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College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 5

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Finebaum: 'Hard to take Penn State seriously' as CFP contender (0:55)

Paul Finebaum joins "SportsCenter" to critique Drew Allar, James Franklin and Penn State after another loss in a big game to an AP top-10 team. (0:55)

Week 5 of the college football season featured a series of heavyweight battles, headlined by Oregon beating Penn State in double overtime, Alabama posting a huge road win at Georgia and Ole Miss knocking off LSU.

But there were surprises and close calls up and down the scoreboard, resulting in the biggest shakeup yet in the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures.

As in last season's inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we'll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20

Times and networks TBD.

Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Texas Tech

Bonagura: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Oklahoma

Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Indiana

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: For the past few weeks, the ACC was quietly positioning itself for a shot at two playoff bids and maybe -- gasp! -- even three with Miami, Florida State and Georgia Tech all rounding into impressive form. For all three to get in, it would have taken an unlikely set of circumstances, and now it seems like that scenario is off the table.

Florida State's loss to Virginia was a momentum killer, and Georgia Tech squeaked by with an uninspiring performance against Wake Forest. The knee-jerk reaction from those results is to conclude neither of those teams will do enough for an at-large bid and that the ACC is likely a one-bid league (while also considering Louisville is still undefeated).

Schlabach: It was another crazy weekend in college football, as three of the top five teams in the AP poll went down: No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 LSU and No. 5 Georgia. No. 8 Florida State also lost 46-38 in two overtimes at Virginia on Friday night. I think it was a preview as to what's to come over the final nine weeks of the regular season. There's so much more parity in the Power 4 conferences, especially in the SEC, which figures to have contenders knocking each other off every Saturday. The days of a dominant champion seem to be over, thanks to the transfer portal and NIL.

Oregon moved up three spots in my seedings after its 30-24 victory in two overtimes at Penn State, which is the best win of the season so far. Ohio State and Miami remained in my top four, while I wasn't quite sure what to do with the fourth spot. I went with Texas A&M, while also seriously considering Ole Miss and Texas Tech.

Alabama is back in my top 12 after it ended Georgia's 33-game home winning streak with a 24-21 win at Sanford Stadium. Kirby Smart has won two national titles at his alma mater, but he can't figure out how to beat the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs and Nittany Lions remain in my top 12 for now.


CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Miami

CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State

CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Texas A&M

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: Remember when Alabama was dead and buried a couple of weeks ago? Well, after the Tide's win against Georgia, ESPN's Football Power Index projects that only Ole Miss will finish with a better record from the SEC than Bama and that no team in the conference has a better chance to win out (albeit it's a slight 7.6% chance).

Ole Miss was the big mover this week, jumping to the front of the SEC with a key win against LSU -- and the Rebels have just two ranked opponents left on their schedule (Georgia and Oklahoma). With that being the case, Ole Miss feels like the safest pick from the SEC to reach the playoff.

Schlabach: My bracket would produce some compelling storylines in the quarterfinals, especially in the Cotton Bowl Classic, where Smart would meet his former defensive coordinator Dan Lanning. Miami and Texas Tech have relied heavily on the transfer portal in building their rosters, and the Hurricanes would have an advantage playing the Red Raiders at home.

An Alabama-Ohio State contest in the Rose Bowl would be one of the better CFP games, and an all-SEC affair in New Orleans would probably make the Sugar Bowl organizers pretty happy.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: The way I see it, Oregon's win at Penn State solidified the Ducks as a top-two team, alongside Ohio State -- and they get a bye week to prepare for another massive game Oct. 11 against Indiana. From there, Oregon has a manageable schedule with no teams that are currently ranked the rest of the way.

Ohio State has allowed a total of 22 points in four games and appears to be on a collision course with Oregon in the Big Ten title game, which has the potential to be a national title game preview.

Schlabach: I think you could argue that the Ducks are the No. 1 team in the FBS right now. Former UCLA transfer Dante Moore is playing like the best quarterback in the country, and the Oregon defense did a great job containing Penn State's running game, while giving quarterback Drew Allar tight windows to throw. I've got the Ducks getting past Miami in the Fiesta Bowl.

Lane Kiffin has done an unbelievable job building Ole Miss into an SEC title contender again, and he has one of the best stories in the sport in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. He helped Ferris State in Michigan win two NCAA Division II national championships, and he's lighting it up in the SEC. He threw for 314 yards and ran for 71 in the Rebels' 24-19 upset of LSU. Meanwhile, the Ole Miss defense held the Tigers to 59 rushing yards and made things difficult for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.

Ole Miss still plays at Georgia, Oklahoma and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, so it's going to be a tough road the rest of the way.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Navy vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Troy vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Clemson
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Pittsburgh

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UConn vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: James Madison vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Louisiana Tech

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Utah State vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Hawai'i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kansas vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Michigan State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Rice vs. Hawai'i
Schlabach: SMU vs. Kansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: SMU vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Duke vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Maryland

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Cal
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC

Bonagura: Florida State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Tennessee

Kinder's Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Houston vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: TCU vs. Missouri

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Auburn vs. NC State

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Houston vs. Western Kentucky

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Mississippi State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Texas
Schlabach: Iowa vs. LSU

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UCF vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Kansas vs. UTSA

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Auburn
Schlabach: BYU vs. South Carolina

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Vanderbilt

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Washington
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Arizona State