Conventional wisdom can shift in strange and unexpected ways sometimes. Three weeks before Heisman ballots were due last season, oddsmakers gave Alabama's DeVonta Smith +2,200 odds of taking home college football's most coveted individual trophy, equivalent to about a 4% chance. A week earlier, he was at +5,000 (2%). But what appeared to be a four-quarterback race -- Clemson's Trevor Lawrence vs. Alabama's Mac Jones vs. Ohio State's Justin Fields vs. Florida's Kyle Trask -- went topsy-turvy late in the year.
All four of those signal-callers continued to mostly look the part, but Smith emerged as an alternative candidate for those who couldn't differentiate between QBs. He caught eight balls for 231 yards and three touchdowns against LSU on Dec. 5 to move to +2,200. He returned a punt for a touchdown in an otherwise quiet game against Arkansas and suddenly leaped to co-favorite status. Then he stole the show in the SEC championship game, catching 15 of Jones' passes for 184 yards and two scores in Alabama's 52-46 win over Trask and Florida.
Smith's rise was the final chapter in one of the most storybook careers ever -- he caught the national title-winning touchdown in overtime as a freshman, then finished with a second title and the Heisman as a senior -- and even by this late point in the season, we didn't really know it was about to happen.
Looking at the current Heisman odds for 2021, it wouldn't be a total surprise if we saw another out-of-nowhere run.
Current Heisman odds, per Caesars:
QB Bryce Young (Alabama) +180
QB C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) +280
RB Kenneth Walker III (Michigan State) +280
QB Matt Corral (Ole Miss) +700
QB Kenny Pickett (Pitt) +2,500
QB Caleb Williams (Oklahoma) +4,000
RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State) +4,000
QB Sam Hartman (Wake Forest) +5,000
QB Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati) +6,000
DL Jordan Davis (Georgia) +8,000
LB Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama) +8,000
To be sure, a clear crop of favorites has emerged. Young, Stroud and Walker all have +280 odds or better, and while Corral's stock has fallen as he's battled injury, he's still a clear No. 4.
For all we know, the Smith-esque late-year charge might come from one of these players. Young could torch Arkansas, Auburn and Georgia and run away with the trophy. Stroud could do the same in games against awesome Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin (or Iowa) defenses. Walker could top his five-touchdown game against Michigan by leading the Spartans to an upset of Ohio State this weekend and roll from there.
Of course, Young could struggle against solid Arkansas and/or Auburn defenses, and Georgia could shut the Tide down like it has every other opponent this year. Stroud could make costly mistakes against excellent defenses, just as he did against Nebraska, Oregon and, to a lesser degree, Penn State, particularly in the red zone. Walker could be a bit player in losses to Ohio State and Penn State. Corral could get sucked into the morass that is the Egg Bowl and end up throwing six picks or something. (Nothing ever makes sense in the Egg Bowl.)
That last paragraph feels nearly as realistic as the one before it. The sure things aren't quite as sure this season, and if one of these top candidates doesn't seize the day, this race could end up as wide open as anything we've ever seen. Can Pickett or Hartman make a late charge in the ACC? Can Henderson keep breaking off 70-yard runs until voters take notice? Can we maybe actually acknowledge that the two best players in college football this year -- not including San Diego State punter Matt Araiza, anyway -- are on defense and perhaps deign to reward Davis and/or Anderson?
What if conventional wisdom just doesn't coalesce around a specific player?
We aren't guaranteed extreme weirdness in this year's race just yet, but it's a possibility. To remind ourselves of just how strange this could get, let's look back at some of the more unusual Heisman races to date.
There are a few different paths to strangeness, of course. We'll award points based on a number of different criteria. (Well, there are no real points. This is not a particularly scientific exercise.)
Were the main players from schools that aren't typically involved in the Heisman race (i.e. teams other than Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma and the like)?
Did the winner play for a school that was outside of the national title race? Did he play a particularly weird position by Heisman standards (i.e. anything other than quarterback or running back)?
Did the winner receive a pretty low percentage of votes for his era? How close was the runner-up? How close was the fifth-place finisher -- in other words, how deep was the field of viable candidates?
With all that in mind, here are what might have been the 10 weirdest races, in chronological order.
1936
Winner: Larry Kelley, Yale
What made it weird: Obviously positions were different in 1936, but Kelley was one of only two ends (along with Notre Dame's Leon Hart in 1949) to finish in the top three of Heisman voting, let alone with the thing. Bonus points for strange optics -- Kelley finished first, comfortably ahead of Nebraska back Sam Francis and Marquette back Ray Buivid. Somehow, all three finished ahead of a quarterback so famous he has his own trophy named after him: TCU's Sammy Baugh.
Yale was obviously a solid program in the 1930s and finished 7-1 and 12th in the AP poll that year. The charismatic Kelley was the team's voice and its playmaker -- he caught 17 passes for 372 yards and four touchdowns in 1936, massive stats for the day, and picked off a pass on defense as well. There was a bit of DeVonta Smith in this race too: Kelley not only finished ahead of Baugh, he also finished ahead of his own quarterback, fifth-place Clint Frank. Unlike Mac Jones, however, Frank came back the next year and won the award himself.
1956
Winner: Paul Hornung, Notre Dame
What made it weird: A Notre Dame player winning the trophy was anything but strange in that age -- Hornung was the fifth member of the Fighting Irish to do so in 14 seasons. But he was the only one to do it while his team went 2-8. The Irish fell into a major rut that season, losing not only to brilliant Oklahoma, Iowa and USC teams, but also to SMU and Purdue teams that finished a combined 7-10-2.
The Irish averaged only 13 points per game, but virtually anything good they accomplished was because of Hornung. The Golden Boy led the team in passing, rushing and passes broken up. He scored the most points on the team; he punted, and he nearly led the team in interceptions. His (and his school's) reputation allowed him to eke out a particularly tight race: Hornung earned 1,066 points, while Tennessee back Johnny Majors earned 994, third-place Oklahoma back Tommy McDonald came in at 973, fourth-place Oklahoma lineman Jerry Tubbs had 724 and some guy named Jim Brown of Syracuse earned 561.
1962
Winner: Terry Baker, Oregon State
What made it weird: First of all, an Oregon State quarterback won the Heisman! Baker is the only Beaver to finish in the top five, much less win it. Under Tommy Prothro's guidance -- Prothro would coach 1967 Heisman winner Gary Beban at UCLA, too -- Baker threw for 1,738 yards and 15 touchdowns, a 9-2 finish and OSU's second-ever bowl victory (6-0 over Villanova in the Liberty Bowl).
That was only part of what made 1962 unique, however. The race was super close -- Baker beat LSU back Jerry Stovall by only 89 points (707 to 618) and received just 21% of the total points. (Roger Staubach earned 55% in winning the Heisman in 1963.) Plus, an offensive lineman (Minnesota's Bob Bell) finished third, a defensive player (Alabama's Lee Roy Jordan) finished fourth and a mid-major quarterback (Miami's George Mira, and yes, Miami was very much a mid-major in the 1960s) finished fifth.
1972
Winner: Johnny Rodgers, Nebraska
What made it weird: At first glance, nothing. Rodgers was a star on one of the best programs of the day and had already left an indelible mark with his punt return touchdown in the Huskers' 1971 Game of the Century win over Oklahoma. It would have felt odd in retrospect if he hadn't finished his career with a Heisman.
That was about all that made sense, however. For one thing, Rodgers did most of his damage as a receiver -- he rushed 73 times for 348 yards in 1972 but caught 58 passes for 1,013 yards. He was a hybrid in a time when hybrids didn't exist, and to the extent that he was a receiver, he was the first pass-catcher to win the Heisman since Hart in 1949 (and the first of the specialization era). Beyond that, he also beat out a teammate: star Huskers lineman Rich Glover, who finished third. Rodgers was the first winner to receive less than 40% of possible points in seven years. This was a tight race, even if the winner seems obvious looking back.
1980
Winner: George Rogers, South Carolina
What made it weird: Rogers not only played for a non-blueblood -- he's the only Gamecock to finish in the top five -- but the Gamecocks went only 8-4 that year. He also won a reasonably tight race over a defensive player (Pitt's incredible Hugh Green) and, gasp, a freshman: Georgia's Herschel Walker, who outdueled Rogers in the Dawgs' 13-10 win over the Gamecocks on Nov. 1 and became the first freshman to finish in the top three since Georgia Tech's Clint Castleberry in 1942.
Rogers certainly benefited from voters' allergy to voting for either defenders or freshmen. (The latter has been rectified in recent years, at least.) But Rogers was also spectacular: A star return man in 1977-78, he spent two years as a feature back in 1979 and '80 and gained a combined 3,625 yards from scrimmage with 23 touchdowns. Green was truly the nation's best player in 1980 -- he recorded 17 sacks among 28 tackles for loss -- but Rogers was very, very good.
1987
Winner: Tim Brown, Notre Dame
What made it weird: Brown was listed as a wide receiver, first of all. He was either the first to win the award or the first since Rodgers, depending on how you classify the latter. Either way, he would go on to a Hall of Fame career as an NFL wideout, Brown was a Rodgers-esque hybrid in college -- in 1986-87 he rushed 93 times, caught 84 passes and scored 11 combined touchdowns -- and he was the best return man on the planet, scoring on three kick returns in 1985-86, then taking three punts to the house in 1987.
The oddities don't end there. Quarterback Don McPherson became Syracuse's first top-two finisher in 26 years after leading the Orange to an 11-0 regular season, while Holy Cross' Gordie Lockbaum finished an incredible third -- a Division 1-AA All-American as a defensive back in 1986-87, Lockbaum played both ways in '87, gaining 1,555 yards on 162 combined rushes and carries. It doesn't get much more unusual than that.
1997
Winner: Charles Woodson, Michigan
What made it weird: It felt strange that Peyton Manning didn't win this year's Heisman. Losing to a defensive player made it even weirder. Woodson beat a star-studded group -- Manning finished second, Washington State's Ryan Leaf third, Marshall's Randy Moss fourth, Texas' Ricky Williams fifth -- and became the first defender to win the award since two-way platoons had ended in the 1960s. As with BYU winning the national title as a mid-major program in 1984, voters seemed to be shocked by their own actions and went out of their way not to repeat their perceived errors, spurning incredibly deserving defensive candidates in the future. But Woodson was certainly deserving: He picked off seven passes (including a famous one-hander against Michigan State), returned a punt for a score against Ohio State and, in a brief offensive interlude, scored two rushing touchdowns and caught a touchdown pass.
This was actually the second of back-to-back odd Heisman votes. In 1996, Florida's Danny Wuerffel barely edged an Iowa State running back (Troy Davis) for the award while an offensive lineman (Ohio State's Orlando Pace) finished fourth.
2001
Winner: Eric Crouch, Nebraska
What made it weird: In 1997, Woodson won the Heisman with 1,815 total points. In 1998, Ricky Williams hit 2,355. Wisconsin's Ron Dayne in 1999: 2,042. Florida State's Chris Weinke in 2000: 1,628 while narrowly topping Oklahoma's Josh Heupel (1,552).
In 2001, Crouch won the vote with just 770 points, 62 ahead of Florida's Rex Grossman and 132 ahead of Miami's Ken Dorsey. His Heisman moments came early -- a classic 95-yard touchdown run against Missouri on Sept. 25 and a 63-yard touchdown catch late in a win over No. 2 Oklahoma on Oct. 27. From there, he ran out the clock and managed to narrowly hold on to his lead despite Nebraska's blowout loss to Colorado on Nov. 23.
Because Nebraska got so thoroughly drubbed by Dorsey's Miami team in the 2001 BCS championship, and because Crouch's year-end stat line was mediocre by Heisman standards -- 1,510 passing yards, 1,115 rushing yards, 25 combined touchdowns -- this has long been seen as one that voters got wrong. But he held on thanks in part to Grossman's 12 interceptions (plus a late-season loss to Tennessee that kept the Gators out of the national title game) and Dorsey's game-manager stat line (2,652 passing yards, 58% completion rate, 23 TDs). There wasn't a clear-cut winner this year, as might end up being the case in 2021, and Crouch's marquee moments got the job done.
2009
Winner: Mark Ingram, Alabama
What made it weird: On Dec. 5, 2009, Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh had 4.5 sacks of Texas' Colt McCoy as the Huskers held the unbeaten Longhorns to 202 total yards and 13 points, falling by only one point. It capped the most dominant individual defensive performance of the 21st century, Suh's 20.5-TFL, 12-sack rampage.
Seven days after that performance, Suh finished fourth in the Heisman voting, behind not only Ingram and runner-up Toby Gerhart of Stanford, but also behind McCoy himself. The Heisman will always be an offense-friendly award, and that's fine, but Ingram was maybe the third- or fourth-best running back of the Nick Saban era in Tuscaloosa, Gerhart averaged just 5.5 yards per carry as a workhorse out west, and McCoy had fallen short of even his own 2008 passing numbers. This was the perfect time to throw a curveball, but Suh finished 489 points back.
My own lingering frustration about the vote aside, this was also unique for how incredibly close the top three were: Ingram finished just 28 points ahead of Gerhart -- the smallest margin of victory ever -- and only 159 ahead of McCoy.
2011
Winner: Robert Griffin III, Baylor
What made it weird: Griffin was the first Baylor player to finish in even the top four since Don Trull finished 1,607 points behind Staubach in 1963. (And no one has since.) He had become the avatar for one of the most impressive turnarounds of the 21st century -- the Bears had averaged just 2.9 wins over the 12 seasons before RG3's arrival, and after coming back from a 2009 knee injury, he led them to seven wins in 2010 (with 3,501 passing yards and 635 rushing yards), then 10 in 2011 (4,293 passing, 699 rushing).
Griffin's Heisman win was pretty close, too -- he finished 280 points ahead of Stanford's Andrew Luck -- and the third-place finisher, Alabama's Trent Richardson, nearly finished with 1,000 points as well. Wisconsin's Montee Ball finished fourth after producing 2,229 yards from scrimmage and 39 touchdowns, and LSU defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, the Honey Badger himself, became a sentimental favorite late in the season after a series of incredible defensive plays and a pair of punt return scores. This was a crowded field, and while Mathieu was probably the best player, Griffin won the honors as the best offensive player.