Two things are inevitably true about losing streaks:
1. They feel like they're never going to end.
2. They end.
By the time they kick off on Saturday, it will have been 3,654 and 2,548 days, respectively, since Michigan defeated Ohio State and Oklahoma State defeated Oklahoma. In the past 18 years, the Wolverines have only taken down their biggest rivals once; the Cowboys twice.
Now would be a particularly good time to end these streaks. The Michigan-Ohio State game winner will find itself one win from the College Football Playoff, and while Saturday night's Bedlam winner will need a little bit of help to reach the top four, they could get awfully close.
The stakes are always high for Rivalry Week, but they are particularly high in Ann Arbor and Stillwater. Let's talk about this and the week's other big games and storylines. We've got a lot of ground to cover.
Jump to a section:
Ohio State-Michigan | Oklahoma-Oklahoma State | Alabama-Auburn | Cincy-ECU | Clinching scenarios | Best of the rest
How does Michigan actually beat Ohio State?
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 5 Michigan (Saturday, noon ET, Fox)
There's a recipe for beating every team. Granted, for some it's basically "Butter the bread, place in skillet, put cheese on each slice," and for others it's the most complicated dessert in "Mary Berry's Baking Bible." But a recipe exists all the same.
We explored the Beating Georgia recipe a couple of weeks ago, and since Ohio State's domination of Michigan State last week made the Buckeyes feel inevitable -- and since most recent OSU-Michigan games have left us with the same feeling -- it's time to do the same for the Buckeyes.
Ohio State has obviously rounded into form. Head coach Ryan Day shuffled defensive playcalling responsibilities after a Week 2 loss to Oregon, and the Buckeyes have allowed just 15.4 points per game over their past eight contests. Meanwhile, their offense has easily been the best in FBS. When the receiver trio of Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Chris Olave is dialed in, you're left with choices like "I don't know, maybe try to force them to run the ball?" Then you remember that TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams average 7.4 yards per carry.
If Michigan -- or anyone else -- is going to take down this version of Ohio State, there are three must-win areas of opportunity.
1. Win the red zone. This goes for basically any game against anyone, and Michigan knows the perils of red zone failure well. The Wolverines generated more scoring chances than Michigan State in their 37-33 loss to the Spartans but both settled for field goals and allowed nothing but touchdowns.
Whatever tricks the Wolverines may have up their sleeve, now's the time to deploy them. The Buckeyes don't give you many scoring chances, but they rank 111th in red zone touchdown rate allowed (70%) and 124th in goal-to-go touchdown rate (91%). The offense has been good but less than elite as well -- 30th in red zone TD rate (68%) and 19th on goal-to-go (85%). They will probably create more scoring chances than you, so you have to generate more points per chance.
2. Punish a passive defense. The Buckeyes have indeed improved defensively, jumping to 17th in points allowed per drive and 14th in defensive SP+. But they contain you more than destroy you, and they're downright passive on passing downs*. They're 86th in blitzes per dropback and 56th in sack rate, and while they allow almost no big plays in obvious pass situations, they also rank 73rd in passing downs success rate allowed.
For a run-first team, Michigan has its moments throwing the football. The Wolverines rank 24th in passing downs success rate, and quarterback Cade McNamara produces his best numbers on third down: 65% completion rate, 9.4 yards per dropback, 71.8 raw QBR. He prefers short, quick passes, primarily to his right, but the Wolverines have countered that tendency just enough to keep defenders honest.
* I define passing downs as second-and-8 or more or third- or fourth-and-5 or more.
3. Make them 0-for-third-and-long. It's your one chance. Every stop the Wolverines make will be a victory, and making a few stops will require acing the third-and-long test.
As spectacular as Ohio State's offense is, it's still guided by a redshirt freshman quarterback in C.J. Stroud. He has moved high up the Heisman leaderboard, but he still sometimes looks like a first-year starter. While the Buckeyes top FBS in third-down conversion rate with six or fewer yards to go (74%, with no one else higher than 68%), they convert just 25% on third-and-7 or more, 59th in the country and well behind other great offenses. Michigan allows a 19% conversion rate on third-and-7 or more, 20th overall. Make that closer to 10% or so in what will likely be rare third-and-longs, and things get interesting.
Oklahoma State is favored. Is that a good thing?
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
On paper, Oklahoma State has the better chance of ending its rivalry losing streak. Caesars gives the Cowboys a four-point edge, which befits the way they have played of late. Since a 24-21 loss at Iowa State on Oct. 23, they have outscored four opponents by an average of 41-6. The offense, an early-season albatross, has perked up a bit, and on a per-drive basis, the defense ranks second in points allowed and third in yards. The Pokes generate massive pass pressure without blitzing much -- seventh in pressure rate, second in sack rate -- and play the most physical man coverage that the officials will allow. (How much the refs allow varies from game to game.) The offense's job is to move the chains a couple of times before punting, tilt the field and wait for opportunities.
We've been here before, though. While Mike Gundy has only beaten Oklahoma once in 12 tries as an underdog, he's also only done it once in four tries as a favorite. The Pokes were favored by two in 2017, 10 in 2013 and 2½ in 2010 and lost all three games. Their one win as a favorite was an absolute romp (44-10 in 2011), but when it comes to Bedlam, OU has delivered its best more frequently than OSU of late. It's not hard to envision a scenario in which the OU offense makes a couple of big plays -- perhaps via Caleb Williams-to-Marvin Mims bomb -- and forces OSU to keep up. An aggressive Sooners defense forces mistakes from quarterback Spencer Sanders, everything snowballs, and OU scores another rivalry upset.
The OU passing game will be the obvious key. Once good defenses showed up on the schedule -- OU's past two opponents, Baylor and Iowa State, rank 15th and 29th, respectively, in defensive SP+ -- quarterback Williams began to more frequently look like the freshman he is.
Williams' first three starts: 77% completion rate, 15.6 yards per completion, 1.4% INT rate, 7.6% sack rate, 4.0 completions per game of 20+ yards
Williams' past two starts: 47% completion rate, 13.5 yards per completion, 8.3% INT rate, 16.3% sack rate, 1.0 completions per game of 20+
OSU's secondary is aggressive, and the Cowboys will give you downfield opportunities at times, trusting that either your receivers won't beat their cornerbacks -- Christian Holmes and Jarrick Bernard-Converse are outstanding -- or their pass rush will get to your QB. Williams has been extremely sackable of late, but the Sooners have better weapons than most of the teams on OSU's schedule. If Williams hits a haymaker or two, Boone Pickens Stadium could get awfully tense, even if recent trends give OSU an edge.
Alabama is vulnerable (by Alabama standards)
No. 3 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
Give every FBS head coach some truth serum and ask whether they would prefer to have their team this year or Alabama's, and at most two guys -- Georgia's Kirby Smart and Ohio State's Day -- would say, "Give me my team." The Crimson Tide have a Heisman favorite (quarterback Bryce Young), one of the two best defensive players in the country (linebacker Will Anderson Jr.) and maybe no genuine weaknesses.
The bar is really high for Nick Saban's Crimson Tide, however, and this might still be the worst Bama team in nearly a decade. You have to go back to 2013 to find a Bama team with a lower SP+ percentile rating than their current 97.6%. It appears that this is Bama's version of a hangover season -- a year after fielding maybe the single greatest team in college football history, the Tide are merely excellent.
If motivation has been an issue, you figure that ceases to be the case now. Their next two games are the Iron Bowl at Auburn and the SEC Championship vs. top-ranked Georgia. Will we see the best version of Bama moving forward? Or are some of the team's worst habits -- Young taking a few too many sacks, the red zone defense suffering glitches, the pass defense being a little too passive -- just baked into the cake at this point?
If the bad habits remain, is there anything Auburn and backup quarterback TJ Finley can do about it? Bama's only loss this year came against a backup (41-38 to A&M and Zach Calzada), but losing to an Auburn team that has slipped from 15th to 29th in SP+ over the past three weeks would be an even bigger surprise.
Cincinnati vs. a nasty trap game
No. 4 Cincinnati at East Carolina (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
After a month in third gear, Cincinnati finally shifted back up to fifth on Saturday and waylaid a solid SMU team 48-14. It was a reminder of just how high the ceiling is for Luke Fickell's Bearcats, but now comes a trap game. Before UC can take on a smoking hot Houston team for the AAC title and a potential CFP bid, the Cats have to handle a 7-4 ECU team that has won seven of nine and knows how to make games tense.
The Cardiac Pirates have played seven games decided by one score (two went to overtime) and two more that were within a score in the fourth quarter. They are a perfect, high-variability underdog. They're inefficient but explosive on offense -- running back Keaton Mitchell averages 6.9 yards per carry, while receivers Audie Omotosho and C.J. Johnson are averaging nearly 14 yards per catch. (Johnson caught 12 balls for 283 yards and a touchdown in a near-upset of Cincinnati two years ago.) They also blitz constantly and create lots of havoc with an active secondary.
Is ECU good? Not necessarily. If fifth-gear Cincinnati shows up in Greenville, there probably isn't much the Pirates can do about it. But if the Bearcats get caught looking ahead, this volatile Pirates team could make things uncomfortable.
Let's walk through the remaining division title scenarios
Rivalry Week is a fire hose. Not only are bragging rights getting distributed in high volume throughout the country, but nine more tickets to conference title games will also get handed out. The SEC (Georgia vs. Alabama), AAC (Houston at Cincinnati) and Sun Belt (App State at Louisiana) championships are set, but let's lay out the stakes for the other seven conferences.
Big Ten
East: The Ohio State-Michigan winner takes it. Simple enough. (Odds, per ESPN's FPI: Ohio State 62%, Michigan 38%.)
West: If Wisconsin beats Minnesota, the Badgers are going to Indianapolis, and if Wisconsin loses and Iowa wins, the Hawkeyes clinch. But if both lose, Minnesota takes the title ... unless Indiana upsets Purdue, in which case the tiebreaker edge goes back to Wisconsin. Crystal clear, right? (Odds: Wisconsin 65%, Minnesota 19%, Iowa 16%.)
Relevant games: No. 16 Iowa at Nebraska (Friday, 1:30 p.m., ET, BTN), No. 2 Ohio State at No. 5 Michigan (Saturday, noon, Fox), No. 14 Wisconsin at Minnesota (Saturday, 4 p.m., Fox).
Big 12
Oklahoma State is in. If the Cowboys knock off OU and Baylor beats Texas Tech, BU's headed to Jerry World. If OU beats OSU or Tech upsets Baylor, the Sooners will play for their seventh straight Big 12 title. (Odds of reaching the title game: OSU 100%, OU 55%, BU 45%.)
Relevant games: Texas Tech at No. 8 Baylor (Saturday, noon, FS1), No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC).
ACC
Coastal: Pitt is in.
Atlantic: If Wake Forest beats Boston College, the Deacs head to Charlotte. If Wake loses and NC State beats North Carolina, the Wolfpack win their first division crown. If both Wake and NC State lose, Clemson somehow pulls off its seventh straight title. (Odds: Wake 59%, NC State 31%, Clemson 11%.)
Relevant games: North Carolina at No. 20 NC State (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN), No. 18 Wake Forest at Boston College (Saturday, noon, ESPN2).
Pac-12
South: Utah has clinched.
North: If Oregon beats Oregon State, the Ducks clinch. If Oregon State wins, the title goes to either Washington State (if the Cougars beat Washington) or the Beavers (if Wazzu loses). (Odds: Oregon 73%, OSU 17%, Wazzu 10%.)
Relevant games: Washington State at Washington (Friday, 8 p.m., FS1), Oregon State at No. 11 Oregon (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN).
Mountain West
West: If SDSU beats Boise State on Friday, the Aztecs clinch. If they lose, the trophy goes to Fresno State with Thursday's win over SJSU.
Mountain: This one's messy. Boise State, Utah State and Air Force are all tied at 5-2. BSU holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over USU, but USU holds it over Air Force and Air Force holds it over BSU. If only two of the three teams win this weekend -- and BSU faces by far the toughest game (at SDSU) -- the tiebreaker is pretty easy. If all three win or lose, Air Force takes the title. (Odds: Air Force 61%, USU 31%, BSU 8%.)
Relevant games: Boise State at No. 21 SDSU (Friday, noon, CBS), Utah State at New Mexico (Friday, 1 p.m., FS1), UNLV at Air Force (Friday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
Conference USA
West: UTSA clinched with its win over UAB last week.
East: It's WKU at Marshall for all the marbles. (Odds: Marshall 57%, WKU 43%.)
Relevant games: WKU at Marshall (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
MAC
West: NIU and its six one-score victories already clinched.
East: The winner of Miami at Kent State heads to Detroit. (Odds: Miami 55%, Kent State 45%.)
Relevant games: Miami (Ohio) at Kent State (Saturday, noon, ESPN+).
Week 13 playlist
Here are a few more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. There's so much going on!
Missouri at No. 25 Arkansas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., CBS). Missouri upset Florida to reach bowl eligibility and has won five in a row in this series. Can Arkansas refocus after last week's near-upset of Bama?
Colorado at No. 19 Utah (Friday, 4 p.m., Fox). The Utes have won seven of eight since naming Cam Rising their starting quarterback. Can they stay sharp, or will they get caught looking ahead to the Pac-12 championship?
No. 1 Georgia at Georgia Tech (Saturday, noon, ABC). This game means so much to so many people. Hopefully it's a game again one of these years.
Florida State at Florida (Saturday, noon, ESPN). Twenty-five years ago, these teams played for the national title. Now they're two 5-6 teams playing for bowl eligibility. Ouch.
No. 22 UTSA at North Texas (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN+). UTSA is one win from 12-0, but UNT has won four in a row and is one victory from salvaging bowl eligibility.
Penn State at No. 12 Michigan State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC). A team that was in the national title hunt until last week, hosting a four-loss unranked opponent. And the spread is even at the moment. Totally normal stuff.
No. 15 Texas A&M at LSU (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN). Jimbo Fisher's Aggies against the team that really wants to hire Jimbo Fisher. The last couple A&M-LSU games haven't been thrillers, but this game always carries chaos potential.
No. 23 Clemson at South Carolina (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., SECN). Clemson will know by this point if it's won the ACC Atlantic, but any distraction could be costly against a feisty Gamecocks team that secured bowl eligibility last week.
No. 6 Notre Dame at Stanford (Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox). Stanford probably won't put up much resistance, but Notre Dame has been a super fun and exciting team of late.
No. 13 BYU at USC (Saturday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN). BYU could still sneak into the CFP top 12 and snare a New Year's Six bowl, and USC is a can't-look-away tire fire at the moment.
Small-school showcase
As if there weren't already enough going on, the 24-team FCS playoffs get underway, and the D-II and D-III playoffs are into the round of 16. Whip out the laptop and keep tabs on these five games in particular.
Division III: No. 16 Johns Hopkins at No. 4 Mount Union (noon, streaming). It would be a surprise if any of Division III's top teams were challenged too significantly this weekend, but JHU has scored at least 37 in all but one game and could make the Purple Raiders sweat for a bit.
Division II: No. 13 West Georgia at No. 5 Valdosta State (1 p.m., streaming). West Florida's first-round loss opened the door for VSU to make a run, but only if the Blazers get past a UWG team they beat by only two in October.
Division II: No. 4 Grand Valley State at No. 1 Ferris State (1 p.m. streaming). Another big rematch: Unbeaten Ferris State beat GVSU by seven on the road in October. Almost every Division II round-of-16 game is projected pretty tightly, so the chaos potential is off the charts.
FCS: No. 25 Northern Iowa at No. 6 Eastern Washington (4 p.m., ESPN+). EWU is averaging 47 points per game, and quarterback Eric Barriere has thrown for 4,257 yards and 40 TDs. Northern Iowa has allowed 17 or fewer points in eight of 11 games. These two teams play different sports.
FCS: Grambling at Southern (5 p.m., NBCSN). This isn't the most high-stakes Bayou Classic of all time -- neither team is in the SWAC West title hunt, and GSU has lost 12 of 16 and just fired head coach Broderick Fobbs. No matter. Watch the Bayou Classic because the Bayou Classic rules.