenario -- Georgia-Michigan-Cincinnati-Oklahoma State, if all the favorites had won -- included just one team with a prior CFP appearance.
Then Alabama rolled in like a crimson tide and erased a whole lot of uncertainty. Young indeed torched what had been by far the best defense in the country, thanks in part to the impeccable pass protection that was severely lacking in recent games. And while we still ended up with two CFP newcomers, the sport's leading behemoth barged its way into both its seventh playoff appearance and its third Heisman win in seven years.
We'll see if the flawed Bama of November makes an extended appearance in Dallas (where the Tide will play Cincinnati in the semifinals) or Indianapolis (site of the national title game), but with the Heisman on the line in Atlanta, Young played a nearly flawless second quarter. After a 4-for-9 start, he went 13-of-18 for 248 yards and two touchdowns, rushing three times for 40 yards and another score as well. In his one mistake, a fumble at the end of a 14-yard run, he somehow outmuscled Georgia's massive Devonte Wyatt, among other defenders, to recover the ball and set up another touchdown. He completed a 55-yard score to Jameson Williams to start the second half, then went into game management mode from there.
The Heisman race isn't so much a race as a wait for conventional wisdom to coalesce. Safe to say, it coalesced on Saturday. If Young and Bama had gotten torched, I'm not sure where it would have gravitated instead. Toward Ohio State's C.J. Stroud? Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson? In basically 17 minutes in Atlanta, Young appeared to have removed all doubt from the conversation. So did Alabama.
Jim Harbaugh couldn't get over the hump ... and then he did
It remains one of college football's classic what-ifs: In 1978, Nebraska head coach Tom Osborne, frustrated by his inability to get over the hump in the national title race (and, presumably, by fans' own frustration with this), seriously considered taking the Colorado job for a fresh start. He chose to remain in Lincoln ... where he continued to not quite get over the hump for a while longer.
Over his first 21 seasons in charge in Lincoln, Osborne's Huskers finished in the AP top 10 14 times but never won a national title. Then they won three in four years.
Osborne remains the ultimate case study for something I feel I've written a thousand times by now: The only way to break through is to just keep trying to break through. Keep fielding really good football teams, address needs as you find them, learn from setbacks, keep knocking on the door, and hope that fate smiles on you eventually. It eventually did in the 22nd, 23rd and 25th years of Osborne's career, while Bob Stoops, Oklahoma's head coach for 18 years, won the title in his second year and never again.
We'll see if or when a national title comes the way of Jim Harbaugh and Michigan, but in the past two weeks, they've cleared two hurdles that had begun to seem impossible.
In Harbaugh's first five seasons as head coach in Ann Arbor, Michigan won 10 games three times and finished in the SP+ top 10 four times, vast improvements over the time before his arrival. But the Wolverines couldn't beat Ohio State and only once had come particularly close. They had beaten the Buckeyes only once since 2003, and they had completely bottomed out in 2020. They went just 2-4 last fall, and it was a bad 2-4 at that -- the two teams they played with winning records beat them by a combined 87-32. Harbaugh took a pay cut, renovated his coaching staff and hoped for the best.
This is what "the best" looks like. Last week, they bullied Ohio State and won 42-27. On Saturday, in what seemed like a potential trap game against a stingy Iowa team, they outscored the Hawkeyes 28-0 in the second half of a 42-3 trouncing. In eight days, they went from "Jim Harbaugh can't beat Ohio State" to "Should Michigan be the top seed in the CFP?" Just keep knocking on the door and see what happens.
(Now that I think about it, this could probably be addressed to Kirby Smart, too.)
You're beautiful, Cincinnati
Let's not go too far with the "The process worked!" talk. The CFP committee can pound its chest about having included Cincinnati in the top four, therefore proving it's capable of doing so when so many (including me) said it wouldn't. But here's a quick review of what it took for the Bearcats to eke out the No. 4 seed in 2021:
1. Won all their regular-season games in 2020.
2. Won all their regular-season games in 2021.
3. Happened to have scheduled, years in advance, what ended up being the No. 5 team, on the road, in nonconference play.
4. Had three power conferences produce two-loss champions for the first time in the CFP era.
If any of these four things didn't happen -- including items 3 and 4, over which the Bearcats had almost literally no control -- they still probably wouldn't have gotten in, even after going unbeaten for two straight regular seasons. They needed Notre Dame to be as good as it was, they needed Oregon to lose twice and they might have needed the same from Oklahoma State.
At pretty much every other level of college football, simply winning your conference is enough to earn a playoff bid, much less going unbeaten. If you're a member of half of FBS' 10 conferences, you must follow the nearly impossible process above. But damned if Cincinnati didn't pull it off. Luke Fickell's Bearcats needed quite a bit of help from sheer circumstance to get it done, but they also needed to be one badass football team. And that's exactly what they are.
Plenty of awesome teams have lost to Alabama in the CFP through the years, and early betting odds suggest Cincinnati's fate will be similar. But this is a fast and physically skilled team that dominated Notre Dame in the trenches and held its own in the same way against Georgia in last year's Peach Bowl. It has one of the most explosive running backs in the country in Jerome Ford, a dynamic and mature quarterback in Desmond Ridder and an elite defense with one of the best cornerbacks in the country and a pass rush that generates loads of pressure without blitzing.
The Bearcats are projected to lose to Alabama because that's generally how really good teams' seasons tend to end, but they earned their spot, and they can neutralize just enough of Bama's typical matchup advantages to give themselves a puncher's chance. And that's a beautiful sentence to type.
An ode to conference champions
One of the draws to an expanded CFP, be it an eight-team field (which doesn't appear to be on the table) or 12 (which does), is the extra drama it would add to conference title races. Even if we still include only the top six conference champions as automatic qualifiers, that's still six win-and-you're-in games over the course of Friday evening and Saturday, plus plenty of teams positioning themselves for a bye or a potential first-round home game. But we of course don't need playoff stakes to care about conference title races. And here's a tip of the hat to the seven conference champions that didn't make the CFP.
It was still a big deal that Conference USA's UTSA, rebounding from the aforementioned embarrassment at North Texas, won its first title, outlasting Western Kentucky 49-41 in a Friday night track meet. The Roadrunners have signed head coach Jeff Traylor to a hefty contract extension as well.
It was still a big deal that Northern Illinois, winless in 2020 and rickety down the stretch this season, found its legs and threw early haymakers at Kent State on the way to a 41-23 MAC championship win in Detroit. Thomas Hammock inherited a program on the decline, watched it bottom out in his first season, then quickly built a healthy culture and exciting two-deep.
It was still a big deal that Utah State completed its own rebound by lifting the Mountain West championship trophy. Booster influence led the Aggies to rehire Gary Andersen in 2019, but he was fired early in a miserable second year. USU brought in Blake Anderson instead, benefited from a few breaks early in the season, then hit the accelerator late in the year. It destroyed San Diego State 46-13 in San Diego on Saturday.
It was still a big deal that Louisiana sent Billy Napier out a winner. In Napier's four seasons in Lafayette, the Ragin' Cajuns lost twice to Appalachian State in the Sun Belt championship game, then saw last year's title game against Coastal Carolina canceled because of the pandemic. Although he had already accepted the Florida job, Napier stayed in town to try for a title one last time. He got it with a 24-16 win over App and left successor Michael Desormeaux a program with an incredibly strong foundation.
It was still a big deal that, like UTSA, Pitt won its first outright conference title. An eastern independent until the 1990s, the Panthers have been solid plenty of times but had never topped the table by themselves. But quarterback Kenny Pickett peaked late in his career, and Pat Narduzzi's Panthers took total advantage of Clemson's 2021 downturn. And with the ACC title in the balance, they swarmed Wake Forest, scoring the last 31 points in a 45-21 win.
It was still a big deal that Utah closed one out. Kyle Whittingham's Utes had fit in beautifully following their move to the Pac-12, winning at least nine games five times in six years. They fell to Washington in the 2018 Pac-12 championship game and to Oregon in 2019, but given a third swing, they connected. After walloping Oregon 38-7 two weeks early, the Utes replicated the deed, surging to a 38-10 win and a long-sought Rose Bowl bid.
It was still a big deal that Baylor stopped Oklahoma State an inch or so short. The Bears' 21-16 win -- an incredible, lovable mess of a football game (which is how you could basically describe every OSU game this year) -- gave them their first outright conference title since 2013 and only their second in 40 years. Dave Aranda's professorial calm in the face of chaos is awe-inspiring, and the Baylor program is again on an upward trajectory, even if a loss to TCU kept the Bears from serious CFP consideration.
An ode to true playoff chaos
When it comes to the thought of an expanded CFP, there are still some holdouts, some who fear that having a 12-team field, with spots for six conference champions and six at-large teams (and the occasional three-loss participant), would render the regular season less meaningful and important.
It's easy enough to point to the increased importance and significance of conference title races -- and the importance of real, honest-to-God inclusion -- as a retort, but the next time this comes up, I might respond with one word instead: Shepherd.
The Rams are stalwarts among Division II's upper crust. They reached the national title game under legendary head coach Monte Cater in 2015, and they get to the quarterfinals more often than not (seven times in the past 12 years). If Division II had a simple four-team playoff, they'd have made it here and there. But because D2 has something more, we got to witness one of the most incredible pairs of wins you'll ever see.
If there was any doubt before the playoffs, the last 7 days has erased all doubt. 2 game winners. Tyson Bagent should be your unanimous Harlon Hill Award winner. @SURamsFootball pic.twitter.com/LXTzBVPEEU
— Highly Disputed (@DisputedHighly) December 5, 2021
Last week, the Rams beat Notre Dame (Ohio) 38-34 on a 23-yard touchdown pass from Tyson Bagent to Josh Gontarek with one second left. On Saturday, they avenged a regular-season loss to Kutztown with a 42-yard Hail Mary from Bagent to Alex Wetzel.
Bagent, a wheeler-dealer from Martinsburg, West Virginia, has thrown for 4,751 yards and 52 touchdowns, and Shepherd has averaged 46.4 points per game. They are basically the Matt Corral and Ole Miss of Division II, and I just want you to close your eyes and envision a 12-team FBS playoff at the end of this season. No. 8 Ole Miss would have hosted No. 9 Oklahoma State. Imagine Corral completing a last-second touchdown pass in Round 1, then landing a Hail Mary against No. 1 Alabama in the quarterfinals. Imagine the reaction, the sheer chaos. This is the world in which I want to live.