Undefeated Cincinnati made history Tuesday evening when it became the first team from a Group of 5 conference to enter the College Football Playoff selection committee's top four.
Now the challenge is staying there.
With only two rankings remaining, plenty can still unfold to change the picture -- especially with conference championship games looming -- but 22 of the past 28 CFP semifinalists have been ranked in the top four at this point in the season. The lowest ranking for an eventual playoff team with two rankings remaining is No. 7.
As expected, Ohio State rose one spot to No. 2 after its 56-7 dismantling of Michigan State, pushing Alabama to No. 3 following the Tide's 42-35 win against Arkansas. This was the first time the selection committee has dropped Alabama in its rankings following a win the previous weekend. That could mean the Tide are in trouble if they don't win the SEC.
Georgia is probably the only team right now that's a lock -- win or lose in its conference championship game. The Bulldogs are one of eight teams that have a chance to finish in the top four on Selection Day, Dec. 5.
Seven of those eight teams rank in the top seven of ESPN's Strength of Record metric, which has been one of the most consistent indicators of past semifinalists. The metric measures the chance an average top-25 team would have to achieve the same record, and 24 of the past 28 teams to reach the playoff were in the top four in the final Strength of Record rankings.
Here's a breakdown of the top eight contenders, as ranked by the selection committee Tuesday:
1. Georgia
Remaining schedule: Saturday at Georgia Tech, Dec. 4 vs. Alabama in the SEC championship.
How they get in: Winning the SEC will cement a spot in the top four, but Georgia will also likely finish as a semifinalist even if it loses to the Tide. It's hard to imagine the committee dropping Georgia out of the top four if it has been No. 1 through five straight rankings, and its lone loss is to a top-four team.
Why they could be left out: If by some slim chance Alabama beats Georgia the way Ohio State beat Michigan State last week, the selection committee might want to rethink how far Georgia sinks in a loss. Georgia's defense is so good, though, it seems highly unlikely it would surrender enough points to make this scenario realistic. And no, Georgia isn't losing to Georgia Tech. Literally nothing this season would be more surprising.
Strength of record: No. 1
2. Ohio State
Remaining schedule: Saturday at Michigan. The winner will clinch the Big Ten East division and face either Wisconsin, Minnesota or Iowa in the Big Ten championship game Dec. 4. (The most likely scenario is Wisconsin, which can clinch the West on Saturday with a win against Minnesota or losses by Iowa and Purdue).
How they get in: Win out. There isn't much, if any, margin for error after the Sept. 11 loss to Oregon -- which now looks worse after the Ducks' performance last week at Utah.
Why they could be left out: No conference title. That could either happen with a loss to Michigan on Saturday or a loss in the Big Ten championship game. The problem for the committee with an upset in the Big Ten title game, though, is that three of the five major conferences -- the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 -- would all have champions with more than one loss. A three-loss Wisconsin isn't getting in, even with a Big Ten title. And what happens if Alabama loses again? The top four could be Georgia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State.
Strength of record: No. 7
3. Alabama
Remaining schedule: Saturday at Auburn, Dec. 4 vs. Georgia in the SEC championship
How they get in: Win the SEC. The Tide have already clinched a spot in the conference championship game, so even if they lose to Auburn, they can still win the SEC. A two-loss Tide team that beats the No. 1 team in the country to win the league is in. A two-loss Alabama that doesn't win the SEC is a great debate. Alabama would have to lose a close game to Georgia in this scenario. The committee would have to deem Alabama "unequivocally" one of the four best teams in the country, and it would be measured in exactly the same way as one-loss Notre Dame, which also wouldn't have a conference championship.
Why they could be left out: A loss to Auburn on Saturday could do it. If the Tide don't beat Auburn, they will absolutely have to win the SEC to finish in the top four.
Strength of record: No. 3
4. Cincinnati
Remaining schedule: Friday at East Carolina, Dec. 4 vs. Houston in the American Athletic Conference championship game. Cincinnati will be the home team with a win on Friday at ECU.
How they get in: Win out and hope nothing changes. Cincinnati is two wins away from a truly historic season.
Why they could be left out: Beyond the obvious loss, Cincinnati also has to worry about getting jumped by Oklahoma State on Selection Day. The Cowboys have greater opportunities to impress the committee and possibly jump Notre Dame and Cincinnati when it matters the most. While the Bearcats will end their season against unranked ECU and No. 24 Houston, Oklahoma State will have a chance to beat two CFP top-10 teams in No. 10 Oklahoma and possibly No. 8 Baylor in the Big 12 title game.
Strength of record: No. 2
5. Michigan (10-1)
Remaining schedule: Saturday vs. Ohio State. The winner will clinch the Big Ten East division and face either Wisconsin, Minnesota or Iowa in the Big Ten championship game on Dec. 4. (The most likely opponent is Wisconsin, which can clinch the West on Saturday with a win against Minnesota or losses by Iowa and Purdue).
How they get in: Win the Big Ten.
Why they could be left out: A second loss. Michigan already lost to Michigan State, so losing even a close game to Ohio State would almost certainly eliminate the Wolverines. If they beat Ohio State but lose in the Big Ten championship game, the conference is likely out of the CFP this year, barring chaos elsewhere.
Strength of record: No. 5
6. Notre Dame (10-1)
Remaining schedule: Saturday at Stanford.
How they get in: More upsets and a convincing win against 3-8 Stanford. (See No. 2 Ohio State for one possibility). If the Irish can't get in with Cincinnati, they need to hope the Bearcats lose to Houston in the AAC championship game. Somebody -- either Ohio State or Michigan -- is obviously going to lose because they play each other, which will open a spot ahead of Notre Dame, but that would only bring them as high as No. 5 if there are still two SEC teams, the Big Ten champion and Cincinnati. To have a realistic shot, Notre Dame needs Alabama to have two losses, Cincy to lose and to hope that the Big 12 champion has two losses. Even if Cincinnati loses, though, the selection committee would still have to debate the head-to-head result of the Bearcats at Notre Dame. It's a debate Notre Dame might not win, which is why it could use even more chaos.
Why they could be left out: The top four stays status quo, with two SEC teams, undefeated Cincinnati and the Big Ten champion -- or Oklahoma State finishes as a one-loss Big 12 champion and earns a top-four spot.
Strength of record: No. 4
7. Oklahoma State (10-1)
Remaining schedule: Saturday vs. Oklahoma, Dec. 4 vs. TBD in the Big 12 championship game. If Oklahoma wins Saturday, the Sooners will play Oklahoma State again in the Big 12 championship game. If Oklahoma State wins and Baylor wins, the Pokes will face the Bears. If Baylor loses, Oklahoma advances.
How they get in: Finish as a one-loss Big 12 champion and get some more help. Oklahoma State could possibly jump undefeated Cincinnati on Selection Day but would obviously have a greater chance if the Bearcats lost. It could also benefit from the elimination of a two-loss Alabama. Other chaos would certainly help -- like a two-loss Big Ten champion -- but if Oklahoma State can run the table, it might need only one or two of those things to happen for the door to open. Oklahoma State could punctuate its résumé against back-to-back CFP top-25 opponents, regardless of who it faces in the Big 12 title game -- No. 10 Oklahoma or No. 8 Baylor.
Why they could be left out: A loss Saturday would eliminate Oklahoma State because it would have two losses (also to Iowa State) and no conference title. The Cowboys could also run the table and still be left out if Alabama beats Georgia (which would almost assuredly guarantee two SEC teams), the Big Ten champion has one loss and Cincinnati remains undefeated.
Strength of record: No. 6
8. Oklahoma
Remaining schedule: Saturday at Oklahoma State. Oklahoma, ranked 10th but No. 8 here for all intents and purposes, will clinch a spot in the Dec. 4 Big 12 championship game with a win Saturday.
How they get in: Finish as a one-loss Big 12 champion and hope for more chaos. The reality is Oklahoma State is the league's best hope at a playoff contender this fall, simply because of how the committee has viewed both teams to this point. A one-loss OU team that wins the Big 12 would be considered for a top-four spot, but it would at least need Cincinnati to lose, and for a major upset of Stanford over Notre Dame.
Why they could be left out: A loss Saturday, or the eye test. The selection committee might simply continue to think Notre Dame and Cincinnati are better teams, even if the Sooners win the Big 12. At No. 10 this week, OU is still looking up at two-loss Ole Miss (and two-loss Baylor). Oklahoma also has had some narrow wins this fall against unheralded opponents, starting with a 40-35 win against now 2-9 Tulane in the season opener, and more recently a 35-23 win against 2-9 Kansas on Oct. 23.
Strength of record: No. 8