The College Football Playoff selection committee didn't make any drastic changes to its second of six rankings on Tuesday night, but with Michigan State losing to Purdue on Saturday, No. 3 Oregon, No. 4 Ohio State and No. 5 Cincinnati were all promoted one spot from the first ranking. No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Alabama stood firm at the top.
It wasn't a huge surprise, considering just about everyone struggled to win in convincing fashion on Saturday.
No. 7 Michigan State, though, dropped behind No. 6 Michigan in spite of beating the Wolverines 37-33 on Oct. 30, so it wasn't entirely without a little drama. Here's what it all means moving forward:
1. The Big Ten is in for a wild three weeks
As head-scratching as the head-to-head snub is -- especially just one week after honoring Oregon's Sept. 11 win at Ohio State -- one-loss Michigan State is still in a strong position, along with Ohio State and Michigan. The question is which team will be the last one standing, as they all play each other in the East Division. With three Big Ten East teams ranked in the top seven, any of them could finish in the top four, but Ohio State has the most difficult path.
Now that No. 19 Purdue has jumped into the CFP top 25, Ohio State has to play three straight ranked opponents, and its remaining schedule is No. 9 in the country. If Ohio State survives the "Spoilermakers" on Saturday, the Buckeyes still have to beat Michigan State at home on Nov. 20, followed by the regular-season finale at rival Michigan.
ESPN's Football Power Index currently gives the Buckeyes at least a 62% chance to win each of its three remaining games and a 40% chance to win out. If Michigan or Michigan State can hand the Buckeyes their second loss of the season and earn a top-four win in the process, they'd also have an opportunity to punctuate their résumé with a win against a ranked opponent in the Big Ten championship game.
Regardless of which team it is, as long as the Big Ten East winner finishes with no more than one loss, it looks like a lock for a top-four finish.
2. Cincinnati still needs help -- but it has a path
The reality is that the Bearcats moved up to the No. 5 spot thanks in large part to Michigan State's loss -- not because of anything they did in Saturday's win against Tulsa. Still, it's evidence that the more upsets that happen, the wider the door opens to the playoff.
In addition to finishing as undefeated American Athletic Conference champions, Cincinnati needs at least two of three scenarios to unfold together: A two-loss Alabama team that is beaten soundly in the SEC championship game, a two-loss Pac-12 champion and/or a two-loss Big 12 champion.
Cincinnati needs Georgia to beat Alabama convincingly enough in the SEC championship game that the committee isn't tempted to keep both teams in the top four (assuming Alabama wins the West, which it hasn't clinched yet). Second, Cincinnati needs Oregon to lose again (or have three-loss Utah win the league), because it seems highly unlikely a two-loss Pac-12 champion will make it to the semifinals.
It did help Oregon that No. 24 Utah sneaked into the top 25 this week, which will give the Ducks another ranked opponent in the Pac-12 title game, should they both meet there. (Currently, Oregon can clinch the Pac-12 North on Saturday with a win AND an Oregon State loss. Utah will win the South with a win AND an Arizona State loss.)
If Alabama and Oregon both have two losses, the top four could very easily be: 1. Georgia, 2. Big Ten champion, 3. Big 12 champion, 4. Cincinnati. If Georgia and Alabama both stay in the top four, though, it would more likely be Georgia, Alabama, the Big Ten champion and the Big 12 champion in some order depending on the games.
Because the Big 12 is still very much in play, Cincinnati needs some combination of those three things to happen. Even with one SEC team, the worst-case scenario for Cincinnati would be a top four that features one-loss conference champions from the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12.
Speaking of the Big 12 champion ...
3. Oklahoma Sooners will have their first opportunity to make a move on Saturday
The undefeated Sooners have been waiting in the wings, with no signature win on their résumé to truly engage the committee in top-four consideration.
That can start to change on Saturday, with a trip to No. 14 Baylor -- an opportunity that could potentially catapult Oklahoma ahead of Michigan and Michigan State next week if it wins convincingly. That's only the start, though, of what could be a major upward trend for the Sooners.
The committee would respect a win against Iowa State on Nov. 20, and Oklahoma can impress them further with a top-10 win at Oklahoma State to end the regular season. Plus, the Sooners would have a chance to punctuate their résumé in the Big 12 title game.
There's almost no question that an undefeated Big 12 champion would finish in the top four, and even a one-loss Oklahoma could potentially win a debate against undefeated Cincinnati, assuming it wins the league.
4. The committee loves one-loss Alabama, even on a bad day
Nothing came easy on Saturday for Alabama in its 20-14 win against LSU on Saturday, but it didn't seem to matter -- lending further credence to the possibility that even a two-loss Tide still has a shot to finish in the top four if they lose a close contest to Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Alabama should be heavy favorites in its next two games, against New Mexico State and Arkansas, which are both at home, before ending the season at rival Auburn. If Alabama loses in the Iron Bowl and Texas A&M runs the table, the two-loss Aggies would face Georgia in the SEC championship game -- opening up another possibility for a two-loss SEC team to finish in the top four if it was to pull off the upset.