November is usually the month that shapes the college coaching carousel. But when the calendar flipped last week, most of the biggest carousel storylines had already taken shape.
TCU's Halloween night surprise -- ousting future Hall of Fame coach Gary Patterson in his 22nd season -- provided the latest layer to a wild coaching cycle. Along with two Tier 1 jobs -- USC and LSU -- there have been multiple Big 12 openings in the same state (TCU, Texas Tech), a Pac-12 vacancy (Washington State) and three Group of 5 openings (UConn, Akron, UMass).
How wild has the 2021-22 carousel been so far? A coach fired in September (USC's Clay Helton) already has found a new job (Georgia Southern). Also, an assistant at a Big 12 school (Baylor's Joey McGuire) just became the head coach of another Big 12 school (Texas Tech), and the two teams will play Nov. 27.
There is more to come. Virginia Tech dropped to 4-5 after scoring only three points Friday night at Boston College. A change in Blacksburg seems all but guaranteed, although the school might wait a bit, as Justin Fuente's remaining guarantee drops by $2.5 million on Dec. 15. There also could be changes at Florida, Washington, Arizona State and elsewhere. One big job not opening is Nebraska, which announced Monday that coach Scott Frost will return in 2022, but with a reshaped offensive staff after firing four assistants.
Beginning with LSU and USC, here's a look at the latest involving key schools and names in what will be a fascinating cycle the next two months.
LSU, USC and where Mel Tucker fits in
The two highest-profile coaching vacancies will continue to generate the most attention, but for now, there's not much immediate action with candidates.
"It's quiet, but they're quietly active as well," an industry source said.
Despite Jimbo Fisher's strong confirmation of his intent to remain at Texas A&M, LSU will continue to push for the Aggies coach. The connection between Fisher, LSU and athletic director Scott Woodward, who hired him at Texas A&M, will make him the focus of LSU's search pretty much until the moment Woodward introduces someone else as Tigers coach.
Woodward gave Fisher one of the most coach-friendly contracts in college football history at Texas A&M -- $75 million guaranteed with zero penalty to leave. But Fisher has momentum in College Station with excellent recruiting and improved on-field results since 2020.
"Once Scott finally gives up on Jimbo, he doesn't have many obvious choices," an industry source said. "Do you look at [Iowa State's] Matt Campbell? Can you hire Lane [Kiffin from Ole Miss]? [Louisiana coach] Billy Napier's probably your basement."
One potential choice after Fisher is Michigan State coach Mel Tucker, whose team is 8-1 and last week debuted at No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, before the Spartans were upset by Purdue.
Tucker has a fascinating profile. He's in only his third year as an FBS coach but boasts an incredible résumé as an assistant, making stops with three NFL franchises and major college programs such as Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and LSU in 2000 under first-year coach Nick Saban. Tucker understands personnel and did an incredible job flipping Michigan State's roster through the transfer portal this past offseason.
"The mentors he's had on the head-coaching side, Nick [Saban] and Kirby [Smart] and the guys he's been around, that's pretty strong," an industry source said. "He had NFL time. If you're LSU or USC, you would certainly want a longer track record as a head coach, but everything's been pretty positive so far."
Tucker's previous SEC stops make a move to the league more likely than one to USC, although he shouldn't be written off anywhere. Although he spent only one season at LSU, he understands the pros and cons of the job. As an LSU source recently pointed out, while the past three Tigers coaches have won national championships, the past two also have been fired.
Another potential LSU option is Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, who's in his first year with the Crimson Tide. O'Brien, 52, is widely expected to return to a head-coaching role, potentially at a premier college program.
The names being mentioned most at USC continue to be Cincinnati's Luke Fickell, Iowa State's Matt Campbell, Baylor's Dave Aranda and Penn State's James Franklin.
Fickell is in the strongest position to land the job, and not only because USC athletic director Mike Bohn hired him at Cincinnati. His stock couldn't be higher after getting Cincinnati in position to challenge for a playoff spot. While Fickell is rooted in his home state of Ohio and soon will lead a Big 12 program if he stays at Cincinnati, he also might be more open to taking an elite-level job in a very winnable league such as the Pac-12.
"He might have to take it," an industry source said of Fickell.
Campbell remains another candidate of interest for USC and potentially LSU. Despite Iowa State's disappointing season, Campbell continues to post notable wins, including the Cyclones' third straight against Texas this past weekend.
Aranda brings a similar profile to Tucker. He's in only his second year as a head coach, but his accomplishments as an assistant make him intriguing, especially for LSU. Aranda is perhaps the only realistic USC candidate with SoCal roots, as he grew up in Redlands, California.
Franklin's name has been tied to USC the longest, and he seems like a good fit for the program, the environment and Bohn. He also might be ready for a fresh start. But hiring Franklin after the 2019 season (three top-10 finishes between 2016 and 2019) and hiring him now (10-8 since the start of 2020) are two different things. It's quite possible Franklin will remain at Penn State, where 2022 recruiting remains strong, and receive an enhanced contract. Athletic director Sandy Barbour is nearing retirement and might not want to go through a football search.
"If she has to kick in a few more dollars to keep James happy and keep him there, she'll do that," an industry source said.
The TCU impact on Texas Tech
When Texas Tech fired coach Matt Wells on Oct. 25, the school was positioned for two excellent candidates in UTSA's Jeff Traylor and SMU's Sonny Dykes. But two notable developments soon followed: Traylor agreeing to a major contract extension with UTSA, and the TCU job coming open.
Traylor's commitment to UTSA, which included a $7.5 million buyout, essentially took him out of contention. While Dykes is forever tied to Texas Tech through his father, Spike, the Red Raiders' coach from 1986 to 1999, his interest in returning to his alma mater -- he also served as a Texas Tech assistant under Mike Leach from 2000 to 2006 -- never seemed very strong. The TCU opening presented a potentially more attractive move for Dykes, who also could be considered for jobs such as Virginia Tech, or remain at SMU with an enhanced contract.
Texas Tech quickly moved on to other candidates and on Monday hired McGuire as its next coach. McGuire has a very similar profile to Traylor. Both won three state championships as Texas high school coaches before moving into the college ranks. Both are beloved in the state's high school community, and especially with the Texas High School Coaches Association. Traylor got to lead his own program first, but McGuire was under consideration to replace Matt Rhule at Baylor and now gets his chance at a Power 5 job.
Although Texas Tech considered other candidates such as Oklahoma's Alex Grinch, the McGuire pick makes sense on several levels. Athletic director Kirby Hocutt had gone outside the circle with Wells, who never seemed to be embraced in Lubbock, even with an improved team this season. Another outside hire could be "Wells 2.0," as an industry source noted last week. McGuire doesn't have Dykes' or Traylor's college head-coaching credentials, but he should connect well with the Texas Tech base.
TCU's search is moving a bit slower, but should accelerate soon. Dykes remains the focus, although TCU also will consider other offensive-minded candidates. Nevada's Jay Norvell is a possibility there. SMU has dropped consecutive games after a 7-0 start, and faces UCF and No. 6 Cincinnati the next two weeks. Although Dykes maintains that talk about his future isn't affecting the team, he might need to pick a path relatively soon.
"The safety net is Sonny Dykes," an industry source said of TCU.
Trouble brewing at Florida and Washington
Until recently, Florida's Dan Mullen and Washington's Jimmy Lake rarely, if ever, had their names in the same sentence. But the two coaches were twice grouped together after a miserable week. Both made comments about recruiting that they'd rather forget -- Mullen dismissing the in-season process outright, and Lake taking a shot at rival Oregon's academics. Then, after humbling losses that dropped their teams to 4-5, Mullen and Lake fired unpopular coordinators Sunday, with Florida dumping Todd Grantham and Washington dismissing John Donovan.
Staff changes are often preludes to head coach firings, and both Mullen and Lake are feeling heat entering the stretch run. Lake's situation is compounded by a one-game suspension for a sideline incident during Saturday's game against Oregon, where Lake appeared to strike Washington linebacker Ruperake Fuavai. The coach will miss this week's game against Arizona State.
Grantham's departure is the more significant move at Florida, but might not be the most painful for Mullen, who also fired offensive line coach John Hevesy. Mullen and Hevesy had worked together since the 2001 season, when they were offensive assistants at Bowling Green under Urban Meyer.
Few expected Florida and Washington to possibly be part of the 2021-22 coaching carousel. Mullen had guided the Gators to an SEC East Division title in 2020 and three consecutive New Year's Six bowl appearances. In June, Mullen received a contract extension through 2026 and a raise. Lake is in only his second year as head coach after a successful run as Washington's defensive coordinator. He went 3-1 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
The problem for both, especially Mullen, is how quickly things have deteriorated. Beginning with the infamous shoe game against LSU last year, Florida is 2-8 in its past 10 contests against Power 5 opponents. Fairly or unfairly, Mullen's recruiting comment reinforces a perception that he doesn't enjoy recruiting, a major red flag at an upper-level SEC program. Mullen's interest in the NFL also is no secret. Ultimately, Florida needs to decide whether Mullen is capable of salvaging things with a reshaped staff in 2022. If the answer is no, the school should make the expensive decision to make a change.
Lake's status is uncertain, but if he keeps his job and gets a chance to fix the offense, a turnaround still seems possible in Montlake. The Donovan hire confused many coaches and others at the time, and predictably didn't work. Washington has the resources to hire a notable coordinator, although Lake's shaky status in 2022 could turn off some candidates. A concern at Washington is recruiting, which improved when Lake was an assistant but seems to be going the other way.
"You hired Jimmy to keep recruiting going, but they've completely fallen off the map," an industry source said.
Both Mullen and Lake need strong finishes to the season, especially in post-Thanksgiving rivalry games. Florida has dominated Florida State in its two meetings under Mullen, winning by a combined score of 81-31. Washington has won seven straight over Washington State in the Apple Cup, and Lake's defenses consistently flummoxed former WSU coach Mike Leach. Losses in those games could force the schools into changes.
One thing working in favor of both Mullen and Lake is that their respective athletic directors -- Florida's Scott Stricklin and Washington's Jen Cohen -- hired them (Mullen also worked under Stricklin at Mississippi State).
The latest at Virginia Tech, Washington State and the rest of the Pac-12
Virginia Tech's loss to Boston College provided further confirmation that Fuente's tenure is probably nearing its end. The only question is whether the school, like others in this carousel, will make a move sooner to get ahead of the recruiting cycle, or wait until Fuente's buyout drops. Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell is expected to be a strong candidate for Virginia Tech, although others such as Louisiana's Napier and Dykes could generate traction there, too.
Washington State's search likely will heat up soon, as the school gets some breathing room from the Nick Rolovich transition. Nevada coach Jay Norvell is expected to be a top WSU target. He improved to 7-2 on the season and is 29-15 since the start of 2018. Fresno State coach Kalen DeBoer and others, including Grinch, a former Washington State coordinator, could get consideration for the job.
The Pac-12 is set up to be the most active Power 5 league in the carousel. Washington State and USC already have openings, and coaches and their agents are watching Washington and several other schools around the league.
UCLA coach Chip Kelly begins a pivotal stretch this week against Colorado. The Bruins' season-opening win over LSU feels like a long time ago, and has been devalued by LSU's struggles. UCLA's closing schedule of Colorado (home), USC (road) and Cal (home) gives Kelly a chance to go 8-4 and likely secure his job for 2022. But any slip-up could lead to a change, especially from an athletic director (Martin Jarmond) who did not hire Kelly and made a successful hire (Jeff Hafley) at his last stop (Boston College).
The Arizona State coaching situation has been on the radar since the NCAA began investigating the program in June. Whether head coach Herm Edwards is directly implicated, he oversees all elements of the program. Edwards is also 67 and hasn't generated the on-field breakthrough ASU hoped for when it fired Todd Graham (46-32 at ASU). Few would be surprised if Edwards is not back in 2022. The questions are when would ASU make a change, and how the situation would impact athletic director Ray Anderson, who went all-in on hiring his friend Edwards to replace Graham.
Oregon's Mario Cristobal is the carousel's wild card
One of the most interesting coaches to watch in the upcoming cycle might not be going anywhere. Cristobal has Oregon right in the CFP mix, ranked No. 4 entering the second committee rankings. The Ducks continue to surge in recruiting and should have an even better team in 2022. Oregon also has arguably college football's top booster, Nike co-founder Phil Knight, in its corner.
But Cristobal could be in the mix for both LSU and USC, as well as Florida if it opens. While Miami coach Manny Diaz appears safe after three consecutive wins, there's still some motivation around the program for some type of change, whether it's Diaz and/or athletic director Blake James. Cristobal, a Miami native and former Hurricanes offensive lineman and assistant, undoubtedly would be a top target. But Miami's ability to finance an expensive transaction, which includes Cristobal's $9 million buyout at Oregon, is very much in question.
Still, Cristobal's continued success, appetite for recruiting and strong ties to Florida, the Southeast and now the West Coast, make him extremely appealing for almost any major job in the cycle.
Miami's Diaz aims for strong finish
Diaz has undoubtedly turned down the heat with three consecutive single-digit wins, including two against ranked opponents (Pitt, NC State). Diaz has found his quarterback of the future in freshman Tyler Van Dyke, who had been third string before being thrust into action and has 10 touchdown passes and only one interception during the win streak.
Despite some external desire for a coaching change, Diaz should be back in 2022 as long as Miami finishes strong with a seemingly manageable schedule. The Hurricanes close with Florida State (road), Virginia Tech (home) and Duke (road). A loss to FSU would undoubtedly sting for Diaz, but Miami should finish 7-5 at worst. There's momentum in recruiting and having an exciting young quarterback in Van Dyke really helps.
Sources say the status of athletic director Blake James is also worth monitoring. James offered tepid support for Diaz in an interview with my ESPN colleague Andrea Adelson before the win streak. Some around the program think Miami's inability to recapture its glory goes beyond the head coach's office, and the appetite for some type of change could end up impacting James more than Diaz, at least in the short term.
Group of 5 check-in
Three Group of 5 jobs are open, as both Akron and UMass recently joined UConn in searching for coaches. All three are among the most challenging FBS jobs, and there could be some candidate crossover for UMass and UConn because of their locations.
Other potential Group of 5 hot spots include New Mexico State, North Texas, Florida International, Temple, Tulsa, Ohio, Texas State, Bowling Green and Middle Tennessee. Some jobs are virtually guaranteed to open, such as New Mexico State, North Texas and FIU.
Tulsa is a likely vacancy, despite a spirited performance Saturday at No. 6 Cincinnati. Coach Philip Montgomery guided Tulsa to the AAC title game in 2020, but he's headed toward his fourth losing season in the past five.
Temple last month hired a new athletic director in Arthur Johnson. Owls coach Rod Carey is just 4-12 the past two seasons.
North Texas could be one of the more appealing jobs, as the school soon will join the AAC and boasts a strong combination of facilities and location. Coach Seth Littrell had consecutive nine-win seasons in 2017 and 2018, and seemed ticketed for a Power 5 job. But he's just 11-20 since.