Inside Rivalry Week: Keys to Michigan-Ohio State, Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, clinching scenarios and more

Two things are inevitably true about losing streaks:

1. They feel like they're never going to end.
2. They end.

By the time they kick off on Saturday, it will have been 3,654 and 2,548 days, respectively, since Michigan defeated Ohio State and Oklahoma State defeated Oklahoma. In the past 18 years, the Wolverines have only taken down their biggest rivals once; the Cowboys twice.

Now would be a particularly good time to end these streaks. The Michigan-Ohio State game winner will find itself one win from the College Football Playoff, and while Saturday night's Bedlam winner will need a little bit of help to reach the top four, they could get awfully close.

The stakes are always high for Rivalry Week, but they are particularly high in Ann Arbor and Stillwater. Let's talk about this and the week's other big games and storylines. We've got a lot of ground to cover.

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Ohio State-Michigan | Oklahoma-Oklahoma State | Alabama-Auburn | Cincy-ECU | Clinching scenarios | Best of the rest

How does Michigan actually beat Ohio State?

No. 2 Ohio State at No. 5 Michigan (Saturday, noon ET, Fox)

There's a recipe for beating every team. Granted, for some it's basically "Butter the bread, place in skillet, put cheese on each slice," and for others it's the most complicated dessert in "Mary Berry's Baking Bible." But a recipe exists all the same.

We explored the Beating Georgia recipe a couple of weeks ago, and since Ohio State's domination of Michigan State last week made the Buckeyes feel inevitable -- and since most recent OSU-Michigan games have left us with the same feeling -- it's time to do the same for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State has obviously rounded into form. Head coach Ryan Day shuffled defensive playcalling responsibilities after a Week 2 loss to Oregon, and the Buckeyes have allowed just 15.4 points per game over their past eight contests. Meanwhile, their offense has easily been the best in FBS. When the receiver trio of Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Chris Olave is dialed in, you're left with choices like "I don't know, maybe try to force them to run the ball?" Then you remember that TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams average 7.4 yards per carry.

If Michigan -- or anyone else -- is going to take down this version of Ohio State, there are three must-win areas of opportunity.

1. Win the red zone. This goes for basically any game against anyone, and Michigan knows the perils of red zone failure well. The Wolverines generated more scoring chances than Michigan State in their 37-33 loss to the Spartans but both settled for field goals and allowed nothing but touchdowns.

Whatever tricks the Wolverines may have up their sleeve, now's the time to deploy them. The Buckeyes don't give you many scoring chances, but they rank 111th in red zone touchdown rate allowed (70%) and 124th in goal-to-go touchdown rate (91%). The offense has been good but less than elite as well -- 30th in red zone TD rate (68%) and 19th on goal-to-go (85%). They will probably create more scoring chances than you, so you have to generate more points per chance.

2. Punish a passive defense. The Buckeyes have indeed improved defensively, jumping to 17th in points allowed per drive and 14th in defensive SP+. But they contain you more than destroy you, and they're downright passive on passing downs*. They're 86th in blitzes per dropback and 56th in sack rate, and while they allow almost no big plays in obvious pass situations, they also rank 73rd in passing downs success rate allowed.

For a run-first team, Michigan has its moments throwing the football. The Wolverines rank 24th in passing downs success rate, and quarterback Cade McNamara produces his best numbers on third down: 65% completion rate, 9.4 yards per dropback, 71.8 raw QBR. He prefers short, quick passes, primarily to his right, but the Wolverines have countered that tendency just enough to keep defenders honest.

* I define passing downs as second-and-8 or more or third- or fourth-and-5 or more.

3. Make them 0-for-third-and-long. It's your one chance. Every stop the Wolverines make will be a victory, and making a few stops will require acing the third-and-long test.

As spectacular as Ohio State's offense is, it's still guided by a redshirt freshman quarterback in C.J. Stroud. He has moved high up the Heisman leaderboard, but he still sometimes looks like a first-year starter. While the Buckeyes top FBS in third-down conversion rate with six or fewer yards to go (74%, with no one else higher than 68%), they convert just 25% on third-and-7 or more, 59th in the country and well behind other great offenses. Michigan allows a 19% conversion rate on third-and-7 or more, 20th overall. Make that closer to 10% or so in what will likely be rare third-and-longs, and things get interesting.

Oklahoma State is favored. Is that a good thing?

No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

On paper, Oklahoma State has the better chance of ending its rivalry losing streak. Caesars gives the Cowboys a four-point edge, which befits the way they have played of late. Since a 24-21 loss at Iowa State on Oct. 23, they have outscored four opponents by an average of 41-6. The offense, an early-season albatross, has perked up a bit, and on a per-drive basis, the defense ranks second in points allowed and third in yards. The Pokes generate massive pass pressure without blitzing much -- seventh in pressure rate, second in sack rate -- and play the most physical man coverage that the officials will allow. (How much the refs allow varies from game to game.) The offense's job is to move the chains a couple of times before punting, tilt the field and wait for opportunities.

We've been here before, though. While Mike Gundy has only beaten Oklahoma once in 12 tries as an underdog, he's also only done it once in four tries as a favorite. The Pokes were favored by two in 2017, 10 in 2013 and 2½ in 2010 and lost all three games. Their one win as a favorite was an absolute romp (44-10 in 2011), but when it comes to Bedlam, OU has delivered its best more frequently than OSU of late. It's not hard to envision a scenario in which the OU offense makes a couple of big plays -- perhaps via Caleb Williams-to-Marvin Mims bomb -- and forces OSU to keep up. An aggressive Sooners defense forces mistakes from quarterback Spencer Sanders, everything snowballs, and OU scores another rivalry upset.

The OU passing game will be the obvious key. Once good defenses showed up on the schedule -- OU's past two opponents, Baylor and Iowa State, rank 15th and 29th, respectively, in defensive SP+ -- quarterback Williams began to more frequently look like the freshman he is.

Williams' first three starts: 77% completion rate, 15.6 yards per completion, 1.4% INT rate, 7.6% sack rate, 4.0 completions per game of 20+ yards

Williams' past two starts: 47% completion rate, 13.5 yards per completion, 8.3% INT rate, 16.3% sack rate, 1.0 completions per game of 20+

OSU's secondary is aggressive, and the Cowboys will give you downfield opportunities at times, trusting that either your receivers won't beat their cornerbacks -- Christian Holmes and Jarrick Bernard-Converse are outstanding -- or their pass rush will get to your QB. Williams has been extremely sackable of late, but the Sooners have better weapons than most of the teams on OSU's schedule. If Williams hits a haymaker or two, Boone Pickens Stadium could get awfully tense, even if recent trends give OSU an edge.

Alabama is vulnerable (by Alabama standards)

No. 3 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Give every FBS head coach some truth serum and ask whether they would prefer to have their team this year or Alabama's, and at most two guys -- Georgia's Kirby Smart and Ohio State's Day -- would say, "Give me my team." The Crimson Tide have a Heisman favorite (quarterback Bryce Young), one of the two best defensive players in the country (linebacker Will Anderson Jr.) and maybe no genuine weaknesses.

The bar is really high for Nick Saban's Crimson Tide, however, and this might still be the worst Bama team in nearly a decade. You have to go back to 2013 to find a Bama team with a lower SP+ percentile rating than their current 97.6%. It appears that this is Bama's version of a hangover season -- a year after fielding maybe the single greatest team in college football history, the Tide are merely excellent.

If motivation has been an issue, you figure that ceases to be the case now. Their next two games are the Iron Bowl at Auburn and the SEC Championship vs. top-ranked Georgia. Will we see the best version of Bama moving forward? Or are some of the team's worst habits -- Young taking a few too many sacks, the red zone defense suffering glitches, the pass defense being a little too passive -- just baked into the cake at this point?

If the bad habits remain, is there anything Auburn and backup quarterback TJ Finley can do about it? Bama's only loss this year came against a backup (41-38 to A&M and Zach Calzada), but losing to an Auburn team that has slipped from 15th to 29th in SP+ over the past three weeks would be an even bigger surprise.